READ OP! - Which game will sell more in Japan: Final Fantasy 16 or Xenoblade Chronicles 3?

[RennanNT]

I think XC3 will be ahead on the first 8 months (March being the last time we will get Japanese numbers, for a long time at least) aligned. I'm expecting XC3 to end within 600~800k, while FFXVI will go past 800k. I had my doubts about the later, but with a Sony exec saying there's 5 mi Japanese core gamers on PC, a PC late port should be enough to make sure of that.

I saw someone claim Xb2 sold 500k in Japan and my brain is going "wut?"

It can't be healthy to have such vaunted expectations on a midtier series.

You should look into where the numbers came from before dismissing them.

By December 2017, XB2 sold 160k physical (shipment based on sell through and stock numbers) and 100k digital (based on Nintendo report minus shipped units). In other words, a 38.5% digital ratio.

By the end of 2021, Media Create reported the game sold 300k physical. Almost doubling what it did since that first number.

And then there are several reasons to believe the digital ratio increased since then:
- The introduction of vouchers. XC2 physical costs ¥7.980, 2 vouchers cost ¥9.980. We've seen the effect of it in other games, and the expectation is for games priced that hight to have above 50% digital ratio.
- The game wasn't reprinted that often, pushing people to buy digital.
- It sold 30k physical in 2021 as a whole (Media Create numbers), meanwhile in just the first half of 2021 it outsold a game which sold 40k based on eShop rankings.

And, finally, the game didn't stop selling in 2021. It has been charting on eShop rankings almost every week ever since XC3 was announced.

 

[Nocturnal]

To me it's crazy that people expect a PS5 game in 2023 to hit 500K+ lifetime.. so far there is no signs that PS5 will ever reach that level of success in Japan

 

[Blue Monty]

To me it's crazy that people expect a PS5 game in 2023 to hit 500K+ lifetime.. so far there is no signs that PS5 will ever reach that level of success in Japan

We haven’t got any exclusive PS5 game with even 100k+ potential in Japan, I’m waiting on RE4R sales numbers before judging PS5 potential for big sellers. I don’t expect it at all to be able to have million sellers or anything close but there is a wide range PS5 software it can find itself from being almost impossible to sell 300k to being able to sell at least 650-750k

 

[Nocturnal]

Elden Ring hit 1M in Japan yet vast majority of sales are not on the PS5, that tells me everything I need to know - I don't think FFXVI will hit anywhere near 1M on the PS5 anytime soon.

 

[Tbone5189]

Elden Ring hit 1M in Japan yet vast majority of sales are not on the PS5, that tells me everything I need to know - I don't think FFXVI will hit anywhere near 1M on the PS5 anytime soon.

True but this is exclusive and we haven't see the full extent on what it can do. I agree with other things though ffviir sold 1.5mil during the start of covid a game that was suppose to do extremely well to begin with so 1mil seems high to me. It will clear 500k

 

[Nocturnal]

Exclusives won't sell well until demand World Wide slows down and prices normalize in Japan, until then a limited amount of people in Japan likely actually own a PS5, this will continue to be a problem for the foreseeable future.

 

[Arthoneceron]

Even preferring Xenoblade, there isn't many chances for the game surpass Final Fantasy XVI due to awareness of both brands, especially considering that the game will gain some heavy marketing from Sony, since it's exclusive.

The biggest deal with Xeno right now is being able to surpass Xenoblade 2 lifetime. If I could guess, Xenoblade 3 will sell around 500k lifetime in Japan, while Final Fantasy XVI won't have difficulties on selling that on it's first month, even considering the PS5 shortages there.

 

[Uniomni]

Damn, if I'm wrong I'm wrong.

I had no idea it was anywhere near that.

 

[mbolibombo]

I guess it will be much closer than it used to be - but it's such a big gap that I find it hard for XC3 to close it.

 

[Tbone5189]

Damn, if I'm wrong I'm wrong.

I had no idea it was anywhere near that.

when looking at retail only and long ago then yes 300k seems about right, but we follow data closely here and as been mentioned we know retail 300k roughly and the vouchers have made certain nintendo games to explode in sales. making digtial sales anywhere bewteen 20% and 60%.

good examples are.....

metroid dread (about 50% digital)
astrail chain (about 60% digital)

 

[ViniK]

If the PS5 situation in Japan (and worldwide) continues as it is now without improving, I think Xenoblade 3 will sell more than FFXVI. If it improves greatly I think FF would probably win in the long run but will open lower in it's first week than Xenoblade 3 LTD digital+retail at the time FF launches.
Voted Xenoblade 3 because I'm really feeling it.

 

[Tbone5189]

I guess it will be much closer than it used to be - but it's such a big gap that I find it hard for XC3 to close it.

FF entries before FFXIII part 2 was selling over 2mil each (closer to 3mil), the last 2 (XV and VIIR) sold both 1.5mil (or more?) on ps4, the latter at the start of covid. both games seem like they were suppose to be bigger than what they were (correct me if im wrong) and sold 1.5mil.

now looking at the ps5 situation, though i have no doubt XVI will sell over 500k the question is how much more will the ps5 user base let it sell overall. 1.7mil ps5 sold in japan and 3mil sold by the release next year doesnt paint the entire picture when we dont know how much of those actually stayed in japan/are active users/etc.

 

[PillFencer]

the last 2 (XV and VIIR) sold both 1.5mil (or more?) on ps4

XV shipped 1.2m and 50k of those were never bought by consumers

 

[Tbone5189]

XV shipped 1.2m and 50k of those were never sold to consumers

overall with digital? or we did not get them? i remember FFXV was overshipped by alot. but it makes sense. i wonder if ffxvi will be the same

 

[Blue Monty]

overall with digital? or we did not get them? i remember FFXV was overshipped by alot. but it makes sense. i wonder if ffxvi will be the same

In 2022 retailers have been really conservative with the stock they have been asking for PS5 games compared to 2021, if the situation continues I don’t expect FFXVI to have a FFXV moment

 

[PillFencer]

overall with digital? or we did not get them? i remember FFXV was overshipped by alot. but it makes sense. i wonder if ffxvi will be the same

It includes digital yes (and XBO)

By December 2018:
Physical sell-through - 1.045.000
Digital - 105.000
Physical shipped but not sold to consumers - 50.000

 

[Pancracio17]

Shame that we wont be able to tell unless Nintendo and Square give out PR. Digital is massive now.

LTD is going to be hard to tell too. FFXVI is going to have a bigger launch and slow down faster, but it also should sell for a lot longer for the obvious reason that the PS5 launched not too long ago. LTD is probably going to FFXVI, though first 6 month comparisons may be closer.

 

[Lelouch0612]

Shame that we wont be able to tell unless Nintendo and Square give out PR. Digital is massive now.

LTD is going to be hard to tell too. FFXVI is going to have a bigger launch and slow down faster, but it also should sell for a lot longer for the obvious reason that the PS5 launched not too long ago. LTD is probably going to FFXVI, though first 6 month comparisons may be closer.

We'll get shipments as of March 2023 without a doubt for XC3.

For FFXVI, Square should give WW and domestic PRs.

We should be able to tell which game performed better in its first few months.

 

[The_Liquid_Laser]

To me it's crazy that people expect a PS5 game in 2023 to hit 500K+ lifetime.. so far there is no signs that PS5 will ever reach that level of success in Japan

I think Monster Hunter could sell 500k+ if it released next year. Other than that I'd agree. Monster Hunter would motivate Japanese gamers to even pay scalper prices for a PS5. I don't think FF16 is a big enough game to have that kind of effect in significant numbers.

 

[ArkhamFantasy]

I'm not confident in the markets interest in games that don't have a Nintendo logo on them, also not confident about PS5 supply. I feel pretty good about XVIs critical reception based on the footage we've seen and the pedigree of the development team. I expect a significant drop from XV/VIIR, i think it would need Elden Ring like WoM to reach those numbers.

XB3 i think will be much more interesting, what's a bigger factor, being one of first big Switch games but on a small install base, or just being another good game on a system with a massive install base and a huge variety of games to compete with.

If you forced me to pick i'd say XVI, but i'm not confident about that at all.

 

[hroerekr]

There is a long time until FF16 release and Square won’t be afraid of postponing or even adding an emergency PS4 version if the situation doesn’t improve.

 

[Fisico]

There is a long time until FF16 release and Square won’t be afraid of postponing or even adding an emergency PS4 version if the situation doesn’t improve.

It's too late for a PS4 SKU, that ship has sailed

 

[hroerekr]

It's too late for a PS4 SKU, that ship has sailed

Let's assume they will call it now, but will keep in secret. A delay to Holidays 2023, or even 2024 would give a good time to port it.
It's not like what we saw is using any groundbreaking tech, so we can also assume a port is possible with the right effort and performance expectation.
There were rumours the game was almost ready last year. Maybe this delay is exactly to work with that port.

Unlikely. But not out of the realm of possibility.

 

[NediarPT88]

Let's assume they will call it now, but will keep in secret. A delay to Holidays 2023, or even 2024 would give a good time to port it.
It's not like what we saw is using any groundbreaking tech, so we can also assume a port is possible with the right effort and performance expectation.
There were rumours the game was almost ready last year. Maybe this delay is exactly to work with that port.

Unlikely. But not out of the realm of possibility.

Yoshida already touched on the PS4 subject in the interview he gave to Famitsu recently.

DeepL translation:

Famitsu: You mentioned at the beginning that the response to the trailer was better than you expected. How did you feel when you received the response in September 2020, when the first trailer was released?

Yoshida: At that point in time, we were developing the game with the launch of PlayStation 4 in mind, so we were worried that we could not raise the quality of the game. We could have pre-rendered the game at that point, but it would have been a waste of development man-hours, and we did not want to do that. We wanted to make a trailer that was an excerpt of the game experience as it is.

Spoiler: Original Famitsu quote

冒頭で「思ったよりもトレーラーの反響がよかった」とおっしゃっていましたが、最初のトレーラーを公開された2020年9月の段階での反響を受けたときはどう感じられましたか？

吉田あのタイミングではプレイステーション4での発売も視野に入れながら開発していたので、クオリティーを上げきれなかったのが悩みでした。あそこで一旦プリレンダリングにすることもできたのですが、開発工数的にもムダになりますし、それはしたくありませんでした。ゲーム体験として楽しめるものをそのまま抜粋してトレーラーを作りたいという思いがあったからです。

『FF16』吉田直樹プロデューサーインタビュー。バトルシステムや世界観について新情報が続々。 「オープンワールドじゃないからこそできる突き詰めたゲーム体験を」 | ゲーム・エンタメ最新情報のファミ通.com

2023年夏発売予定の『ファイナルファンタジー』シリーズ最新作『ファイナルファンタジーXVI』のインタビューをプロデューサーの吉田直樹氏に実施。開発状況はもちろん、ゲームシステムやバトル、世界観についてなどを深堀りして訊く。

www.famitsu.com

 

[Tokuiten]

POLL HAS CLOSED

In case of unexpected forum updates, I screenshotted the results.

Next date of interest: XB3 FW numbers

 

[ILikeFeet]

I don't think I voted at all, lol

it's too early for me to say, IMO. the state of PS5 could change by 16's launch. not by much but there could be enough systems still in the country to get closer to 1M sales physically and digitally

 

[PillFencer]

POLL HAS CLOSED

In case of unexpected forum updates, I screenshotted the results.

Next date of interest: XB3 FW numbers

Xenoblade 3 voting for Xenoblade 3

 

[AruanaRiva]

Lol. I miss voting this. But i am probably going to vote for FF16. I don't see how it can collapse that bad for 16 even when SE has been doing everything to make this game setting and style as unappealing to japan as possible there.

 

[ArkhamFantasy]

Lol. I miss voting this. But i am probably going to vote for FF16. I don't see how it can collapse that bad for 16 even when SE has been doing everything to make this game setting and style as unappealing to japan as possible there.

To be fair, basically any game without a Nintendo logo on it nowadays is unappealing lol.

I pointed out my concerns about moving away from Nomura's art style as well but people got mad that i phrased it that way.

 

[Lelouch0612]

To be fair, basically any game without a Nintendo logo on it nowadays is unappealing lol.

I pointed out my concerns about moving away from Nomura's art style as well but people got mad that i phrased it that way.

I saw you mention this point several times in the past but I don't think the game being Nintendo is enough (see Mario Strikers) or that not being a Nintendo title is a deal breaker in Japan (see countless example, including Momotaro or Rise).

 

[Fatih_656]

I saw you mention this point several times in the past but I don't think the game being Nintendo is enough (see Mario Strikers) or that not being a Nintendo title is a deal breaker in Japan (see countless example, including Momotaro or Rise).

I thought he/she meant the nintendo switch logo while reading it

 

[AruanaRiva]

To be fair, basically any game without a Nintendo logo on it nowadays is unappealing lol.

I pointed out my concerns about moving away from Nomura's art style as well but people got mad that i phrased it that way.

Ehh, i mean. Live A Live just did quite decent recently. And Marvelous title like Story of Seasons and Rune Factory(don't forget sakuna huge success as well) is all still doing really good in japan.

Of course having Nintendo logo is going to be big benefit as... well it is Nintendo there.

But upcoming games like Taiko, Fishing Spirits, Ultra Monter Rancher(This can be surprise hit especially with Shin ultraman doing great number this year.), or Bomberman 2 lol. I can see them all do good number.

 

[ArkhamFantasy]

I thought he/she meant the nintendo switch logo while reading it

Yes, but i'm also being a bit facetious.

Obviously there are successful games outside of Nintendo's eco system but Nintendo's grasp over Japan is unique and any game not on it is going to face an uphill battle, I'm also a big skeptic of the " designed to appeal to Japan", i'm sure there is some truth to that, but there's a wide variety of successful game types in the market and games that try to emulate them, regardless of quality, often fail. Success doesn't always mean you had a great strategy and failure doesn't always mean you're incompetent.

But I definitely agree with AruanaRiva that if there is a way to design a game for Japan, FFXVI is definitely not the way to do it. From a platform choice, marketing, or aesthetics point of view.

 

[Oregano]

We can probably safely say not Xenoblade 3 now anyway...

 

[Tbone5189]

We can probably safely say not Xenoblade 3 now anyway...

It’s one of those too early to judge even with a 110k op, for all we know the game could of still done 400k+ first week (ship+digital).

We have to wait intill Nov unfortunately to see how much it really did in japan

 

[AruanaRiva]

It’s one of those too early to judge even with a 110k op, for all we know the game could of still done 400k+ first week (ship+digital).

We have to wait intill Nov unfortunately to see how much it really did in japan

Still, it is not a good start there.

 

[PillFencer]

Still in the Xenoblade 3 camp

 

[Tbone5189]

Still, it is not a good start there.

Depends again imo. 2. Biggest questions are how much of the LE would of changed the sales? 50k+? 20k+? Example if it is 40k missing then that’s a 150k vs 97k for XC2, a 50% increase retail only.

The other question being digital as it’s definitely a game that could be over 60% digital in japan at least at launch. Both factors would put it at 300k sold FW vs 110k-120k FW XC2 had

Of course all speculation at the moment. Regardless we all had retail higher so disappointing it is

 

[Fiendslayer]

XB3 will grow over XB2, but the predictions here are whack as I said way before

 

[Tokuiten]

XB3 will grow over XB2, but the predictions here are whack as I said way before

We'll see

 

[Aleh]

I knew people would immediately change their tunes but I’m sticking to my lofty predictions

 

[Tokuiten]

So with current discussion about what FF16 will sell, I actually found that this thread could do with the addition of what Xenoblade 3 sold so we can have an immediate comparison by the time of FF16's release. XB3 numbers are as follows:

FW (per Famitsu): 112 728
First 8 Weeks (per Famitsu): 167 718
Famitsu 2022 Top 100: 178.270
LTD with Digital (per Nintendo FY report): 520 000

The MC CY 1000-numbers should be coming soon and then we'll have one more number to compare with next year. Anyway, these are the numbers. There's, ofc, the individual weeks #2 to #7 for XB3, but I think it's safe to assume that FF16 will beat the first 8 weeks of XB3 with its opening week. As per thread OP, let's keep any comparisons civil. That's it for now. Still a couple weeks to go.

 

[Fisico]

We already have top 100 for 2022 from Famitsu

23./00. [NSW] Xenoblade Chronicles 3 # <RPG> (Nintendo) {2022.07.29} (¥7.980) – 178.270 / NEW

 

[AruanaRiva]

FF16 should win without any problem. Even physical alone i predict FF 16 will do minimum 500k means with digital it will far outpace XC3 number in Japan over there.

 

[fiendcode]

FFXVI vs Pikmin 4 is probably the more compelling match up.

 

[Tbone5189]

FFXVI vs Pikmin 4 is probably the more compelling match up.

Not even close. Pikmin 4 will see growth over 3D, and that one will
Be a million seller

 

[Tokuiten]

FFXVI vs Pikmin 4 is probably the more compelling match up.

Purely by sales maybe, but ofc it's more interesting imo to compare games from the same genre.

 

[Aostia82]

Yeah, after the numbers came in, even if already being over 500k in Japan is a great result for XB3, it's pretty obvious that FFXVI is still on another level, even in Japan
Curious to see if the gap will shrink, compared to XB2 vs FFXV of course, and if this trajectory will continue going forward into Nintendo next gen

 

[ArkhamFantasy]

I dont see Xenoblade growing tbh. We have 3 highly rated mainline games, one came early in the gen boosted by lack of games on a red hot system and the other game came later with a massive install base and both did similar numbers. They also experimented with co-op and that didnt do anything either.

 

[AruanaRiva]

I dont see Xenoblade growing tbh. We have 3 highly rated mainline games, one came early in the gen boosted by lack of games on a red hot system and the other game came later with a massive install base and both did similar numbers. They also experimented with co-op and that didnt do anything either.

I dont remember XC2 and 3 have any coop feature there.