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READ OP! - Which game will sell more in Japan: Final Fantasy 16 or Xenoblade Chronicles 3?

Which of these two games will sell more in Japan?


  • Total voters
    131
  • Poll closed .

Tokuiten

Infected with 'Xenoblade'. 御免なさい🙇‍♀️
Member
FF16-vs-XB3-comparison-sales-Japan-01.png


DISCLAIMER: Read the entire OP before replying!

Several months ago, I asked a mod if it was okay to make this thread and we agreed that it was best to wait until the end of June, because by then there'd be more information about both Final Fantasy 16 and Xenoblade Chronicles 3. That happened and we got a nice trailer for FF16 as well as the XB3 Direct. Because XB3 is already releasing in about a month, it makes no sense to wait any longer with this prediction-thread, so here goes.

Having said that: This thread is a test balloon for future similar threads, in other words: At Install Base, we want to have level-headed, facts-based discourse, not console warrioring and fanboyism. Comparing these two popular jrpg-franchises makes sense, because they're from the same genre and one is a famous franchise on decline, the other a previously niche franchise on the upswing. It has been a recurring topic in our Media-Create threads, too, so this will be interesting to predict for that matter, too. If you think you cannot discuss the SALES comparison between these two franchises without resorting to fanboyish or personal attacks, please refrain from posting. Also please don't make any postings in the vein of "this thread shouldn't have been made", you are free to ignore this thread in such case.

And with the above out of the way: Final Fantasy 16 (Release Date: Summer 2023) vs Xenoblade Chronicles 3 (Release Date July 29th 2022), which will sell more in Japan? A lot of people have made very confident statements in the MC-threads before, now is the time to actually record these predictions so that we can later look back at the poll results and see how it holds up to reality. Feel free to post your specific sales predictions for both games, your reasons for why you think one will sell more than the other, or whatever you have to say in regards to these two games' sales. Important notice: For the purpose of the Poll, we will look at official shipment numbers. Feel free to post in this thread which game you expect to have a bigger First Week and bigger Media Create-sales, though :)

Looking forward to a civil sales prediction thread!

Official Shipment Numbers of the last Franchise Entry:

Final Fantasy XV: 1.2 mio
Final Fantasy VII Remake: 1.4 mio

Xenoblade 2: 0.31 mio (old number, see estimation below for more realistic up-to-date numbers, actual shipment closer to around 500k)
Xenoblade: Definitive Edition: 0.34

Franchise Sales as per Media-Create (all retail-only numbers, digital not included):

Final Fantasy 15: LTD
1.024.294 - FW 690.471 - HW Install Base at Release 3.745.023
Final Fantasy 7 Remake: LTD 973.609 - FW 688.442 - HW Install Base at Release 9.016.923
Final Fantasy 13: LTD 1.843.843 - FW 1.501.964 - HW Install Base at Release 4.276.480 (Last Time Charting, current LTD are likely higher)

Xenoblade Chronicles 2: LTD 296.164 (Estimation of XB2's actual LTD) - FW 97.732 - HW Install Base at Release 2.522.298
Xenoblade Chronicles: Definitive Edition: LTD 154.463 - FW 93.211 - HW Install Base at Release 13.754.707
Xenoblade Chronicles Wii: LTD 196.625 - FW 82.952 - HW Install Base at Release 10.364.020

Current HW Install Base:

Switch:
25.117.358
PlayStation 5: 1.703.184

Pros and Cons for each titles:

Final Fantasy 16:

+ traditionally larger franchise, has never sold below 1 million LTD since FF3
+ presentation and gameplay more cinematic/modern, easier to get into for people
+ brand recoginition on the level of Mario or Pokemon
+ medieval setting feels fresh and it's coming from FF14-devs who are praised for great story telling
- used to sell over 2 mio LTD, barely made it over 1 mio with FF15
- PlayStation 5 struggles to grow its IB, decline of PlayStation in general will hurt to some degree
- action-combat might be less appealing to Japanese audience
- no PS4-version will further limit sales potential

Xenoblade Chronicles 3:
+ franchise is in constant upwards sales trajectory
+ commonly said to have the best, most mainstream-compatible character designs since the franchise started on Wii
+ receiving full attention of Nintendo's marketing machinery
+ Pyra/Mythra in Smash did a lot for popularity
- despite opposite claims from Nintendo, requires knowledge of two prior games for full enjoyment, which might be too much for people
- doubling down on complex battle system
- while on an upswing, franchise is still niche overall compared to not only FF16, but also franchises like Persona, Tales of or Dragon Quest
- danger of legs being cut short by bigger releases in the coming months (especially the widely expected early 2023-release of BotW)

(The Poll will be closed after one week!)


 
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