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READ OP! - Which game will sell more in Japan: Final Fantasy 16 or Xenoblade Chronicles 3?

Which of these two games will sell more in Japan?


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Tokuiten

Infected with 'Xenoblade'. 御免なさい🙇‍♀️
Member
DISCLAIMER: Read the entire OP before replying!

Several months ago, I asked a mod if it was okay to make this thread and we agreed that it was best to wait until the end of June, because by then there'd be more information about both Final Fantasy 16 and Xenoblade Chronicles 3. That happened and we got a nice trailer for FF16 as well as the XB3 Direct. Because XB3 is already releasing in about a month, it makes no sense to wait any longer with this prediction-thread, so here goes.

Having said that: This thread is a test balloon for future similar threads, in other words: At Install Base, we want to have level-headed, facts-based discourse, not console warrioring and fanboyism. Comparing these two popular jrpg-franchises makes sense, because they're from the same genre and one is a famous franchise on decline, the other a previously niche franchise on the upswing. It has been a recurring topic in our Media-Create threads, too, so this will be interesting to predict for that matter, too. If you think you cannot discuss the SALES comparison between these two franchises without resorting to fanboyish or personal attacks, please refrain from posting. Also please don't make any postings in the vein of "this thread shouldn't have been made", you are free to ignore this thread in such case.

And with the above out of the way: Final Fantasy 16 (Release Date: Summer 2023) vs Xenoblade Chronicles 3 (Release Date July 29th 2022), which will sell more in Japan? A lot of people have made very confident statements in the MC-threads before, now is the time to actually record these predictions so that we can later look back at the poll results and see how it holds up to reality. Feel free to post your specific sales predictions for both games, your reasons for why you think one will sell more than the other, or whatever you have to say in regards to these two games' sales.

Looking forward to a civil sales prediction thread!

Franchise Sales as per Media-Create (all retail-only numbers, digital not included):

Final Fantasy 15: LTD
1.024.294 - FW 690.471 - HW Install Base at Release 3.745.023
Final Fantasy 7 Remake: LTD 973.609 - FW 688.442 - HW Install Base at Release 9.016.923
Final Fantasy 13: LTD 1.843.843 - FW 1.501.964 - HW Install Base at Release 4.276.480 (Last Time Charting, current LTD are likely higher)

Xenoblade Chronicles 2: LTD 296.164 (Estimation of XB2's actual LTD) - FW 97.732 - HW Install Base at Release 2.522.298
Xenoblade Chronicles: Definitive Edition: LTD 154.463 - FW 93.211 - HW Install Base at Release 13.754.707
Xenoblade Chronicles Wii: LTD 196.625 - FW 82.952 - HW Install Base at Release 10.364.020

Current HW Install Base:

Switch:
25.060.809
PlayStation 5: 1.694.003

(The Poll will be closed after one week!)


 
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