• Install Base's 1-year anniversary - Let's talk and celebrate!

    Check out the thread here!

  • Manga Sales | Discussion Thread

    We have created a thread to talk about manga sales. Check out the thread here!

READ OP! - Which game will sell more in Japan: Final Fantasy 16 or Xenoblade Chronicles 3?

Which of these two games will sell more in Japan?


  • Total voters
    131
  • Poll closed .

Tokuiten

Infected with 'Xenoblade'. 御免なさい🙇‍♀️
Member
FF16-vs-XB3-comparison-sales-Japan-01.png


DISCLAIMER: Read the entire OP before replying!

Several months ago, I asked a mod if it was okay to make this thread and we agreed that it was best to wait until the end of June, because by then there'd be more information about both Final Fantasy 16 and Xenoblade Chronicles 3. That happened and we got a nice trailer for FF16 as well as the XB3 Direct. Because XB3 is already releasing in about a month, it makes no sense to wait any longer with this prediction-thread, so here goes.

Having said that: This thread is a test balloon for future similar threads, in other words: At Install Base, we want to have level-headed, facts-based discourse, not console warrioring and fanboyism. Comparing these two popular jrpg-franchises makes sense, because they're from the same genre and one is a famous franchise on decline, the other a previously niche franchise on the upswing. It has been a recurring topic in our Media-Create threads, too, so this will be interesting to predict for that matter, too. If you think you cannot discuss the SALES comparison between these two franchises without resorting to fanboyish or personal attacks, please refrain from posting. Also please don't make any postings in the vein of "this thread shouldn't have been made", you are free to ignore this thread in such case.

And with the above out of the way: Final Fantasy 16 (Release Date: Summer 2023) vs Xenoblade Chronicles 3 (Release Date July 29th 2022), which will sell more in Japan? A lot of people have made very confident statements in the MC-threads before, now is the time to actually record these predictions so that we can later look back at the poll results and see how it holds up to reality. Feel free to post your specific sales predictions for both games, your reasons for why you think one will sell more than the other, or whatever you have to say in regards to these two games' sales. Important notice: For the purpose of the Poll, we will look at official shipment numbers. Feel free to post in this thread which game you expect to have a bigger First Week and bigger Media Create-sales, though :)

Looking forward to a civil sales prediction thread!

Official Shipment Numbers of the last Franchise Entry:

Final Fantasy XV: 1.2 mio
Final Fantasy VII Remake: 1.4 mio

Xenoblade 2: 0.31 mio (old number, see estimation below for more realistic up-to-date numbers, actual shipment closer to around 500k)
Xenoblade: Definitive Edition: 0.34

Franchise Sales as per Media-Create (all retail-only numbers, digital not included):

Final Fantasy 15: LTD
1.024.294 - FW 690.471 - HW Install Base at Release 3.745.023
Final Fantasy 7 Remake: LTD 973.609 - FW 688.442 - HW Install Base at Release 9.016.923
Final Fantasy 13: LTD 1.843.843 - FW 1.501.964 - HW Install Base at Release 4.276.480 (Last Time Charting, current LTD are likely higher)

Xenoblade Chronicles 2: LTD 296.164 (Estimation of XB2's actual LTD) - FW 97.732 - HW Install Base at Release 2.522.298
Xenoblade Chronicles: Definitive Edition: LTD 154.463 - FW 93.211 - HW Install Base at Release 13.754.707
Xenoblade Chronicles Wii: LTD 196.625 - FW 82.952 - HW Install Base at Release 10.364.020

Current HW Install Base:

Switch:
25.117.358
PlayStation 5: 1.703.184

Pros and Cons for each titles:

Final Fantasy 16:

+ traditionally larger franchise, has never sold below 1 million LTD since FF3
+ presentation and gameplay more cinematic/modern, easier to get into for people
+ brand recoginition on the level of Mario or Pokemon
+ medieval setting feels fresh and it's coming from FF14-devs who are praised for great story telling
- used to sell over 2 mio LTD, barely made it over 1 mio with FF15
- PlayStation 5 struggles to grow its IB, decline of PlayStation in general will hurt to some degree
- action-combat might be less appealing to Japanese audience
- no PS4-version will further limit sales potential

Xenoblade Chronicles 3:
+ franchise is in constant upwards sales trajectory
+ commonly said to have the best, most mainstream-compatible character designs since the franchise started on Wii
+ receiving full attention of Nintendo's marketing machinery
+ Pyra/Mythra in Smash did a lot for popularity
- despite opposite claims from Nintendo, requires knowledge of two prior games for full enjoyment, which might be too much for people
- doubling down on complex battle system
- while on an upswing, franchise is still niche overall compared to not only FF16, but also franchises like Persona, Tales of or Dragon Quest
- danger of legs being cut short by bigger releases in the coming months (especially the widely expected early 2023-release of BotW)

(The Poll will be closed after one week!)



 
Last edited:

Kanann

Schadenfreude enthusiasm
Member
I will fund Xenoblade 4 myself if it (3) somehow sale more than FF

vote 16
 

Phantom Thief

Life Will Change
Moderator
Pronouns
He/Him
Can you share numbers for Xeno2 and DE, as well as FFXV and 7R? My initial impulse was to say Xeno but even a highly diminished FF might still have the ability to outsell it in Japan, so numbers would be helpful
 
OP
OP
Tokuiten

Tokuiten

Infected with 'Xenoblade'. 御免なさい🙇‍♀️
Member
Gut reaction is FF16 but what did Xenoblade 2 sell?
Lass official retail figure is at about 300k, but trusted users have made an argument for the real, current figure being much higher than that, especially with digital included. Maybe some can find the posting that explained Xenoblade 2's sales, iirc it was re-posted not too long ago.

Can you share numbers for Xeno2 and DE, as well as FFXV and 7R? My initial impulse was to say Xeno but even a highly diminished FF might still have the ability to outsell it in Japan, so numbers would be helpful
See above. I'm not familiar with FF15/7R numbers, hopefully someone else can contribute here.
 

Leica

Member
Pronouns
he/him
Famitsu Sales: Week 49, 2016 (Nov 28 - Dec 04)
01./00. [PS4] Final Fantasy XV # <RPG> (Square Enix) {2016.11.29} (¥8.800) - 716.649 / NEW <60-80%>
20./00. [XB1] Final Fantasy XV # <RPG> (Square Enix) {2016.11.29} (¥8.800) - 3.315 / NEW <60-80%>

Famitsu Sales: Week 15, 2020 (Apr 06 - Apr 12)
01./00. [PS4] Final Fantasy VII Remake # <RPG> (Square Enix) {2020.04.10} (¥8.980) - 702.853 / NEW

I believe FF15 sold over a million physical in Japan a couple years ago but I don't have time to look up a decent source now.
 

Fisico

Moderator
Mod Post
We're locking the thread temporarily until the OP provides more information as it's pretty lacking on that front while it should be the fundations on what the discussion should be based on.


Thread reopened after being edited
Poll will run until 7 days before the release of Xenoblade 3
 
Last edited:
OP
OP
Tokuiten

Tokuiten

Infected with 'Xenoblade'. 御免なさい🙇‍♀️
Member
Sorry for the barebones thread at the beginning.

As you can see I added:
- shipment numbers
- Media Create-sales of both franchises latest releases
- current install base of hw
- pros and cons that might influence things (feels free to post about additional points!)

With everything done now, I hope everyone participates in the poll and let's have a civil discussion, too ^^
 

Jimmy Joe

Member
Pronouns
He/Him
It's not unimaginable that XC3 could outsell FF16 in Japan, especially since we're only talking about physical copies here—the software selling power of the PS5 in the region is genuinely abysmal, and FF has been on a downward slope for a very long time

However, given that we'll only ever have physical numbers as a point of comparison, I don't think XC3 can win this. The two immediate predecessors are at 300k and 1000k, respectively, and FF16 would need to fall off a cliff at the same time that XC3 explodes in popularity without skewing even more heavily digital than XC2 did. Either one of those is theoretically possible, but the latter feels fairly unlikely to me

Again: XC3 could win this, but I'd be surprised, and my first though is that FF16 will win out in the end
 
OP
OP
Tokuiten

Tokuiten

Infected with 'Xenoblade'. 御免なさい🙇‍♀️
Member
As someone who's been rooting for XB since the beginning, I'm taking my positive vibes into my prediction and voted for XB3 selling more.

Looking at the numbers more distancedly, I see four scenarios each game and I tried to visualize it:

FF16vs-XB3-Speculation-01.png


Whereas XB3 can increase, decase or sell basically on par with XB2, I think it's fair to say that it'd be the best case scenario for FF16 if it managed to sell as much as FF15. Its other options are decrease down to meet up with XB3 or decrease yet sell better than XB3, or decrease and sell worse than XB3. FF15 decreased by 600k units from FF13, so I used 600k LTD as FF16's worst possible outcome, being another decrease by 600k and basically halving FF15's LTD. Moderate decrease was chosen to be by 300k units, resulting in a 900k LTD number. For Xenoblade, XB2 increased from XB1 by at least 300k, going from cica 200k to 500k. I went with a maximum of 750k LTD, because it's only about 200k increase going from XB:DE and I don't expect XB3 to linearily increase by 300k again, so a 250k increase for best case-scenario seems fair. Its worst case decrease scenario I cannot see go down below 400k from XB2's estimated 500k, I think most would agree that any decrease would be a catastropgic result for XB3, it's not what most expect. There's also the "moderate increase"-scenario that I put at "only" 600k units.

Personally, and that's why I found this thread so exciting to make, I think there's a good chance that we'll get a really close sales fight between these two games. XB3 is about to show the franchise's true potential which should let it increase to the 750k I put in the graph, whereas FF16 really has a lot going against it, whether its the, at this point, historical decrease, the lack of a PS4-version and the fact that no PS5-exclusive so far got anywhere close to even the 750k that I put for the "meet up"-LTD. Interestingly, there's also a chance both games perform even worse than expected, but still will give each other a close fight comparatively.

For my prediction, I think 750k-900k is FF16's most likely sales range, whereaus XB3 is harder to gauge for how high up it can go. I can only see that I don't see it go below 600k LTD. FF16 is the clear favorite, but an upset is not as impossible as it would have been only a couple years ago and for that I'm taking the chance and vote for XB3. It's going to be exciting ^^
 
I am fairly confident XC3 will come out ahead just going by Media Create numbers. When it comes to shipped + digital, I think those numbers are going to be a lot closer. I voted XC3 to come out ahead, but I think it's going to be close.

I realize that before now, this wouldn't seem like a close comparison at all, but PS5 software numbers are really terrible, while Switch is doing amazing. The Switch is boosting a smaller RPG's sales up, while the PS5 is taking a top tier RPG down to mid-tier status sales wise.
 

Uniomni

Member
Pronouns
He/him
I'd be surprised if Xenoblade 3 outdoes Elden Ring Ps4, much less FF16.

As much as it's caught on, I don't think it's anywhere close to this point yet.

Also, it's a 3rd outing for XB on Switch vs the first outing of FF on Ps5.

I wouldn't like those odds at all my friend.
 

Fisico

Moderator
I am fairly confident XC3 will come out ahead just going by Media Create numbers. When it comes to shipped + digital, I think those numbers are going to be a lot closer. I voted XC3 to come out ahead, but I think it's going to be close.

So you are betting on a bigger digital share for FFXVI vs Xenoblade 3 ?
Xenoblade 2 digital share is currently somewhere around 40-50%, FFXV is way below that (it was sub 20% at launch and new copies could be bought for cheap rather quickly so it's unlikely that digital share got bigger afterwards)

Xenoblade is a tentpole Nintendo IP benefiting from vouchers (at launch) and holding its price (as usual with Nintendo games but fairly rare for a single player JRPG) which allowed its digital share to remains high and even increase with time (thanks to eshop providing better offers than new and even used copies)

FFVII R did have a bigger chunk of digital share, but it was partly due to a mix of high sellthrough and COVID (although Japan was less impacted by that it was still there nonetheless), and even with that it was still lower (30-40% maximum) than X2.

It should be noted that FFVII R also outperformed FFXV in Japan and is somewhere in the 1.5M range currently.
 
So you are betting on a bigger digital share for FFXVI vs Xenoblade 3 ?
Xenoblade 2 digital share is currently somewhere around 40-50%, FFXV is way below that (it was sub 20% at launch and new copies could be bought for cheap rather quickly so it's unlikely that digital share got bigger afterwards)

Xenoblade is a tentpole Nintendo IP benefiting from vouchers (at launch) and holding its price (as usual with Nintendo games but fairly rare for a single player JRPG) which allowed its digital share to remains high and even increase with time (thanks to eshop providing better offers than new and even used copies)

FFVII R did have a bigger chunk of digital share, but it was partly due to a mix of high sellthrough and COVID (although Japan was less impacted by that it was still there nonetheless), and even with that it was still lower (30-40% maximum) than X2.

It should be noted that FFVII R also outperformed FFXV in Japan and is somewhere in the 1.5M range currently.
Yeah, I think FF16 will have a higher digital % than XC3. I think FF7 Remake had a higher digital share than FF15 simply because it was released later. The % of digital purchases on the PS4 increased in general as the PS4 got older. That is just the trend for where Playstation games are heading. I think FF16's digital % will be at least as high as FF7 Remake.

On the other hand I have to wonder how readily available a physical copy of XC2 was after 2018. Digital may have been the only choice for a lot of buyers. Vouchers and digital discounts play a role in XC2's digital sales as well. But now that a lot of people have played XC2 gradually over the past few years, that gives them an opportunity to buy physical for XC3 around launch.
 
If FF7R is at ~1.5 million in Japan, that would suggest its digital share is ~33%, yes?
Just going off the numbers in the OP it looks like digital share of FF15 is approx. 15%. FF7 R is 30%. XC2 is 52%.

However, I think XC2 had a digital share of 38% at the end of 2017. Most sales after 2017 were digital which is what lead to it's high digital percentage.
 
If FF7R is at ~1.5 million in Japan, that would suggest its digital share is ~33%, yes?

Just going off the numbers in the OP it looks like digital share of FF15 is approx. 15%. FF7 R is 30%. XC2 is 52%.

However, I think XC2 had a digital share of 38% at the end of 2017. Most sales after 2017 were digital which is what lead to it's high digital percentage.
The reasons behind the high FF7R digital share were that the game was initially out of stock at retail and COVID.

XC3 will have a LE (untracked) + digital share over 50%.

The competition between FF and XC3 will happen in terms of shipments. Retail should easily favor FF16.
 

Jimmy Joe

Member
Pronouns
He/Him
I wasn't using that to try to make a point, I just wanted to be sure I was right off the top of my head

Though I do think this conversation can only really be about retail, because shipment data will be a long time coming (and may never come, in the case of FF7R)
 
I wasn't using that to try to make a point, I just wanted to be sure I was right off the top of my head

Though I do think this conversation can only really be about retail, because shipment data will be a long time coming (and may never come, in the case of FF7R)
Square communicated about launch shipment numbers for FF7R and we also have a figure beyond launch.
 

Jimmy Joe

Member
Pronouns
He/Him
They did? For Japan? With the physical/digital split and all? Well I'll be dipped. Shows me for not digging around for these things
 

BoktaiFan

Member
Pronouns
He/Him
I really like Xenoblade, but my gut still says FF16. Right now if I had to guess I'd say the numbers will be something like Xeno 3 ~600K and FF16 ~800K
 

EnergyDrink

Member
Pronouns
he/him
I sincerely don't know how FF16 could reach high sales in Japan with only a PS5 version. PS5 software sales are very low even taking into account the low install base. PS5 hardware sales are low too.

Perhaps Sony manages to produce more consoles until FF16 release and there are actually enough people in Japan willing to buy the hardware. But at the moment it seems PS5 hardware production will be still very limited for a foreseeable future.

It would be more fun to estimate sales if both games released on Switch.
 
OP
OP
Tokuiten

Tokuiten

Infected with 'Xenoblade'. 御免なさい🙇‍♀️
Member
I sincerely don't know how FF16 could reach high sales in Japan with only a PS5 version. PS5 software sales are very low even taking into account the low install base. PS5 hardware sales are low too.

Perhaps Sony manages to produce more consoles until FF16 release and there are actually enough people in Japan willing to buy the hardware. But at the moment it seems PS5 hardware production will be still very limited for a foreseeable future.

It would be more fun to estimate sales if both games released on Switch.
That is also part of my logic. Iirc, no PS5-title so far has even reached 200k LTD (right, @Nocturnal ?). So when people expect FF16 to sell more than XB3, they expect that suddenly there will appear a PS5-title that doubles, triples or even quadruples the sales of the previously best-selling game on the system.

Ofc, that COULD happen, but until it has happened, I feel quite good predicting XB3 to sell more. There's plenty of arguments to be made in favor of FF16, but historical PS5 sw-sales are a strong one against it.
 

Nocturnal

Member
Yeah at the moment the best selling titles on the PS5 have not even hit 150K physical sales and they might not even do it this year without aggressive bundles(looking at you GT7)

The realistic user base in Japan of PS5 is probably closer to 500K and Final Fantasy XVI would have to hope that supply improves enough on a WW scale for more units to end up in actual Japanese consumers. If it was launching this year I dont think the launch will even be able to hit 200K physical since that would be double of the biggest launch on the system so far.
 
OP
OP
Tokuiten

Tokuiten

Infected with 'Xenoblade'. 御免なさい🙇‍♀️
Member
Lol, so I'm keeping watch on upcoming Famitsu issues, because it'd be weird if there wasn't one with a Xenoblade 3 cover story just like they had for XB2, and as a collector I need that. So today, the feature story of the Famitsu issue releasing on July 28th was published and it's ... Final Fantasy 16 :D Now, the cover motif hasn't been shown, but if it was XB3, it probably would have been mentioned today, too. What coincidence, to put a FF16 feature story the day before XB3's release ^^

(It probably means nothing, I just found it funny and wanted to share that finding. Also, I still hope that one of the upcoming Famitsu issues will be about XB3. If anyone wants that issues, I'll post about it here or in the other XB3-thread)
 

Damage2

Member
Pronouns
He
We just had a lot of interviews about FFXVI, thats probably because of it.

I doubt Square is worrying about Xenoblade 3 hurting the sales of FFXVI
 

Uniomni

Member
Pronouns
He/him
Lol, so I'm keeping watch on upcoming Famitsu issues, because it'd be weird if there wasn't one with a Xenoblade 3 cover story just like they had for XB2, and as a collector I need that. So today, the feature story of the Famitsu issue releasing on July 28th was published and it's ... Final Fantasy 16 :D Now, the cover motif hasn't been shown, but if it was XB3, it probably would have been mentioned today, too. What coincidence, to put a FF16 feature story the day before XB3's release ^^

(It probably means nothing, I just found it funny and wanted to share that finding. Also, I still hope that one of the upcoming Famitsu issues will be about XB3. If anyone wants that issues, I'll post about it here or in the other XB3-thread)
Tbh, FF dwarfs Xenoblade in Japan (and the rest of the world) so it's not surprising that a magazine that's probably planned out weeks in advance might have saved the last monthly issue for the biggest story.

If Xb3 does get a cover, expect somewhere in August.
 

Tbone5189

Member
We just had a lot of interviews about FFXVI, thats probably because of it.

I doubt Square is worrying about Xenoblade 3 hurting the sales of FFXVI

They need to worry or FF will not be a top 5 jrpg franchise in Japan!
just kidding it could be number 5 after Pokemon/Fire Emblem/Persona/Xenoblade
 

Damage2

Member
Pronouns
He
They need to worry or FF will not be a top 5 jrpg franchise in Japan!
just kidding it could be number 5 after Pokemon/Fire Emblem/Persona/Xenoblade
Not just Xenoblade but Persona and FE bigger than FF?

Have you forgotten that FFVIIR sold 1.4-1.5M in Japan?
 

Arynio

Hatcher
Member
I'm performing a blossom dance. It's going to be a tough battle, but I voted XC3. Against the odds! We choose to fight!

I really like Xenoblade, but my gut still says FF16. Right now if I had to guess I'd say the numbers will be something like Xeno 3 ~600K and FF16 ~800K
XC2 is all but guaranteed to be comfortably above 600k by now. I'm expecting further growth from XC3 (perhaps ~800k). Although the game probably won't have legs as large as XC2 it might still enjoy continued sales thanks to the season pass, possible Drake improvements, possible future Smash support, and possible spinoffs such as a Musou.

For FFXVI I'm expecting further decline from FFXV to ~700-800k.

@Tokuiten is there any timeframe for the comparisons or just lifetime sales? I'm asking because I'm not sure we'll ever get the final tallies for Japan for either game. XC2 has likely doubled already its last reported numbers. FFXVI will likely have a larger digital share than FFXV and keep selling with discounts unless overshipped. I fear there will be eternal debates if both games end up in the same range but we don't get further updates.
 
OP
OP
Tokuiten

Tokuiten

Infected with 'Xenoblade'. 御免なさい🙇‍♀️
Member
@Tokuiten is there any timeframe for the comparisons or just lifetime sales? I'm asking because I'm not sure we'll ever get the final tallies for Japan for either game. XC2 has likely doubled already its last reported numbers. FFXVI will likely have a larger digital share than FFXV and keep selling with discounts unless overshipped. I fear there will be eternal debates if both games end up in the same range but we don't get further updates.
Unfortunately, that will always be a problem, so it's best to be patient :D

I can tell you what I'm going to do:

- compare FW sales
- compare sales of first month
- compare sales after a year
- look back 2-3 years later for the 'final' LTD

(all of the above starting from FF16 as it releases later)

Depending on how it goes, FW and month numbers might tell us a lot already.
 

Aleh

«Last Hope»
Member
Pronouns
He/Him
Xenoblade 3 will sell more with physical + digital. Physical only? Not sure, but that’s not impossible either.
 

Aostia82

Member
I think that, if FFXVI will stay PS5 exclusive...it will still sell more. but this cross (FFXVI and XB3) will close the gap
 
Yeah it really could fall both ways imho.

One side, the old aging Lion, on the other, a strong challenger with a lot of momentum.

It will clearly define or redine the hierarchy in Japan for JRPGs.
 

BTB123

Can't wait for TotK
Member
I can see XC3 selling over 800k with digital. I'm not sure if FFXVI can reach that if it's stays PS5 exclusive.
 

Z-Z0

Member
If FFXVI was still releasing this year, I'd probably have voted XB3, but with an addtional year to grow the PS5 userbase FFXVI will come out on top, I think.
Can't wait to see how XB3 performs, though.
 

Uniomni

Member
Pronouns
He/him
The numbers I'm seeing here and elsewhere are looney tunes status to me.

I saw someone claim Xb2 sold 500k in Japan and my brain is going "wut?"

It can't be healthy to have such vaunted expectations on a midtier series.

If Xb2 sold 500k in Japan does that mean Kirby FL has sold 1.5 million so far?
 

Fisico

Moderator
The numbers I'm seeing here and elsewhere are looney tunes status to me.

I saw someone claim Xb2 sold 500k in Japan and my brain is going "wut?"

It can't be healthy to have such vaunted expectations on a midtier series.

If Xb2 sold 500k in Japan does that mean Kirby FL has sold 1.5 million so far?

You'd do well to follow Japan sales trend closer then, Xenoblade 2 is definitely above 500k and Kirby FL is probably getting close to 1.5M (we've yet to get exact numbers but it's somewhere between 1-1.5M)
 

Aostia82

Member
The numbers I'm seeing here and elsewhere are looney tunes status to me.

I saw someone claim Xb2 sold 500k in Japan and my brain is going "wut?"

It can't be healthy to have such vaunted expectations on a midtier series.

If Xb2 sold 500k in Japan does that mean Kirby FL has sold 1.5 million so far?

it's pretty safe to assume Xenoblade 2 sold 500k+ in Japan (retail + digital)
 

Blue Monty

Member
Pronouns
he/him
The numbers I'm seeing here and elsewhere are looney tunes status to me.

I saw someone claim Xb2 sold 500k in Japan and my brain is going "wut?"

It can't be healthy to have such vaunted expectations on a midtier series.

If Xb2 sold 500k in Japan does that mean Kirby FL has sold 1.5 million so far?
XC2 digital share is much bigger than Kirby one, even before vouchers. It is always charting in the top 50 of eShop almost 5 years after release, 500k is too low even in fact 600k minimum is expected.
 

Tbone5189

Member
The numbers I'm seeing here and elsewhere are looney tunes status to me.

I saw someone claim Xb2 sold 500k in Japan and my brain is going "wut?"

It can't be healthy to have such vaunted expectations on a midtier series.

If Xb2 sold 500k in Japan does that mean Kirby FL has sold 1.5 million so far?

Others have posted but yeah xc2 is over 500k and can add up to 600k lifetime.

A 500k minimum, and 800k-900k maximum is definitely the range unless your tbone which means you go higher because why not
 
Top Bottom