PS5 Top 11 "Active Console Volume" Nations As Of March 2022 + PC Game Sales + More

[My Tulpa]

I just don’t see how Sony gets anywhere close to ps4 numbers

But hardware sales really don’t matter, they just need to find away to stop hemorrhaging 3rd party sales through their PSN storefront this gen. Dumping 1st party software on pc will certainly help combat that with a new revenue/profit source

 

[Blue Monty]

I just don’t see how Sony gets anywhere close to ps4 numbers

But hardware sales really don’t matter, they just need to find away to stop hemorrhaging 3rd party sales through their PSN storefront this gen. Dumping 1st party software on pc will certainly help combat that with a new revenue/profit source

Do you have any source of 3rd party PSN sales declining? I haven't seen anything about it anywhere and it even seems it's growing thanks to MTX/GaaS increasing also 3rd party revenue

 

[Astrogamer]

I just don’t see how Sony gets anywhere close to ps4 numbers

But hardware sales really don’t matter, they just need to find away to stop hemorrhaging 3rd party sales through their PSN storefront this gen. Dumping 1st party software on pc will certainly help combat that with a new revenue/profit source

It should generally be possible for the PS5 to clear 100 million if they can get the supply issue sorted out before too long. I'd say the time limit for this issue would be by holiday next year. If it gets any longer than that, Xbox will have fully seized momentum and they would hemorrhage the key 3rd party sales that they only have because they are the dominant platform. Playstation is still the market leader for parts of Europe and several regions like the Middle East and maintaining a relatively dominant position over Xbox will keep it as a default console for many major titles.

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Consumers had a lot more time with the console in PS5 case than PS4 , this means they also had a lot more time to spend money.

My bad, I knew the graphic mentioned "Unprecedented China Demand", but I missed that all those stats were China-specific. So yeah, that makes sense.

 

[reksveks]

Did some maths hopefully correctly.

So assuming a 4% Global Console CAGR and 3 years to hit 50% Market Share

That would need Sony to grow at 8% annually and the rest of the market to basically be flat or grow at 1%

For Sony to hit 53%, they would need 10% growth and the rest to decline about 1.3% a year

If the CAGR was closer to 8% (the old number which I don't really trust), the other players could grow at 2% whilst Sony would need to grow at 13% annually.

Anyone spot something off?

 

[enpleinjour]

I just don’t see how Sony gets anywhere close to ps4 numbers

But hardware sales really don’t matter, they just need to find away to stop hemorrhaging 3rd party sales through their PSN storefront this gen. Dumping 1st party software on pc will certainly help combat that with a new revenue/profit source

PS5 has greater demand than the PS4. Its outselling XB more than PS4 did in UK/US at the CY21 point. FY22 is going to be key. If Playstation hits 18M, I don't see how XB can keep up considering its relative absence in EU and Asia. I primarily expect PS5 > PS4 being held up by growth in emerging markets and taking marketshare away from Xbox.

 

[enpleinjour]

Did some maths hopefully correctly.

So assuming a 4% Global Console CAGR and 3 years to hit 50% Market Share

That would need Sony to grow at 8% annually and the rest of the market to basically be flat or grow at 1%

For Sony to hit 53%, they would need 10% growth and the rest to decline about 1.3% a year

If the CAGR was closer to 8% (the old number which I don't really trust), the other players could grow at 2% whilst Sony would need to grow at 13% annually.

Anyone spot something off?

Isn't it closer to 4 years: CY22, 23, 24, 25. They expect something near 30% growth for next FY. A publisher acquisition would make them very close to the target. I'm also wondering if they've taken into account exchange rates and how.

At 0.01 USD-¥, their revenue next year is $36B. 0.009, $32.4B. 0.0079 (atm), $28.4B. Its a huge variance.

 

[reksveks]

Isn't it closer to 4 years: CY22, 23, 24, 25. They expect something near 30% growth for next FY. A publisher acquisition would make them very close to the target. I'm also wondering if they've taken into account exchange rates and how.

At 0.01 USD-¥, their revenue next year is $36B. 0.009, $32.4B. 0.0079 (atm), $28.4B. Its a huge variance.

Let me do 4 years but yeah the currency is interesting but given its about global market share not sure it would impact the numbers. Could be off on that.

 

[reksveks]

Updated for 4 years

 

[reksveks]

Shipment Guidance

Thought I would plot this out

So 18m this year, would get them to 37.3m (close the gap by 300k) at the end of the FY and then using their graph, so they would have to sell 10.1m between March 2023 and Sept 2023 to catch up. (Highest so far for that period is 7.5m during 2017)

Please call out any wrong numbers.

 

[Man God]

As usual the data proves both that Japan matters and that it is still seemingly not enough to put any resources into it compared to the rest of the developed world.

 

[awng782]

Thought I would plot this out

So 18m this year, would get them to 37.3m (close the gap by 300k) at the end of the FY and then using their graph, so they would have to sell 10.1m between March 2023 and Sept 2023 to catch up. (Highest so far for that period is 7.5m during 2017)

Please call out any wrong numbers.

Isn't Sony going off of fiscal year for their numbers? It seems like they expect PS5 to surpass PS4 launch-aligned by the end of its 4th fiscal year (3/2024 for PS5 vs 3/2017 for PS4).

Assuming Sony hits their 18M FY3/2023 target, this means they expect PS5 to ship 22.7+M during FY3/2024 to catch up to the PS4's FY3/2017 cumulative total of 60M.

 

[awng782]

Has anyone posted this?

Average consumer spending on PS4 vs PS5 launch-aligned.

No wonder why Sony is jumping into the GaaS bandwagon.

 

[fiendcode]

Game sales being down 21% is surprising though. Does that scale to the lowered aligned installed base?

 

[Welfare]

Game sales being down 21% is surprising though. Does that scale to the lowered aligned installed base?

PS5 is -14% to PS4. The explosion of F2P on console probably explains this

 

[awng782]

Game sales being down 21% is surprising though. Does that scale to the lowered aligned installed base?

This is average consumer spend per (connected) drvice, not total spend.

As @Welfare mentioned, it probably has to do with the rise of F2P console gaming, as well as the increased focus on GaaS, which emphasizes spending more time/money playing the same games.

 

[Blue Monty]

I wonder if it is also related to the decrease on number of AAA releases and rise of deep digital sales/indies which have a much lower price point, that would also make the average of spending on games lower

 

[enpleinjour]

Has anyone posted this?

Average consumer spending on PS4 vs PS5 launch-aligned.

No wonder why Sony is jumping into the GaaS bandwagon.

This isn't really a Sony thing, rather this is what is reflected by the most popular multiplayer titles. Gone are the days where multiplayer fans need to buy a yearly game or sequel.
The most popular, most played games across all platforms, Fornite, Apex, Genshin Impact, Warzone, Rocket League, Destiny are all F2P.

 

[Blue Monty]

Two Spider-Man games that's how they are going to get 300m in revenue.

 

[HK-47]

Two Spider-Man games that's how they are going to get 300m in revenue.

Two Spider-Man games and Uncharted. Plus now rumors about Sackboy in addition to Returnal.

 

[SoonyXboneUhh]

Two Spider-Man games and Uncharted. Plus now rumors about Sackboy in addition to Returnal.

Yeah that makes a lot more sense that way.

A few months after the launch of Spider-Man 2, Sony will have sold 50m units in the franchise already. Just in the span of less than a decaded.
Most successful IP by a huge margin. Not even Uncharted, TLOUS or GT come close.

 

[Remember_spinal]

i still wonder whether or not they will launch a multiplayer game day and date this FY.

Whether its Helldivers 2 (not a huge seller probably) or The Last of Us Factions (potentially major seller)

 

[Grimstat]

Two Spider-Man games that's how they are going to get 300m in revenue.

That doesn't seem low to anyone? Two Spiderman games, plus Uncharted, Returnal, Sackboy and whatever else that'll be released (I'm expecting a day and date GaaS).

 

[awng782]

That doesn't seem low to anyone? Two Spiderman games, plus Uncharted, Returnal, Sackboy and whatever else that'll be released (I'm expecting a day and date GaaS).

Expectations for very late ports should be lowered accordingly.

Also, Returnal and Sackboy won't sell all that much if anything at all on PC since they didn't sell all that much on PS5.

 

[Welfare]

That doesn't seem low to anyone? Two Spiderman games, plus Uncharted, Returnal, Sackboy and whatever else that'll be released (I'm expecting a day and date GaaS).

God of War ASP: $26.98
Days Gone ASP: $26.64
Horizon ASP: $25.02

These games are being sold at cheap amounts so unit sales have to be gargantuan to compensate. 300M from just straight game sales is 11.5M assuming Uncharted, Spider-Man, and the rest are being sold at the ASP the above 3 are ($26).

There most likely is a GAAS coming out cause I don't think Sony can hit that $300M otherwise.

 

[enpleinjour]

We already have confirmation that there are two GaaS games coming. Most likely TLOU Factions and Twisted Metal.

 

[MarcoP90]

Has anyone posted this?

Average consumer spending on PS4 vs PS5 launch-aligned.

No wonder why Sony is jumping into the GaaS bandwagon.

When looking at game software purchases comparisons between PS4 and PS5, we should also take into account how there are several titles on PS5 with higher MSRPs than on PS4 (mainly Sony first-party games but titles like FIFA, NBA 2K and Call of Duty as well).

 

[Bryank75]

Japan is in third place.......
what games are being played in japan?
The games seem to not have really been bought there.
Is most of the PS5 market in japan Free to play?

There are many games like Genshin Impact, Guilty Gear and all the big Namco Bandai games that you might consider multiplats would all be mostly played on PS4/5 there.

GT7 would also be rather big there and Horizon would sell respectable enough IMO. It's a patchwork.

No one game would compete on the sales charts right now with massive games on Switch.

 

[AshenOne]

Expectations for very late ports should be lowered accordingly.

Also, Returnal and Sackboy won't sell all that much if anything at all on PC since they didn't sell all that much on PS5.

The thing is that PS5 at the time returnal released, didn't have a broad and a large enough playerbase, it was $70 and it was rogue like. These factors worked against Returnal selling less on it.

PC can be different ball game depending how far Returnal is released from its release date and at what price? If its $50 then it might actually really well considering the Rogue like genre is having a boom on PC right now and the crowd to buy it is just a lot more than PS5's launch player base.

 

[KR_EP]

The thing is that PS5 at the time returnal released, didn't have a broad and a large enough playerbase, it was $70 and it was rogue like. These factors worked against Returnal selling less on it.

PC can be different ball game depending how far Returnal is released from its release date and at what price? If its $50 then it might actually really well considering the Rogue like genre is having a boom on PC right now and the crowd to buy it is just a lot more than PS5's launch player base.

It was also a single player game at launch with issues around the save function, since then its been supported with free updates included online co-op that should help it sell over time.

 

[AshenOne]

It was also a single player game at launch with issues around the save function, since then its been supported with free updates included online co-op that should help it sell over time.

Yeah I forgot about Co op. Co op is a big deal on PC these days when it comes to player numbers.