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Predictions for Super Mario Bros Wonder Lifetime Sales in Japan?

SMBW will Sell in Japan lifetime .....

  • Under 4mil

    Votes: 8 8.9%

  • 4mil+

    Votes: 22 24.4%

  • 5mil+

    Votes: 24 26.7%

  • 6mil+

    Votes: 26 28.9%

  • 7mil+

    Votes: 6 6.7%

  • 8mil+

    Votes: 4 4.4%
  • Total voters
    90
Tbone5189

Tbone5189

Member
Today's WONDERful topic will be about lifetime sales for Super Mario Bros Wonder in Japan! Let's a go Begin......



SUPER-MARIO-BROS-WONDER-GRA-NINTENDO-SWITCH-Wydawca-Nintendo


To point out the obvious SMBW is releasing at the end of nsw life, so possibly the legs wont be as ever lasting as some other nsw titles (Ex: MK8D / RFA / ACNH). But with an active install base, potentially be opening (600k+?) What are the expectations for this game lifetime?

Below is the 2D series games examples

[NES] SMB - 6.81mil
[NDS] NSMB - 6.49mil
[Wii] NSMBW - 4.67mil
[NES] SMB3 - 3.84mil
[SNES] SMW - 3.55mil

And lastly, Below is Lifetime sales in Japan and as you can tell nsw software is amazing
Top 25 best-selling games in Japan (updated mar 2023)

  1. [NSW] Animal Crossing: New Horizons - 10.71m
  2. [GB] Pokémon Red/Green - 8.22m
  3. [NSW] Pokemon Scarlet/Violet - 7.35m
  4. [GB] Pokémon Gold/Silver - 7.30m
  5. [NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe 7.18m
  6. [NSW] Super Smash Bros Ultimate - 6.96m
  7. [NES] Super Mario Bros. - 6.81m
  8. [NSW] Splatoon 3 - 6.54m
  9. [NDS] New Super Mario Bros. - 6.49m
  10. [3DS] Animal Crossing: New Leaf - 5.95
  11. [NSW] Pokémon Sword/Shield - 5.86m(+)
  12. [NDS] Pokémon Diamond/Pearl - 5.85m
  13. [NDS] Pokémon Black/White - 5.54m
  14. [GBA] Pokémon Ruby/Saphire - 5.40m
  15. [NDS] Animal Crossing: Wild World - 5.35m
  16. [PSP] Monster Hunter Freedom 3 - 5.30m
  17. [NSW] Splatoon 2 - 5.11m (+)
  18. [NDS] Brain Age 2 - 5.10m
  19. [Wii] New Super Mario Bros. Wii - 4.67m
  20. [3DS] Pokémon X/Y - 4.56m
  21. [NSW] Monster Hunter Rise 4.41m(+)
  22. [NDS] Dragon Quest IX - 4.40m
  23. [PSP] Monster Hunter Freedom Unite - 4.25m
  24. [GB] Tetris - 4.24m
  25. [GB] Super Mario Land - 4.19m

Post your thoughts for lifetime sales in Japan, and also predictions will be posted below!
----------
 
Last edited:
The Switch has sold over 30 million units in Japan, and should have another decent holiday. I think it’s reasonable to believe that 1 in 4 Switch owners will pick up Wonder. Therefore I’ll predict lifetime sales of 8 million. 5 million by the end of 2023.
 
Tbone5189 said:
Today's WONDERful topic will be about lifetime sales for Super Mario Bros Wonder in Japan! Let's a go Begin......



SUPER-MARIO-BROS-WONDER-GRA-NINTENDO-SWITCH-Wydawca-Nintendo


To point out the obvious SMBW is releasing at the end of nsw life, so possibly the legs wont be as ever lasting as some other nsw titles (Ex: MK8D / RFA / ACNH). But with an active install base, potentially be opening (600k+?) What are the expectations for this game lifetime?

Below is the 2D series games examples

[NES] SMB - 6.81mil
[NDS] NSMB - 6.49mil
[Wii] NSMBW - 4.67mil
[NES] SMB3 - 3.84mil
[SNES] SMW - 3.55mil

And lastly, Below is Lifetime sales in Japan and as you can tell nsw software is amazing
Top 25 best-selling games in Japan (updated mar 2023)

  1. [NSW] Animal Crossing: New Horizons - 10.71m
  2. [GB] Pokémon Red/Green - 8.22m
  3. [NSW] Pokemon Scarlet/Violet - 7.35m
  4. [GB] Pokémon Gold/Silver - 7.30m
  5. [NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe 7.18m
  6. [NSW] Super Smash Bros Ultimate - 6.96m
  7. [NES] Super Mario Bros. - 6.81m
  8. [NSW] Splatoon 3 - 6.54m
  9. [NDS] New Super Mario Bros. - 6.49m
  10. [3DS] Animal Crossing: New Leaf - 5.95
  11. [NSW] Pokémon Sword/Shield - 5.86m(+)
  12. [NDS] Pokémon Diamond/Pearl - 5.85m
  13. [NDS] Pokémon Black/White - 5.54m
  14. [GBA] Pokémon Ruby/Saphire - 5.40m
  15. [NDS] Animal Crossing: Wild World - 5.35m
  16. [PSP] Monster Hunter Freedom 3 - 5.30m
  17. [NSW] Splatoon 2 - 5.11m (+)
  18. [NDS] Brain Age 2 - 5.10m
  19. [Wii] New Super Mario Bros. Wii - 4.67m
  20. [3DS] Pokémon X/Y - 4.56m
  21. [NSW] Monster Hunter Rise 4.41m(+)
  22. [NDS] Dragon Quest IX - 4.40m
  23. [PSP] Monster Hunter Freedom Unite - 4.25m
  24. [GB] Tetris - 4.24m
  25. [GB] Super Mario Land - 4.19m

Post your thoughts for lifetime sales in Japan, and also predictions will be posted below!
----------
Click to expand...
Great list.
Why some games have a (+)?
6,2 millions copies for Super Mario Wonder is my guess.
 
KtSlime said:
They brought out Gakki for the advertising, Nintendo is serious.

www.nintendo.com

スーパーマリオブラザーズ ワンダー : 新垣結衣さんのプレイ映像公開中 | Nintendo Switch | 任天堂

新垣結衣さんが『スーパーマリオブラザーズ ワンダー』をプレイ
www.nintendo.com www.nintendo.com
Click to expand...
I recognize her from the TV show she starred in with her now-husband Gen Hoshino. Now I find out that they were both part of Nintendo advertising (her as the face of AC and Ring Fit, him as part of Mario's 35th anniversary) and theirs was dubbed the "Nintendo Marriage" on Twitter as a result.

Tangent aside, with what I know of Yui Aragaki now after looking into it, I guess it's a big deal like you say.
 
I might be reading it wrong, but amazon US says wonder is out of stock? Looks like the game is going to have a massive launch.
 
i'm thinking 4.8 to 5.5mm. SMBW will have a bombastic launch for sure but, i don't really see its legs being as strong as others in the series since it's releasing right at the end of the Switch's lifetime.

granted, if the next Switch is backwards compatible and maybe has some sort of upscaling for old games as icing on the cake, i can see it doing closer to 5.5, maybe getting up to 6.

i do not see it surpassing NSMB on the DS, though.
 
I may be naive, but I feel like platforming games isn't as popular in terms of market share. I doubt it would have the massive success it had on the Wii/DS and previous consoles. However, gaming as a whole has increased in popularity over the years so my guess is that it evens it out. 5 million lifetime.
 
my guess would be around 4.5 million sales, with a plus minus of circa 300.000 copies according to the games wom.
I think the multiplayer aspect could bring really big legs for the game.
i include also the Drake portion in this prediction as I expect the next console to be backwards compatible.
 
I voted for 6 but it's almost impossible to say lifetime, as this might be an evergreen on the next Switch.

Considering how successful they were with ports on the Switch, I expect this to be something they gonna focus heavily on moving forward and this is likely gonna be one of the first ported over.
 
Gimmick said:
I voted for 6 but it's almost impossible to say lifetime, as this might be an evergreen on the next Switch.

Considering how successful they were with ports on the Switch, I expect this to be something they gonna focus heavily on moving forward and this is likely gonna be one of the first ported over.
Click to expand...
Port doesn’t seem necessary when Switch 2 will likely be BC. They can patch in better performance, doesn’t seem like a game that they would do a big upscale for on a new system.
 
Mekanos said:
Port doesn’t seem necessary when Switch 2 will likely be BC. They can patch in better performance, doesn’t seem like a game that they would do a big upscale for on a new system.
Click to expand...
True, especially with this one, as it does look so good already.
 
6-7M if solely switch, highest selling game in japan history if including switch 2 and beyond re-releases/ports

Mekanos said:
5 million sounds about right. The DS was such a beast in Japan that I don’t know if this will top that.
Click to expand...
switch will surpass DS sales, many switch games have been highest selling titles, 2D mario being one of the biggest nintendo franchises means the chances of wonder being also a record breaker a big possibility
 
Damage2 said:
Are we still expecting more that 5M in Japan?
Click to expand...
I am. I don't see it stop selling when the Switch 2 launches. This launch right now, around 900k with digital, is just slightly below what I expected previously.
 
Damage2 said:
Are we still expecting more that 5M in Japan?
Click to expand...

I kno a few people now are expecting 4-5mil now but I'm still on track with saying 7mil+

This games legs will be important and even without an explosive launch, this games legs will be abnormal imo going in this holiday
 
Copy and pasting my comment from the MC thread to add additional context for NSMB series comparisons:

Something I think is important to mention that I’m surprised hasn’t been brought up yet is the fact that both NSMB and NSMBW were Thursday launches in Japan. Meaning that they had an additional day of sales, 4 vs Wonder’s 3. With that in mind, I think it’s very likely that Wonder actually had and has a bigger launch than all the NSMB games.
Click to expand...
 
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Mario Wonder's multiplayer is gonna do well for its word of mouth, and it's the perfect Christmas gift for kids with a Switch.

Pikmin 4 closing in on a million physical and I assume gonna be a little under 2 million with digital by the end of the year in Japan. Mario Wonder has a good chance of doubling that. I think 3.5 to 4 million is reasonable.
 
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