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Pokémon Scarlet & Violet Sales Potential

Fatih_656

I want a Doner kebab
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The new switch is most likely planned to be backwards compatible.So I don't understand why new switch may cut off legs from splatoon 3 or pokemon.Has anything like this happened on ps5 or xbox series?
On the contrary, I think it is likely to increase sales(legs) with increasing performance/graphic.If there is a free update I think it is most likely to increase sales.(very unlikely for pokemon, but if they plan to support splatoon 3 for a long time, a free update may come)
 
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Aleh

Aleh

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How we feeling folks

- 4 player online co-op
- free exploration not constricted by story order
- more traditional battles
 

awng782

Member
Feeling good about my 25-27M prediction, assuming it gets a DLC expansion in 2023 (like the Sword/Shield Expansion Pass in 2020).
 
Launch quarter shipments will definitely be very close to 20m.

If the co-op stuff works well and the game has a great reception, then it would have a snowballing effect on its sales.
 
It won’t struggle (much) to reach 25M LT.
I’m sticking to this except take the much and LT out lol. It won’t struggle (at all ) to reach 25M.

I wouldn’t be surprised if this gives the original Pokémon RGB a run for its money or even surpasses it. We will see.
 
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MysticGon

Member
It will have a higher first week than Sword & Shield but the legs depends entirely on what Nintendo does with the next hardware.

They can ride the soft descent to 3 more good years but I'm predicting new hardware by 2024 so there is a chance it can cut short it's full potential unless it of course Game Freak decides give the new hardware some time to get it's act together.
 

Nocturnal

Member
Launch quarter shipments will definitely be very close to 20m.

If the co-op stuff works well and the game has a great reception, then it would have a snowballing effect on its sales.

Yeah if they hit it out of the park its definitely going to cause major waves

With a big expansion in 2023 it would be another title heading for 30M on the Switch

Its all about WoM we know marketing will be big and there are plenty of changes to the formula to look forward too

Compared to 3DS Pokémon co is taking more risks in diversifying the mainline titles looking forward how this one is received I didn't care too much about Sword / Shield so still haven't made up my mind about buying this one personally
 

ILikeFeet

Member
How we feeling folks

- 4 player online co-op
- free exploration not constricted by story order
- more traditional battles
I'm curious to see how co-op works. if all you do is just run around without anything to do, that's gonna fall off quickly

open world is always a bonus, but I hope they make it worth it with good locations to find and good rewards
 

jacsoncr

Banned
Sequence of low effort posts, trolling behaviour, thread derail; 3rd warning in less than 3 months
9 Million First Week, 28 Million Lifetime
 

Torpoleon

Member
Definitely see it having a bigger first week than SWSH, which we know was 6 million. I could see SV doing about 8 million its first week and then about 18 million by the end of 2022. I see it easily crossing 25 million in its lifetime, especially since I imagine there will be DLC in 2023 that will extend its life, like the DLC did for SWSH. Whether or not it surpasses SWSH will remain up in the air. History is certainly not on SV's side, but the Switch as a whole is a different beast from past Nintendo systems. Would be crazy if both sets of games reach 30m in their lifetime, but I could see both narrowly missing that mark when the dust settles.
 
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Aleh

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Latest news, a 14 minutes overview of the game and new features revealed like Picnics:



This is going to be massive
 
I am extremely bullish on S/V potential. Waiting a bit more to make my prediction but records are about to be broken.
 

m051293

Member
Launch Weekend Sell-Through (aka Week 1):

SwSh

JP: 2M - Link
US: 2M - Link
EUR + ROTW: 2M (derived from WW minus JP/NA)

WW: 6M - Link

Arceus

Regional Unknown
WW: 6.5M - Link

Right now for SV launch weekend, I'm expecting:

JP: 4.0M
NA: 3.5M
EUR: 2.0-2.5M
ROTW: 0.5-1.0M

WW: 10.0-11.0M Launch Sell Through

Expect Launch Quarter Shipments of 20.0M flat, and Nintendo will report sell-through in Feb (through Jan) in the vicinity 16-18M.
 

Torpoleon

Member
Launch Weekend Sell-Through (aka Week 1):

SwSh

JP: 2M - Link
US: 2M - Link
EUR + ROTW: 2M (derived from WW minus JP/NA)

WW: 6M - Link

Arceus

Regional Unknown
WW: 6.5M - Link

Right now for SV launch weekend, I'm expecting:

JP: 4.0M
NA: 3.5M
EUR: 2.0-2.5M
ROTW: 0.5-1.0M

WW: 10.0-11.0M Launch Sell Through

Expect Launch Quarter Shipments of 20.0M flat, and Nintendo will report sell-through in Feb (through Jan) in the vicinity 16-18M.
I would not be surprised if SV reached 20 million shipped by the end of the year. Personally expecting 18-20m. Should definitely open higher than SWSH given the higher install base (BW & SM also opened higher than DP & XY respectively.) I could also see it being 10m in the launch weekend. I'm just going to put the range at 8m to 10m, so either way it would be the highest for a Switch game and probably the highest for any Nintendo game.
 

cw_sasuke

Member
Am I the only one who sees SV selling less than sword and shield long term?. This is the the 5th main Pokemon game and the 2nd new generation on the platform
I would agree with you if SV doesnt receive post launch support of the level of Sw/Sh and Drake isnt backwards compatible.
But both of these things are quite unlikely.
 

Tbone5189

Member
Am I the only one who sees SV selling less than sword and shield long term?. This is the the 5th main Pokemon game and the 2nd new generation on the platform

Being 5th mainline doesn't matter, only 2nd generation should for comparison, especially when Let's go and BDSP were remakes.

That said SV isn't in th esame position as other games before it (BW or SM) and its launch is gonna be huge and unlike SM legs will be there as a third version wont cut it off and we have launch support afterwards.

In fact I might predict SV launch this quarter alone might actually be close to that of SwSh lifetime 🤔
 

AruanaRiva

I will never doubt Harada-sama ever again!!!
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SV i feel is going to hit 26m. If the multiplayer really works. That will be revelation for the series.
 

Wockio

Member
Game is starting to leak. Nothing major so far aside from a couple of unnanounced evolutions but according to the person who got the game, it runs quite smoothly unlike what we heard from previews.

Twitter user: How is the performance, does the game feel laggy?
Leaker: no, it's perfect

Should help with WoM. Source: Twitter thread (spoilers, obviously)
 

BTB123

Can't wait for TotK
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Pokémon Sun/Moon outsold X/Y outside Japan. S/V is looking to outsell Sw/Sh in Japan and I see no reason for it not to do the same outside of Japan too.
So now I think there's a good chance of S/V outselling RGB. Sw/Sh I still think will end up around 27M though.
 

Necroxid

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I think we're looking at a 10m launch sales debut (3 days), preorders are just enormous everywhere and just insane in Japan, where I think Pokémon SV will break Splatoon 3's record (3.45m in 3 days), IMO 4.5m minimum there
 

LoneRanger

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With all the hype, and if it has a good reception + good post launch support I think 25-30 million is very possible.

With domestic sales around 8 millions.
 

Kalmanta

Member
I think we're looking at a 10m launch sales debut (3 days), preorders are just enormous everywhere and just insane in Japan, where I think Pokémon SV will break Splatoon 3's record (3.45m in 3 days), IMO 4.5m minimum there
4.5M minimum? That would be humongous, it’s like the next Avengers movie grossing 450M OW. At one point the market should have reached its limit in terms of opening sales, especially when we’re looking from unit-based performance rather than the money that can be generated in a certain timeframe.
 

Torpoleon

Member
4.5M minimum? That would be humongous, it’s like the next Avengers movie grossing 450M OW. At one point the market should have reached its limit in terms of opening sales, especially when we’re looking from unit-based performance rather than the money that can be generated in a certain timeframe.
To be fair, Splatoon 3 did 3.45 million in the same timeframe 2 months ago.

4.5 million during the holidays for the largest media franchise in the world doesn't seem that out of reach in comparison.
 

PillFencer

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To be fair, Splatoon 3 did 3.45 million in the same timeframe 2 months ago.

4.5 million during the holidays for the largest media franchise in the world doesn't seem that out of reach in comparison.
So since Pokémon is the largest media franchise in the world, Scarlet/Violet beating the current biggest global game launch (GTA5) by 30% minimum shouldn't seem that out of reach either?

Splatoon 3 being the record holder by a landslide and still not coming anywhere close to 4.5m is exactly why such a prediction for Scarlet/Violet seems unattainable
 

NiteJohn

Member
After the latest episode, S/V is likely to have a boost in sales. A lot of people who might not have bought it will now. Similar to S/M in 2016.
 
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Aleh

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After the latest episode, S/V is likely to have a boost in sales. A lot of people who might not have bought it will now. Similar to S/M in 2016.
They broadcast a part of it on billboards in Tokyo, it might actually catch the attention of some lapsed players
 

NiteJohn

Member
They broadcast a part of it on billboards in Tokyo, it might actually catch the attention of some lapsed players
I will never not be in awe of the brand synergy that TPC has. There will be books written about Ishihara and Pokémon as an example of good brand management.
 

Koni

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Even with production issues plaguing the series, the anime really had to go and put out THAT episode the week before Scarlet and Violet launch, huh? XD

Pokémon’s brand synergy is insane, holy shit. The games might suffer for it but you can’t deny it’s gotten them where they are.

They‘ve managed to capture lighting in a bottle twice and then use said lighting to power their houses.
 

Torpoleon

Member
Starting to wonder if all the news about bugs & glitches is going to impact this game's legs in the long run. It should still sell ~20m by the end of the year, but whether or not in can surpass SWSH, 30m or RGB is still up in the air. Really wish Nintendo would have released PLA this holiday and saved SV for next holiday (and obviously this means those 2 sets of games would've been announced much later than they were). PLA would have more polish & content and SV would have more polish as well. Can't imagine what Nintendo could have for holiday 2023 that would be bigger than Pokemon anyways.
 

Koni

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The legs for Scarlet and Violet are going to be interesting to follow to see just how the WoM will be (I think it'll be mostly positive at the end of the day, with the bugs and glitches not putting a big dent in sales), but for now, if Japan, Singapore, and the UK are of any indication, this launch is going to be absolutely enormous. It'll probably have the same record-breaking numbers as Splatoon 3 in Japan with a much bigger worldwide launch as well.

We're defintiely going to get PR at some point.
 
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m051293

Member
Launch Weekend Sell-Through (aka Week 1):

SwSh

JP: 2M - Link
US: 2M - Link
EUR + ROTW: 2M (derived from WW minus JP/NA)

WW: 6M - Link

Arceus

Regional Unknown
WW: 6.5M - Link

Right now for SV launch weekend, I'm expecting:

JP: 4.0M
NA: 3.5M
EUR: 2.0-2.5M
ROTW: 0.5-1.0M

WW: 10.0-11.0M Launch Sell Through

Expect Launch Quarter Shipments of 20.0M flat, and Nintendo will report sell-through in Feb (through Jan) in the vicinity 16-18M.

Ha, not bad! Lower end of range but still! This is just behind MW2-2022 (maybe tied) and making the top openings by unit sales of all time, with GTA V at #1 in the vicinity of 15M. >$600M gross revenue in 3 days.
 

BTB123

Can't wait for TotK
Member
Holy shit! That's huge!!! Biggest launch of an exclusive game ever.
 
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