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PlayStation 5 sales surpass 40m worldwide as of July 16, 2023

the 25 million target is shipments right?

the gap between sell thru and shipment will continue to increase to healthier levels over the next year, which in theory kinda shaves a couple million off that target. like, they’ll want to ship a good 2+ million surplus this year above alignment with actual sell thru, in order to finally have a significant amount floating around in the chain. with that + current very strong trajectory in mind i think it’s a pretty done deal idk
 
the 25 million target is shipments right?

the gap between sell thru and shipment will continue to increase to healthier levels over the next year, which in theory kinda shaves a couple million off that target. like, they’ll want to ship a good 2+ million surplus this year above alignment with actual sell thru, in order to finally have a significant amount floating around in the chain. with that + current very strong trajectory in mind i think it’s a pretty done deal idk
They already have that 2+ million surplus. That's kind of the issue with 25 million. Shipping at 5 million at Quarter (and 10 in Q3) will turn out to a 4+ million surplus in Q4 and that makes a 5 million shipment a bit much. Possible but, it's putting too much stock on retailers that will hold off on buying more. As we head into the Switch 2 launch, we'll enter the 2017-2018 scenario where Playstation kind of stalls. It was still good in 2017 but, not the record-breaking pace it was before.
 
the 25 million target is shipments right?

the gap between sell thru and shipment will continue to increase to healthier levels over the next year, which in theory kinda shaves a couple million off that target. like, they’ll want to ship a good 2+ million surplus this year above alignment with actual sell thru, in order to finally have a significant amount floating around in the chain. with that + current very strong trajectory in mind i think it’s a pretty done deal idk
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Sony has already admitted they held forecasts "for morale" before.
Citation needed. Usually internal targets (which higher than the public forecasts) are held internally for “morale” reasons.

There wasn't even an attempt at adjustment (bar the upwards adjustment late last FY), meanwhile tiny little Nintendo somehow managed to do it constantly and not be far off.
Companies are reluctant to update guidance downwards, as downward revisions impact stock price, so they only do a downwards revision in a scenario where they 100% believe they are not going to make those targets.

These manufacturing and logistics issues weren't completely unforeseeable, Sony literally just didn't bother.

Lol. It’s hard to take your commentary seriously with takes like this. If you feel Sony didn’t just bother (which is an outrage take), that would be gross negligence, and you should go file a shareholder lawsuit. Although you’re on your own as it seems like no other shareholder group feels the same way.
 
Citation needed. Usually internal targets (which higher than the public forecasts) are held internally for “morale” reasons.
It's coming from the CFO quote from a while back and he did basically say that.

"But I want to keep the previously-held goal of selling 22.6m units next year unchanged as cutting it now would lower the motivation of the team."


Also I wouldn't throw stones about taking commentary seriously when you suggest filing a shareholders lawsuit lmao
 
Citation needed. Usually internal targets (which higher than the public forecasts) are held internally for “morale” reasons.

Companies are reluctant to update guidance downwards, as downward revisions impact stock price, so they only do a downwards revision in a scenario where they 100% believe they are not going to make those targets.
Lol. It’s hard to take your commentary seriously with takes like this. If you feel Sony didn’t just bother (which is an outrage take), that would be gross negligence, and you should go file a shareholder lawsuit. Although you’re on your own as it seems like no other shareholder group feels the same way.
In FY21 and 22 it was clear well ahead of time they'd miss targets months in advance, we had multiple analyst and industry articles on their targets not being viable due to production constraints and component shortages. This wasn't at all unforeseeable, frankly the entire industry saw it coming, trying to frame it as such is simply ignorant of what the situation actually was and just superficially laying blame on Covid and the Invasion of Ukraine feels like scapegoating when the issues were more complex than that.

Again, Nintendo made continual adjustments, nearly quarterly, as they navigated global supply and logistics challenges. But then Nintendo's always been much more transparent and consistent with their investors than Sony's PS division, even if to their detriment.

Although I was wrong, SIE did do one late downward adjustment (by 3.3m) in Feb 22 that they met for the year the following month. So that's something.
 
I don't even think it's a debate. It'll easily blow past the PS4 this Holliday. Spider-Man 2 alone will do it. PS5 sales this Holliday are going to be crazy. I wouldn't be surprised if it has passed PS4 launch aligned before 2023 even ends
 
I don't even think it's a debate. It'll easily blow past the PS4 this Holliday. Spider-Man 2 alone will do it. PS5 sales this Holliday are going to be crazy. I wouldn't be surprised if it has passed PS4 launch aligned before 2023 even ends

Spider-Man 2 and FF7 Rebirth a couple months later is a nice one-two
 
Shipping at 5 million at Quarter (and 10 in Q3) will turn out to a 4+ million surplus in Q4 and that makes a 5 million shipment a bit much.

We get sell through and PS5 sell throughs a lot. Should be 3.5-4M Q1 for instance.
Also 3-4M at peak years in the channel is not surprising. PS4 had 2.6-3.7M at its peak years and PS5 is epxected to hit higher peaks.

As we head into the Switch 2 launch, we'll enter the 2017-2018 scenario where Playstation kind of stalls. It was still good in 2017 but, not the record-breaking pace it was before.

Since when?
PS4 did very well at holding a high bar 2016-2018:
  • 2016/7 = 20M
  • 2017/8 = 19M
  • 2018/9 = 17.8M
I don't even think it's a debate. It'll easily blow past the PS4 this Holliday. Spider-Man 2 alone will do it. PS5 sales this Holliday are going to be crazy. I wouldn't be surprised if it has passed PS4 launch aligned before 2023 even ends

Could even pass it by Q2 but definitely will by Q3.
 
They already have that 2+ million surplus. That's kind of the issue with 25 million. Shipping at 5 million at Quarter (and 10 in Q3) will turn out to a 4+ million surplus in Q4 and that makes a 5 million shipment a bit much. Possible but, it's putting too much stock on retailers that will hold off on buying more. As we head into the Switch 2 launch, we'll enter the 2017-2018 scenario where Playstation kind of stalls. It was still good in 2017 but, not the record-breaking pace it was before.
PS4 never stalled in 2017 - it shipped nearly as much in FY3/2018 as it did in FY3/2017 (19M vs 20M), and CY 2017 sell-through was actually a bit higher than CY 2016 sell-through (20.2M vs 17.8M). Even in 2018, PS4 remained quite steady and only declined a bit from 2017.

I do think PS5 could be more frontloaded than PS4 since a lot of big titles that arrived late in the PS4 generation (Horizon, Spider-Man, God of War, Fortnite, Warzone, Apex Legends, etc) have gotten sequels much earlier in the PS5 generation.
 
PS4 never stalled in 2017 - it shipped nearly as much in FY3/2018 as it did in FY3/2017 (19M vs 20M), and CY 2017 sell-through was actually a bit higher than CY 2016 sell-through (20.2M vs 17.8M). Even in 2018, PS4 remained quite steady and only declined a bit from 2017.

I do think PS5 could be more frontloaded than PS4 since a lot of big titles that arrived late in the PS4 generation (Horizon, Spider-Man, God of War, Fortnite, Warzone, Apex Legends, etc) have gotten sequels much earlier in the PS5 generation.
GTA 6 will be the biggest one for this gen when it finally releases. Gonna easily be the biggest launch of the gen when it drops
 
GTA 6 will be the biggest one for this gen when it finally releases. Gonna easily be the biggest launch of the gen when it drops
It will be the biggest launch ever, GTAV on a declining PS3/360 sold about 16.6m units on 1st week.

And that was 10 years ago, a new GTA will sell no less than 20m units first week.
 
GTA 6 will be the biggest one for this gen when it finally releases. Gonna easily be the biggest launch of the gen when it drops
Oh it will definitely be enormous, though it probably won't launch until like 2025 when the PS5 should be hitting saturation.
 
PS4 never stalled in 2017 - it shipped nearly as much in FY3/2018 as it did in FY3/2017 (19M vs 20M), and CY 2017 sell-through was actually a bit higher than CY 2016 sell-through (20.2M vs 17.8M). Even in 2018, PS4 remained quite steady and only declined a bit from 2017.

I do think PS5 could be more frontloaded than PS4 since a lot of big titles that arrived late in the PS4 generation (Horizon, Spider-Man, God of War, Fortnite, Warzone, Apex Legends, etc) have gotten sequels much earlier in the PS5 generation.
Stalling as in not growing. I would have said fall or decline if I meant it seriously dropped. It peaked early with shipments and never hit that peak again, though it was close as you said. I point out the 2017-2018 period because launch aligned, this is where it falls behind the Switch. We also have to consider it was propped up by the battle royale phenomenon in 2017-2019 that doesn't seem likely to repeat with Marathon and such so, we can expect harsher drops aside from the effect of GTA VI.
Like they can ship 25 million, but, it comes with the caveat that FY 3/2025 probably shouldn't see more that 18 million. With the Pro version and Switch 2, we're also going to see the used market rise that will hamper demand. It will certainly get to 100 million but, getting to the 120 million mark will have a similar situation as the PS4.
 
Not to cross-topic, but as an observation, between Sony, and Nintendo it really seems like Microsoft is the odd one out, when it comes to hardware sales. I wonder if they can ever really become a true puller, or are they just going to live on as a software platform kind of thing.

The Xbox is less than 2:1 with an unusually stubborn outside of US sales rate helping hold it up from falling further behind. after a horrible 2022 with no games, and starting this year so far with one major release that was banned.

If the month and the months around Starfield release connect with the game actually being good, hyped, and spreading wom you're going to see Xbox sales turn around compared to where they are now in the last 4 months of the year. Possibly last 5 given how they do the sports stuff in August, and likely they'll have an additional Starfield hype showcase then.
 
The Xbox is less than 2:1 with an unusually stubborn outside of US sales rate helping hold it up from falling further behind. after a horrible 2022 with no games, and starting this year so far with one major release that was banned.

If the month and the months around Starfield release connect with the game actually being good, hyped, and spreading wom you're going to see Xbox sales turn around compared to where they are now in the last 4 months of the year. Possibly last 5 given how they do the sports stuff in August, and likely they'll have an additional Starfield hype showcase then.
Didn't Microsoft only project a small growth in hardware for the next quarter? You'd think they'd really start pumping out hardware for Starfield's release which is what makes that so odd
 
Sony has already admitted they held forecasts "for morale" before. There wasn't even an attempt at adjustment (bar the upwards adjustment late last FY), meanwhile tiny little Nintendo somehow managed to do it constantly and not be far off.

These manufacturing and logistics issues weren't completely unforeseeable, Sony literally just didn't bother.

I work in a field where we rely on electronics components. There was literally no way when we could predict when we could ship certain products. Like not within 6 months. Only now is it starting to become more predictable, but then there was Ukraine and pricing that went through the roof. I wouldnt want to be the purchasing manager responsible right now tbh.
 
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