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Ah thanks! Yeah that was a pretty steep price cut in Japan then too.
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People fear a Wii U style stumble with the Switch successor, when the more realistic and likely scenario is a 3DS style mess-up
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Ah thanks! Yeah that was a pretty steep price cut in Japan then too.
Anyways, regarding Switch 2 Japan pricing, I think pricing it at $1 = ¥100 like with the current Switch will basically be impossible barring a miracle.
With that being said, Japan is important for Nintendo and I do think the value of the Yen will recover to some degree going into next year, so I think Nintendo will price it at something around $1 = ~¥125 (i.e. $400 = ¥50000).
With that being said, Japan is important for Nintendo and I do think the value of the Yen will recover to some degree going into next year, so I think Nintendo will price it at something around $1 = ~¥125 (i.e. $400 = ¥50000).
3DS launch was a mess but indeed the biggest reason why 3DS sold less than GBA was sales after 2011.
After the disatrous early months 3DS succesfuly recover following the price cut and did pretty good numbers in holidays.
However 2012 3DS numbers were really not good outside Japan despite 3DS being at "the right price".
Nintendo released a very cheap 3DS model late 2013 (2DS) and despite that 3DS sales saw a huge collapse in 2014.
After the disatrous early months 3DS succesfuly recover following the price cut and did pretty good numbers in holidays.
However 2012 3DS numbers were really not good outside Japan despite 3DS being at "the right price".
Nintendo released a very cheap 3DS model late 2013 (2DS) and despite that 3DS sales saw a huge collapse in 2014.
Actually, I would argue that Switch 2 has the potential to be a new kind of success, in contrast to or maybe in comparison with the Playstation 5.
Developers have a remarkable incentive to continue making Switch compatible games, in the same way Playstation 4 games are still being made today. Switch 2 will not reach 150 million units for a long time, if ever. Switch 2's super power is that it can run games Switch cannot *AND* will be able to run Switch games. This gives developers a choice whether they target Switch 1 or Switch 2. Developers will have the largest incentive to target Switch 1, while having upgradability to Switch 2. This is the best of both worlds.
This is very similar to PS4/PS5, however Switch 2 will have an edge over PS5 in this respect: there are a flood of games that won't work well on Switch. So there will not be any kind of drought in Switch 2 software. There is a lot of pent-up supply of software to be unleashed on Switch 2, whereas PS5-only games is a vast empty plane.
This is the edge you will see play out in the market and how the Switch 2 *should* perform extremely well and potentially much better than Playstation 5.
Edit: Therefore, I expect Switch 2 sales to be less than Switch 1. It will have less exclusive software, while the Switch 1 library will continue to grow throughout the life of the Switch 2. Switch compatibility will be a big marketing point for any new Switch software going forward.
Developers have a remarkable incentive to continue making Switch compatible games, in the same way Playstation 4 games are still being made today. Switch 2 will not reach 150 million units for a long time, if ever. Switch 2's super power is that it can run games Switch cannot *AND* will be able to run Switch games. This gives developers a choice whether they target Switch 1 or Switch 2. Developers will have the largest incentive to target Switch 1, while having upgradability to Switch 2. This is the best of both worlds.
This is very similar to PS4/PS5, however Switch 2 will have an edge over PS5 in this respect: there are a flood of games that won't work well on Switch. So there will not be any kind of drought in Switch 2 software. There is a lot of pent-up supply of software to be unleashed on Switch 2, whereas PS5-only games is a vast empty plane.
This is the edge you will see play out in the market and how the Switch 2 *should* perform extremely well and potentially much better than Playstation 5.
Edit: Therefore, I expect Switch 2 sales to be less than Switch 1. It will have less exclusive software, while the Switch 1 library will continue to grow throughout the life of the Switch 2. Switch compatibility will be a big marketing point for any new Switch software going forward.
The succ was never going to be priced the same as the Switch given what we know (and he also knows) about it's tech, so I don't see the point of that last line from Zhuge's part.
And the changes in the economy are already affecting the Switch just like the other 2, they may not be losing money on the hardware like the other 2 are, but they are definitely making less per unit in many regions where the economy has varied wildly (Japan in this case), yet Nintendo hasn't changed the price in any single region, showing that that's the price point at which they believe people will find it's the right value for the product, and that management are not desperate to please it's investors, I don't expect this to change with the succ.
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Videogame/dedicated hardware was a risky business.
The worst-selling generation to Nintendo was the 3ds/Wiiu. What happening there? Nintendo launching two dedicated hardware with features that don´t have mass appeal. The second reason was three/four different pipelines at the same time, this problem brought a big gap in first-party output; Nintendo's focal mover was first-party output, without a bunch of games and hoping third-party will fill the gap we have the droughts, and the potential buyers reduced. And without mass appeal reducing the quantity of each tier of consumers. And the limitation of the library reduces the buzz and continuous attention in public space. It was constant and shortened the usual video game life cycle¹, the 3ds have some more life because Pokemon itself was a behemoth. 3ds in the top 5 has 3 Pokemon main games. Nintendo DS has only one in 5th, and Nintendo Switch has none ( and the biggest top 5 overall in both systems). 3ds was a Pokemon machine, without an expanded audience and reducing the former games.
Does the 3ds repentance occur? I don´t think so. Nintendo may make big mistakes. Yes, but different, very different. One pipeline and Pokemon need to be at risk to make a 3ds level of sales.
The comparative absolute numbers with Game Boy, Color, and GBA was a wrong metric because of two factors: worldwide growth population and growth of worldwide distribution. Except for Japan, the majority of big markets have population growth, with that in mind the same numbers of Game Boy and Nintendo 3DS it´s were bad for 3DS because 3DS had more worldwide distribution. The first Game Boy was launched in the mass market in Japan, North America, and some European countries, likewise the NEs(a little better because of Europe and almost none clones. NES was the most clones of all video games, Dendy sells 2 million in Russia alone²). The Japanese market demonstrates this better because of the aging population and not growing population: GB# (GB and GBC) was the same level of DS. But not extrapolate to other countries because of population growth and better worldwide distribution( Nintendo doesn´t have the same level of Sony distribution even today)
Another problem was the historical point. The Game Boy created the portable market, so it is difficult to compare as it is an embryonic market. The Game Boy Advanced only had four years of excellent support and ended its life early due to the launch of the Nintendo DS, so it did not have a minimum cycle of five or six years. Although the 3DS had more market penetration, Nintendo had more cash to galvanize third parties (Nintendo stole MH, for example), despite these two factors it still suffered more because of the direction of the console and the four production pipelines at the same time.
[1] https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/valuation/business-life-cycle/
[2] https://web.archive.org/web/2018122...10761-The-Secret-History-of-Knockoff-Consoles
The worst-selling generation to Nintendo was the 3ds/Wiiu. What happening there? Nintendo launching two dedicated hardware with features that don´t have mass appeal. The second reason was three/four different pipelines at the same time, this problem brought a big gap in first-party output; Nintendo's focal mover was first-party output, without a bunch of games and hoping third-party will fill the gap we have the droughts, and the potential buyers reduced. And without mass appeal reducing the quantity of each tier of consumers. And the limitation of the library reduces the buzz and continuous attention in public space. It was constant and shortened the usual video game life cycle¹, the 3ds have some more life because Pokemon itself was a behemoth. 3ds in the top 5 has 3 Pokemon main games. Nintendo DS has only one in 5th, and Nintendo Switch has none ( and the biggest top 5 overall in both systems). 3ds was a Pokemon machine, without an expanded audience and reducing the former games.
Does the 3ds repentance occur? I don´t think so. Nintendo may make big mistakes. Yes, but different, very different. One pipeline and Pokemon need to be at risk to make a 3ds level of sales.
The comparative absolute numbers with Game Boy, Color, and GBA was a wrong metric because of two factors: worldwide growth population and growth of worldwide distribution. Except for Japan, the majority of big markets have population growth, with that in mind the same numbers of Game Boy and Nintendo 3DS it´s were bad for 3DS because 3DS had more worldwide distribution. The first Game Boy was launched in the mass market in Japan, North America, and some European countries, likewise the NEs(a little better because of Europe and almost none clones. NES was the most clones of all video games, Dendy sells 2 million in Russia alone²). The Japanese market demonstrates this better because of the aging population and not growing population: GB# (GB and GBC) was the same level of DS. But not extrapolate to other countries because of population growth and better worldwide distribution( Nintendo doesn´t have the same level of Sony distribution even today)
Another problem was the historical point. The Game Boy created the portable market, so it is difficult to compare as it is an embryonic market. The Game Boy Advanced only had four years of excellent support and ended its life early due to the launch of the Nintendo DS, so it did not have a minimum cycle of five or six years. Although the 3DS had more market penetration, Nintendo had more cash to galvanize third parties (Nintendo stole MH, for example), despite these two factors it still suffered more because of the direction of the console and the four production pipelines at the same time.
[1] https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com/resources/valuation/business-life-cycle/
[2] https://web.archive.org/web/2018122...10761-The-Secret-History-of-Knockoff-Consoles
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AruanaRiva
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3DS miss steps is multiple all at once that tanked its launch which hurt its sales potential till its end of life.
Expensive launch price
Very weak launch software
Nintendo mindhsares is getting weaker at that time because Wii and DS both slowdown at same time.
Mobile getting stronger in threatening handheld market.
At this point, i dont see how Switch 2 will redo the same mistake considering.
Nintendo delayed Switch 2 launch(internally from rumors) to have huge first party titles
Third party in japans for A/AA games has even further entrenched themselves into Ninty ecosystem
Price acceptance has grow higher year over year vs 3DS era
Nintendo mindshares is at peak popularity and power at the current time
Mobile is not anymore directly threatening Switch/hybrid market.
Even if Switch is going to decline. I can see decline at most around 30m but it will gain more as the machine price and game price will be higher+ NSO will become a must have due to maturation of the subscription.
Expensive launch price
Very weak launch software
Nintendo mindhsares is getting weaker at that time because Wii and DS both slowdown at same time.
Mobile getting stronger in threatening handheld market.
At this point, i dont see how Switch 2 will redo the same mistake considering.
Nintendo delayed Switch 2 launch(internally from rumors) to have huge first party titles
Third party in japans for A/AA games has even further entrenched themselves into Ninty ecosystem
Price acceptance has grow higher year over year vs 3DS era
Nintendo mindshares is at peak popularity and power at the current time
Mobile is not anymore directly threatening Switch/hybrid market.
Even if Switch is going to decline. I can see decline at most around 30m but it will gain more as the machine price and game price will be higher+ NSO will become a must have due to maturation of the subscription.
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So the Switch 2 has been revealed, and it's been a bit of a doozy. I wanted to go back to this thread mainly to read the concerns posted about what it would take for this to be a 3DS style stumble. The result confirms my suspicions - this has certainly been a unique launch. Nintendo has definitely made a few mistakes, but it won't really result in a 3DS style fumble in the end.
Nintendo made two real mistakes here: They priced Mario Kart World at $80 (opening a whole Pandora's Box) and their communication around the product following the Direct has been poor. There are other things people take issue with around the console: The fact that Welcome Tour is $10, voice chat being locked behind NSO, some of Doug Bowser's comments, Breath of the Wild's DLC not being on the cartridge in the Switch 2 Edition, etc. All of this certainly doesn't help it's perception, but - to be frank - they're pretty minor in the grand scheme of things. Ultimately people online have an issue with Nintendo's pricing decisions.
In most other respects, though, I'd say Nintendo did well. The actual Switch 2 presentation was well-recieved, as the pricing issue happened after it. The Switch 2 is getting a brand new huge-looking Mario Kart game at launch followed by a big new 3D platformer a little over a month later. The actual hardware seems to be more capable than what many expected and justifies the price for some. The branding is easy to understand (shouldn't be harder to understand than PlayStation's branding). The central gimmick is mostly "a bigger, better Switch", which it seems to be delivering on. Not just with it's first party games, but seemingly with it's third party support as well (Big games at launch, exclusive FromSoft title, etc.). Awareness of the Nintendo IP is also stronger, considering the billion-dollar movie and amusement parks and museum the company has opened up.
The Switch 2 wont be outselling the Switch, but IMO it was never going to even if it did everything right. I'm expecting more of a PS4 to PS5 style drop. Perhaps a bit more pronounced but it should still be able to break 100 million units when all is said and done. Wonder what you guys think, though.
Nintendo made two real mistakes here: They priced Mario Kart World at $80 (opening a whole Pandora's Box) and their communication around the product following the Direct has been poor. There are other things people take issue with around the console: The fact that Welcome Tour is $10, voice chat being locked behind NSO, some of Doug Bowser's comments, Breath of the Wild's DLC not being on the cartridge in the Switch 2 Edition, etc. All of this certainly doesn't help it's perception, but - to be frank - they're pretty minor in the grand scheme of things. Ultimately people online have an issue with Nintendo's pricing decisions.
In most other respects, though, I'd say Nintendo did well. The actual Switch 2 presentation was well-recieved, as the pricing issue happened after it. The Switch 2 is getting a brand new huge-looking Mario Kart game at launch followed by a big new 3D platformer a little over a month later. The actual hardware seems to be more capable than what many expected and justifies the price for some. The branding is easy to understand (shouldn't be harder to understand than PlayStation's branding). The central gimmick is mostly "a bigger, better Switch", which it seems to be delivering on. Not just with it's first party games, but seemingly with it's third party support as well (Big games at launch, exclusive FromSoft title, etc.). Awareness of the Nintendo IP is also stronger, considering the billion-dollar movie and amusement parks and museum the company has opened up.
The Switch 2 wont be outselling the Switch, but IMO it was never going to even if it did everything right. I'm expecting more of a PS4 to PS5 style drop. Perhaps a bit more pronounced but it should still be able to break 100 million units when all is said and done. Wonder what you guys think, though.
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PS4 -> PS5 seems to be what will happen. It will fly off the shelves much faster at launch but the tail will be a little worse than switch 1
But much like Sony did Nintendo seems to by eyeing increased margins and profit by increasing costs and pushing more services/digital
Third party support should also get off to a much faster start
But much like Sony did Nintendo seems to by eyeing increased margins and profit by increasing costs and pushing more services/digital
Third party support should also get off to a much faster start
I’ve always said that it could outsell the Switch but sales would have to be pretty consistent throughout a 10yr cycle & its ending years be selling more like Switch FY24(?) than Switch FY25. I think it’ll do better than most but this will be contingent on games, both 1st & 3rd party, & emerging markets.
I do agree though it’ll be more PS4 -> 5 than 3DS. WiiU just isn’t in the cards here since this would mean an undesirable product which is a bigger problem than game pricing.
I do agree though it’ll be more PS4 -> 5 than 3DS. WiiU just isn’t in the cards here since this would mean an undesirable product which is a bigger problem than game pricing.
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Yup, I agree. Looking at the list of potential issues in the OP, we had:
- Messing up branding - not an issue, it's as straightforward as it could possibly be.
- Lacking desirable games at launch - not an issue, they are launching with the first successor to one of the bestselling games of all time in a decade, and following up with Donkey Kong, Pokemon, and Metroid over the year. Third parties are bringing some good games at launch and over the year as well.
- Launching without major functionality - not an issue (in fact, this is the most feature complete Nintendo system launch since the GameCube, I would argue). This is a more minor point overall, however.
- Executing on the gimmick poorly - not an issue, since there's no real central or disruptive gimmick, it's just a better version of what everyone already has and loves.
- Messing up on the pricing - this is the big stumble overall. The hardware is priced fairly, but higher than is traditionally accessible to their expanded audiences. The games are priced high. The tech demo having a price at all feels too high. The upgrades added to the base cost of the games feels high. On top of this, Nintendo has taken away several mitigating methods people had on hand to control costs a little. They have not included Switch 2 games in the vouchers program. They have discontinued the Gold Coins program. The costs are adding up, especially in the face of an impending global economic crisis.
Which I think, overall, they are within the margin of error for. They did make one big mistake, but it's also the easiest one to fix – you can't undo poor branding, taking the time to design a better version of the hardware would take at least a couple of years, and not getting games out on time can be debilitating if you have messed up your software pipeline – Nintendo themselves are proof of this with the Wii U in particular, but also late Wii and early 3DS.
But pricing is easy to reverse. It can be almost immediate, and while there are always considerations to consider – profit margins, revenue forecasts, production bottlenecks, etc. – it's an easy one to pull the trigger on (and it can be an easy way to immediately win back any goodwill).
So yes, I think Nintendo did fine overall. I also agree that the contraction between Switch and Switch 2 will not be as severe as the DS to 3DS contraction that I posited in the OP now. The Switch 2 is an appealing and well made product with straightforward branding, and a great lineup of games. It is desirable, which is actually demonstrated in all the complaints about it coming back to pricing in some form or the other – which might be the first time in decades that has been true for a Nintendo system. If pricing proves to be a deterrent to its performance in the market – which I don't think it will in the first few months, but will definitely prove to be in the mid to long term – then Nintendo can address it, with price drops if they have to, or discounts, bundles, and in a few years, a presumed cheaper Switch 2 Lite as well.
So yes, overall, they have done fine. I think PS4->PS5 is the trajectory to expect. I would assume ~100-120 million units sold for the Switch 2 overall by the end of its life.
Actually, the voice chat for Switch 2 is free until March 31st, 2026. However, I just can't picture a situation where someone would only use voice chat without subscribing to Nintendo Online, meaning they don't play any online games at all.
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I think many underestimate the region lock moves that nintendo did for japan. That alone will put Switch 2 on path for sales on par with Switch 1 or at least minimal decline there.
It shows that Nintendo understand how important their domestic market is and the stronger specs of Switch 2 will even push harder on converging the whole market under a single nintendo umbrella.
It shows that Nintendo understand how important their domestic market is and the stronger specs of Switch 2 will even push harder on converging the whole market under a single nintendo umbrella.
Jury is still out on price, I am not comfortable to call it a stumble until we get sales data.
Switch's prices were judged harshly back then and that's one of the only console in history that held its price for the 8 years it was on the market.
Christopher Dring brought a fine example in his latest piece:
Is Nintendo Switch 2 a legitimate rival to Xbox and PlayStation this time? | Here’s The Dring
Plus, my take on the Switch 2 pricing row and the potential significance of Nintendo's new Donkey Kong game
www.thegamebusiness.com
I don't think the price increase alone will determine sales potential. PS5 has cost more than PS4, and yet outpaces PS4 sales in the US market. So the price will not be the deciding factor, but if consumers will think the Switch 2 is worth its price, and that will depend on games and general vibes about the system, as well as on Nintendo IP strength in different markets.
And what has pricing done to the PS5's trajectory vs PS4 in literally every other region?
Decline, but due to growing in the US compared to PS4 it has only led to a small decline in total sales. My point wasn't that Switch 2 won't decline in sales compared to Switch 1, but that its unlikely to have any sort of total sales collapse compared to Switch 1 as some have speculated on the internet.
A PS4-to-PS5 kind of decline for the Switch2 compared to Switch1 in terms of LtD unit sold would already be a massive and historic success
1) Switch 2 will not be a beneficiary of COVID spending that PS5 and Switch 1 availed of, particularly in the US where consumers were literally handed discretionary spending directly
2) Reliance on US sales as a stabiliser for loss of sales elsewhere seems high-risk in the current market environment
To be clear, I think the hardware price is fine (especially the bundle, it's good value) and that hardware sales shouldn't be an issue, it's just the combination of the current market environment and potential changes to how software sales will work due to price increases that I'm wary about. IMO they need to announce a voucher program or some other incentive in the 1st 12 months of launch if they want to replicate Switch 1 software sales, where consumers were throwing money in record-breaking amounts at even "2nd tier" franchises like Kirby. The whole point of this business is achieving high margins on mass sales of software - they have worked against their own interests by creating sticker shock and turning future software pricing into a guessing game that currently appears arbitrary to consumers.
Does the cart reader cost 50 USD?
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I'd also wait with judging the pricing untill the system is out. Pre-order data so far suggests this is going to be anything but a 3DS situation with stock going in and out at various retailers.
On a related note, one thing I find frustrating is that people have a hundred different scenarios in their head where a new Nintendo platform suffers a failure or underperformance. That leaves little to no room for the scenario where they succeed. What annoys me the most is that it causes a discussion that goes around in circles again and again and again.
It leaves very little space to see what exactly is Nintendo doing right and what type of impact are they going to have. Is it going to be big or small? What games are going to wind up being influential for the systems lifespan?
I've seen a lot of this happen before in the lead-up to the Switch, the Wii U, 3DS, Wii and NDS. Every single time it's like people can only talk about Nintendo in one context and only one context: The N64 vs PSOne context.
I'm sorry but it winds up obscuring what's really going on in the market. Nintendo is not eternally stuck in 1996. The only reason people keep talking about them that way seems entirely based on nothing but vibes.
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I think Switch 2 price is fine as its a more premium hardware that it was Switch 1 in 2017. Don't forget people really thought Switch 1 was DOA due to its "high" price ($300 was the same as PS4 Slim or XB One S in early 2017) + poor third party support + "underpowered" hardware was the three mains reasons people claimed.
If third party support is there, I can see being as successful as Switch 1 in all mayor markets.
Games are more expensive, yes, but it will be a common trend in the industry. Budgets have skyrocketed and Nintendo isn't the exception.
If third party support is there, I can see being as successful as Switch 1 in all mayor markets.
Games are more expensive, yes, but it will be a common trend in the industry. Budgets have skyrocketed and Nintendo isn't the exception.
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Digital only console would get more money from consumers as the time passes by.
I really don't see them having a 3DS style mess up, and definitely not a Wii U style stumble. NS2 should easily cross 100m sales. I'd personally put it in the 120m to 140m range (probably closer to 120m). If anything, this would be more like going from GB/GBC to GBA, and even that's not a perfect comparison. Back then, the GB/GBC had a very long lifespan and the GBA had a very short lifespan. If Nintendo wasn't spooked by the PSP, I could see DS not releasing until 2007, so the GBA could've crossed 100m (probably would've still just missed GB/GBC lifetime sales). Either way, GB & GBC were successful and they were followed up by another successful system, GBA. That's basically what I see happening with NS1 & NS2. A successful system followed by another successful system, even if the successor doesn't outsell the original.
A 3DS like drop would require a level of incompetence that even the PS3 architects would blush at. That’s not happening. The 3DS wasn’t just overpriced, it was built around a feature that the market didn’t care about and had its 1st party split between it and home consoles.
The switch is a continuation of something that people want, a portable system that people can use like a home console, with full Nintendo 1st party support. It’s a premium product and there is a degree of sticker shock with $80 games but I think it’s still a lock for 100 million lifetimes sales.
The switch is a continuation of something that people want, a portable system that people can use like a home console, with full Nintendo 1st party support. It’s a premium product and there is a degree of sticker shock with $80 games but I think it’s still a lock for 100 million lifetimes sales.
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Most free to play games dont need NSO to play online, for example fortnite or warframe.
Nintendo has never relied on the US making up for other markets, they usually have a bit of reliance on Japan and nothing so far shows that Japanese fans have as many complaints.
Second vouchers. These didn't even exist until 2019 and I do suspect they will come back but probably also not too quickly. I also think consumers are less price sensitive than people give them credit for. If price was an issue the $199 or $299 Switch would be selling better than the $349 OLED. I also don't think price for anything outside of Mario Kart is a problem right now. $70 games were inevitable for Switch 2 as a baseline. They have no reason to stick to $60 just like they had no reason to stick with $40 after the 3DS. Seeing that Donkey Kong is 70, Kirby and most second tier games were also going to be 70 regardless of MKW being 80 or not.
And we still don't know if the price will have a real impact, PS5 have already shown that a lot of people complain about the price but still end up buying it. There is no way of knowing if most of the Switch 2 price critics will really end up not buying the system or buying it anyway, while continuing to complain about the price.
I think the most fitting comparison would be a PS4-to-PS5 situation
meaning: I am very confident the Switch 2 LT sales will be lower, in terms of unit sales, than the Switch ones, but should still be pretty positive in terms of units AND revenues
I've been thinking 100-120 million lifetime for Switch 2 should be the expectation, and that's still a massive success. I don't think anything will ever match Switch 1 again, it was a perfect storm of circumstances that combined to create its unprecedented success.
I personally am of the belief it will beat the Switch 1 (call me mad hahah)
Just wondering in terms of the 4 regions, how much do you see Switch 2 selling in each??
I think:
Americas - 70M (with Latin America going up)
Europe - 45M
Japan - 35M
Other - 25M
Total : 175M
Nintendo has potential of growth in the smaller territories, in Europe for the early years.
US will be extremely tough to match (and I don't think it will) but Japan is open given the lack of competition there and the number of IPs that will get releases in the system.
We'll see how things evolve regarding their geopolitical context but Nintendo has built the hardware and the software pipeline to smoothly cross 100M sold worldwide (and 120M+ is probably the range I am putting it in currently).
US will be extremely tough to match (and I don't think it will) but Japan is open given the lack of competition there and the number of IPs that will get releases in the system.
We'll see how things evolve regarding their geopolitical context but Nintendo has built the hardware and the software pipeline to smoothly cross 100M sold worldwide (and 120M+ is probably the range I am putting it in currently).
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I personally sees decline a bit on US and Europe there guaranteed. Economy is not helping.
Japan should be stable with how Switch 2 this time has region lock that serve japan market totally and now with even more third party AAA support day one.
SEA is also going to grow even bigger with how economy is growing there and Nintendo investment on Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore and Vietnam going to bore fruit this gen with even Eshop launching later.
Now. If Nintendo can solve China problem and find best partner to collab for mainland release without any limitation. It will be the biggest console sales in China there.
Japan should be stable with how Switch 2 this time has region lock that serve japan market totally and now with even more third party AAA support day one.
SEA is also going to grow even bigger with how economy is growing there and Nintendo investment on Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore and Vietnam going to bore fruit this gen with even Eshop launching later.
Now. If Nintendo can solve China problem and find best partner to collab for mainland release without any limitation. It will be the biggest console sales in China there.
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I also agree that the Nintendo Switch 2 will likely sell at a slower pace compared to the original Switch — around 120 million units over eight years seems like a reasonable estimate.
However, if we’re talking about lifetime sales, the situation might be different.
Yes, that means I believe the Nintendo Switch 2 could very well have a longer lifespan than the original Switch, potentially reaching ten years — something only the original Game Boy has achieved in the past.
First, let's talk about the performance of handheld PCs — it's already hitting a bottleneck due to physical limitations like power consumption and heat generation.
AMD’s latest generation Z2E hasn’t appeared in any actual products yet, but since it’s a modified chip based on the AMD Ryzen™ AI 9 HX 370, we can reasonably predict that its performance improvement over the previous Z1E will be quite limited — around 10% to 20% at best.
What’s even more unfortunate is that if you limit the power usage to under 15W — which is the typical operating condition for handheld devices — the performance gain becomes even smaller.
Incidentally, AMD has a more powerful chip this generation — the AMD Ryzen™ AI Max+ 395 — but due to its power consumption and heat generation, it’s unlikely that this chip could be installed in a handheld PC.
Therefore, unlike the original Nintendo Switch, the Nintendo Switch 2 is likely to remain a mid-to-high-performance portable gaming device for a long time to come.
With both Xbox and PlayStation seemingly preparing to launch their own handheld devices, the next generation (the PS6 era) may see very few true exclusives. This shift could extend the period during which mainstream AAA titles also include the Nintendo Switch 2 as a launch platform.
Given this context, Nintendo will have strong and compelling incentives to further extend the lifespan of the Switch 2. If it truly manages to reach a ten-year lifecycle, it could very well surpass 150 million units sold once again.
However, if we’re talking about lifetime sales, the situation might be different.
Yes, that means I believe the Nintendo Switch 2 could very well have a longer lifespan than the original Switch, potentially reaching ten years — something only the original Game Boy has achieved in the past.
First, let's talk about the performance of handheld PCs — it's already hitting a bottleneck due to physical limitations like power consumption and heat generation.
AMD’s latest generation Z2E hasn’t appeared in any actual products yet, but since it’s a modified chip based on the AMD Ryzen™ AI 9 HX 370, we can reasonably predict that its performance improvement over the previous Z1E will be quite limited — around 10% to 20% at best.
What’s even more unfortunate is that if you limit the power usage to under 15W — which is the typical operating condition for handheld devices — the performance gain becomes even smaller.
Incidentally, AMD has a more powerful chip this generation — the AMD Ryzen™ AI Max+ 395 — but due to its power consumption and heat generation, it’s unlikely that this chip could be installed in a handheld PC.
Therefore, unlike the original Nintendo Switch, the Nintendo Switch 2 is likely to remain a mid-to-high-performance portable gaming device for a long time to come.
With both Xbox and PlayStation seemingly preparing to launch their own handheld devices, the next generation (the PS6 era) may see very few true exclusives. This shift could extend the period during which mainstream AAA titles also include the Nintendo Switch 2 as a launch platform.
Given this context, Nintendo will have strong and compelling incentives to further extend the lifespan of the Switch 2. If it truly manages to reach a ten-year lifecycle, it could very well surpass 150 million units sold once again.
Yeah, its a Marathon not a sprint. They havent shown anywhere close to all the cards in their deck either.
Foundation looks strong and the first 18-24 months should be solid based on first impressions.
How things really shake up will be shown when the OG Switch slowly dies and is replaced by a cheaper Switch 2 model and the stronger competition shows up. Im confident that the Switch 2 will continue to look quite good in comparison.
btw. Lots of a big and legendary series celebrating their Anniversaries soon. I think fans are gonna be happy next year.
Foundation looks strong and the first 18-24 months should be solid based on first impressions.
How things really shake up will be shown when the OG Switch slowly dies and is replaced by a cheaper Switch 2 model and the stronger competition shows up. Im confident that the Switch 2 will continue to look quite good in comparison.
btw. Lots of a big and legendary series celebrating their Anniversaries soon. I think fans are gonna be happy next year.
Agree on this one. The recency bias with the pricing news is skewing perception here when we're talking about a product that will span a decade. Unlike the Wii U, the Switch is very well known and it's going to be the games that decide whether it falls somewhat short or reaches new highs. Will the Switch 2 have its Animal Crossing, Nintendogs, or Wii Sports type moment that send sales into the stratosphere? I would say the odds are heavily stacked in its favor.
Another aspect to look at here is all the kids who grew up over the last 8 years that now have intense nostalgia for Nintendo and disposable incomes-- not to mention the fact that people in this day and age are more socially isolated than ever before and gaming and technology in general is becoming more and more integrated into our lives which trumps rising costs across the board. Also consider that Nintendo seems positioned to eat a bigger slice of the traditional gaming market pie with third parties.
The economy is in a constant state of flux and game pricing and deals are flexible. All in all, I think far too much importance is being placed on Switch 2's price as a knee jerk reaction to the last couple weeks when it will be a drop in the bucket in the lifespan of a very compelling, well known product chalk full of IP that holds a ton of mind-share across the world at large.
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Its better to wait a little bit but its probably Nintendo is saving their big guns like Smash, 3D Mario, 3D Zelda, Luigis Mansion, Splatoon and Animal Crossing for second half 2026 and foward.
also wouldn’t strange me they are planning a Switch 2 Lite model for late 2027, more or less the same timeline as Switch 1 -> Lite model.
But well, I think its better to wait a little bit until preorders open worldwide.
also wouldn’t strange me they are planning a Switch 2 Lite model for late 2027, more or less the same timeline as Switch 1 -> Lite model.
But well, I think its better to wait a little bit until preorders open worldwide.
