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NEW RULES + EXPLANATION
Because Michael Pachter of Wedbush Securities decided to stop subscribing to NPD last year, access to retail NPD appears to have been massively limited. Whether that's due to firms getting NPD through Pachter or agreeing with him that NPD data is worthless without digital sales (only video game companies that are on the digital board have access), leaks of hardware numbers might've dried up.
Fear not! I have a plan to remedy this set back so that this game can live on spirit. We will be transitioning away from predicting hardware units by console and instead be predicting Total Video Game Hardware Revenue and Order Of Consoles.
Every month NPD releases hardware revenue along with which console was in first place. We can always ask Mat Piscatella for the #2 console if he doesn't initially provide it.
How This Will Work
Predict how much revenue will be generated by Hardware for the given month as such
Good/Bad Formatting
Then: Predict the order of each console FOR REVENUE as such
1. [NSW]
2. [PS5]
3. [XBS]
THE ABOVE IS IMPORTANT
The above is how you rank each console in terms of REVENUE. If you put NSW at 1., you are predicting NSW will be #1 in revenue.
Points
Hardware Revenue will be 50 points and follows how the hardware unit points work.
50 points * (percentage of correct revenue for hardware); anything over 100% difference = 0 points.
Correct Order would be the following in points.
If #1 correct = 18
If #2 correct = 10
If #3 correct = 7
If All Three correct = 15
That would be a total of 50 points to earn from console placements.
100 points in total to earn a month from the above two, plus bonus points for finishing in the Top 10 of hardware revenue.
#1 - 17 points
#2 - 13 points
#3 - 11 points
#4 - 9 points
#5 - 7 points
#6 - 5 points
#7 - 4 points
#8 - 3 points
#9 - 2 points
#10 - 1 point
Tradition Is Dead?
Not exactly. You will still put numbers down as if the game never changed. This will be your Unit ranking. Because I don't know if/when numbers will be made available again, there's always the potential they pop up again. If that happens, I want all of us to still make predictions as we have in the past.
RECAP
The 1.2.3. placements are how you will be ranking each platform for revenue. So if it's revealed PS5 was #1 in revenue and you had PS5 as 1., you get points for that.
The "traditional" predictions for unit sales will be separate to that. You can put whatever number you want there. You could have PS5 as 1. for revenue, but say you aren't sure about units and want to hedge your bets on Xbox being the actual unit lead. Example prediction below:
1. [PS5] 200K
2. [XBS] 300K
3. [NSW] 100K
This user has PS5 winning revenue, but Xbox for units. This is a valid prediction. How points are calculated are still the same 50 points assigned, but like this.
Each ranking still has the same value, If #1 correct = 18, If #2 correct = 10, If #3 correct = 7. If the revenue and unit results have the same placements, then nothing changes.
If revenue and unit placements/results are different, then points will be halved. Take the above example and we'll say the actual results are PS5 > XBS > NSW in both revenue and units.
The above predictor would get 9 points for predicting PS5 on top of revenue, but not the full 18 due to the unit placement. They would get 5 points for XBS for the same reason as PS5, then 7 points for NSW.
There are also bonus points for If All Three correct = 15. In this user's case, they'd only get 7.5 points as they got the correct revenue order, but not units.
In total they'd have 28.5 / 50 points.
ITT, predict for the Circana October 2023 retail period (October 1, 2023 - October 28, 2023) for U.S. hardware REVENUE and UNIT placements.
What is Circana?: Circana is one of the main retail tracking firms in the U.S., and also about the only one who specifically goes into detail on video games sales. This thread is to predict what the Circana hardware sales will be for the most recent month. Circana months are defined by the National Retail Federation (find calendar links here).
What do I win?: Bragging rights. We also keep track of predictions over the year and have an annual contest using "points." Still just bragging rights, but Sales followers have fun seeing how well we can do with it. See here for details on the point calculations. (Only used for Hardware Units)
Why are there still predictions when official Circana numbers are not released?: Despite not receiving numbers from Circana directly since 2010, we have always found ways of obtaining them, whether through official company PR or leaks. These threads are also a place for the community to discuss the upcoming releases and current state of the US market as well as potential impacts in the future. In the end, it's for fun!
Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 8 p.m. EST on Monday, November 13. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.
Circana Coverage: October 1, 2023 - October 28, 2023 (4 weeks, September was 5 weeks)
Circana Results Release: Tuesday, November 14 @ 9 a.m. EST? (PR + thread posted Wednesday, November 15 around 9 a.m EST)
Format:
[REV]
1. [NSW] XXX
2. [PS5] XXX
3. [XBS] XXX
Note: Combined totals for multi-SKUs. e.g. PS5 physical and digital edition total go under PS5. Xbox Series X and Xbox Series S total goes under XBS.
Good/Bad Formatting
Potential hardware impacting events in October:
Assassins Creed Mirage (PS5/XBS) - October 5 (24 days in tracking) (4 weeks)
NHL 24 (PS5/XBS) - October 6 (23 days in tracking) (4 weeks)
PS5
Spider-Man 2 - October 20 (8 days in tracking) (2 weeks)
Spider-Man 2 Bundle $569 - October 20 (8 days in tracking) (2 weeks)
Xbox
Forza Motorsport - October 10 (18 days in tracking) (3 weeks)
Numerous $499 deal on Series X bundles throughout the month
Switch
Super Mario Bros. Wonder - October 20 (8 days in tracking) (2 weeks)
Mario Red OLED $349 - October 6 - August 31 (31 days in tracking) (4 weeks)
Mario Mart 8 Deluxe Neon Switch bundle $299 - October 6 (23 days in tracking) (4 weeks)
Animal Crossing New Horizons Switch Lite Coral bundle $199 - October 6 (23 days in tracking) (4 weeks)
Animal Crossing New Horizons Switch Lite Turquoise bundle $199 - October 6 (23 days in tracking) (4 weeks)
Video Game Hardware Prices
Switch: $199/$299/$349/$359 (Lite/Regular/OLED/Zelda)
Xbox Series: $299/$499 (S/X) | $559 (X Forza Bundle/X Diablo 4 Bundle)
PS5: $399/$499 (Digital/Regular) | $459 (Digital GOW) | $559 (PS5 Bundles) | $599 (Spider-Man 2 Limited Bundle)
Older Hardware, ROG Ally, Logitech G Cloud, Arcade cabinets: ???
Recent History of October Hardware Revenue
October 2022 Units
PS5: 456K (Call of Duty Modern Warfare 2)
XBS: 261K (Call of Duty Modern Warfare 2)
NSW: ???
September 2023 Rankings
Units: 1) PS5 2) XBS 3) Switch
Dollars: 1) PS5 2) XBS 3) Switch
September 2022 NPD thread
October 2022 NPD thread
NPD Prediction Thread Archive
Because Michael Pachter of Wedbush Securities decided to stop subscribing to NPD last year, access to retail NPD appears to have been massively limited. Whether that's due to firms getting NPD through Pachter or agreeing with him that NPD data is worthless without digital sales (only video game companies that are on the digital board have access), leaks of hardware numbers might've dried up.
Fear not! I have a plan to remedy this set back so that this game can live on spirit. We will be transitioning away from predicting hardware units by console and instead be predicting Total Video Game Hardware Revenue and Order Of Consoles.
Every month NPD releases hardware revenue along with which console was in first place. We can always ask Mat Piscatella for the #2 console if he doesn't initially provide it.
How This Will Work
Predict how much revenue will be generated by Hardware for the given month as such
Good/Bad Formatting
Code:
Good Bad
[REV] 405M [REV] 400.5 million
[REV] 405,000,000 [REV] 405.000.000
[REV] 405000000 [REV] - 405000000Then: Predict the order of each console FOR REVENUE as such
1. [NSW]
2. [PS5]
3. [XBS]
THE ABOVE IS IMPORTANT
The above is how you rank each console in terms of REVENUE. If you put NSW at 1., you are predicting NSW will be #1 in revenue.
Points
Hardware Revenue will be 50 points and follows how the hardware unit points work.
50 points * (percentage of correct revenue for hardware); anything over 100% difference = 0 points.
Correct Order would be the following in points.
If #1 correct = 18
If #2 correct = 10
If #3 correct = 7
If All Three correct = 15
That would be a total of 50 points to earn from console placements.
100 points in total to earn a month from the above two, plus bonus points for finishing in the Top 10 of hardware revenue.
#1 - 17 points
#2 - 13 points
#3 - 11 points
#4 - 9 points
#5 - 7 points
#6 - 5 points
#7 - 4 points
#8 - 3 points
#9 - 2 points
#10 - 1 point
Tradition Is Dead?
Not exactly. You will still put numbers down as if the game never changed. This will be your Unit ranking. Because I don't know if/when numbers will be made available again, there's always the potential they pop up again. If that happens, I want all of us to still make predictions as we have in the past.
RECAP
The 1.2.3. placements are how you will be ranking each platform for revenue. So if it's revealed PS5 was #1 in revenue and you had PS5 as 1., you get points for that.
The "traditional" predictions for unit sales will be separate to that. You can put whatever number you want there. You could have PS5 as 1. for revenue, but say you aren't sure about units and want to hedge your bets on Xbox being the actual unit lead. Example prediction below:
1. [PS5] 200K
2. [XBS] 300K
3. [NSW] 100K
This user has PS5 winning revenue, but Xbox for units. This is a valid prediction. How points are calculated are still the same 50 points assigned, but like this.
Each ranking still has the same value, If #1 correct = 18, If #2 correct = 10, If #3 correct = 7. If the revenue and unit results have the same placements, then nothing changes.
If revenue and unit placements/results are different, then points will be halved. Take the above example and we'll say the actual results are PS5 > XBS > NSW in both revenue and units.
The above predictor would get 9 points for predicting PS5 on top of revenue, but not the full 18 due to the unit placement. They would get 5 points for XBS for the same reason as PS5, then 7 points for NSW.
There are also bonus points for If All Three correct = 15. In this user's case, they'd only get 7.5 points as they got the correct revenue order, but not units.
In total they'd have 28.5 / 50 points.
ITT, predict for the Circana October 2023 retail period (October 1, 2023 - October 28, 2023) for U.S. hardware REVENUE and UNIT placements.
What is Circana?: Circana is one of the main retail tracking firms in the U.S., and also about the only one who specifically goes into detail on video games sales. This thread is to predict what the Circana hardware sales will be for the most recent month. Circana months are defined by the National Retail Federation (find calendar links here).
What do I win?: Bragging rights. We also keep track of predictions over the year and have an annual contest using "points." Still just bragging rights, but Sales followers have fun seeing how well we can do with it. See here for details on the point calculations. (Only used for Hardware Units)
Why are there still predictions when official Circana numbers are not released?: Despite not receiving numbers from Circana directly since 2010, we have always found ways of obtaining them, whether through official company PR or leaks. These threads are also a place for the community to discuss the upcoming releases and current state of the US market as well as potential impacts in the future. In the end, it's for fun!
Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 8 p.m. EST on Monday, November 13. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.
Circana Coverage: October 1, 2023 - October 28, 2023 (4 weeks, September was 5 weeks)
Circana Results Release: Tuesday, November 14 @ 9 a.m. EST? (PR + thread posted Wednesday, November 15 around 9 a.m EST)
Format:
[REV]
1. [NSW] XXX
2. [PS5] XXX
3. [XBS] XXX
Note: Combined totals for multi-SKUs. e.g. PS5 physical and digital edition total go under PS5. Xbox Series X and Xbox Series S total goes under XBS.
Good/Bad Formatting
Code:
Good Bad
[REV] 405M [REV] 400.5 million
[REV] 405,000,000 [REV] 405.000.000
[REV] 405000000 [REV] - 405000000
Code:
Good Bad
[XBS] 1200K [XBS] 1.2 million
[XBS] 1,200,000 [XBS] 1.200.000
[XBS] 1200000 [XBS] - 1200000Potential hardware impacting events in October:
Assassins Creed Mirage (PS5/XBS) - October 5 (24 days in tracking) (4 weeks)
NHL 24 (PS5/XBS) - October 6 (23 days in tracking) (4 weeks)
PS5
Spider-Man 2 - October 20 (8 days in tracking) (2 weeks)
Spider-Man 2 Bundle $569 - October 20 (8 days in tracking) (2 weeks)
Xbox
Forza Motorsport - October 10 (18 days in tracking) (3 weeks)
Numerous $499 deal on Series X bundles throughout the month
Switch
Super Mario Bros. Wonder - October 20 (8 days in tracking) (2 weeks)
Mario Red OLED $349 - October 6 - August 31 (31 days in tracking) (4 weeks)
Mario Mart 8 Deluxe Neon Switch bundle $299 - October 6 (23 days in tracking) (4 weeks)
Animal Crossing New Horizons Switch Lite Coral bundle $199 - October 6 (23 days in tracking) (4 weeks)
Animal Crossing New Horizons Switch Lite Turquoise bundle $199 - October 6 (23 days in tracking) (4 weeks)
Video Game Hardware Prices
Switch: $199/$299/$349/$359 (Lite/Regular/OLED/Zelda)
Xbox Series: $299/$499 (S/X) | $559 (X Forza Bundle/X Diablo 4 Bundle)
PS5: $399/$499 (Digital/Regular) | $459 (Digital GOW) | $559 (PS5 Bundles) | $599 (Spider-Man 2 Limited Bundle)
Older Hardware, ROG Ally, Logitech G Cloud, Arcade cabinets: ???
Recent History of October Hardware Revenue
October 2022 Units
PS5: 456K (Call of Duty Modern Warfare 2)
XBS: 261K (Call of Duty Modern Warfare 2)
NSW: ???
September 2023 Rankings
Units: 1) PS5 2) XBS 3) Switch
Dollars: 1) PS5 2) XBS 3) Switch
September 2022 NPD thread
October 2022 NPD thread
NPD Prediction Thread Archive
