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October 2023 NPD/Circana (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Monday, November 13 [RESULTS IN]

Welfare

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Scholar Archivist Staff
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NEW RULES + EXPLANATION
Because Michael Pachter of Wedbush Securities decided to stop subscribing to NPD last year, access to retail NPD appears to have been massively limited. Whether that's due to firms getting NPD through Pachter or agreeing with him that NPD data is worthless without digital sales (only video game companies that are on the digital board have access), leaks of hardware numbers might've dried up.

Fear not! I have a plan to remedy this set back so that this game can live on spirit. We will be transitioning away from predicting hardware units by console and instead be predicting Total Video Game Hardware Revenue and Order Of Consoles.

Every month NPD releases hardware revenue along with which console was in first place. We can always ask Mat Piscatella for the #2 console if he doesn't initially provide it.

How This Will Work
Predict how much revenue will be generated by Hardware for the given month as such

Good/Bad Formatting
Code:
Good                Bad
[REV] 405M          [REV] 400.5 million
[REV] 405,000,000   [REV] 405.000.000
[REV] 405000000     [REV] - 405000000

Then: Predict the order of each console FOR REVENUE as such

1. [NSW]
2. [PS5]
3. [XBS]

THE ABOVE IS IMPORTANT

The above is how you rank each console in terms of REVENUE. If you put NSW at 1., you are predicting NSW will be #1 in revenue.

Points
Hardware Revenue will be 50 points and follows how the hardware unit points work.

50 points * (percentage of correct revenue for hardware); anything over 100% difference = 0 points.

Correct Order would be the following in points.

If #1 correct = 18
If #2 correct = 10
If #3 correct = 7

If All Three correct = 15


That would be a total of 50 points to earn from console placements.

100 points in total to earn a month from the above two, plus bonus points for finishing in the Top 10 of hardware revenue.

#1 - 17 points
#2 - 13 points
#3 - 11 points
#4 - 9 points
#5 - 7 points
#6 - 5 points
#7 - 4 points
#8 - 3 points
#9 - 2 points
#10 - 1 point

Tradition Is Dead?
Not exactly. You will still put numbers down as if the game never changed. This will be your Unit ranking. Because I don't know if/when numbers will be made available again, there's always the potential they pop up again. If that happens, I want all of us to still make predictions as we have in the past.

RECAP
The 1.2.3. placements are how you will be ranking each platform for revenue. So if it's revealed PS5 was #1 in revenue and you had PS5 as 1., you get points for that.

The "traditional" predictions for unit sales will be separate to that. You can put whatever number you want there. You could have PS5 as 1. for revenue, but say you aren't sure about units and want to hedge your bets on Xbox being the actual unit lead. Example prediction below:

1. [PS5] 200K
2. [XBS] 300K
3. [NSW] 100K

This user has PS5 winning revenue, but Xbox for units. This is a valid prediction. How points are calculated are still the same 50 points assigned, but like this.

Each ranking still has the same value, If #1 correct = 18, If #2 correct = 10, If #3 correct = 7. If the revenue and unit results have the same placements, then nothing changes.

If revenue and unit placements/results are different, then points will be halved. Take the above example and we'll say the actual results are PS5 > XBS > NSW in both revenue and units.

The above predictor would get 9 points for predicting PS5 on top of revenue, but not the full 18 due to the unit placement. They would get 5 points for XBS for the same reason as PS5, then 7 points for NSW.

There are also bonus points for If All Three correct = 15. In this user's case, they'd only get 7.5 points as they got the correct revenue order, but not units.

In total they'd have 28.5 / 50 points.



ITT, predict for the Circana October 2023 retail period (October 1, 2023 - October 28, 2023) for U.S. hardware REVENUE and UNIT placements.

What is Circana?: Circana is one of the main retail tracking firms in the U.S., and also about the only one who specifically goes into detail on video games sales. This thread is to predict what the Circana hardware sales will be for the most recent month. Circana months are defined by the National Retail Federation (find calendar links here).
What do I win?: Bragging rights. We also keep track of predictions over the year and have an annual contest using "points." Still just bragging rights, but Sales followers have fun seeing how well we can do with it. See here for details on the point calculations. (Only used for Hardware Units)
Why are there still predictions when official Circana numbers are not released?:
Despite not receiving numbers from Circana directly since 2010, we have always found ways of obtaining them, whether through official company PR or leaks. These threads are also a place for the community to discuss the upcoming releases and current state of the US market as well as potential impacts in the future. In the end, it's for fun!

Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 8 p.m. EST on Monday, November 13. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

Circana Coverage: October 1, 2023 - October 28, 2023 (4 weeks, September was 5 weeks)
Circana Results Release: Tuesday, November 14 @ 9 a.m. EST? (PR + thread posted Wednesday, November 15 around 9 a.m EST)

Format:

[REV]

1. [NSW] XXX
2. [PS5] XXX
3. [XBS] XXX

Note: Combined totals for multi-SKUs. e.g. PS5 physical and digital edition total go under PS5. Xbox Series X and Xbox Series S total goes under XBS.

Good/Bad Formatting
Code:
Good                Bad
[REV] 405M          [REV] 400.5 million
[REV] 405,000,000   [REV] 405.000.000
[REV] 405000000     [REV] - 405000000

Code:
Good              Bad
[XBS] 1200K       [XBS] 1.2 million
[XBS] 1,200,000   [XBS] 1.200.000
[XBS] 1200000     [XBS] - 1200000

Potential hardware impacting events in October:
Assassins Creed Mirage (PS5/XBS) - October 5 (24 days in tracking) (4 weeks)
NHL 24 (PS5/XBS) - October 6 (23 days in tracking) (4 weeks)

PS5
Spider-Man 2 - October 20 (8 days in tracking) (2 weeks)

Spider-Man 2 Bundle $569 - October 20 (8 days in tracking) (2 weeks)

Xbox
Forza Motorsport - October 10 (18 days in tracking) (3 weeks)

Numerous $499 deal on Series X bundles throughout the month

Switch
Super Mario Bros. Wonder - October 20 (8 days in tracking) (2 weeks)

Mario Red OLED $349 - October 6 - August 31 (31 days in tracking) (4 weeks)
Mario Mart 8 Deluxe Neon Switch bundle $299 - October 6 (23 days in tracking) (4 weeks)
Animal Crossing New Horizons Switch Lite Coral bundle $199 - October 6 (23 days in tracking) (4 weeks)
Animal Crossing New Horizons Switch Lite Turquoise bundle $199 - October 6 (23 days in tracking) (4 weeks)

Video Game Hardware Prices
Switch: $199/$299/$349/$359 (Lite/Regular/OLED/Zelda)
Xbox Series: $299/$499 (S/X) | $559 (X Forza Bundle/X Diablo 4 Bundle)
PS5: $399/$499 (Digital/Regular) | $459 (Digital GOW) | $559 (PS5 Bundles) | $599 (Spider-Man 2 Limited Bundle)

Older Hardware, ROG Ally, Logitech G Cloud, Arcade cabinets: ???

Recent History of October Hardware Revenue
image.png


October 2022 Units
PS5: 456K (Call of Duty Modern Warfare 2)
XBS: 261K (Call of Duty Modern Warfare 2)
NSW: ???

September 2023 Rankings
Units: 1) PS5 2) XBS 3) Switch
Dollars: 1) PS5 2) XBS 3) Switch

September 2022 NPD thread
October 2022 NPD thread

NPD Prediction Thread Archive
 
[REV] 335M

1. [PS5] 320K
2. [XBS] 200K
3. [NSW] 230K
 
Last edited:
[REV] 380M

1. [PS5] 380K
2. [NSW] 310K
3. [XBS] 205K
 
Last edited:
I've added bets to this month

Spider-Man 2 VS Super Mario Wonder (October 2023)
Spider-Man 2 is #1

Super Mario Wonder is #1

October 2023 Software
Spider-Man 2 and Super Mario Wonder debut in the Top 20 Year to Date Ranking ABOVE Starfield
Starfield ranks ahead of Spider-Man 2 and Super Mario Wonder in the Top 20 Year to Date

Starfield, Mortal Kombat 1, EA FC 24, Spider-Man 2, and Super Mario Wonder all occupy the Top 10 Year to Date ranking (order does not matter)

Madden 24 > EA FC 24
EA FC 24 > Madden 24

Assassin's Creed Mirage places in the Top 4
Mortal Kombat 1 stays in the Top 5
NHL 24 places in the Top 8
Sonic Superstars places in the Top 10
Forza Motorsport places outside the Top 10
Forza Motorsport places in the Top 10

Detective Pikachu Returns places in the Top 14

Starfield is outside the Top 5
Starfield remains in the Top 3
 
Install Base Prediction Average
REV: 353.00M (Standard deviation = 22M)

PS5: 353K (Standard deviation = 35K)
NSW: 251K (Standard deviation = 33K)
XBS: 214K (Standard deviation = 12K)
 
NPD Prediction Results - October 2023

Revenue

Result: $327M

PlaceUserRevenue Difference
1derby_4403,000,000
2Quinton3,000,000
3awng7827,000,000
4Welfare8,000,000
5NobsPlaystation9,000,000
6Astrogamer13,000,000
7BTB12313,000,000
8Limabean0113,000,000
9Astral_lion0213,000,000
10Myriotes18,000,000
11GaiusBaltar2528,000,000
12Xevross30,000,000
13Avitsky43,000,000
14Malden43,000,000
15Mcbel43,000,000
16GamingCJ48,000,000
17Fatih_65653,000,000
18jroc7453,000,000
19The Hunter73,000,000

Congrats to @derby_440 and @Quinton ! 2/19 (11%) were within 1% of the actual result. 9/19 (47%) were within 5% and 12/19 (63%) were within 10%.

Points
Now points will not include the two lowest results if you have 9 months of results or more.

Code:
October 2023                     Overall 2023    (8/10)   
1.  derby_440      116.54        Xevross           803.39
2.  Quinton        116.54        awng782           795.27
3.  awng782        109.93        GaiusBaltar25     786.59
4.  Welfare        107.78        BTB123            784.52
5.  Astral_lion02  103.01        The Hunter        772.39
6.  Astrogamer     103.01        Astral_lion02     769.85
7.  BTB123         103.01        Welfare           769.01
8.  Limabean01     103.01        jroc74            767.22
9.  Myriotes        98.25        Myriotes          752.78
10. GaiusBaltar25   95.72        Fatih_656         746.04
11. Xevross         95.41        Astrogamer        744.56
12. Avitsky         93.43        NobsPlaystation   743.86
13. Mcbel           93.43        Malden            725.82
14. GamingCJ        92.66        Kenka             644.32
15. jroc74          91.90        m051293           555.24
16. The Hunter      88.84        Avitsky           453.90
17. NobsPlaystation 82.12        Limabean01        445.27
18. Fatih_656       68.40        The_Liquid_Laser  424.49
19. Malden          55.93        derby_440         376.14
20.                              Ystad             347.93
21.                              SSN               339.61
22.                              Mcbel             265.88
23.                              Quinton           222.80
24.                              Maluigi           216.69
25.                              POE               210.57
26.                              Lelouch0612       174.89
27.                              Flakster99        158.74
28.                              Anthony_The_Ghost 109.98
29.                              Bodokoh           108.26
30.                              Cobalt            103.35
31.                              Vena               98.22
32.                              Banjokazooie1992   97.49
33.                              Pavolink           97.36
34.                              BoktaiFan          96.26
35.                              Whats a Gyme       96.26
36.                              LOCK               94.38
37.                              GamingCJ           92.66
38.                              gtj1982            73.47
39.                              menx64             21.00

Congratulations to @derby_440 and @Quinton for winning in points!
 
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