NPD's H2 forecast and predictions

[Lelouch0612]

Mat Piscatella, from NPD, made his usual blog post as we enter the 2nd half of the year. Here are his expectations of H2 2022:

Market decline :

Top 10 software :

Projected among the top 10 best-selling premium games of 2022 are (in alphabetical order): Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2, Elden Ring, God of War Ragnarök, Gotham Knights, Horizon: Forbidden West, LEGO Star Wars: The Skywalker Saga, Madden NFL 23, NBA 2K23, Pokémon Legends: Arceus, and Pokémon Scarlet/Violet. This is, of course, pending changes to assumed release timing for announced games, and any surprise releases the market may see.

Predictions :

• Switch will lead 2022 console hardware in units sold, with dollar leadership a too-close-to-call race between Switch, PlayStation 5, and Xbox Series.
• Xbox Series will be the only console hardware platform to show dollar sales growth compared to 2021.
• Hardware shortages will continue into 2023, particularly on PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X, while potentially impacting other segments such as VR.
• Elden Ring will finish as 2022’s best-selling premium game in the U.S. market, marking only the 3rd time since 2009 that a Call of Duty franchise release does not lead the market.
• Despite Elden Ring leading the individual title charts, Call of Duty will remain the U.S. market’s best-selling premium gaming franchise for a record 14th consecutive year.
• Increased PC GPU availability and price declines will incentivize PC gamers to upgrade and make PC gaming an even more appealing consumer option.
• Subscription will be 2022’s only video game content growth segment.

More at the link : https://www.npd.com/news/blog/2022/2022s-video-game-market-declines-expected-to-continue/

 

[Lelouch0612]

As of May 2022 :

 

[Himura Kenshin]

• Hardware shortages will continue into 2023, particularly on PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X, while potentially impacting other segments such as VR.

This is what I suspect and I believe a reason why we won't see PSVR2 this year. All signs pointed to Sony wanting to release it in 2022 including an uncharacteristically early reveal and discussion, but it seems 2023 will be the year as we are already in July with no formal announcement.

I don't not see how Sony expects to reach their projection of 18 million PS5s for 22/23. They made that in May and I assumed we'd see some noticeable upticks in stock by now but so far I'm not seeing it, though it could be specifically about the holidays.

 

[awng782]

Mat expecting PS5 HW to be down YoY means he doesn't expect supply to materially improve this year.

If that's indeed the case, then Sony will miss their 18M HW forecast by a decent margin.

 

[Blue Monty]

Mat expecting PS5 HW to be down YoY means he doesn't expect supply to materially improve this year.

If that's indeed the case, then Sony will miss their 18M HW forecast by a decent margin.

Does he has sources that would allow him to know PS5 shippments 3/4 months from now?

 

[Himura Kenshin]

Mat expecting PS5 HW to be down YoY means he doesn't expect supply to materially improve this year.

If that's indeed the case, then Sony will miss their 18M HW forecast by a decent margin.

Well Matt is speaking specifically for NPD aka the United States, Sony's 18 million is a worldwide projection. They could be down in the US and still hit 18 million, I'm just saying I don't see how anywhere.

 

[MegaXZero]

Does he has sources that would allow him to know PS5 shippments 3/4 months from now?

No. He’s just using what he knows now from NPD and publicly available sources to make his predictions. He’ll change some as the year progresses, at least IIRC he did that for his expected top 10.

 

[Luminoth 4545]

Mat expecting PS5 HW to be down YoY means he doesn't expect supply to materially improve this year.

If that's indeed the case, then Sony will miss their 18M HW forecast by a decent margin.

This. How can PS5 reach it's target if they can't outsell last year NPD. Remember last FY only 11.5m and around 4.3M from US. PS5 needs around 5.5 to 6m from the US this FY. I always thought that target of 18m PS5's was outlandish, that is only 3m less than Switch. Japan by itself will be a difference of around 3m units in Switch's favour so PS5 has to match Switch in the America's, Europe and Other in unit sales and destroy it in dollar sales which is not going to happen with those massive supply issues. I'm predicting 14 to 15m for PS5 for the FY but I'm hoping for an optimistic 16m.

 

[awng782]

Does he has sources that would allow him to know PS5 shippments 3/4 months from now?

I doubt it. He is making a prediction, though one presumably based on the fact that PS5 sales are currently down YTD as of May.

 

[NediarPT88]

I wonder if HFW can stay in the top 10 now that is bundled.

If I'm not wrong NPD doesn't count those copies for these revenue charts.

 

[SoonyXboneUhh]

This. How can PS5 reach it's target if they can't outsell last year NPD. Remember last FY only 11.5m and around 4.3M from US. PS5 needs around 5.5 to 6m from the US this FY. I always thought that target of 18m PS5's was outlandish, that is only 3m less than Switch. Japan by itself will be a difference of around 3m units in Switch's favour so PS5 has to match Switch in the America's, Europe and Other in unit sales and destroy it in dollar sales which is not going to happen with those massive supply issues. I'm predicting 14 to 15m for PS5 for the FY but I'm hoping for an optimistic 16m.

Sony is now doing more expensive hard bundles.
So the ASP is even going up. Could be offset by a higher digital edition share, tho.
At the end of the day, even just 4m PS5, could result in higher $ sales. It will depend how much Sony will push the HZD bundle.
I also wonder if they're bee nice and do a God of War Bundle for the holidays for $550 / $450.
They also need to do their first custom console at some point. The next big game is Spider - Man 2.

I wonder if HFW can stay in the top 10 now that is bundled.

If I'm not wrong NPD doesn't count those copies for these revenue charts.

No, not counted. Neither as a unit, nor as $revenue for the software. It's part of $revenue for hardware. Same like the Halo Infinite hard bundle in 2021

 

[Kmds]

All I know is that Sony's goal of more than 50% market share is just a pipedream. The only possible but still very unlikely metric is revenue as all others have a 0.1% chance of happening.

 

[Lelouch0612]

Mat is more bullish than I am on Gotham Knights. I fear the game might underperform.

 

[TheSilentWombat]

Mat is more bullish than I am on Gotham Knights. I fear the game might underperform.

I agree, I think top 10 is a very optimistic prediction for the game, I don’t think it will do bad per se but I don’t see it doing good enough to make it that high in the NPD. I feel like top 20 is a more reasonable prediction for it.

 

[SoonyXboneUhh]

I agree, I think top 10 is a very optimistic prediction for the game, I don’t think it will do bad per se but I don’t see it doing good enough to make it that high in the NPD. I feel like top 20 is a more reasonable prediction for it.

I believe he is going by franchise strength. Hence Batman > Harry Potter.
But I can easily see one or the other exchanged. Quality does matter. Reception, word of mouth and maybe some lucky and release time.
What about Social Media engagement. Seems a bit higher for Harry Potter than Batman, right?

 

[Jorge]

All I know is that Sony's goal of more than 50% market share is just a pipedream. The only possible but still very unlikely metric is revenue as all others have a 0.1% chance of happening.

Where did they say that?

 

[SoonyXboneUhh]

Where did they say that?

They wanted to increase market share over last gen. (I mean you have to aim for that. It's not like you can make a goal of losing market share)
That was against Wii U and Xbox One.
So one can call that a pipe dream. I'm not certain anymore when that investor presentation was. It was very early into the new gen.

 

[awng782]

Yeah, barring amazing reviews, I'd be shocked if Gotham Knights was one of the year's top 10 best-selling games.

Batman Arkham Knight wasn't even one of the top 10 best-selling games of 2015, and that was the fastest-selling superhero game of all time when it launched. It also launched in late June rather than later Oct, so it had 4 more months of tracking.

 

[Jorge]

They wanted to increase market share over last gen. (I mean you have to aim for that. It's not like you can make a goal of losing market share)
That was against Wii U and Xbox One.
So one can call that a pipe dream. I'm not certain anymore when that investor presentation was. It was very early into the new gen.

Oh righr I remembered, it was first shown in their 2022 fiscal year report I think.

Yeah with nintendo in full force, switch 2 jut at the corner, shortages and MS finally taking the xbox division seriously buying entire publishers and thus getting control of big gaming IPs to market their console, service, ecosystem...etc. I cant see it.

 

[adriandlte]

Mat is more bullish than I am on Gotham Knights. I fear the game might underperform.

I agree.

 

[BassForever]

I believe he is going by franchise strength. Hence Batman > Harry Potter.
But I can easily see one or the other exchanged. Quality does matter. Reception, word of mouth and maybe some lucky and release time.
What about Social Media engagement. Seems a bit higher for Harry Potter than Batman, right?

The only negative buzz around the new Harry Potter game is because of Terf Rowling continuing to make everything about HP uncomfortable. Now that's a really big negative in the circles a lot of people here run in, but for a general audience it means jack shit. Even ignoring Terf Rowling, this Hp game is probably the most hyped people have been for a new HP thing since the first Fantastic Beast film.

 

[NediarPT88]

Mat is more bullish than I am on Gotham Knights. I fear the game might underperform.

Yup, I agree with you.

I went to check previous numbers and apparently Arkham Origins did less than <650k in its launch month.

In comparison Rocksteady games like City and Knight did >1.5M.

Maybe Mat is basing his predictions on Rocksteady games performance, but Gotham Knights doesn't look anywhere near as good as those games.

 

[MysticGon]

I think Elden Ring can hold off Madden, God of War and Pokemon for best selling game of year year but will ultimately come is second place because Modern Warfare 2 will do absolute work on the rest of the market. I expect it to be the biggest launch for the series since BLOPS 3.

Edit: MW1 already was and I expect it to be bigger.

 

[enpleinjour]

Mat expecting PS5 HW to be down YoY means he doesn't expect supply to materially improve this year.

If that's indeed the case, then Sony will miss their 18M HW forecast by a decent margin.

Mats not privy to how Sony distributes its stock worldwide or later in the year. Only Sony can show that by increasing monthly shipments. 18M is a big number, they should be ramping up significantly in September and we might see big stacking for the holidays with God of War.

If I don't see big shipments by September end then I'm going to assume they will miss 18M.

All I know is that Sony's goal of more than 50% market share is just a pipedream. The only possible but still very unlikely metric is revenue as all others have a 0.1% chance of happening.

Its not. It's a revenue stat and Playstation dominates in revenue compared to MS/Nintendo. They just predicted a $7B increase in revenue while Nintendo is declining and Xbox likely only increases by <10% (<$1.6B).

The sales of PS5 after shortages have ended is what will decide it and what acquisitions both sides make.

 

[Ghostsonplanets]

The fact Switch is predicted to lead in units and to stay competitive in revenue is so alien to me. The platform is on its 6th year. That's an unreal performance being showed by the system.

Mat is more bullish than I am on Gotham Knights. I fear the game might underperform.

So far I don't see what Gotham Knights has showed for him to be so confident. But perhaps the 4 player coop might be a bigger draw than what is expected. I also do expect to underperform compared to past Batman games.

I think Elden Ring can hold off Madden, God of War and Pokemon for best selling game of year year but will ultimately come is second place because Modern Warfare 2 will do absolute work on the rest of the market. I expect it to be the biggest launch for the series since BLOPS 3.

Edit: MW1 already was and I expect it to be bigger.

Yep. MW2 will be absolutely huge! MW1 is the most beloved entry in the franchise since OG MW2. From the COD community I'm in, everyone has been expecting this game since the first one. Both MP and SP wise. The thing that it might impede its dominance is if the rumored Warzone 2 draws players away from it. At least in the initial months.

 

[ILikeFeet]

• Increased PC GPU availability and price declines will incentivize PC gamers to upgrade and make PC gaming an even more appealing consumer option.

right now, it's looking like people will be moving to the glut of used gpus while the newer RDNA3 and Lovelace gpus might struggle to gain position. though this would be offset by their high prices at least

 

[Joxer]

The only negative buzz around the new Harry Potter game is because of Terf Rowling continuing to make everything about HP uncomfortable. Now that's a really big negative in the circles a lot of people here run in, but for a general audience it means jack shit. Even ignoring Terf Rowling, this Hp game is probably the most hyped people have been for a new HP thing since the first Fantastic Beast film.

Even on just a surface level, the Hogwarts game looks far more visually appealing. It is also scheduled to launch on Switch (but will be delayed to an unspecified date shortly before release).

I think Elden Ring can hold off Madden, God of War and Pokemon for best selling game of year year but will ultimately come is second place because Modern Warfare 2 will do absolute work on the rest of the market. I expect it to be the biggest launch for the series since BLOPS 3.

Edit: MW1 already was and I expect it to be bigger.

Even if a new Animal Crossing or Mario Kart were released in January, they'd still be unlikely to top the NPD rankings for the year because up to 50% of their sales would not be reported.

 

[Kmds]

Mats not privy to how Sony distributes its stock worldwide or later in the year. Only Sony can show that by increasing monthly shipments. 18M is a big number, they should be ramping up significantly in September and we might see big stacking for the holidays with God of War.

If I don't see big shipments by September end then I'm going to assume they will miss 18M.



Its not. It's a revenue stat and Playstation dominates in revenue compared to MS/Nintendo. They just predicted a $7B increase in revenue while Nintendo is declining and Xbox likely only increases by <10% (<$1.6B).

The sales of PS5 after shortages have ended is what will decide it and what acquisitions both sides make.

Let me just start with what will happen with switch 2, it sells 22 million in a fiscal yr(4,4,4,10 million quarters) at $400 and not the prices that the switch variants have and also around 300 million software sales (switch+switch2) because that's what Sony does. You seriously think it'll still be distant, I don't.

Next switch and PS5 imo will both be around equal revenue of around $30 Billion a year and also Xbox that's doing better than ever and yeah absolutely no chance that happens this decade.

 

[reksveks]

They wanted to increase market share over last gen. (I mean you have to aim for that. It's not like you can make a goal of losing market share)
That was against Wii U and Xbox One.
So one can call that a pipe dream. I'm not certain anymore when that investor presentation was. It was very early into the new gen.

It's been in two presentations now, it's in the FY ending slides.

Already did some basic calculations on this topic not including fx changes.

Post in thread 'PS5 Top 11 "Active Console Volume" Nations As Of March 2022 + PC Game Sales + More' https://www.installbaseforum.com/fo...-march-2022-pc-game-sales-more.812/post-75524

The only thing that I can think is if the USD weakens dramatically especially if it happens in regions that Sony is much stronger in. If the USD strengthens, I think it ultimately helps MS.

 

[Ryng™]

• Xbox Series will be the only console hardware platform to show dollar sales growth compared to 2021.

That's interesting, PS5 potentially down YOY uh

 

[Reineldinho]

Not the biggest baseball fan (only like it in movies but it seems that MBL going multiplatform has payed off apparently. Top5 without including xbox or swicht sales seems good enough.

 

[Blue Monty]

Not the biggest baseball fan (only like it in movies but it seems that MBL going multiplatform has payed off apparently. Top5 without including xbox or swicht sales seems good enough.

It includes Xbox/Switch sales but not their digital sales due to the publisher of these versions not being part of the publisher list that share data to NPD.

 

[La Leganto]

Elden Ring will finish as 2022’s best-selling premium game in the U.S. market, marking only the 3rd time since 2009 that a Call of Duty franchise release does not lead the market.

Despite Elden Ring leading the individual title charts, Call of Duty will remain the U.S. market’s best-selling premium gaming franchise for a record 14th consecutive year.

I do not get it.

What is a "premium game" in US of A?

 

[Simar]

I do not get it.

What is a "premium game" in US of A?

Basically "Not F2P". Games you have to buy before you play them.

 

[Damage2]

I think he is expecting too much of Gotham Knights and underestimating Hogwarts Legacy

 

[Undead Warrior]

Its not. It's a revenue stat and Playstation dominates in revenue compared to MS/Nintendo. They just predicted a $7B increase in revenue while Nintendo is declining and Xbox likely only increases by <10% (<$1.6B).

The sales of PS5 after shortages have ended is what will decide it and what acquisitions both sides make.

How many times do we have to teach you this lesson, old man? You're still counting Sony's cooked digital revenue. Even still, revenue isn't the be-all, end-all metric you appear to think it is.

 

[enpleinjour]

Let me just start with what will happen with switch 2, it sells 22 million in a fiscal yr(4,4,4,10 million quarters) at $400 and not the prices that the switch variants have and also around 300 million software sales (switch+switch2) because that's what Sony does. You seriously think it'll still be distant, I don't.

Next switch and PS5 imo will both be around equal revenue of around $30 Billion a year and also Xbox that's doing better than ever and yeah absolutely no chance that happens this decade.

Numbers pulled from air here. Switch's peak is far far behind Playstation's peak, which has not even peaked. Sony is predicting a peak of $40B+

How many times do we have to teach you this lesson, old man? You're still counting Sony's cooked digital revenue. Even still, revenue isn't the be-all, end-all metric you appear to think it is.

Even with a 30% cut on digital, Playstation still dominates and the growth is so so far ahead of Nintendo and Xbox this year. $7B vs negative for Nintendo and $1-1.5B for Xbox.

 

[reksveks]

$7B vs negative for Nintendo and $1-1.5B for Xbox.

You talking about Sony's forecast growth?

Also was that over the next 4 FY? Or this year?

 

[fiendcode]

Sony's been having a track record of overshooting PlayStation forecasts in recent years. Better to wait and look at actual results.

 

[enpleinjour]

You talking about Sony's forecast growth?

Also was that over the next 4 FY? Or this year?

FY22, though the dollar amount fluctuates due to recent forex. Yen wise, I believe its 34% growth, which is insane considering revenue is already tens of billions. I mentioned it prior, its due to the stacking of several factors: PS 1st party selling more and at $70, PS+ tiers, PSVR2, 50% increase in PS hardware, growth from third party sales, Bungie accounted.

 

[reksveks]

It will be interesting to see how accurate that forecast is. I am not expecting any amount of growth from third party sales personally this year although maybe CoD/Warzone 2 is able to do blockbusters. I am also unsure on how many psvr2 units they will sell in this FY.

16 days until we get a bit more insight.

 

[Jorge]

It will be interesting to see how accurate that forecast is. I am not expecting any amount of growth from third party sales personally this year although maybe CoD/Warzone 2 is able to do blockbusters. I am also unsure on how many psvr2 units they will sell in this FY.

16 days until we get a bit more insight.

Why 16 days?

 

[awng782]

Why 16 days?

Sony's FY3/2022 Q1 results

 

[reksveks]

A little foreboding should be interesting to see what June numbers look like.

 

[The_Liquid_Laser]

Mat is more bullish than I am on Gotham Knights. I fear the game might underperform.

I agree. For top 10 games of the year I'd probably swap it out for Switch Sports. I know it didn't have an impressive launch, but it has those legs.

 

[Golvellius]

Even with a 30% cut on digital, Playstation still dominates and the growth is so so far ahead of Nintendo and Xbox this year. $7B vs negative for Nintendo and $1-1.5B for Xbox.

Wow, I didn't know Sony dominates that much. The Activision deal should easily go through then.

 

[Bodokoh]

Numbers pulled from air here. Switch's peak is far far behind Playstation's peak, which has not even peaked. Sony is predicting a peak of $40B+



Even with a 30% cut on digital, Playstation still dominates and the growth is so so far ahead of Nintendo and Xbox this year. $7B vs negative for Nintendo and $1-1.5B for Xbox.

Profit is the most important metric where Sony is being destroyed by Nintendo. Kinda hard for them to accept when Nintendo Switch is more profitable than PS1+PS2+PS3+PS4+PSV+PS5 combined.

 

[Lelouch0612]

Numbers pulled from air here. Switch's peak is far far behind Playstation's peak, which has not even peaked. Sony is predicting a peak of $40B+

Even with a 30% cut on digital, Playstation still dominates and the growth is so so far ahead of Nintendo and Xbox this year. $7B vs negative for Nintendo and $1-1.5B for Xbox.

Profit is the most important metric where Sony is being destroyed by Nintendo. Kinda hard for them to accept when Nintendo Switch is more profitable than PS1+PS2+PS3+PS4+PSV+PS5 combined.

Let's drop the pissing contest, there are more interesting and relevant topics to discuss in this thread.

 

[reksveks]

Let's drop the pissing contest, there are more interesting and relevant topics to discuss in this thread.

Beat me to it.

Sensor Tower did drop their h1 world blog post for mobile yesterday but not US specific. Mobile results today should be interesting.

Interestingly non-gaming revenue was bigger than gaming on ios devices for the first time. It sounds like subscription services grew a decent amount.

 

[enpleinjour]

Beat me to it.

Sensor Tower did drop their h1 world blog post for mobile yesterday but not US specific. Mobile results today should be interesting.

Interestingly non-gaming revenue was bigger than gaming on ios devices for the first time. It sounds like subscription services grew a decent amount.

Saw that, wasn't it for US only. Iirc China and Japan are hugely titled to game revenue, something like 70% in Japan.