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NPD September 2022: #1 FIFA #3 NBA #4 Splatoon 3 #5 TLOU Part 1; PS5 #1 Units (NSW #2) / PS5 #1 Revenue (XBS #2)

Pretty expected. I knew NBA 2K23 would be major competition for Splatoon 3. I also knew Last of Us would do great (at least in its 1st month) because of the price, earlier release and digital being included. It’s right under Splatoon 3.

That’s a great debut for Splatoon 3, especially considering the competition. Can’t wait for early November though lol.

It will be one of the biggest 1st party games released this year on a WW scale when it’s all said and done. Only behind Mainline Pokémon & God of War. Maybe Switch Sports lol.
 

Aostia82

Member
waiting for some insight, I'd say that

PS5 doing greatly, with stock available
Sports games strong as usual
Splatoon being there without digital points to another great launch
Turtles and JoJo unexpected, but glad to see them both!
 

awng782

Member
I didnt expect FIFA above Madden or NBA 2K above Splatoon. The latter can be explained by NBA 2K being more expensive (and having a several even more expensive deluxe/special editon SKUs).
 
No, you're not thinking clearly. Digital is not included for Nintendo titles. With digital it would at least be 2 or 3 in the charts.

That is factually wrong, as Splatoon 2 itself sold over 8 million outside Japan.

How much do you expect Splatoon 3 to sell WW? The 2nd game has sold 13.3M (8.2M of that outside of Japan) so far.
The ip is not showing the same growth WW as it is in Japan (at least to me). Speaking of WW sales, I’m now more curious as to what’s the divide going to be between JP and WW sales compared to Splatoon 2. It seems to be widening further and further each entry. Not sure whether that’s a good thing. It’s like a reverse Zelda pre-BOTW.
 

cw_sasuke

Member
The ip is not showing the same growth WW as it is in Japan (at least to me). Speaking of WW sales, I’m now more curious as to what’s the divide going to be between JP and WW sales compared to Splatoon 2. It seems to be widening further and further each entry. Not sure whether that’s a good thing. It’s like a reverse Zelda pre-BOTW.

Why would it ? It was never going to be as big as it is in Japan relatively speaking.
Being disappointing is the expected outcome when you have unrealistic expectations to begin with.

How about we let these releases breathe for a bit when there is still so much data (digital) missing and we only have month of charts.

Just dont know why Splatoon 3 physical should be able to outsell Fifa, Madden and NBA 2K on their dozens of platforms and digital.
 

DrWong

Oct. Gold by units, yep.
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The ip is not showing the same growth WW as it is in Japan (at least to me). Speaking of WW sales, I’m now more curious as to what’s the divide going to be between JP and WW sales compared to Splatoon 2. It seems to be widening further and further each entry. Not sure whether that’s a good thing. It’s like a reverse Zelda pre-BOTW.
It's the absolute best launch ever like never seen before like never never in Japan... yeah, in comparison it bombed in the US. Case closed. It will just sell +10M ltd in the west *at worst) when it will do that in jp alone. Clever comparison.
 
Hm. I did not expect the PS5 to be #1 in units again. And according to the report it was by itself the "primary driver" of sales growth over Sept. 2021. With an only 19% increase in YoY revenue, this likely means that both the Switch and XBS probably saw at best a relatively small increase over August (in terms of weekly averages) or even compared to September of last year.

I have to go to work later today, but I might crunch some numbers some time tomorrow if I'm not doing anything.


If Halo sold consoles, why was each successive Xbox outsold heavily? With the original Xbox only selling ~25million despite having the mighty Halo CE?

(Note: I was in the middle of writing this reply when the new thread went live, so I had to move it to this thread to finish it up.)

Halo always did sell consoles. It's just that some people overestimate how many consoles individual titles actually sell. It's important to remember that even with the biggest system-sellers, the vast majority of copies sold of any given game go to existing customers. Furthermore, the impact of any individual game, if any, are almost always relatively short-lived, lasting maybe a month or two, which means that nearly everybody that decided to get a system for that particular game did so within a relatively short window after the game's release. The end result of both of those factors is that even the biggest system-sellers might result in only a couple hundred thousand extra systems sold.

Of course, that doesn't really apply to games released at launch. With launch titles, even a major one like Halo CE, it's hard to tell how much hardware they shifted due to an obvious lack of a previous baseline to compare numbers to. But for most games we can make a comparison to estimate how much surplus hardware a game shifted, and available data shows that Halo did move hardware.
 
OP
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Welfare

Welfare

¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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Looking at it all, I think every console sold >300K, with PS5 selling >400K. Switch not being up double digits YOY puts a cap on its revenue that Xbox is then over.

It's hard to tell how high PS5 should be but I'm guessing the unit growth YOY isn't substantial, looking at other regions performances in September. Xbox saw great growth in Europe in September from August and these results point to the US improving as well. I can only assume it's due to an uptick in S sales because X was less and less available as the month went on.
 

Tbone5189

Member
The ip is not showing the same growth WW as it is in Japan (at least to me). Speaking of WW sales, I’m now more curious as to what’s the divide going to be between JP and WW sales compared to Splatoon 2. It seems to be widening further and further each entry. Not sure whether that’s a good thing. It’s like a reverse Zelda pre-BOTW.

"Splatoon continues to be a japan only type of thing. Interesting" yeah but no, your post comes across negative for no reason. You could of said something in comparison to growth but you chose to say splatoon is japan only type of thing basically saying it only does well in japan. 8mil outside of japan is huge which most games cant crack 5mil let alone 8mil (outside of japan)
 

xV_twist

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The ip is not showing the same growth WW as it is in Japan (at least to me). Speaking of WW sales, I’m now more curious as to what’s the divide going to be between JP and WW sales compared to Splatoon 2. It seems to be widening further and further each entry. Not sure whether that’s a good thing. It’s like a reverse Zelda pre-BOTW.
You said "Splatoon continues to be a japan only thing"
Selling 8M outside of Japan means that statement is 100% wrong no matter your expectations.
 
Splatoon 3 is going to soar past 20 million lifetime sales. That's pretty solid growth over Splat2's 13.3 million no matter how you slice it.
 

AruanaRiva

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Splatoon may not experience the same insane growth that it got in Japan, but considering its 8m sold before for Splat 2. Even 40% growth of that number will put it 12m ww with growth of switch users and bigger Asia users this time the region which experience growth for Nintendo the most this gen.

That will have put it into 20m+ seller which i doubt anyone should have any complain regarding its sales power.
 

PillFencer

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"Splatoon continues to be a japan only type of thing. Interesting" yeah but no, your post comes across negative for no reason. You could of said something in comparison to growth but you chose to say splatoon is japan only type of thing basically saying it only does well in japan. 8mil outside of japan is huge which most games cant crack 5mil let alone 8mil (outside of japan)
Splatoon 2 West outsold every Zelda WW except for BotW, so I guess Zelda literally didn't exist before BotW 🤔
 

Tbone5189

Member
Splatoon 2 West outsold every Zelda WW except for BotW, so I guess Zelda literally didn't exist before BotW 🤔

dont bring zelda into this arguement! but yeah, if he meant like growth in comparsion he should of said so instead of trying to deflect what many people quoted him on
 

My Tulpa

Member
Thanks @Welfare for the thread and a bit disappointed by the lack of highlights for software. Makes the report even more dry than usual.

Yea, really difficult to put this month and game sales in any good context because we have very little to go on.

How big is the drop from Splatoon 3 physical sales at $60 to TMNT physical + digital sales at $40? I’m betting it’s pretty substantial.

It’s hard to say where TLOU Part 1 at $70 (both physical and digital sales counted) fits between there in terms of sales. Theoretically, it could have sold far less units than TMNT.

Horizon Forbidden West is #5 on the best selling YTD. But what does that really mean when just physical Mario Kart 8 sales are still in the top 10 at $10 less a pop?

We know that from Jan-Sept last year, Mario Kart 8 sold 4.6 million units outside of Japan. And that’s roughly ~2.2 million physical sales. How much share does the US usually make of a game for all the territories outside of the Japan?

Even if US makes up half software sales, that’s ~1 million in physical sales, and that put it at #7 on last years YTD list. It’s # 10 now, so we could be looking at a number less than 1 million units for the year.

Look, Horizon 2 selling ~1-2 million in the US alone is nothing to sneeze at! I’m not saying it isn’t. Just that ranking alone the way NPD does it can make games seem to do better/worse than they actually did. In terms of how many people bought the game, that is lol

But even so it’s current result is very good. The sports games above it; are multiplat.

Multiplat…as well as generally higher price (including premium skus) and digital sales included

Splatoon 3 sales are very very good.

Pretty expected. I knew NBA 2K23 would be major competition for Splatoon 3.

I’m betting Splatoon 3 sold more units than NBA 2K23, after you factor in the major price differences.

I’m pretty sure Splatoon 3 would hit at least the #2 spot in terms of units sold after you account for digital sales and price difference.

I also knew Last of Us would do great (at least in its 1st month) because of the price, earlier release and digital being included. It’s right under Splatoon 3.

We all figured Last of Us would rank better than the 2nd month sales of the Saints Row reboot. It’s right above it.

Another way to look at it :p

(Again, just a commentary about the drop off differences in sales between Splatoon 3 and the 2nd month of Saints Row sales)
 
Splatoon only losing to sportsball games in the US is absolutely enormous and that's without any digital sales counted (which my copy was one of). I'd say that November report is gonna tell us the game is probably pushing 10 million worldwide sales already.

Without knowing how far Madden is from Splatoon 3 for all we know Splatoon may have sold less than 200k in Sept. It;s the biggest issue with these dollar sale charts compared to unit charts, because at least with those you can find out the sales of one game and guesstimate the rest.

Saints Row is 7 in dollar sales, but how many units did it sell? Did TMNT sell more units or did Saints Row sell more units with deals? For all we know Madden is actually number 1 in unit sales and is 400K ahead of the nearest competitor. Impossible to tell.

This is especially true for PS5 games that are generally $70, and so will Ubisoft games in the future.

150k sales at $70 vs. 200k sales at $60 puts games in different chart placements when you use dollar sale charts.

In the US, I would assume NBA did much better than Splatoon, but FIFA did worse than Splatoon (with digital) but these charts would make you second guess that.
 

Gina Lestrade

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Didn't honestly expect Splatoon 3 at retail only to outsell TLOU in total on a revenue based chart when the latter was more expensive. Expecting a very big number indeed WW for when Nintendo's results are published in November.
 

enpleinjour

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TLOU P1 seems to have been a success. Horizon FW legs continue to impress. Even GT7 has considerable legs in the US, something GT Sport lacked.

Just like the PS4, I think PS5's success and the increasing brand power of Playstation will continue to lift up the individual brand power of their exclusives. Which may be quite impressive, when their exclusives are now $70, maintain their high price, and the PS4 games already sold very well.

Hope to see those sales milestones soon so we can compare more accurately.

Always knew it was going to be a very strong year for Playstation Studios, they could end up with 5 titles in the Top 20 YTD.
 

Megiddo

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No need for passive-aggresiveness, it won't set up the discussion in good terms even if you have a good rebuttal.
Blatantly calling out a bad take and providing a direct example as to why it's a bad take is not in the least bit passive aggressive I'd say.
 
Didn't honestly expect Splatoon 3 at retail only to outsell TLOU in total on a revenue based chart when the latter was more expensive.

This is precisely why the current NPD reporting strategy is a problem. We have no idea how low or high un units TLOU pt1's placement actually is compared to Splatoon, and Splatoons placement compared to NBA.
 

Astrogamer

Member
TLOU P1 seems to have been a success. Horizon FW legs continue to impress. Even GT7 has considerable legs in the US, something GT Sport lacked.

Just like the PS4, I think PS5's success and the increasing brand power of Playstation will continue to lift up the individual brand power of their exclusives. Which may be quite impressive, when their exclusives are now $70, maintain their high price, and the PS4 games already sold very well.

Hope to see those sales milestones soon so we can compare more accurately.

Always knew it was going to be a very strong year for Playstation Studios, they could end up with 5 titles in the Top 20 YTD.
You do need to take in the context that the game TLOU is above is a $40 compilation of old games so, depending on your expectations, there's a wide range of sales. Conceivably, TLOU could have sold like 150k and it could have beaten TMNT.
 
The ip is not showing the same growth WW as it is in Japan (at least to me). Speaking of WW sales, I’m now more curious as to what’s the divide going to be between JP and WW sales compared to Splatoon 2. It seems to be widening further and further each entry. Not sure whether that’s a good thing. It’s like a reverse Zelda pre-BOTW.
It’s weird to me the posters I ask that question to never give a clear direct answer lol. Even if it doesn’t hit the same % of growth outside of Japan that it’s experiencing in Japan, it will still outsell Splatoon 2 lol. No amount of spin will be able to make a result like that seem like an underperformance lol.

We’ve went from Splatoon 3 not selling more than Splatoon 2 because it’s releasing late in the generation on the same console, to it’s not growing WW like it is in Japan lol.

It will sell 15-25M WW.
 

BoktaiFan

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You do need to take in the context that the game TLOU is above is a $40 compilation of old games so, depending on your expectations, there's a wide range of sales. Conceivably, TLOU could have sold like 150k and it could have beaten TMNT.
Yeah the lack of price parity and the lack of digital info on some titles makes the charts difficult to pin down specific performance.
 

Belthazar

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No need for passive-aggresiveness, it won't set up the discussion in good terms even if you have a good rebuttal.

I was not being passive-aggressive in any manner. I was merely wanting to know what was the basis for that take, because it made absolutely no sense to me.
 

Aleh

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Like, we literally don’t have ANY numbers for Splatoon 3 in the west lol.
 

allan-bh

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Didn't honestly expect Splatoon 3 at retail only to outsell TLOU in total on a revenue based chart when the latter was more expensive. Expecting a very big number indeed WW for when Nintendo's results are published in November.
I expected because I don't think TLOU sold that well and Splatoon 3 is a big launch.

Unfortunately we can only speculate, NPD ranking based on revenue and without digital for some games can be very misleading.
 
Yea, really difficult to put this month and game sales in any good context because we have very little to go on.

How big is the drop from Splatoon 3 physical sales at $60 to TMNT physical + digital sales at $40? I’m betting it’s pretty substantial.

It’s hard to say where TLOU Part 1 at $70 (both physical and digital sales counted) fits between there in terms of sales. Theoretically, it could have sold far less units than TMNT.

Horizon Forbidden West is #5 on the best selling YTD. But what does that really mean when just physical Mario Kart 8 sales are still in the top 10 at $10 less a pop?

We know that from Jan-Sept last year, Mario Kart 8 sold 4.6 million units outside of Japan. And that’s roughly ~2.2 million physical sales. How much share does the US usually make of a game for all the territories outside of the Japan?

Even if US makes up half software sales, that’s ~1 million in physical sales, and that put it at #7 on last years YTD list. It’s # 10 now, so we could be looking at a number less than 1 million units for the year.

Look, Horizon 2 selling ~1-2 million in the US alone is nothing to sneeze at! I’m not saying it isn’t. Just that ranking alone the way NPD does it can make games seem to do better/worse than they actually did. In terms of how many people bought the game, that is lol



Multiplat…as well as generally higher price (including premium skus) and digital sales included

Splatoon 3 sales are very very good.



I’m betting Splatoon 3 sold more units than NBA 2K23, after you factor in the major price differences.

I’m pretty sure Splatoon 3 would hit at least the #2 spot in terms of units sold after you account for digital sales and price difference.



We all figured Last of Us would rank better than the 2nd month sales of the Saints Row reboot. It’s right above it.

Another way to look at it :p

(Again, just a commentary about the drop off differences in sales between Splatoon 3 and the 2nd month of Saints Row sales)
When I was talking about competition I was thinking specifically about placement rather than raw sales. I wanted Splatoon 3 in the top 3 lol, but like you said, it still could of sold more in units (which is actually more important to me lol). I also predicted the Last of Us could potentially place higher than Splatoon 3 (because of the reasons I already stated earlier in this thread) weeks ago, and although it didn’t, it still ranked right under it. A lot of people didn’t even think it would be close lol.

The rest of your comment makes it even more painfully obvious how much NPD has fallen from grace when it comes to sales information. It’s actually quite disappointing, but any information is better than no information lol.

I miss the old NPD 😞
 

awng782

Member
I searched through some old NPD leaks and apparently Splatoon 2 sold ~332K retail copies in July 2017. That should give us a good bare minimum floor for Splatoon 3 retail sales.
 
Am I missing something? Did we get Splatoon 3 numbers with NPD? How is anyone claiming no growth without numbers? Because it's #4 against popular sports games that have like 3 different versions and digital sales? (minus NBA)
 
We won't have a clear picture on Splatoon's sales till the November report. Really though the more telling report will be the quarterly report after that, since the November one will only track the first three weeks of sales.
 
OP
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Welfare

Welfare

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Guessing Nintendo software in NPD is a waste of time. Digital will be a big part of sales and retail comparisons year over year(s) would be fruitless in determining actual success.
 

SpaceKingScot

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Sad to see XC3 drop off the chart, though it was expected. I'm still hopeful for when Nintendo drops data. Fingers crossed for north of 1.5m when the data arrives, I want that series to continue to grow.

This gives us a bit of a picture of Splatoon 3. Though as others have pointed out, we're waiting on data from Nintendo proper. Without digital, it's just not that revealing for a number still.
 
We won't have a clear picture on Splatoon's sales till the November report. Really though the more telling report will be the quarterly report after that, since the November one will only track the first three weeks of sales.
Right. I’m guessing around 8M for those 3wks. Will definitely be at 10-11M by January 2023. This is my safe choice lol.
 
By "double-digit percentage growth" for PS5 & XBS, did Piscatella mean revenue or units?

Also, did we ever by any chance find out the exact numbers for September of last year?
 
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