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November 2024 Circana (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Monday, December 16 [RESULTS IN]

Welfare

Welfare

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NEW RULES + EXPLANATION
Because Michael Pachter of Wedbush Securities decided to stop subscribing to NPD last year, access to retail NPD appears to have been massively limited. Whether that's due to firms getting NPD through Pachter or agreeing with him that NPD data is worthless without digital sales (only video game companies that are on the digital board have accAess), leaks of hardware numbers might've dried up.

Fear not! I have a plan to remedy this set back so that this game can live on spirit. We will be transitioning away from predicting hardware units by console and instead be predicting Total Video Game Hardware Revenue and Order of Consoles.

Every month NPD releases hardware revenue along with which console was in first place. We can always ask Mat Piscatella for the #2 console if he doesn't initially provide it.

How This Will Work
Predict how much revenue will be generated by Hardware for the given month as such

Good/Bad Formatting
Code: 
Good                Bad
[REV] 405M          [REV] 400.5 million
[REV] 405,000,000   [REV] 405.000.000
[REV] 405000000     [REV] - 405000000

Then: Predict the order of each console FOR REVENUE as such

1. [NSW]
2. [PS5]
3. [XBS]

THE ABOVE IS IMPORTANT

The above is how you rank each console in terms of REVENUE. If you put NSW at 1., you are predicting NSW will be #1 in revenue.

Points
Hardware Revenue will be 50 points and follows how the hardware unit points work.

50 points * (percentage of correct revenue for hardware); anything over 100% difference = 0 points.

Correct Order would be the following in points.

If #1 correct = 18
If #2 correct = 10
If #3 correct = 7

If All Three correct = 15

That would be a total of 50 points to earn from console placements.

100 points in total to earn a month from the above two, plus bonus points for finishing in the Top 10 of hardware revenue.

#1 - 17 points
#2 - 13 points
#3 - 11 points
#4 - 9 points
#5 - 7 points
#6 - 5 points
#7 - 4 points
#8 - 3 points
#9 - 2 points
#10 - 1 point

Tradition Is Dead?
Not exactly. You will still put numbers down as if the game never changed. This will be your Unit ranking. Because I don't know if/when numbers will be made available again, there's always the potential they pop up again. If that happens, I want all of us to still make predictions as we have in the past.

RECAP
The 1.2.3. placements are how you will be ranking each platform for revenue. So if it's revealed PS5 was #1 in revenue and you had PS5 as 1., you get points for that.

The "traditional" predictions for unit sales will be separate to that. You can put whatever number you want there. You could have PS5 as 1. for revenue, but say you aren't sure about units and want to hedge your bets on Xbox being the actual unit lead. Example prediction below:

1. [PS5] 200K
2. [XBS] 300K
3. [NSW] 100K

This user has PS5 winning revenue, but Xbox for units. This is a valid prediction. How points are calculated are still the same 50 points assigned, but like this.

Each ranking still has the same value, If #1 correct = 18, If #2 correct = 10, If #3 correct = 7. If the revenue and unit results have the same placements, then nothing changes.

If revenue and unit placements/results are different, then points will be halved. Take the above example and we'll say the actual results are PS5 > XBS > NSW in both revenue and units.

The above predictor would get 9 points for predicting PS5 on top of revenue, but not the full 18 due to the unit placement. They would get 5 points for XBS for the same reason as PS5, then 7 points for NSW.

There are also bonus points for the both unit and revenue rankings being correct = 15.


ITT, predict for the Circana November 2024 retail period (November 03, 2024 - November 30, 2024) for U.S. hardware REVENUE and UNIT placements.

What is Circana?: Circana is one of the main retail tracking firms in the U.S., and also about the only one who specifically goes into detail on video games sales. This thread is to predict what the Circana hardware sales will be for the most recent month. Circana months are defined by the National Retail Federation (find calendar links here).
What do I win?: Bragging rights. We also keep track of predictions over the year and have an annual contest using "points." Still just bragging rights, but Sales followers have fun seeing how well we can do with it. See here for details on the point calculations. (Only used for Hardware Units)
Why are there still predictions when official Circana numbers are not released?: Despite not receiving numbers from Circana directly since 2010, we have always found ways of obtaining them, whether through official company PR or leaks. These threads are also a place for the community to discuss the upcoming releases and current state of the US market as well as potential impacts in the future. In the end, it's for fun!

Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 8 p.m. EST on Monday, December 16. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

Circana Coverage: November 03, 2024 - November 30, 2024 (4 weeks, October was 4 weeks)
Circana Results Release: PR + thread posted Wednesday, December 18 around 9 a.m EST

Format:

[REV]

1. [NSW] XXX
2. [PS5] XXX
3. [XBS] XXX

Note: Combined totals for multi-SKUs. e.g. PS5 physical and digital edition total go under PS5. Xbox Series X and Xbox Series S total goes under XBS.

Good/Bad Formatting
Code: 
Good                Bad
[REV] 405M          [REV] 400.5 million
[REV] 405,000,000   [REV] 405.000.000
[REV] 405000000     [REV] - 405000000

Code: 
Good              Bad
[XBS] 1200K       [XBS] 1.2 million
[XBS] 1,200,000   [XBS] 1.200.000
[XBS] 1200000     [XBS] - 1200000

Potential hardware impacting events in November
[ALL] [Week 4] Black Friday

[PS5] [4 Weeks] $699 PS5 Pro Model 2TB
[PS5] [2 Weeks] $424 Disc Edition Fortnite Colbalt Star Bundle
[PS5] [2 Weeks] $374 Digital Edition Fortnite Colbalt Star Bundle
[PS5] [2 Weeks] Temporary Price Drop: Standard Edition $499 > $424 (November 22 - December 24)
[PS5] [2 Weeks] Temporary Price Drop: Digital Edition NBA 2K25 Bundle $499 > $374 (November 22 - December 24)
[PS5] [2 Weeks] Temporary Price Drop: Digital Edition $449 > $374 (November 22 - December 24)
[PS5] [2 Weeks] $499 Digital Edition 30th Anniversary Limited Edition
[PS5] [1 Week] $999 Pro Model 30th Anniversary Limited Edition

[XBS] [2 Weeks] Temporary Price Drop: $499 Series X 1TB > $449 (November 10 - November 23)* GameStop only had this for first 2 days
[XBS] [2 Weeks] [Walmart/Best Buy/Amazon] Temporary Price Drop: $449 Series X Digital Edition White 1TB > $399 (Walmart and Amazon $398) (November 21 - November 30, Walmart and Amazon started the 22nd)
[XBS] [2 Weeks] [Best Buy/Target/Amazon] Temporary Price Drop: $299 Series S 512GB > $249 (November 21 - December 02)
[XBS] [1 Week] [Best Buy] $599 Galaxy Black 2TB + $75 gift card (November 28 - November 30)
[XBS] [1 Week] [Target] Temporary Price Drop: $449 Series X Digital Edition White 1TB > $399 (November 26 - November 30)
[XBS] [1 Week] [Walmart] Temporary Price Drop: $299 Series S 512GB > $248 (November 25 - December 02)

[NSW] [1 Week] [Walmart] Temporary Price Drop: $349 White Mario Kart 8 Deluxe Bundle > $299 (November 25 - November 30)
[NSW] [1 Week] [Target/Best Buy] Temporary Price Drop: $349 White Mario Kart 8 Deluxe Bundle > $274 (November 24 - November 30)
[NSW] [1 Week] [Walmart] Temporary Price Drop: $299 Neon Mario Kart 8 Deluxe Bundle > $249 (November 25 - November 30)
[NSW] [1 Week] [Target/Best Buy] Temporary Price Drop: $299 Neon Mario Kart 8 Deluxe Bundle > $224 (November 24 - November 30)

Older Hardware, PS4, ROG Ally, Logitech G Cloud, Arcade cabinets, etc.

Recent History of November Hardware Revenue
Month201920202021202220232024
Sep$240,000,000$276,000,000$412,000,000$490,000,000$445,000,000$251,000,000
Oct$182,000,000$260,000,000$472,000,000$426,000,000$323,000,000$249,000,000
Nov$897,000,000$1,424,000,000$883,000,000$1,271,000,000$964,000,000-

November 2023 Units
1. PS5: >1M
2. XBS: <584K
3. NSW: <583K

October 2024 Rankings
Units: 1) PS5 2) XBS 3) Switch
Dollars: 1) PS5 2) XBS 3) Switch

October 2024 Unit Ranges
1. PS5: ~290K
2. XBS: ~165K
3. NSW: ~130K

October 2023 NPD thread
November 2023 NPD thread

NPD Prediction Thread Archive
 
[REV] 1083M

1. [PS5] 1460K
2. [XBS] 440K
3. [NSW] 510K
 
Only half a day left to predict what is likely to be a November Circana report for the history books.
 
Kmds said:
1. [PS5] 1200k
2. [XBS] 450k
3. [NSW] 750k
Click to expand...
Hey I'll give you until tomorrow to add a [REV] figure if you forgot to do that, only just now noticed you're missing that.
 
Install Base Prediction Average
REV: 1094.44M (Standard deviation = 93M)

PS5: 1375K (Standard deviation = 168K)
NSW: 548K (Standard deviation = 68K)
XBS: 445K (Standard deviation = 28K)

NPD Prediction Results - November 2024
Revenue
Result: $927M
RankUserRevenue Difference
1SoonyXboneUhh8,000,000
2Ystad54,000,000
3Danny83,000,000
4Isa Candygard93,000,000
5Xevross116,000,000
6jroc74123,000,000
7derby_440148,000,000
8awng782148,000,000
9Welfare156,000,000
10BTB123168,000,000
11Astral_lion02168,000,000
12Maluigi173,000,000
13Malden173,000,000
14Astrogamer216,000,000
15The Hunter243,000,000
16GaiusBaltar25248,000,000
17Kmds273,000,000
18Ronin423,000,000
Congrats to @SoonyXboneUhh ! We all overestimated this month and this was not a good month for most of us. 1/18 (6%) was within 1% and 3/18 (17%) were within 10% of the actual result.

Points
Code: 
November                       Total    (9/11)
1.  SoonyXboneUhh 93.07        Malden            936.51
2.  Ystad         86.59        Xevross           912.11
3.  Danny         83.02        awng782           910.88
4.  Isa Candygard 80.48        Astrogamer        905.64
5.  Xevross       77.24        Welfare           894.68
6.  jroc74        74.87        Ystad             871.03
7.  derby_440     72.52        BTB123            870.01
8.  awng782       72.52        The Hunter        863.11
9.  Welfare       70.09        jroc74            850.40
10. BTB123        68.44        Astral_lion02     833.58
11. Astral_lion02 68.44        derby_440         797.96
12. Maluigi       67.17        GaiusBaltar25     795.05
13. Malden        67.17        GamingCJ          738.57
14. Astrogamer    64.85        Maluigi           710.91
15. The Hunter    63.39        Fatih_656         476.86
16. GaiusBaltar25 63.12        Kenka             451.89
17. Kmds          61.78        NobsPlaystation   436.60
18. Ronin         53.68        Myriotes          335.84
19.                            Copilot           276.83
20.                            StrazakGoz        275.13
21.                            Ronin             203.53
22.                            Kmds              134.12
23.                            macfinatic         97.52
24.                            Tbone5189          97.16
25.                            Shadow of the Void 94.43
26.                            Vena               94.43
27.                            SoonyXboneUhh      93.07
28.                            Limabean01         92.98
29.                            Avitsky            87.12
30.                            Yomi               87.02
31.                            Josh5890           86.54
32.                            Danny              83.02
33.                            Isa Candygard      80.48
34.                            ESCK Swiss         73.38
35.                            Jin+Jang           72.35

Congrats to @SoonyXboneUhh for winning points! Since everyone predicted XBS would be #2 in revenue and #3 in units, everyone got the exact same score for the platform rankings, which means the total points ranking is just the revenue ranking.

This was straight up a bad month. Of all the long running predictors this year, @Ystad was the only one who got November added to their year to date total. For most of us this was our worst month of the year.

Let us never speak of this month again.
 
I regret that I missed one month this year. :(
Thank you to everyone in this small and core predictor community. :)
 
Damn I was thinking under $1000M for hardware revenue initially but didn't want to go out of the fold too much.

Herding is always punished.
 
Welfare said:
Install Base Prediction Average
REV: 1094.44M (Standard deviation = 93M)

PS5: 1375K (Standard deviation = 168K)
NSW: 548K (Standard deviation = 68K)
XBS: 445K (Standard deviation = 28K)

NPD Prediction Results - November 2024
Revenue
Result: $927M
RankUserRevenue Difference
1SoonyXboneUhh8,000,000
2Ystad54,000,000
3Danny83,000,000
4Isa Candygard93,000,000
5Xevross116,000,000
6jroc74123,000,000
7derby_440148,000,000
8awng782148,000,000
9Welfare156,000,000
10BTB123168,000,000
11Astral_lion02168,000,000
12Maluigi173,000,000
13Malden173,000,000
14Astrogamer216,000,000
15The Hunter243,000,000
16GaiusBaltar25248,000,000
17Kmds273,000,000
18Ronin423,000,000
Congrats to @SoonyXboneUhh ! We all overestimated this month and this was not a good month for most of us. 1/18 (6%) was within 1% and 3/18 (17%) were within 10% of the actual result.

Points
Code: 
November                       Total    (9/11)
1.  SoonyXboneUhh 93.07        Malden            936.51
2.  Ystad         86.59        Xevross           912.11
3.  Danny         83.02        awng782           910.88
4.  Isa Candygard 80.48        Astrogamer        905.64
5.  Xevross       77.24        Welfare           894.68
6.  jroc74        74.87        Ystad             871.03
7.  derby_440     72.52        BTB123            870.01
8.  awng782       72.52        The Hunter        863.11
9.  Welfare       70.09        jroc74            850.40
10. BTB123        68.44        Astral_lion02     833.58
11. Astral_lion02 68.44        derby_440         797.96
12. Maluigi       67.17        GaiusBaltar25     795.05
13. Malden        67.17        GamingCJ          738.57
14. Astrogamer    64.85        Maluigi           710.91
15. The Hunter    63.39        Fatih_656         476.86
16. GaiusBaltar25 63.12        Kenka             451.89
17. Kmds          61.78        NobsPlaystation   436.60
18. Ronin         53.68        Myriotes          335.84
19.                            Copilot           276.83
20.                            StrazakGoz        275.13
21.                            Ronin             203.53
22.                            Kmds              134.12
23.                            macfinatic         97.52
24.                            Tbone5189          97.16
25.                            Shadow of the Void 94.43
26.                            Vena               94.43
27.                            SoonyXboneUhh      93.07
28.                            Limabean01         92.98
29.                            Avitsky            87.12
30.                            Yomi               87.02
31.                            Josh5890           86.54
32.                            Danny              83.02
33.                            Isa Candygard      80.48
34.                            ESCK Swiss         73.38
35.                            Jin+Jang           72.35

Congrats to @SoonyXboneUhh for winning points! Since everyone predicted XBS would be #2 in revenue and #3 in units, everyone got the exact same score for the platform rankings, which means the total points ranking is just the revenue ranking.

This was straight up a bad month. Of all the long running predictors this year, @Ystad was the only one who got November added to their year to date total. For most of us this was our worst month of the year.

Let us never speak of this month again.
Click to expand...
How did people do in terms of unit? Looks like we underestimated Switch but we're close-ish with the others?
 
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