• Akira Toriyama passed away

    Let's all commemorate together his legendary work and his impact here

November 2022 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Wednesday, December 7 [PREDICTIONS CLOSED]

Welfare

Staff
Scholar Archivist Staff
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
NEW RULES + EXPLANATION
Because Michael Pachter of Wedbush Securities decided to stop subscribing to NPD this year, access to retail NPD appears to have been massively limited. Whether that's due to firms getting NPD through Pachter or agreeing with him that NPD data is worthless without digital sales (only video game companies that are on the digital board have access), leaks of hardware numbers might've dried up.

Fear not! I have a plan to remedy this set back so that this game can live on spirit. We will be transitioning away from predicting hardware units by console and instead be predicting Total Video Game Hardware Revenue and Order Of Consoles.

Every month NPD releases hardware revenue along with which console was in first place. We can always ask Mat Piscatella for the #2 console if he doesn't initially provide it.

How This Will Work
Predict how much revenue will be generated by Hardware for the given month as such

Good/Bad Formatting
Code:
Good                Bad
[REV] 405M          [REV] 400.5 million
[REV] 405,000,000   [REV] 405.000.000
[REV] 405000000     [REV] - 405000000

Then: Predict the order of each console FOR REVENUE as such

1. [NSW]
2. [PS5]
3. [XBS]

THE ABOVE IS IMPORTANT

The above is how you rank each console in terms of REVENUE. If you put NSW at 1., you are predicting NSW will be #1 in revenue.

Points
Hardware Revenue will be 50 points and follows how the hardware unit points work.

50 points * (percentage of correct revenue for hardware); anything over 100% difference = 0 points.

Correct Order would be the following in points.

If #1 correct = 18
If #2 correct = 10
If #3 correct = 7

If All Three correct = 15


That would be a total of 50 points to earn from console placements.

100 points in total to earn a month from the above two, plus bonus points for finishing in the Top 10 of hardware revenue.

#1 - 17 points
#2 - 13 points
#3 - 11 points
#4 - 9 points
#5 - 7 points
#6 - 5 points
#7 - 4 points
#8 - 3 points
#9 - 2 points
#10 - 1 point

Tradition Is Dead?
Not exactly. You will still put numbers down as if the game never changed. This will be your Unit ranking. Because I don't know if/when numbers will be made available again, there's always the potential they pop up again. If that happens, I want all of us to still make predictions as we have in the past.

RECAP
The 1.2.3. placements are how you will be ranking each platform for revenue. So if it's revealed PS5 was #1 in revenue and you had PS5 as 1., you get points for that.

The "traditional" predictions for unit sales will be separate to that. You can put whatever number you want there. You could have PS5 as 1. for revenue, but say you aren't sure about units and want to hedge your bets on Xbox being the actual unit lead. Example prediction below:

1. [PS5] 200K
2. [XBS] 300K
3. [NSW] 100K

This user has PS5 winning revenue, but Xbox for units. This is a valid prediction. How points are calculated are still the same 50 points assigned, but like this.

Each ranking still has the same value, If #1 correct = 18, If #2 correct = 10, If #3 correct = 7. If the revenue and unit results have the same placements, then nothing changes.

If revenue and unit placements/results are different, then points will be halved. Take the above example and we'll say the actual results are PS5 > XBS > NSW in both revenue and units.

The above predictor would get 9 points for predicting PS5 on top of revenue, but not the full 18 due to the unit placement. They would get 5 points for XBS for the same reason as PS5, then 7 points for NSW.

There are also bonus points for If All Three correct = 15. In this user's case, they'd only get 7.5 points as they got the correct revenue order, but not units.

In total they'd have 28.5 / 50 points.



ITT, predict for the NPD November 2022 retail period (October 30, 2022 - November 26, 2022) for U.S. hardware REVENUE and UNIT placements.

What is NPD?: NPD is one of the main retail tracking firms in the U.S., and also about the only one who specifically goes into detail on video games sales. This thread is to predict what the NPD hardware sales will be for the most recent month. NPD months are defined by the National Retail Federation (find calendar links here).
What do I win?: Bragging rights. We also keep track of predictions over the year and have an annual contest using "points." Still just bragging rights, but Sales followers have fun seeing how well we can do with it. See here for details on the point calculations. (Only used for Hardware Units)
Why are there still predictions when official NPD numbers are not released?:
Despite not receiving numbers from NPD directly since 2010, we have always found ways of obtaining them, whether through official company PR or leaks. These threads are also a place for the community to discuss the upcoming releases and current state of the US market as well as potential impacts in the future. In the end, it's for fun!

Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 8 p.m. EST on Wednesday, December 7th. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

NPD Coverage: October 30, 2022 - November 26, 2022 (4 weeks, October was 4 weeks)
NPD Results Release: Thursday, December 8 @ 4 p.m. EST (PR+thread posted Friday, December 9 around 9 a.m EST)

Format:

[REV]

1. [NSW] XXX
2. [PS5] XXX
3. [XBS] XXX

Note: Combined totals for multi-SKUs. e.g. PS5 physical and digital edition total go under PS5. Xbox Series X and Xbox Series S total goes under XBS.

Good/Bad Formatting
Code:
Good                Bad
[REV] 405M          [REV] 400.5 million
[REV] 405,000,000   [REV] 405.000.000
[REV] 405000000     [REV] - 405000000

Code:
Good              Bad
[XBS] 1200K       [XBS] 1.2 million
[XBS] 1,200,000   [XBS] 1.200.000
[XBS] 1200000     [XBS] - 1200000

Potential hardware impacting events in November:
Black Friday deals - Variable duration
PS5 and Series X availability improvements - 28 days
Xbox Series S $249 /$239 starting November 17 - 10 days
God of War Ragnarok and PS5 Bundles November 10 - 17 days
Pokemon Scarlet and Violet - 9 days
Mario Kart 8 Switch Bundle $299 November 20 - 7 days

Video Game Hardware Prices
Switch: $199/$299/$349/$349 (Lite/Regular/OLED/Pokemon OLED)
Xbox Series: $299/$499 (S/X) | $239/$249 (S Black Friday deals)
PS5: $399/$499 | $449/$549 | $459/$559 (Digital/Regular) | (Digital bundle/Regular bundle) | (Digital GOW/Regular GOW)

Older Hardware & Arcade cabinets: ??? (This is a factor but a small one)

Recent History of November Hardware Revenue
image.png


October 2021 NPD thread
November 2021 NPD thread

NPD Prediction Thread Archive
 
[REV] 1500M

1. [PS5] 1300K
2. [XBS] 1400K
3. [NSW] 1200K

1. God of War Ragnarok
2. Pokemon Scarlet and Violet
3. Call of Duty Modern Warfare 2
 
Last edited:
Software predictions (Optional)
Software Predictions

Let's have some fun this holiday by predicting the Top 3 software for November. Just put them in 1. 2. 3. order and getting them correct will net you 30 points. Get all 3 correct and you get an additional 10, totaling 100. These won't impact the hardware points.
 
[REV] 1440M

1. [PS5] 1150K
2. [XBS] 1370K
3. [NSW] 1110K

Sofware
1. Pokémon Scarlet/Violet
2. God of War: Ragnarök
3. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare II
 
Last edited:
[REV] 1230M

1. [PS5] 970K
2. [XBS] 1180K
3. [NSW] 1230k

Sofware
1. Pokémon
2. God of War
3. Call of Duty


Revenue ranking is quite easy this month imho. Is someone believing PS5 won't take the revenue crown with the high price for every console sold?
For Software you have to consider the following: Pokémon sold 4 out of 10 million in Japan, so only 6m WW
God of War sold 5m WW (100k Japan). But God of War included bundle copies. GoW is also very strong in the US, but Pokémon, too.
Tough call.
 
Last edited:
[REV] 1460M

1. [PS5] 1250K
2. [XBS] 1400K
3. [NSW] 1300K

1. Pokémon Scarlet/Violet
2. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare II
3. God of War: Ragnarök
 
Last edited:
[REV] 1550M

1. [PS5] 1350K
2. [XBS] 1300K
3. [NSW] 1400K

Sofware
1. Pokémon Scarlet/Violet/Double Pack
2. God of War: Ragnarök
3. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare II
 
[REV] 1450M

1. [PS5] 1300K
2. [XBS] 1250K
3. [NSW] 1100K

1. Call of Duty Modern Warfare 2
2. Pokemon Scarlet and Violet
3. God of War Ragnarok
 
[REV] 1380M

1. [PS5] 1150K
2. [XBS] 1070K
3. [NSW] 1010K

1. Pokemon Scarlet and Violet
2. God of War Ragnarök
3. Call of Duty Modern Warfare 2

I predict that this one will be ugly.
 
Last edited:
Hardware:
[REV] 1470M

1. [PS5] 1234K
2. [XBS] 1357K
3. [NSW] 1123K

Software:
1. God of War Ragnarok
2. Call of Duty Modern Warfare II
3. Pokemon Scarlet/Violet

Pokemon will exclude digital sales, which accounted for ~37% of its total sales in Japan according to Famitsu. Digital ratio in the US should be as high if not higher.
 
[REV] 1330M

1. [PS5] 1240K
2. [XBS] 1180K
3. [NSW] 1200K

1. God of War Ragnarok
2. Call of Duty Modern Warfare 2
3. Pokemon Scarlet and Violet
 
Last edited:
[REV] 1200M

1. [PS5] 1050K
2. [XBS] 1250K
3. [NSW] 1350K

1. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare II
2. Pokémon Scarlet/Violet
3. God of War Ragnarök
 
[REV] 1450M

1. [PS5] 1300K
2. [XBS] 1250K
3. [NSW] 1150K

1. Call of Duty Modern Warfare 2
2. Pokemon Scarlet and Violet
3. God of War Ragnarok
 
[REV] 1550M

1. [PS5] 1200K
2. [XBS] 1100K
3. [NSW] 1100K
 
[REV] 1480M

1. [PS5] 1220K
2. [XBS] 1300K
3. [NSW] 1110K

1. Pokémon Scarlet/Violet
2. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare II
3. God of War: Ragnarok
 
Last edited:
[REV] 1515M

1. [PS5] 1313K
2. [XBS] 1414K
3. [NSW] 1212K

1. God of War: Ragnarök
2. Call of Duty MW2
3. Pokemon Scarlet / Violet
 
[REV] 1525M

1. [PS5] 1280K
2. [XBS] 1250K
3. [NSW] 1300K

1. Call of Duty: MW2
2. God of War: Ragnarok
3. Pokemon Scarlet/Violet
 
[REV] 1350M

1. [PS5] 1020K
2. [XBS] 1100K
3. [NSW] 1200K

1. Pokémon Scarlet/Violet
2. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare II
3. God of War: Ragnarok
 
[REV] 1510M

1. [PS5] 1400K
2. [XBS] 1300K
3. [NSW] 1350K

1. Call of Duty Modern Warfare 2
2. God of War Ragnarok
3. Pokemon Scarlet and Violet
 
November 2022 Full Month (October 30 - November 26)

PS5 - NPD: ???

Week #StoresSource Post
1Walmart (2) / Amazon / Best BuySource
2GameStop (2) / Walmart / Target (2) / Best Buy (2) / Amazon (2) / Sony Direct (2)Source
3GameStop / Best Buy / AmazonSource
4Walmart (3) / Sony DirectSource

Xbox Series - NPD: ???
Week #StoresSource
1GameStop / Amazon (2)Source
2AmazonSource
3GameStop / Walmart / Target / Best Buy / AmazonSource
4WalmartSource

Notes
Major Amazon update: The Xbox Series S vanished from the rankings June 17th and hasn't come back. This isn't due to a drop in sales, even previous months results have disappeared. I don't know why this happened. This extends to the holiday SKU

Amazon full month rankings: #7 PS5 God of War Ragnarok Bundle $559 / #16 PS5 $499 (Amazon full month goes from November 01 to November 30) Source | PS5 Digital $399, PS5 Digital God of War Ragnarok Bundle $459, and Series X were also sold but not enough to enter the Top 100

Best Buy is selling units in store on a store-by-store basis. These sales don't get announced, but online drops will still be reported.

Target now sells Xbox Series X|S and PS5 in store as stores get units, no longer on event schedule.

November was a massive month for stock replenishment for both PS5 and Xbox. Sony got a ton of units out for God of War and managed to keep the restocks plentiful and frequent.

Xbox Series X got tons of stock from the start of the month and lasted well into the month. Series S had a $50-$60 discount depending on the store for 10 days. Amazon was selling out of stock within days, and Target stock actually got more stock once stores started running out.
 
[REV] 1340M

1. [PS5] 1200K
2. [XBS] 1275K
3. [NSW] 1150K

Software
1. God of War: Ragnarök
2. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare II
3. Pokémon Scarlet/Violet
 
[REV] 1150M

1. [PS5] 1100K
2. [XBS] 1275K
3. [NSW] 1225K

1. Call of Duty Modern Warfare 2
2. Pokémon Scarlet/Violet
3. God of War Ragnarok
 
[REV] 1313M

1. [PS5] 1150K
2. [XBS] 1250K
3. [NSW] 1050K

Not confident in this one at all, feels like just a complete guessing game this month. As for software, I think all three will be very close in revenue given Pokemon will be physical only and GOWR is more expensive.

1. God of War Ragnarök
2. Call of Duty Modern Warfare 2
3. Pokemon Scarlet/ Violet
 
[REV] 1465M

1. [PS5] 1132K
2. [XBS] 1232K
3. [NSW] 1156K

Software:
1. God of War Ragnarok
2. Call of Duty Modern Warfare II
3. Pokemon Scarlet/Violet
 
[REV] 1400M

1. [PS5] 1300K
2. [XBS] 1200K
3. [NSW] 1000K

Software:
1. Pokemon Scarlet/Violet
2. Call of Duty Modern Warfare II
3. God of War Ragnarok
 
Back
Top Bottom