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Nintendo Switch Q3 of FY2022 (Software) predictions

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ReddDreadtheLead

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Nintendo Switch is currently at 681M pieces of software sold as of September 30, 2021, ie, the amount of software sold LTD.

Their forecast for FY2022, so April 1, 2021 - March 31, 2022, is 200M pieces of software.

Currently they stand at 93.89M of software sold (Q1+Q2)

What is your prediction with respect to the software sold for the quarter 3 (October 1, 2021 to December 31, 2021)?

For reference, at the previous years of software sold in the same period:

October 1, 2020-December 31, 2020 = 75.85M of software.
October 1, 2019-December 31, 2019 = 64.64M of software.
October 1, 2018-December 31, 2018 = 52.51M of software.
October 1, 2017-December 31, 2017 = 25.08M of software.


October 1, 2021-December 31, 2021 = ???M of software?






(This goes hand-in-hand with LTD prediction from March 2017-December 2021)

Nintendo IR report that includes Q3 is set to release February 3, 2022. :)
 
So far it's fallen a bit short compared to last year, both Q1 and Q2 has been lower. But on the other side, software release slate was much stronger Q3 2021 than 2020.
Pokemon, Mario Party, Metroid, BBA is a better batch from Nintendo compared to AoC, Mario Kart Live and Pikmin 3. Evergreens will stay evergreens.

I'm gonna guess growth, - 91.12M
 
85 million

Numbers could breach 100 million but I'll play things safe.
 
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The software lineup is only getting stronger and there were some big hits this year.

I'm going to predict

88.88m
 
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Any number north of 75 mln and they should easily clear 200 mln guidance for software for the year. I'm just going to add 10-12 like the last two years and go with 86 mln.
 
100 million, Switch software is hitting its stride with momentum growing due to the huge number of evergreens combined with much stronger fall titles compared to last years holiday line-up.
 
Honestly, no idea. It's gonna be much closer to 100M than the previous 75M that's for sure. I'm gonna go ahead and say... 94M.
 
I will go with 100 million. The lineup was much stronger for Q4 compared to last year.

Metroid, Big brain academy, Mario Party Superstars and Pokemon BDSP should be over 20 million units combined alone. Much much more then Nintendo's first party efforts last Q3. Evergreens should perform similarly to last year.
 
Damn, to think it could be at +750M and it isn’t even close to dead as a platform, 1B software is not far off for June 30, 2023.


Edit: how much does a platform decline in software after peaking? Is it a drastic drop or a small drop?

I’m trying to find information of the DS but can’t seem to pin it as an exact to know.

As well as the Wii. Curious on how Nintendo’s platforms work with this regard.
 
Maybe we should have a Nintendo Switch Lifetime Expectations thread for its software sales (similar to the existing prediction thread for its hardware sales)... 🤔
 
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