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Nintendo Switch Lifetime Software Sales Predictions

awng782

Member
My first thread, so bear with me...

Betting Time 2022 Edition: Nintendo Switch Lifetime Expectations (Worldwide)
Nintendo Switch Q3 of FY2022 (Software) predictions

Inspired by the above prediction threads, I decided to make one for Nintendo Switch lifetime software sales.

Current situation (as of March 2022):
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Software Sales Comparison by Fiscal Year:
Nintendo DS vs Wii vs Nintendo Switch (millions)


NDSWiiNSW
FY0
10.49​
28.84​
5.47​
FY1
49.95​
119.60​
63.49​
FY2
123.55​
204.58​
118.56​
FY3
185.63​
191.80​
168.72​
FY4
197.30​
171.27​
230.88​
FY5
151.58​
102.37​
235.06​
FY6
120.99​
50.60​
210*​
FY7
60.82​
26.16​
FY8
33.38​
11.73​
FY9
10.29​
7.33​
FY10
2.99​
1.86​
* Forecast
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Important:
- Nintendo does not account for the sales of digital-only software (i.e. most indie games), and thus these predictions should not take them into account either. (This differs from Sony, who has been tracking the sales of digital-only games since the start of FY2020.)
- Games with both a retail + digital release and retail-only games (such as Ring Fit Adventure, Nintendo Labo) are accounted for.

Things to consider:
- Unlike with hardware, software is not limited by shortages since the eShop is a viable option to download games.
- Thus, the only limit to software sales is the appeal of the upcoming lineup + strength of back-catalog sales.
- If the Switch successor is backwards compatible, then Switch software will continue to sell since they would be playable on the successor.
- Confirmed upcoming Switch games announced for 2022 and beyond (I'll only list first party titles here, since there are too many otherwise):
  • Mario Strikers Battle League
  • Fire Emblem Warriors Three Hopes
  • Live A Live (outside Japan)
  • Xenoblade Chronicles 3
  • Splatoon 3
  • Pokémon Scarlet/Violet
  • Advanced Wars 1+2 Reboot Camp (outside Japan)
  • The sequel to The Legend of Zelda Breath of the Wild
  • Mario + Rabbids Sparks of Hope (in Japan)
  • Bayonetta 3
  • Metroid Prime 4
 
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