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My first thread, so bear with me...
Betting Time 2022 Edition: Nintendo Switch Lifetime Expectations (Worldwide)
Nintendo Switch Q3 of FY2022 (Software) predictions
Inspired by the above prediction threads, I decided to make one for Nintendo Switch lifetime software sales.
Current situation (as of March 2022):
Software Sales Comparison by Fiscal Year:
Nintendo DS vs Wii vs Nintendo Switch (millions)
* Forecast
Important:
- Nintendo does not account for the sales of digital-only software (i.e. most indie games), and thus these predictions should not take them into account either. (This differs from Sony, who has been tracking the sales of digital-only games since the start of FY2020.)
- Games with both a retail + digital release and retail-only games (such as Ring Fit Adventure, Nintendo Labo) are accounted for.
Things to consider:
- Unlike with hardware, software is not limited by shortages since the eShop is a viable option to download games.
- Thus, the only limit to software sales is the appeal of the upcoming lineup + strength of back-catalog sales.
- If the Switch successor is backwards compatible, then Switch software will continue to sell since they would be playable on the successor.
- Confirmed upcoming Switch games announced for 2022 and beyond (I'll only list first party titles here, since there are too many otherwise):
Betting Time 2022 Edition: Nintendo Switch Lifetime Expectations (Worldwide)
Nintendo Switch Q3 of FY2022 (Software) predictions
Inspired by the above prediction threads, I decided to make one for Nintendo Switch lifetime software sales.
Current situation (as of March 2022):
Software Sales Comparison by Fiscal Year:
Nintendo DS vs Wii vs Nintendo Switch (millions)
| NDS | Wii | NSW | |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY0 | 10.49 | 28.84 | 5.47 |
| FY1 | 49.95 | 119.60 | 63.49 |
| FY2 | 123.55 | 204.58 | 118.56 |
| FY3 | 185.63 | 191.80 | 168.72 |
| FY4 | 197.30 | 171.27 | 230.88 |
| FY5 | 151.58 | 102.37 | 235.06 |
| FY6 | 120.99 | 50.60 | 210* |
| FY7 | 60.82 | 26.16 | |
| FY8 | 33.38 | 11.73 | |
| FY9 | 10.29 | 7.33 | |
| FY10 | 2.99 | 1.86 |
Important:
- Nintendo does not account for the sales of digital-only software (i.e. most indie games), and thus these predictions should not take them into account either. (This differs from Sony, who has been tracking the sales of digital-only games since the start of FY2020.)
- Games with both a retail + digital release and retail-only games (such as Ring Fit Adventure, Nintendo Labo) are accounted for.
Things to consider:
- Unlike with hardware, software is not limited by shortages since the eShop is a viable option to download games.
- Thus, the only limit to software sales is the appeal of the upcoming lineup + strength of back-catalog sales.
- If the Switch successor is backwards compatible, then Switch software will continue to sell since they would be playable on the successor.
- Confirmed upcoming Switch games announced for 2022 and beyond (I'll only list first party titles here, since there are too many otherwise):
- Mario Strikers Battle League
- Fire Emblem Warriors Three Hopes
- Live A Live (outside Japan)
- Xenoblade Chronicles 3
- Splatoon 3
- Pokémon Scarlet/Violet
- Advanced Wars 1+2 Reboot Camp (outside Japan)
- The sequel to The Legend of Zelda Breath of the Wild
- Mario + Rabbids Sparks of Hope (in Japan)
- Bayonetta 3
- Metroid Prime 4
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