Nintendo Q4 FY 24/25 Predictions. Update: Results in the OP

Luminoth 4545 · May 2, 2025

Nintendo's Fiscal year Q4 Earnings Report releases on Thursday May 8th, So you have just under a week to predict.

This thread will focus on new releases this past quarter and other stated software as well as total global hardware and total software shipped from January 1st to March 31st, 2025. Predictions close right up until Nintendo release their earnings report.

Let’s see who will have the best predictions…. Good luck to all…

The new first party releases were Xenoblade Chronicles X Definitive Edition released on March 26th and Donkey Kong Country Returns HD released on January 16th.

Other predictions will be relatively new games: Mario & Luigi Brothership, Super Mario Party Jamboree and Legend of Zelda: Echoes of Wisdom plus the Top three selling Switch games Mario Kart 8 Deluxe, Animal Crossing: New Horizons and Super Smash Bros. Ultimate.

Here is Nintendo Switch's sales history for reference (millions of units).

Predict the following

(Anyone can add any bonus game of their choosing but it will not be featured in the main prediction table below

)

I'll go first

[NSW HW] 1.52
[NSW SW] 27.79
[XCX] 1.24
[DKCR] 1.88
[SMPJ] 1.09
[M&L:B] 0.27
[LOZ:EOW] 0.41
[MK8D] 0.92
[ACNH] 0.37
[SSBU] 0.39

Member	Hardware	Software	XCXDE	DKCR	SMPJ	M&L:B	LOZ:EOW	MK8D	AC:NH	SSBU
Astral_lion02	1.33	30.00	1.00	1.50	1.15	0.13	0.18	0.95	0.40	0.22
awng782	1.35	27.50	>1.00	1.23	1.35	0.24	0.20	0.86	0.48	0.36
BTB123	1.50	28.50	1.20	1.75	1.10	0.25	0.35	1.05	0.35	0.38
Carlos771984	1.35	30.75	1.00	2.00	1.10	0.10	0.17	0.95	0.30	0.20
Damage2	1.11	33.00	1.15	1.70	1.25	0.14	0.15	1.05	0.30	0.16
Danny	1.55	27.10	1.10	2.20	1.15	0.15	0.25	0.90	0.30	0.18
Isa Candygard	1.58	31.22	1.00	1.99	1.15	0.13	0.47	1.02	0.35	0.34
fiendcode	1.23	32.10	1.01	2.10	0.98	0.12	0.23	0.87	0.32	0.23
Guarana	1.10	25.00	1.00	1.20	0.80	0.10	0.20	0.50	0.20	0.20
HAB	1.18	25.12	1.06	2.10	1.20	0.18	0.32	1.01	0.45	0.22
johanto21	1.29	29.00	1.00	2.05	1.35	0.15	0.29	1.10	0.40	0.20
La Leganto	0.90	24.90	0.90	1.10	1.30	0.20	0.15	1.10	0.70	0.20
Lelouche0612	1.25	28.00	1.10	1.70	0.90	0.11	0.17	0.70	0.35	0.20
Luminoth4545	1.52	27.79	1.24	1.88	1.09	0.27	0.41	0.92	0.37	0.39
Malden	1.40	27.00	1.20	1.70	1.10	0.10	0.25	0.75	0.40	0.30
Maluigi	1.45	27.65	1.14	1.79	1.04	0.17	0.39	0.91	0.32	0.33
MarcoP90	1.47	28.15	1.05	1.64	1.20	0.22	0.23	0.85	0.33	0.17
NinnyKirby	1.09	20.70	1.04	1.58	0.91	0.12	0.21	0.62	0.27	0.16
Pavolink	1.50	25.50	1.20	1.30	1.60	0.10	0.35	1.10	0.50	0.25
pierre485	1.54	28.18	1.07	1.66	1.11	0.17	0.23	1.02	0.47	0.41
RavensShade	1.14	24.20	1.01	1.75	1.23	0.30	0.52	1.23	0.27	0.35
Sead	1.14	30.20	0.78	1.35	0.95	0.15	0.33	0.77	0.42	0.18
Tbone5189	1.66	21.12	1.01	2.24	1.23	0.09	0.17	0.71	0.19	0.13
Yomi	1.70	27.00	1.10	1.40	1.20	0.35	0.30	1.00	0.45	0.30
Ystad	1.25	26.50	1.00	1.60	1.00	0.20	0.20	0.80	0.30	0.30
Z-Z0	1.43	28.70	1.16	1.90	1.22	0.21	0.28	1.00	0.38	0.27

Scoring method: You receive 5pts for being the most accurate, 4pts for second, 3pts for third, 2pts for fourth and 1pt for fifth.
if multiple members are the same distance from the correct number (either over or under) then they all get the points.

Note: Because Xenoblade Chronicles X DE failed to hit one million, we do not know how much it sold so it will not be included.

Point scorers

NSW Hardware - 1.26

5pts - Lelouche0612, Ystad - 1.25
4pts - fiendcode - 1.23, johanto21 - 1.29
3pts - Astral_lion02 - 1.33
2pts - HAB - 1.18
1pt - awng782, Carlos771984 - 1.35

NSW Software - 31.43

5pts - Isa Candygard - 31.22
4pts - fiendcode - 32.10
3pts - Carlos771984 - 30.75
2pts - Sead - 30.20
1pt - Astral_lion02, - 30.00

Donkey Kong Country Returns HD - 1.27

5pts - Pavolink - 1.30
4pts - awng782 - 1.23
3pts - Guarana - 1.20
2pts - Sead - 1.35
1pt - Yomi - 1.40

Super Mario Party Jamboree - 1.31

5pts - La leganto- 1.30
4pts - awng782, johanto 21 - 1.35
3pts - Damage2 - 1.25
2pts - RavensShade, Tbone5189 - 1.23
1pt - Z-Z0 - 1.22

Mario and Luigi: Brothership - 0.13

5pts - Astral_lion, Isa Candygard - 0.13
4pts - Damage2 - 0.14, fiendcode, NinnyKirby - 0.12
3pts - Danny, johanto21, Sead - 0.15, Lelouche0612 - 0.11
2pts - Carlos771984, Guarana, Malden, Pavolink - 0.10
1pt - Tbone5189 - 0.09

The Legend of Zelda: Echoes of Wisdom - 0.18

5pts - Astral_lion - 0.18
4pts - Carlos771984, Lelouche0612, Tbone5189 - 0.17
3pts - awng782, Guarana, Ystad - 0.20
2pts - Damage2, La leganto - 0.15, NinnyKirby - 0.21
1pt - MarcoP90, pierre485 - 0.23

Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 0.85

5pts - Marcop90 - 0.85
4pts - awng782 - 0.86
3pts - fiencode - 0.87
2pts - Ystad - 0.80, Danny - 0.90
1pt - Maluigi - 0.91

Animal Crossing: New Horizons - 0.38

5pts - Z-Z0 - 0.38
4pts - Luminoth4545 - 0.37
3pts - Astral_lion02, Johanto21, Malden - 0.40
2pts - BTB123, Lelouche0612, Isa Candygard - 0.35
1pt - Sead - 0.42

Super Smash Bros. Ultimate - 0.36

5pts - awng782 - 0.36
4pts - RavensShade - 0.35
3pts - BTB123, - 0.38, Isa Candygard - 0.34
2pts - Luminoth4545 - 0.39, Maluigi - 0.33
1pt - pierre485 - 0.41

Standings

If points are tied then the person with more placements ranks higher, if points and number of placements are the same then it's a tie.

Pos	Member	Total pts	Hardware	Software	DKCR	SMPJ	M&L:B	LOZ:EOW	MK8D	AC:NH	SSBU
1	awng782	21	1	-	4	4	-	3	4	-	5
2	Astral_lion02	17	3	1	-	-	5	5	-	3	-
3	fiendcode	15	4	4	-	-	4	-	3	-	-
3	Isa Candygard	15	-	5	-	-	5	-	-	2	3
5	johanto21	14	4	-	-	4	3	-	-	3	-
5	Lelouche0612	14	5	-	-	-	3	4	-	2
7	Carlos771984	10	1	3	-	-	2	4	-	-	-
8	Ystad	10	5	-	-	-	-	3	2	-	-
9	Damage2	9	-	-	-	3	4	2	-	-	-
10	Sead	8	-	2	2	-	3	-	-	1	-
11	Guarana	8	-	-	3	-	2	3	-	-	-
12	Tbone5189	7	-	-	-	2	1	4	-	-	-
13	Pavolink	7	-	-	5	-	2	-	-	-	-
13	La leganto	7	-	-	-	5	-	2	-	-	-
15	Luminoth4545	6	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	4	2
15	MarcoP90	6	-	-	-	-	-	1	5	-	-
15	NinnyKirby	6	-	-	-	-	4	2	-	-	-
15	RavensShade	6	-	-	-	2	-	-	-	-	4
15	Z-Z0	6	-	-	-	1	-	-	-	5	-
20	BTB123	5	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	2	3
20	Danny	5	-	-	-	-	3	-	2	-	-
20	Malden	5	-	-	-	-	2	-	-	3	-
23	Maluigi	3	-	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	2
24	pierre485	2	-	-	-	-	-	1	-	-	1
25	HAB	2	2	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
26	Yomi	1	-	-	1	-	-	-	-	-	-

Congratulations to awng782 who made the most accurate predictions, also well done to runner up Astral_lion02 and fiendcode and Isa Candygard who finished joint third. Everyone scored at least one point so well done and thanks to everyone for contributing.

Maluigi · May 2, 2025

[NSW HW] 1.45
[NSW SW] 27.65
[XCX] 1.14
[DKCR] 1.79
[SMPJ] 1.04
[M&L:B] 0.17
[LOZ:EOW] 0.39
[MK8D] 0.91
[ACNH] 0.32
[SSBU] 0.33

fiendcode · May 2, 2025

[NSW HW] 1.23
[NSW SW] 32.10
[XCX] 1.01
[DKCR] 2.10
[SMPJ] 0.98
[M&L:B] 0.12
[LOZ:EOW] 0.23
[MK8D] 0.87
[ACNH] 0.32
[SSBU] 0.23

Carlos771984 · May 2, 2025

[NSW HW] 1.35
[NSW SW] 30.75
[XCX] 1.00
[DKCR] 2.00
[SMPJ] 1.10
[M&L:B] 0.10
[LOZ:EOW] 0.17
[MK8D] 0.95
[ACNH] 0.30
[SSBU] 0.20

Isa Candygard · May 2, 2025

[NSW HW] 1.58
[NSW SW] 31.22
[XCX] 1.00
[DKCR] 1.99
[SMPJ] 1.15
[M&L:B] 0.13
[LOZ:EOW] 0.47
[MK8D] 1.02
[ACNH] 0.35
[SSBU] 0.34

Danny · May 2, 2025

Should we add a prediction about Nintendo's Switch 2 sales forecast as well?

Luminoth 4545 · May 2, 2025

Danny said:
Should we add a prediction about Nintendo's Switch 2 sales forecast as well?

That will be for the next quarter (Q1: April 1st to June 30th).

Malden · May 3, 2025

[NSW HW] 1.40M
[NSW SW] 27.00M
[XCX] 1.20M
[DKCR] 1.70M
[SMPJ] 1.10M
[M&L:B] 0.10M
[LOZ:EOW] 0.25M
[MK8D] 0.75M
[ACNH] 0.40M
[SSBU] 0.30M

"Thank you for tuning in so far. My next announcement will be the last."

1. MK8D - 68.10M (up .75M)
2. ACNH - 47.84M (up .40M)
3. SSBU - 36.18M (up .30M)
4.BotW - 32.80M (up .18M)
5. SMO - 29.45M (up .41M)
6. PS/V - 26.70M (up .32M)
7. PSw/Sh - 26.65M (up .05M)
8. TotK - 21.80M (up .25M)
9. SMP - 21.25 - (up .15M)
10. NSMBUD - 18.30M (up .24M)

"That's all for this direct. Thank you for watching."

Guaraná · May 3, 2025

[NSW HW] 1.1
[NSW SW] 25
[XCX] 1.0
[DKCR] 1.2
[SMPJ] 0.8
[M&L:B] 0.10
[LOZ:EOW] 0.2
[MK8D] 0.50
[ACNH] 0.20
[SSBU] 0.20

Luminoth 4545 · May 4, 2025

To prove i haven't edited my predictions.

[NSW HW] 1.52
[NSW SW] 27.79
[XCX] 1.24
[DKCR] 1.88
[SMPJ] 1.09
[M&L:B] 0.27
[LOZ:EOW] 0.41
[MK8D] 0.92
[ACNH] 0.37
[SSBU] 0.39

BTB123 · May 4, 2025

[NSW HW] 1.50
[NSW SW] 28.50
[XCX] 1.20
[DKCR] 1.75
[SMPJ] 1.10
[M&L:B] 0.25
[LOZ:EOW] 0.35
[MK8D] 1.05
[ACNH] 0.35
[SSBU] 0.38

Danny · May 4, 2025

[NSW HW] 1.55
[NSW SW] 27.10
[XCX] 1.10
[DKCR] 2.20
[SMPJ] 1.15
[M&L:B] 0.15
[LOZ:EOW] 0.25
[MK8D] 0.90
[ACNH] 0.30
[SSBU] 0.18

Z-Z0 · May 4, 2025

[NSW HW] 1.43
[NSW SW] 28.7
[XCX] 1.16
[DKCR] 1.90
[SMPJ] 1.22
[M&L:B] 0.21
[LOZ:EOW] 0.28
[MK8D] 1.00
[ACNH] 0.38
[SSBU] 0.27

HAB · May 4, 2025

[NSW HW] 1.18
[NSW SW] 25.12
[XCX] 1.06
[DKCR] 2.10
[SMPJ] 1.20
[M&L:B] 0.18
[LOZ:EOW] 0.32
[MK8D] 1.01
[ACNH] 0.45
[SSBU] 0.22

johanto21 · May 5, 2025

[NSW HW] 1.29
[NSW SW] 29.00
[XCX] 1.00
[DKCR] 2.05
[SMPJ] 1.35
[M&L:B] 0.15
[LOZ:EOW] 0.29
[MK8D] 1.10
[ACNH] 0.40
[SSBU] 0.20

pierre485 · May 5, 2025

[NSW HW] 1.54
[NSW SW] 28.18
[XCX] 1.07
[DKCR] 1.66
[SMPJ] 1.11
[M&L:B] 0.17
[LOZ:EOW] 0.23
[MK8D] 1.02
[ACNH] 0.47
[SSBU] 0.41

awng782 · Tuesday at 3:01 AM

[NSW HW] 1.35
[NSW SW] 27.50
[XCX] Under 1M
[DKCR] 1.23
[SMPJ] 1.35
[M&L:B] 0.24
[LOZ:EOW] 0.20
[MK8D] 0.86
[ACNH] 0.48
[SSBU] 0.36

Ystad · Tuesday at 11:38 AM

[NSW HW] 1.25
[NSW SW] 26.50
[XCX] 1.00
[DKCR] 1.60
[SMPJ] 1.00
[M&L:B] 0.20
[LOZ:EOW] 0.20
[MK8D] 0.80
[ACNH] 0.30
[SSBU] 0.30

La Leganto · Tuesday at 2:30 PM

[NSW HW] 0.9
[NSW SW] 24.9
[XCX] 0.9
[DKCR] 1.1
[SMPJ] 1.3
[M&L:B] 0.2
[LOZ:EOW] 0.15
[MK8D] 1.1
[ACNH] 0.7
[SSBU] 0.2

Pavolink · Wednesday at 7:41 AM

[NSW HW] 1.50
[NSW SW] 25.50
[XCX] 1.20
[DKCR] 1.30
[SMPJ] 1.60
[M&L:B] 0.10
[LOZ:EOW] 0.35
[MK8D] 1.10
[ACNH] 0.50
[SSBU] 0.25

Yomi · Wednesday at 12:49 PM

[NSW HW] 1.7
[NSW SW] 27.0
[XCX] 1.1
[DKCR] 1.4
[SMPJ] 1.2
[M&L:B] 0.35
[LOZ:EOW] 0.3
[MK8D] 1.0
[ACNH] 0.45
[SSBU] 0.3

Sead · Wednesday at 8:25 PM

[NSW HW] 1.14
[NSW SW] 30.2
[XCX] 0.78
[DKCR] 1.35
[SMPJ] 0.95
[M&L:B] 0.15
[LOZ:EOW] 0.33
[MK8D] 0.77
[ACNH] 0.42
[SSBU] 0.18

RavensShade · Wednesday at 11:58 PM

[NSW HW] 1.14
[NSW SW] 24.2
[XCX] 1.01
[DKCR] 1.75
[SMPJ] 1.23
[M&L:B] 0.3
[LOZ:EOW] 0.52
[MK8D] 1.23
[ACNH] 0.27
[SSBU] 0.35

MarcoP90 · Thursday at 12:21 AM

[NSW HW] 1.47
[NSW SW] 28.15
[XCX] 1.05
[DKCR] 1.64
[SMPJ] 1.20
[M&L:B] 0.22
[LOZ:EOW] 0.23
[MK8D] 0.85
[ACNH] 0.33
[SSBU] 0.17

FernandoRocker · Thursday at 2:02 AM

What time can we expect the numbers?

AstroB · Thursday at 2:15 AM

FernandoRocker said:
What time can we expect the numbers?

15:30 JST
https://www.nict.go.jp/JST/JST5_E.html

JST Clock

Welfare · Thursday at 2:29 AM

Going to be boring and only predict hardware

[NSW HW] 1.45

Tbone5189 · Thursday at 3:53 AM

[NSW HW] 1.66
[NSW SW] 21.12
[XCX] 1.01
[DKCR] 2.24
[SMPJ] 1.23
[M&L:B] 0.09
[LOZ:EOW] 0.17
[MK8D] 0.71
[ACNH] 0.19
[SSBU] 0.13

NinnyKirby · Thursday at 6:06 AM

[NSW HW] 1.09
[NSW SW] 20.70
[XCX] 1.04
[DKCR] 1.58
[SMPJ] 0.91
[M&L:B] 0.12
[LOZ:EOW] 0.21
[MK8D] 0.62
[ACNH] 0.27
[SSBU] 0.16

Astral_lion02 · Thursday at 6:12 AM

[NSW HW] 1.33
[NSW SW] 30.00
[XCX] 1.00
[DKCR] 1.50
[SMPJ] 1.15
[M&L:B] 0.13
[LOZ:EOW] 0.18
[MK8D] 0.95
[ACNH] 0.40
[SSBU] 0.22

Lelouch0612 · Thursday at 6:47 AM

[NSW HW] 1.25
[NSW SW] 28.00
[XCX] 1.10
[DKCR] 1.70
[SMPJ] 0.90
[M&L:B] 0.11
[LOZ:EOW] 0.17
[MK8D] 0.70
[ACNH] 0.35
[SSBU] 0.20

Damage2 · Thursday at 6:58 AM

[NSW HW] 1.11
[NSW SW] 33.00
[XCX] 1.15
[DKCR] 1.70
[SMPJ] 1.25
[M&L:B] 0.14
[LOZ:EOW] 0.15
[MK8D] 1.05
[ACNH] 0.30
[SSBU] 0.16

Luminoth 4545 · Friday at 1:03 PM

Results in the OP, if i made a mistake then please notify me.

fiendcode · Friday at 1:19 PM

I killed it on hardware & software but man, DK and Xenoblade killed me!

Malden · Friday at 1:23 PM

Congrats Awng and everyone.

Yomi · Friday at 3:11 PM

Yeah, I was there

Congratz @awng782

Isa Candygard · Friday at 9:01 PM

Best I’ve done! Had some really good and some really bad guesses.

Nintendo Q4 FY 24/25 Predictions. Update: Results in the OP

Tears of the Kingdom fanatic

Note to myself: no avatar bets.

¯\_(ツ)_/¯