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Nintendo is going into next gen with a lot of momentum... and still several cards to play

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As we slowly go into 2024 and a new era for Nintendo with the expected arrival of its next platform, it is the perfect time to sit and think about Nintendo's current position in the gaming landscape.

Exceptional momentum

2023 was supposed to be a pivotal year for Nintendo. It is the year that marked the company's expansion in Movies, with its most iconic brand, and the launch of the much anticipated sequel of Breath of the Wild.

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So on the one hand, you had a big unknown despite Mario and Illumination's pedigree. On the other hand, you had one of your master cards, the follow-up to a breakthrough hard to dissociate to the Switch success story itself.

April: From Mister Videogame to Mister Movie?

The Super Mario Movie project was in the works for several years. As you well know, Nintendo's first foray into the movie scene was a failure. It pushed the company to pull the plug on that initiative and encouraged them to keep a tighter leesh on their IPs.

When their partnership with Illumination was announced, it both raised financial hopes and concerns. The studio was famous for both its BO successes (The Minions, Despicable Me...) and its critical shortcomings.

Saying that the anticipation and apprehension was high before the first trailer of the movie would be an understatement. It eventually happened through a dedicated Direct (a great symbol of the synergies between Nintendo's gaming culture and its movie initiatives).



I could go on and on about the Movie's roaring success but it is a topic for another day. What's certain is that the movie grossed $1.3B worldwide, and expanded Nintendo/Mario reach beyond what gaming can offer.

It was the first punch, in April, that would put Nintendo's business into an exceptional shape during that quarter and generate ton of momentum.

May: Tears of the Kingdom

Breath of the Wild was a breakthrough for The Legend of Zelda series, far exceeding previous entries. During the 6+ years gap, it continued to sell steadily from less than 3m units in its launch quarter to more than 10 times that amount.

Expectations were high for its direct sequel, Tears of the Kingdom, as fans waited impatiently for years as Nintendo slowly revealed more detail on the latest entry.

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(Credits to Peleo, numbers by the end of 2022)​

However, there were some questions too, the novelty factor faded away and the Switch was just entering its 7th year on the market by showing more and more signs of its aging hardware. How important Tears of the Kingdom would really be for Nintendo ?

It didn't take much time for the answer to come, from the launch of a special OLED edition, to the actual launch and Nintendo's official PR only two weeks passed by.

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Tears of the Kingdom managed the extremely difficult feat of matching BotW's critical reception, set a record for launch sales for Nintendo during one of the calmest month of the year (most records were set in the Holidays previously) and of boosting hardware more than 6 years after its launch:



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Zelda significantly raised the Switch baseline, defying cyclical decline

Switch sales rose worldwide during the quarter, to reach a very strong 3.91M units during Mario & Zelda launch quarter, a 12% growth YoY and simply the biggest outside of the Covid boost in 2020/2021. It puts Nintendo into a very comfortable position to reach their 15M forecast for the whole fiscal year since already 26% of the target is reached.

Even if it utlimately slowed down, at least on the hardware front, the momentum is very strong for an ecosystem that old and the reveal (+ now launch) of Super Mario Wonder confirmed that Nintendo would ride this wave throughout the Holiday season. They are therefore ending 2023 in a very favorable position.

So, with 2-3 significant launches in 2023, did Nintendo blow off their load and is going into 2024 empty handed ?

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A remake of Paper Mario: The Thousand Year Door was Nintendo's biggest announcement during September 2023's Nintendo Direct
We are currently mostly in the dark on the pipeline front. Games are key to have a successful hardware transition, it was abundantely clear for the Switch itself, so what could Nintendo really be preparing for its next console launch window ?
2017-2024: Waiting for Mario

It might sound ludicrous, given the amount of Mario related content we got since April 2023, between the movie, a new 2D Mario, a new Peach subseries coming this March, and a meaty slate of remakes. However, there's Mario and Mario, and for Nintendo, two Mario subseries are treated very specially. Those two Mario subseries have been mostly dormant since 2017, at the exception of new (but mainly outsourced) content between 2021 and 2023.

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For waiting right ? (excerpt of the final Mario Kart 8 Deluxe Booster Pass credit scene, November 2023)
Mario Kart and 3D Mario have been two of the biggest cards of Nintendo's playbook:

  • The Mario Kart franchise has hit incredibly massive mainstream appeal ever since its shift to 3D. However, ever since the DS/Wii, the franchise reached new heights, being the best-selling games on every Nintendo platform ever since (3DS, WiiU, Switch).
  • For 3D Mario, the return to the sandbox formula combined with the Switch's incredible success has put the subseries to a new level. Trailers of Super Mario Odyssey remain, to this point, the most watched for a Nintendo game (55M for the reveal trailer, 41M for the E3 one in Nintendo of America YT account).

Those two massive assets for Nintendo, among the top 5 of best-selling Switch games with 57m units sold for Mario Kart and 27m for Odyssey (as of September 2023), are however pretty much dormant every since. The studios behind these games have not released a new console game since June 2017 (ARMS from the MK team) and October 2017 (Odyssey, from EPD Tokyo). There have been some work done tho, as mentioned before.

They are two of the cards, on Nintendo's sleeves, to deliver a smooth and exciting transition. For Mario Kart, the anticipation is even grander since 8 initially launched in 2014.

2023 : Pivotal year for big Western IPs ?

Funnily enough, it is partially when the Switch entered its last years (and with PS5/Xbox gaining momentum) that the signs for upcoming and meaningful Western 3rd party support were the clearest.

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  • The latest FIFA entry, called EA FC 24, has been moved to the Frostbite engine after years of Legacy support (since 2019)
  • Hogwarts Legacy, 2023's highest selling game, has been released on Switch despite initially being PS5/XB/PC only, a clear sign of the effort invested in order to make the port happen. Sales of the game on Switch have been extremely strong since its launch.
  • As the ABK acquisition closed this year, it is now confirmed that Call of Duty will make its grand return on Nintendo console(s) next year after a decade+ of nothing.

While the reasons behind each of these Switch ports are different, it does position the upcoming platform into a very favorable position. They won't get everything, but they'll get the games that matter the most for mainstream audiences (with GaaS support being also strong). The only remaining member of the holy trifeca, which carried the PS/Xbox since the PS3/X360 era, is Grand Theft Auto. Its presence or absence will have an impact for 2025 sales and beyond.

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GTA VI is a big question mark, with a 2025 release date, it is ideally placed to generate momentum for a new console, only a dream ?
A few risks

  • Risk of delay - while the mometum is very strong for a console that old, the Switch still slowed down significantly this Holiday season despite the release of Super Mario Bros. Wonder. If the successor slips to 2025 (because software isn't ready for instance), then 2024 might be a big struggle.​

  • Pricing - The Nintendo Switch released in 2017 at 299$/330€/32.980Y but since then, there has been a big inflation happening and the OLED (which is a bit more expensive) is still the model with the lower margins. An increase is therefore expected, at the risk of cutting a part of Nintendo's audience. The low Yen might also make the jump higher in Japan, which would threathen domestic sales (on which several 1st/3rd party franchises on Switch relied on). The way they'll handle the Switch after its successor launches will be a key aspect to make the smooth transition they are looking for.​

  • No new Zelda game for a while - Tears of the Kindgom released in 2023 with a 6 years gap with Breath of the Wild. This is one of Nintendo's biggest assets both comercially and critically, putting the franchise in the league of other huge hardware movers. This also fills a big hole in Nintendo's library, with very few open world games coming from 3rd party publishers (those don't usually scale down well on lower powered devices). So when will the new open air Zelda release ? Probably not before 2028, and that's with Aonuma confirming that no DLC will release for Tears.​


To conclude, it does seem like Nintendo is potentially in a very good position to launch a new platform in 2024. 2023 is ending on a high note for the firm, which closed the year at the highest market cap of its whole history. Confidence is high but I'd like to take this occasions to ask you, in your opinion, how Nintendo could ensure the best transition possible, and how could it solve the risks I mentioned and/or the ones you have in mind ?

2024 will be a very exciting year
for that very reason, speculating and ultimately knowing Nintendo's grand plan for a very important "smooth transition".

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I can't wait to wake up tomorrow without any new announcement regarding next generation hardware and watching the internet burn.
 
I'd like them to say that Nintendo is always looking into new ways of playing

"we are now in uncharted territory with Nintendo Switch"
"prolonging sales of Nintendo Switch will continue to be the focus for Nintendo"
"Nintendo is always looking into developing new and attractive ways to experience their IPs"

The holy trinity
 
"we are now in uncharted territory with Nintendo Switch"
"prolonging sales of Nintendo Switch will continue to be the focus for Nintendo"
"Nintendo is always looking into developing new and attractive ways to experience their IPs"

The holy trinity

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pic from the future shareholder meeting
 

This is Furukawa, President of Nintendo. We will make an announcement about the successor to Nintendo Switch within this fiscal year. It will have been over nine years since we announced the existence of Nintendo Switch back in March 2015. We will be holding a Nintendo Direct this June regarding the Nintendo Switch software lineup for the latter half of 2024, but please be aware that there will be no mention of the Nintendo Switch successor during that presentation.

And there it is. Like many expected, we'd get our first official confirmation here. :D
 
Software still incredibly close to 200 million for this fiscal year means that the Switch still has quite a bit of software momentum to keep itself afloat. The userbase is incredibly active, matched only by the likes of the PS2. Bodes well for Nintendo's next system and is a marked change from where the Wii was before the introduction of the Wii U.
 
Software still incredibly close to 200 million for this fiscal year means that the Switch still has quite a bit of software momentum to keep itself afloat. The userbase is incredibly active, matched only by the likes of the PS2. Bodes well for Nintendo's next system and is a marked change from where the Wii was before the introduction of the Wii U.


you are right
I'm waiting for next days' update on the active user base too
 
Switch 2 next FY now imo. Acknowledgement of existence but no confirmation of release, only reveal.
That could be true. But an october 2024 reveal and a january 2025 blowout could still work as well, no?

I think everything depends on the launch games being ready. The hardware is ready to start production, but are the launch games ready or not is the question.
 
That could be true. But an october 2024 reveal and a january 2025 blowout could still work as well, no?

I think everything depends on the launch games being ready. The hardware is ready to start production, but are the launch games ready or not is the question.
It could happen but I think if Switch 2 was releasing and impacting forecasts they'd have told investors. Like they did for NX at the end of FY16.
 
It could happen but I think if Switch 2 was releasing and impacting forecasts they'd have told investors. Like they did for NX at the end of FY16.

My assumption is that back in 2016 they *needed* to provide a time window for the Switch due to their overall financial results and the low sales numbers / forecasts for both 3DS and Wii U; this isn't the case for the Switch successor, given how much the current Switch still sells and is projected to sell for this fiscal year. It's also possible that this is one of the differences between how Kimishima operated during his tenure at the company and how Furukawa operates now.
 
My assumption is that back in 2016 they *needed* to provide a time window for the Switch due to their overall financial results and the low sales numbers / forecasts for both 3DS and Wii U; this isn't the case for the Switch successor, given how much the current Switch still sells and is projected to sell for this fiscal year. It's also possible that this is one of the differences between how Kimishima operated during his tenure at the company and how Furukawa operates now.
This is possible too, NX was launching into a very different environment that the Switch successor will be. That said the revenue targets look pretty aligned with Switch hardware and software targets imo, and revenue is something that would need to account for Switch 2. There's wiggle room for March yet maybe but I'm definitely leaning towards next FY now.

I'd also say now though, that to satiate investors Nintendo did have to confirm a Switch successor today even if it's not coming this FY. They needed the future outlook to keep the stock up despite how well they're doing.
 
They stated clearly with the Wii U when it's units/impact was not included in FY 2012 (announcement April 2011). They haven't said one way or the other about the successor, so a launch this FY is still in the cards.
 
I think this is the perfect time to not lose the momentum, a lackluster lineup for late 2024 would have made people lose interest, but now we have months of speculation that will spark interest in the new thing.
 
Nintendo World Championships: NES Edition just got announced. There we got our summer game for Nintendo Switch. Great to own as collector for the physical version
 
June's Direct?

could be...I can see NES Edition to be treated differently with this Twitter-Direct (lol) due to its particular nature, with those two being in the June Direct, despite being minor/small (for the general public willl still be "normal games" after all)
 
If they can launch a new DK game and Prime 4 this year they could do well on the software front, otherwise I'm not sure what will help them get to their hardware/software goals for the year. Most of their other notable IPs have been exhausted on Switch and are likely being worked on for Switch 2.
 
If they can launch a new DK game and Prime 4 this year they could do well on the software front, otherwise I'm not sure what will help them get to their hardware/software goals for the year. Most of their other notable IPs have been exhausted on Switch and are likely being worked on for Switch 2.

I still think a Tomodatchi Life is due, with Pokèmon Legends pretty a lock for Q1 2025 (so THIS FY)
of course...IMHO!
I could also see a Zelda HD collection with the Wii U ports of TP and WW to bloat the lineup a little bit
 
I still think a Tomodatchi Life is due, with Pokèmon Legends pretty a lock for Q1 2025 (so THIS FY)
of course...IMHO!
I could also see a Zelda HD collection with the Wii U ports of TP and WW to bloat the lineup a little bit
Yeah, I was thinking a Zelda HD duology would work, kinda like Pikmin 1 + 2. Sell them for $40 individually, $70 together. The $70 bundle would probably move 2-3 million by itself. Pokemon will help but I wonder if a second Legends game has diminishing returns this late in the system's life cycle.

There's also the rumored FE4 remake but if I was Nintendo I'd be saving that for Switch 2 at this point, FE is saturated on Switch 1 as is.
 
If they can launch a new DK game and Prime 4 this year they could do well on the software front, otherwise I'm not sure what will help them get to their hardware/software goals for the year. Most of their other notable IPs have been exhausted on Switch and are likely being worked on for Switch 2.
We need 2 10mil sellers so I hope so
 
We need 2 10mil sellers so I hope so
Donkey Kong and Pokemon Legends, yeah :p

Optimistically, I could see H2 being something like...

July: Nintendo World Championship
August: F-Zero GX HD
September: Zelda WW/TP HD doublepack
October: Metroid Prime 4
November: Donkey Kong game
 
Yeah, I was thinking a Zelda HD duology would work, kinda like Pikmin 1 + 2. Sell them for $40 individually, $70 together. The $70 bundle would probably move 2-3 million by itself. Pokemon will help but I wonder if a second Legends game has diminishing returns this late in the system's life cycle.

There's also the rumored FE4 remake but if I was Nintendo I'd be saving that for Switch 2 at this point, FE is saturated on Switch 1 as is.


Just for fun

Tomodatchi 5mil [3Ds episode sold 6+, let's imagine a diminished novelty effect partially balanced by the Switch active userbase at a ww level compared to the 3DS]

Zelda Twin HD 4mil [Same range as a spinoff like Age of Calamity, due to being ports already sold last gen, not brand new, not based on the BOTW aesthetic/lore but balanced by being a good value proposition as a collection of 2 games, with mainline game design/gameplay]

Metroid Prime 4: 4mil [based on Dread 3+mil, with increased potential in being 3D and sonprobably aimed at a bigger target audience]

Pokémon Legends Z: 11mil [based on the 15mil of Arceus, with less wow factor and more brand saturation]

FE4 Remake: 1mil [based on the FE sales curve from the 4mil of TH to the 2mil projected for Engage, with the bad past example of Echoes sales as late episode in the last part of the console life cycle]


Let's see if they reallybare pushing THIS MUCH (imho) into the last bit of Switch life



Or if they will bundle Mario Party + JoyCon with the console at 290€ lol
 
I wonder if main selling games for next year are 3D Mario, Luigis Mansion 4, Mario Kart and Mario Party as its Mario 40th anniversary and next SMB movie releases early 2026 so its works as a bridged between 2 movies.

So, as a prediction for Switch 2 FY0/1 I would say:
FY0 (03/25)
March: 3D Mario, EPD4 Casual game (Nintendogs?)

FY1 (04/25-03/26)
April: Monolith Soft title (new IP?)
May: 2D Zelda (cross-gen)
June: Pokemon A-Z (cross-gen) [+ new 3D Zelda trailer at June Direct]
July: Mario Party
August: Platinium Games collaboration (Astral Chain 2?)
September: Koei-Tecmo collaboration (Mario Warriors?), Pokemon Spin-Off by Bandai-Namco
October: Luigis Mansion 4
November: Mario Kart 10
December: casual game (cross-gen?) [+ new Smash Bros game announcement at TGA]
January: revival of dormant IP like Endless Ocean/Another Code (cross-gen?)
February: 2D Metroid
March: Animal Crossing

This would be a very strong first fiscal year with a deadly combo of new Mario Kart and Animal Crossing games (follow up of 2 best selling Switch titles) + very heavy third party support.
 
Now where's Rainbow Curse and Pullblox?
Of note, those only got re-trademarked because they turn 10 years old next year, Nintendo does this as standard practice for basically everything they release - so there's no indication that they doing anything with either of those; even though both would probably good ideas.

----
Really hoping for a Mario Sluggers game. They never were released in Europe (or at least not where I'm from) so would love to finally be able have one. The looked super fun.
Actually the original GCN entry - Mario Superstar Baseball - did launch in Europe and Australia, but the Wii entry skipped PAL regions, likely due to Baseball only having very limited popularity in these regions.
 
Actually the original GCN entry - Mario Superstar Baseball - did launch in Europe and Australia, but the Wii entry skipped PAL regions, likely due to Baseball only having very limited popularity in these regions.
Thanks. I don’t have the best memory so I can’t remember that, but makes sense. Hopefully if they have a new one it becomes the second.
 
A mobile Nintendogs game could really come in handy right about now, just saying...

Regarding expectations for the FY2024 lineup I still think DK is too big of an early exclusive for the Switch 2 to waste on Switch for the sake of moving hardware (which would be limited by the fact we already have a DK game).
I think we could see:
August: mysterious Action game ported by Bandai Namco (if it's Kid Icarus I'd wager a 4M seller);
September: Zelda WW/TP (6M+ seller, Skyward Sword sold more, not less and a good portion of the Zelda fans want a different Hyrule from BotW/TotK now);
October: MP4 (4M + next gen version on Switch 2 in March/April);
November: Fire Emblem Remake (3M+ with a better story and less controversial artstyle than Engage);
December: Rhythm Paradise or Pushmo all in one package (1.5M).
March: Pokémon Legends Z-A as a cross gen title alongside the launch of the Switch 2 (12M on base Switch, who knows how many on Switch 2)
 
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Tomodatchi 5mil [3Ds episode sold 6+, let's imagine a diminished novelty effect partially balanced by the Switch active userbase at a ww level compared to the 3DS]
Unless they completely mess it up, there's no way a Switch entry sells less than the 3DS entry, especially after how Animal Crossing blew up.
Pokémon Legends Z: 11mil [based on the 15mil of Arceus, with less wow factor and more brand saturation]
11m would be really bad, this isn't Ultra Sun and Ultra Moon but a brand new game.
 
Unless they completely mess it up, there's no way a Switch entry sells less than the 3DS entry, especially after how Animal Crossing blew up.

11m would be really bad, this isn't Ultra Sun and Ultra Moon but a brand new game.


Well, I tried to "stay calm" with my predictions lol
But

Tomodatchi COULD have been a "lightning in a bottle" moment? The game is SO WEIRD (in a good way!) that I'm not sure we can't consider it a "stable" seller, so I tried to put some diminishing return effect there

About Pokémon Legends, the same: Arceus has been SO NEW and different that MAYBE another "similar" game would see a decline: from 14 to 11mil being also so late in the lifetime COULD happen imho (and of course: if it will be compatible, maybe even with a "nextgen patch") on Switch 2, it will sell additional millions (but I was counting Switch-only sales here)

Btw: nothing from my list sounds out of the realm of possibilities in terms of possible development pipeline, I think? Metroid Prime is still officially planned for Switch, Legends Z is officially coming in 2025 for Switch, FE4 Remake has been heavily rumored for awhile, a very-casual game like Tomodatchi COULD totally still be in the Switch-only cards and the HD ports (already in HD) of the 2 Zelda games COULD be in line with Nintendo policy (Switch has had Wii U ports since day 1 and this 2024 pushed strong into the remakes/remaster strategy)

what do you think? this sound plausible and could boost software sales a bit, imho!

 
About Pokémon Legends, the same: Arceus has been SO NEW and different that MAYBE another "similar" game would see a decline: from 14 to 11mil being also so late in the lifetime COULD happen imho (and of course: if it will be compatible, maybe even with a "nextgen patch") on Switch 2, it will sell additional millions (but I was counting Switch-only sales here)
PLA was already at 15M last June and didn't stop selling. I think 11M is likely going to be it's opening quarter shipment and unless there's a new gen Pokémon game coming 10 months later like how SV came out after PLA, I think it's going to have decent legs.
 
I just realized that the most exciting sales-related part of Switch 2 will be to observe which franchises manage to outsell their Switch 1-predecessors. Generally, I expect pretty much all of them to decrease. Still very successful, but I see the Switch 1-entries' sales as a one-time high. Would be very glad to be wrong, though.
 
I just realized that the most exciting sales-related part of Switch 2 will be to observe which franchises manage to outsell their Switch 1-predecessors. Generally, I expect pretty much all of them to decrease. Still very successful, but I see the Switch 1-entries' sales as a one-time high. Would be very glad to be wrong, though.
Maybe next Zelda will not outsell Breath of the wild but it could outsell Tears of the kingdom at least.
 
Well, I tried to "stay calm" with my predictions lol
But

Tomodatchi COULD have been a "lightning in a bottle" moment? The game is SO WEIRD (in a good way!) that I'm not sure we can't consider it a "stable" seller, so I tried to put some diminishing return effect there

About Pokémon Legends, the same: Arceus has been SO NEW and different that MAYBE another "similar" game would see a decline: from 14 to 11mil being also so late in the lifetime COULD happen imho (and of course: if it will be compatible, maybe even with a "nextgen patch") on Switch 2, it will sell additional millions (but I was counting Switch-only sales here)

Btw: nothing from my list sounds out of the realm of possibilities in terms of possible development pipeline, I think? Metroid Prime is still officially planned for Switch, Legends Z is officially coming in 2025 for Switch, FE4 Remake has been heavily rumored for awhile, a very-casual game like Tomodatchi COULD totally still be in the Switch-only cards and the HD ports (already in HD) of the 2 Zelda games COULD be in line with Nintendo policy (Switch has had Wii U ports since day 1 and this 2024 pushed strong into the remakes/remaster strategy)

what do you think? this sound plausible and could boost software sales a bit, imho!


PLA gonna do 17mil lifetime,

Even if PLZA has a decline it's not gonna sell under 14mil lifetime at all. Launch alone will be near 10mil
 
I think many series can break new records depending on the game. We should talk about the really very very hard ones to break:
mario kart
Smash
Zelda BOTW
Animal Crossing

Many games like Mario Party can break their record only with more content, more production value, more time(Pokemon) and a strong multiplayer. In fact, multiplayer aspect is valid for almost all Nintendo series.
 
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Maybe next Zelda will not outsell Breath of the wild but it could outsell Tears of the kingdom at least.
I also think next mainline Zelda is likey to do better than TotK but worse than BotW, heck, who knows where BotW will be in 5 years, especially with the remaster they used as a tech demo for Switch 2.

I think DK, Kirby, Splatoon, Luigi's Mansion, 2D Metroid and Xenoblade (or equivalent OW RPG from Monolith) are the most likely to exceed their Switch counterparts. I'll be bold and say that I won't rule out MK9 outselling 8 Deluxe, the game will release very early in the lifecycle and it'll probably have the biggest marketing push Nintendo ever made plus a novelty factor that wasn't there on Switch.

Edit: If we get one a brand new 2D Zelda is also likely to become the best seller in its own branch of the series.
 
I think the record-breaking gen has been THIS ONE for Nintendo
I can't really see a Switch 2 going over it (thinking at it as an interaive sequel)
that said, it could totally sell very well and that would probably consolidate Nintendo even more (in the industry, financially, strategically etc...)
 
I think the record-breaking gen has been THIS ONE for Nintendo
I can't really see a Switch 2 going over it (thinking at it as an interaive sequel)
that said, it could totally sell very well and that would probably consolidate Nintendo even more (in the industry, financially, strategically etc...)
Yeah i think Nintendo now has the goal of a much higher baseline of revenue and profits than they have managed before. I mean Nintendo before had very profitable periods like the Wii and DS period but also mediocre periods like Gamecube period and bomb periods like the Wii U period. They probably want to achieve more stable revenue and profit that can be sustained far longer than before.

They also want to continue their diversification effort and increase revenue from other sources than console gaming as well in the coming years.
 
I think the record-breaking gen has been THIS ONE for Nintendo
I can't really see a Switch 2 going over it (thinking at it as an interaive sequel)
that said, it could totally sell very well and that would probably consolidate Nintendo even more (in the industry, financially, strategically etc...)
Oh I don't think all the franchises I listed will make it, I just think them being in the intermediate range between small franchise and megaton 20M+ franchise gives them room to overperform. If you ask me if I think Switch 2 will outsell base Switch, I'd say no. I also don't think any Pokémon game will do quite as well as S/V (unless they change their release cadence), I don't think the next 3D Mario game will exceed Odyssey and neither the next Smash game or AC (this one is the most obvious one of them all). But if a team knocks it out of the park or builds upon what they did in their previous entry in the right way I could see them outselling Switch entries.
 
Oh I don't think all the franchises I listed will make it, I just think them being in the intermediate range between small franchise and megaton 20M+ franchise gives them room to overperform. If you ask me if I think Switch 2 will outsell base Switch, I'd say no. I also don't think any Pokémon game will do quite as well as S/V (unless they change their release cadence), I don't think the next 3D Mario game will exceed Odyssey and neither the next Smash game or AC (this one is the most obvious one of them all). But if a team knocks it out of the park or builds upon what they did in their previous entry in the right way I could see them outselling Switch entries.


Would be nice to see the "baseline" consolidate hw-wise but also the "active user base" being "active" since day 1, imho improving the chances of the "medium IPs" to grow, becoming stronger
 
Games that won’t sell as well as their Switch 1 counterparts no matter what:
Zelda
Smash
Animal Crossing
Mario Kart

Games that could sell better but would still be a challenge:
3D Mario
2D Mario
Pokémon
Splatoon 4
Metroid Prime 5
Metroid 6
Another 3D Kirby
Mario Party

Games that could easily reach new highs:
Another true open world Xenoblade
A Fire Emblem more akin to TH
Pikmin 5

And I’m probably outright forgetting some
 
It hasn't been mentioned yet but Famiboards rooted out some basically confirmed spec details (storage, memory, case size, etc). More RAM than Series S should be welcome news for devs.
 
It hasn't been mentioned yet but Famiboards rooted out some basically confirmed spec details (storage, memory, case size, etc). More RAM than Series S should be welcome news for devs.
Yeah, specs in general look really decent imo. It should be getting close to full third party support. With DLSS it should trade blows with the Series S in terms of docked performance.
 
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