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Nintendo is going into next gen with a lot of momentum... and still several cards to play

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As we slowly go into 2024 and a new era for Nintendo with the expected arrival of its next platform, it is the perfect time to sit and think about Nintendo's current position in the gaming landscape.

Exceptional momentum

2023 was supposed to be a pivotal year for Nintendo. It is the year that marked the company's expansion in Movies, with its most iconic brand, and the launch of the much anticipated sequel of Breath of the Wild.

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So on the one hand, you had a big unknown despite Mario and Illumination's pedigree. On the other hand, you had one of your master cards, the follow-up to a breakthrough hard to dissociate to the Switch success story itself.

April: From Mister Videogame to Mister Movie?

The Super Mario Movie project was in the works for several years. As you well know, Nintendo's first foray into the movie scene was a failure. It pushed the company to pull the plug on that initiative and encouraged them to keep a tighter leesh on their IPs.

When their partnership with Illumination was announced, it both raised financial hopes and concerns. The studio was famous for both its BO successes (The Minions, Despicable Me...) and its critical shortcomings.

Saying that the anticipation and apprehension was high before the first trailer of the movie would be an understatement. It eventually happened through a dedicated Direct (a great symbol of the synergies between Nintendo's gaming culture and its movie initiatives).



I could go on and on about the Movie's roaring success but it is a topic for another day. What's certain is that the movie grossed $1.3B worldwide, and expanded Nintendo/Mario reach beyond what gaming can offer.

It was the first punch, in April, that would put Nintendo's business into an exceptional shape during that quarter and generate ton of momentum.

May: Tears of the Kingdom

Breath of the Wild was a breakthrough for The Legend of Zelda series, far exceeding previous entries. During the 6+ years gap, it continued to sell steadily from less than 3m units in its launch quarter to more than 10 times that amount.

Expectations were high for its direct sequel, Tears of the Kingdom, as fans waited impatiently for years as Nintendo slowly revealed more detail on the latest entry.

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(Credits to Peleo, numbers by the end of 2022)​

However, there were some questions too, the novelty factor faded away and the Switch was just entering its 7th year on the market by showing more and more signs of its aging hardware. How important Tears of the Kingdom would really be for Nintendo ?

It didn't take much time for the answer to come, from the launch of a special OLED edition, to the actual launch and Nintendo's official PR only two weeks passed by.

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Tears of the Kingdom managed the extremely difficult feat of matching BotW's critical reception, set a record for launch sales for Nintendo during one of the calmest month of the year (most records were set in the Holidays previously) and of boosting hardware more than 6 years after its launch:



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Zelda significantly raised the Switch baseline, defying cyclical decline

Switch sales rose worldwide during the quarter, to reach a very strong 3.91M units during Mario & Zelda launch quarter, a 12% growth YoY and simply the biggest outside of the Covid boost in 2020/2021. It puts Nintendo into a very comfortable position to reach their 15M forecast for the whole fiscal year since already 26% of the target is reached.

Even if it utlimately slowed down, at least on the hardware front, the momentum is very strong for an ecosystem that old and the reveal (+ now launch) of Super Mario Wonder confirmed that Nintendo would ride this wave throughout the Holiday season. They are therefore ending 2023 in a very favorable position.

So, with 2-3 significant launches in 2023, did Nintendo blow off their load and is going into 2024 empty handed ?

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A remake of Paper Mario: The Thousand Year Door was Nintendo's biggest announcement during September 2023's Nintendo Direct
We are currently mostly in the dark on the pipeline front. Games are key to have a successful hardware transition, it was abundantely clear for the Switch itself, so what could Nintendo really be preparing for its next console launch window ?
2017-2024: Waiting for Mario

It might sound ludicrous, given the amount of Mario related content we got since April 2023, between the movie, a new 2D Mario, a new Peach subseries coming this March, and a meaty slate of remakes. However, there's Mario and Mario, and for Nintendo, two Mario subseries are treated very specially. Those two Mario subseries have been mostly dormant since 2017, at the exception of new (but mainly outsourced) content between 2021 and 2023.

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For waiting right ? (excerpt of the final Mario Kart 8 Deluxe Booster Pass credit scene, November 2023)
Mario Kart and 3D Mario have been two of the biggest cards of Nintendo's playbook:

  • The Mario Kart franchise has hit incredibly massive mainstream appeal ever since its shift to 3D. However, ever since the DS/Wii, the franchise reached new heights, being the best-selling games on every Nintendo platform ever since (3DS, WiiU, Switch).
  • For 3D Mario, the return to the sandbox formula combined with the Switch's incredible success has put the subseries to a new level. Trailers of Super Mario Odyssey remain, to this point, the most watched for a Nintendo game (55M for the reveal trailer, 41M for the E3 one in Nintendo of America YT account).

Those two massive assets for Nintendo, among the top 5 of best-selling Switch games with 57m units sold for Mario Kart and 27m for Odyssey (as of September 2023), are however pretty much dormant every since. The studios behind these games have not released a new console game since June 2017 (ARMS from the MK team) and October 2017 (Odyssey, from EPD Tokyo). There have been some work done tho, as mentioned before.

They are two of the cards, on Nintendo's sleeves, to deliver a smooth and exciting transition. For Mario Kart, the anticipation is even grander since 8 initially launched in 2014.

2023 : Pivotal year for big Western IPs ?

Funnily enough, it is partially when the Switch entered its last years (and with PS5/Xbox gaining momentum) that the signs for upcoming and meaningful Western 3rd party support were the clearest.

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  • The latest FIFA entry, called EA FC 24, has been moved to the Frostbite engine after years of Legacy support (since 2019)
  • Hogwarts Legacy, 2023's highest selling game, has been released on Switch despite initially being PS5/XB/PC only, a clear sign of the effort invested in order to make the port happen. Sales of the game on Switch have been extremely strong since its launch.
  • As the ABK acquisition closed this year, it is now confirmed that Call of Duty will make its grand return on Nintendo console(s) next year after a decade+ of nothing.

While the reasons behind each of these Switch ports are different, it does position the upcoming platform into a very favorable position. They won't get everything, but they'll get the games that matter the most for mainstream audiences (with GaaS support being also strong). The only remaining member of the holy trifeca, which carried the PS/Xbox since the PS3/X360 era, is Grand Theft Auto. Its presence or absence will have an impact for 2025 sales and beyond.

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GTA VI is a big question mark, with a 2025 release date, it is ideally placed to generate momentum for a new console, only a dream ?
A few risks

  • Risk of delay - while the mometum is very strong for a console that old, the Switch still slowed down significantly this Holiday season despite the release of Super Mario Bros. Wonder. If the successor slips to 2025 (because software isn't ready for instance), then 2024 might be a big struggle.​

  • Pricing - The Nintendo Switch released in 2017 at 299$/330€/32.980Y but since then, there has been a big inflation happening and the OLED (which is a bit more expensive) is still the model with the lower margins. An increase is therefore expected, at the risk of cutting a part of Nintendo's audience. The low Yen might also make the jump higher in Japan, which would threathen domestic sales (on which several 1st/3rd party franchises on Switch relied on). The way they'll handle the Switch after its successor launches will be a key aspect to make the smooth transition they are looking for.​

  • No new Zelda game for a while - Tears of the Kindgom released in 2023 with a 6 years gap with Breath of the Wild. This is one of Nintendo's biggest assets both comercially and critically, putting the franchise in the league of other huge hardware movers. This also fills a big hole in Nintendo's library, with very few open world games coming from 3rd party publishers (those don't usually scale down well on lower powered devices). So when will the new open air Zelda release ? Probably not before 2028, and that's with Aonuma confirming that no DLC will release for Tears.​


To conclude, it does seem like Nintendo is potentially in a very good position to launch a new platform in 2024. 2023 is ending on a high note for the firm, which closed the year at the highest market cap of its whole history. Confidence is high but I'd like to take this occasions to ask you, in your opinion, how Nintendo could ensure the best transition possible, and how could it solve the risks I mentioned and/or the ones you have in mind ?

2024 will be a very exciting year
for that very reason, speculating and ultimately knowing Nintendo's grand plan for a very important "smooth transition".

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Ninteflood is new future as Endless Ocean exist lol.
 
Regarding Metroid Prime 4: What do you think? If the game is crossgen, would Nintendo release Switch 1 version EARLIER than Switch 2 version (e.g. Switch 1 version holiday 2024 and Switch 2 version spring 2025) OR will they release both versions on the same day OR will Switch 2 version be time-exclusive? I personally think that they will do a time-exclusive Switch 2 version, for example:

- Switch 2 Launch in March 2025, releasing with 3D Mario and EPD4 casual game
- MP4 for Switch 2 in April 2025
- MP4 for Switch 1 in June 2025

Something close to this
 
The Switch final year will be mostly marketed towards kids and people that don't play much. Like I have a good few friends that work a lot and don't play much asking me about the Switch to play with their kids and families. I think there is still room for sales there and Nintendo will go after whatever audience they can reach with the huge Switch catelog of previously released titles. No need for a constant stream of heavy hitters anymore. It's the first time after the NES and GB that Nintendo is actually handling a life cycle well.
 
Regarding Metroid Prime 4: What do you think? If the game is crossgen, would Nintendo release Switch 1 version EARLIER than Switch 2 version (e.g. Switch 1 version holiday 2024 and Switch 2 version spring 2025) OR will they release both versions on the same day OR will Switch 2 version be time-exclusive? I personally think that they will do a time-exclusive Switch 2 version, for example:

- Switch 2 Launch in March 2025, releasing with 3D Mario and EPD4 casual game
- MP4 for Switch 2 in April 2025
- MP4 for Switch 1 in June 2025

Something close to this
What would be the benefit to be timed exclusive to Switch 2 for two months?
 
^
I don't think Switch 2 needs MP4 to sell it during launch period though... it would be completely unnecessary.
 
Do we think the Switch will get its first Call of Duty this year? If it does, a Pokémon + Metroid Prime 4 + CoD Holiday would be great.

Also, talking about drought or no new games/only remasters before the first Nintendo Direct of the year is so dumb I don't even know why yall are giving that person any attention. Sounds like concern trolling to me.
 
Regarding Metroid Prime 4: What do you think? If the game is crossgen, would Nintendo release Switch 1 version EARLIER than Switch 2 version (e.g. Switch 1 version holiday 2024 and Switch 2 version spring 2025) OR will they release both versions on the same day OR will Switch 2 version be time-exclusive? I personally think that they will do a time-exclusive Switch 2 version, for example:

- Switch 2 Launch in March 2025, releasing with 3D Mario and EPD4 casual game
- MP4 for Switch 2 in April 2025
- MP4 for Switch 1 in June 2025

Something close to this
I think Metroid Prime 4 could act as a Zelda in the Switch 2 launch period, meaning bringing in a group of core gamers that spread the word. Metroid Prime 4 will probably have huge sales because they've been developing it for 5+ years now and unless something went wrong during development I think that is a sign that they invested big in the title. I think that Nintendo will release it for both Switch and Switch 2 simultaneously though but I like the idea of 2 month exclusivity.
 
Twilight Princess GCN launched a month after the Wii SKU in North America (elsewhere, the GCN SKU either launched a week later or on the same day as the Wii SKU). AFAIK this is only cross gen Nintendo game that had an earlier release date on the new gen platform than the old.

With that being said I doubt this will happen with Prime 4. Either its a Switch 1-only release at launch or a cross-gen release.
 
MP4 needs Switch 1. MP4 ain't selling Switch 2 and MP4 doesn't need 4K graphics. It needs a large audience to grow the ip.

We know literally nothing about the game, it probably won't even be finished before the Switch 2 releases because Nintendo has refused to share any info on the game in over five years and didn't show it at the September Direct and didn't have a February Direct.
 
I still find the fact that we literally have never even seen a single nanosecond of Prime 4 beyond a logo quite worrisome. You'd think, at some point, they could have slipped us at least a 5 second teaser reminder of some sort.
 
Regarding Metroid Prime 4: What do you think? If the game is crossgen, would Nintendo release Switch 1 version EARLIER than Switch 2 version (e.g. Switch 1 version holiday 2024 and Switch 2 version spring 2025) OR will they release both versions on the same day OR will Switch 2 version be time-exclusive? I personally think that they will do a time-exclusive Switch 2 version, for example:

- Switch 2 Launch in March 2025, releasing with 3D Mario and EPD4 casual game
- MP4 for Switch 2 in April 2025
- MP4 for Switch 1 in June 2025

Something close to this
While a timed exclusive method does have precedent (Twilight Princess Wii launched with the Wii, and Twilight Princess GCN didn't come out until a few weeks later) - I don't think they'll do that this time. The Switch version of Prime 4 will launch at latest alongside the Switch 2 version imo, and there's a reasonable chance the Switch version comes this year with the Switch 2 SKU as a launch title later down the line.

----
I still find the fact that we literally have never even seen a single nanosecond of Prime 4 beyond a logo quite worrisome. You'd think, at some point, they could have slipped us at least a 5 second teaser reminder of some sort.
Tbf, one could've made the same argument for Bayonetta 3, or Detective Pikachu Returns, or SMTV - all of which had fairly long gaps after their initial reveal before we saw anything actually from the games themselves properly - I don't really think the lack of any news should necessarily be seen as worrisome.

A June full reveal, followed by a standard Switch-era marketing cycle for an October/November launch wouldn't surprise me - the only real difference then between the pre-release cycle for Prime 4 and the ones for Dread and Samus Returns would be the really long time of us knowing it exists but nothing about it.
 
We know literally nothing about the game, it probably won't even be finished before the Switch 2 releases because Nintendo has refused to share any info on the game in over five years and didn't show it at the September Direct and didn't have a February Direct.
How much did we know about Endless Ocean? This is Nintendo, you never know what to expect. MP4 was also announced for Switch, so I can see them honoring their promise.
 
How much did we know about Endless Ocean? This is Nintendo, you never know what to expect. MP4 was also announced for Switch, so I can see them honoring their promise.

Endless Ocean looks like a small budget title (not even releasing at full price).

Metroid Prime 4 was announced 7 years ago.

If they could have shown it at the September 2023 Direct, they would have.

It will definitely release on Switch as every job ad says it's for the Switch.

It probably won't release until Spring 2025 though so might as well make a Switch 2 version with DLSS and better textures.
 
Endless Ocean looks like a small budget title (not even releasing at full price).

Metroid Prime 4 was announced 7 years ago.

If they could have shown it at the September 2023 Direct, they would have.

It will definitely release on Switch as every job ad says it's for the Switch.

It probably won't release until Spring 2025 though so might as well make a Switch 2 version with DLSS and better textures.
Development was revamped in 2019 though, we can't just assume it would have been shown off in September Direct. Rumors are pointing to it hitting this year, I think from Jeff Grub who also called Epic Mickey remaster. So I guess we will have to wait and see but I do believe Nintendo would hold onto a surprise like that. No need to announce it if it's a September or October 2024 release. Keep it for June Direct.
 
Development was revamped in 2019 though, we can't just assume it would have been shown off in September Direct. Rumors are pointing to it hitting this year, I think from Jeff Grub who also called Epic Mickey remaster. So I guess we will have to wait and see but I do believe Nintendo would hold onto a surprise like that. No need to announce it if it's a September or October 2024 release. Keep it for June Direct.

Well that's not at all what Nintendo has done for other constantly delayed projects. Pikmin 4 was reshown 10 months before release and Bayonetta 3 was reshown 13 months before release. Detective Pikachu Returns is the only long delayed title with a quick turnaround and that was a not very anticipated, extremely low budget cash-in.

The September Direct was pretty brutal and was followed by a Direct with only one Nintendo game. Metroid Prime 4 being shown to get people excited would have helped those Directs a lot.
 
Well that's not at all what Nintendo has done for other constantly delayed projects. Pikmin 4 was reshown 10 months before release and Bayonetta 3 was reshown 13 months before release. Detective Pikachu Returns is the only long delayed title with a quick turnaround and that was a not very anticipated, extremely low budget cash-in.

The September Direct was pretty brutal and was followed by a Direct with only one Nintendo game. Metroid Prime 4 being shown to get people excited would have helped those Directs a lot.
Dread came out of no where correct? Metroid Prime remaster as well if I'm not mistaken. Maybe this is just what they do with Metroid.
 
Dread came out of no where correct? Metroid Prime remaster as well if I'm not mistaken. Maybe this is just what they do with Metroid.

I feel like there's a pretty big difference considering that Prime 4's announcement/development is an embarrassment for Nintendo and is much more comparable to Pikmin 4.
 
I feel like there's a pretty big difference considering that Prime 4's announcement/development is an embarrassment for Nintendo and is much more comparable to Pikmin 4.
It's literally the same franchise, pretty sure their was a bigger wait Metroid Dread than the wait for Metriod Prime 4. Metroid Dread was considered vaporware and came out of left field. I don't think it's unreasonable to think it might happen here as well. Think you are being too pessitimic about the situation, I don't think we got Metroid Dread and Prime remaster for nothing. We will see.
 
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It's literally the same franchise, pretty sure their was a bigger wait Metroid Dread than the wait for Metriod Prime 4. Metroid Dread was considered vaporware and came out of left field. I don't think it's unreasonable to think it might happen here as well. Think you are being too pessitimic about the situation, I don't think we got Metroid Dread and Prime remaster for nothing. We will see.
Just a note, but Metroid Dread was also never officially announced back in the day - but merely strongly rumoured. For something to be vapourware, it'd require it to have at least been announced.
 
Just a note, but Metroid Dread was also never officially announced back in the day - but merely strongly rumoured. For something to be vapourware, it'd require it to have at least been announced.
It was soft announced at E3 2005. Essentially, Nintendo sent an early version of a press kit for titles featured at their booth which included Metroid Dread to gaming journalists. The appearance at E3 was canned right before and they removed it from the proper kit featured for the show but it was mentioned at the preview event like other titles featured in the show. That mention though seems like it was going to something akin to Metroid Prime 4's reveal at E3 2017
 
If switch 2 really is hitting march 2025. 0 reason to doubt switch to outsell ps2. It will past it by some millions too.
The Switch has now sold 140 million units, including just over 15 million this current fiscal year, according to forecasts. To overtake the PS2, the Nintendo Switch would have to sell more than 18 million units from the next fiscal year until the end of its life, even though the next generation will be released after that. It's not totally impossible, but it's very, very far from being an easy or foregone conclusion in my opinion.

So I have a question. What existing games do you think will be launch window titles for the Switch 2? We're not talking about new games as that'd be either easy or impossible to answer (3D Mario, Mario Kart, Metroid Prime 4), but games that have already been either announced or released. Here's four I can think of:

Baldur's Gate 3 - I think this one's a matter of time, very much due to that one Nintendo employee credited on the game. Divinity Original Sin 2 released on Switch, and Larian has done massive work to optimize Baldur's Gate 3 since it's release to the point where I think it can likely run fairly well on the Switch successor.

Hi-Fi Rush, Sea of Thieves - I also think these two are headed for the Switch successor. These are for all intents and purposes "current-gen games" (SoT is on Xbox One but it didnt get a PS4 release), though I imagine work is being done on these two to optimize them for a Switch 2 launch, judging from the Hi-Fi Rush datamine. Microsoft wants these games on as many platforms as possible, after all.

Visions of Mana - This one is admittedly cope, I guess. But I can still see Square Enix giving the late port treatment especially since the Switch 2 won't come all too long after this releases. The Mana series has a sizable audience on Nintendo consoles, with Trials of Mana doing fairly well on Switch.
RDR2 and Elden Ring would be the choices that would make me happiest, personally. I can also imagine things like Cyberpunk or GTA IV, if Rockstar doesn't want to port GTA V without online for the time being. Dark Soul 2 and 3 are also things that seem possible to me, maybe a Master Chief Collection given Xbox's new policy. And of course, at the very least, Final Fantasy XIII collecton and maybe, at some point Final Fantasy XV , Nintendo gamers have been waiting for for so long.


If Nintendo thinks they can wait to announce this all the way to January 2025 with the shareholders raging against them increasily for the collapse of hardware and software sales all year they live in dreamland. They have to face the reality; The massive screw up of not having the console out this year means they will have to eat that failure, there is no Tears of the Kingdom or Mario Wonder coming to the rescue this year, its remasters all year and collapse in sales, and their only salvation is to to pivot away from the present and start to hype up their future releases on the Switch 2.
I think you may be confusing your own impatience, which I can understand, with Nintendo's situation. Even though I completely agree that shareholders are sometimes stupid, for example when they are unable to find out enough about the breakdown of the revenue generated by Pokémon go! I think that a 2024 release without a consoler seller ready would be much more problematic than, say, a 4-month so called delay (since Nintendo never announced anything yet).

MP4 needs switch 2 more than the inverse
I kind of disagree with that. MP4 would go very well with the installed base (haha) of Switch 1 in my opinion, and a level of technical quality equivalent to Prime Remastered would in my opinion be sufficient for a Switch 1 exclusive release, but a release, for example at launch of Switch 2 alongside 3D Mario or Mario Kart 9 would be a great way to show off Switch 2. Not from a technical point of view (I'm obviously expecting the Switch 2 to have ITS Prime 5) but in terms of variety and complementarity of target audiences. Releasing MP4, even crossgen, at the same time as the Switch 2 makes a ton of sense, in my opinion.

We don't have to believe anything, but to imply that Nintendo denying 3rd-parties an entire holiday season wouldn't have negative repercussions is naive at best. Again: Reliability is the #1 issue that pushed 3rd-parties towards Sony. A delay from 2024 to 2025 isn't helping get rid of that stigma.
I agree with you. However, I think it's also "naive" to think that the niche of video game forum enthusiasts represents consumers in general, including those needed by third-party publishers. If the Switch 2 sells well, third parties will want to eat their share. If it fails, they'll obviously let it die. It's as simple as that, there's nothing melodramatic about it in my opinion, just pragmatism.




That would be like what....6 bil. $?

Does it really matter that much? After all, if you listen to them, Nintendo really should have abandoned games consoles and made Candy Crush instead. That's what shareholders wanted in 2015.

The way everyone is hand wringing over this you would think that... Nintendo actually announced Switch 2 and then delayed it instead of rumors announcing Switch 2 for a certain window and then delaying it. Sorta like how rumors announced the Switch Pro, said devs had it then it got cancelled randomly. If 3rd parties weren't annoyed with that supposed scenario then I think it's fine.
What's important here, however, is not what the general public officially knows, but what third-party publishers know. Yet, I'm rather surprised by the narrative trying to explain to us that 4 months of potential delays is a form of unbearable apocalypse for the industry as a whole.

Third parties being annoyed from a supposed 3-4 months delay of a Nintendo console that isn't yet announced, name a bigger joke.
I completely agree. And trying to ensure that your first party libary is absolutely ready for launch is simply not a mistake at all, except for people a little out of touch with the reality of consumers and targeted audience by the Switch 2, in my opinion.

I find it extremely interesting, that after this rumor, I'm reading all over the place that yes, now the switch has a shot at outselling the PS2.

I don't really think people comprehend just how close the switch is to the PS2(140 million switches are out in the wild)and just how much the switch sells every year. The switch was destined to outsell the PS2, ever since we all watched it's stratospheric rise, and how quickly it shot past 120million. Unless Nintendo just stops all production of the product immediately upon switch 2 release, its an inevitability, and has been for awhile now.

Just an observation
As I've already said, selling more than 18 million units of Switch 1, which is what's needed to reach the record, seems very, very ambitious to me. Even imagining that this fiscal year, despite the doom and gloom of some observers, Switch 1 managed to sell 10 million units, we'd still be 8 million sales short AFTER the release of Switch 2. That's simply torpid, I think.
 
I kind of disagree with that. MP4 would go very well with the installed base (haha) of Switch 1 in my opinion, and a level of technical quality equivalent to Prime Remastered would in my opinion be sufficient for a Switch 1 exclusive release, but a release, for example at launch of Switch 2 alongside 3D Mario or Mario Kart 9 would be a great way to show off Switch 2. Not from a technical point of view (I'm obviously expecting the Switch 2 to have ITS Prime 5) but in terms of variety and complementarity of target audiences. Releasing MP4, even crossgen, at the same time as the Switch 2 makes a ton of sense, in my opinion.
I don't mean in absolute terms. Drake doesn't need to wait for MP4 to do anything substantial. likewise, the base would be more inclined to have bought a Drake system anyway. MP4 will do fine, though I wonder, being a hardcore-oriented IP, if it would suffer from Switch malaise more than more wider audience games. but the Metroid base is nothing if not faithful and should show out even if certain sects complain about the aging system
 
3DS managed to sell just under 10M after Switch was released. While there is the argument that the libraries were fully diverged, which propped 3DS value, I do think Switch has some definitive qualities that could make it sell as much if not higher than what 3DS managed after Switch launch. We need to see Switch 2 first of course, but a higher price ($399) would make Switch still be a desirable console for those on a budget ($299 - $199). We can't also discount the possibility of Nintendo doing a cost optimized version of Switch, much like 2DS XL, to prop up sales. And, of course, the big library of software that will continue to be supported by 3P and 1P, albeit at a much smaller rate and importancy.

Someone pointed this out on my Twitter, but Nintendo has forecasted ~1.8M sales for this Q4 24 FY. While we don't have hard numbers (Sans Japan minus Nintendo Store), based on the tidbits shared monthly and weekly about American and European markets, it's very likely that this forecast will be actually beaten. It's also very likely that Switch will sell around 10 - 12M units this next FY, depending on Switch 2 launch and Nintendo software slate for this year. So by the time it's replaced, we'll be looking at an install base of 152M+.

So I think it's very likely that Switch will surpass PS2 record by the time manufacturing ends, be it the record 155M, 158M or 161M.
 
Yeah, Switch is at 140M until December 2023, Calendar year 2023 they shipped 16.81M units, worst case scenario CY 2024 would be 10M units, that would be an already very unusual 40% down, so I'm thinking more like a 12M for CY2024 think so a -28% result, I don't think successor changes trends so much as people buying an 8 year old Switch, are mostly not the same people who buy a likely more expensive devise, but if it has the holidays for itself and Nintendo lowers the price they are more likely to get reach or even surpass that 12M number. That puts Switch at a 152M total by the end of the 2024, another 10M after that could or couldn't happen, but I'm leaning towards yes.
 
The Switch has now sold 140 million units, including just over 15 million this current fiscal year, according to forecasts. To overtake the PS2, the Nintendo Switch would have to sell more than 18 million units from the next fiscal year until the end of its life, even though the next generation will be released after that. It's not totally impossible, but it's very, very far from being an easy or foregone conclusion in my opinion.


RDR2 and Elden Ring would be the choices that would make me happiest, personally. I can also imagine things like Cyberpunk or GTA IV, if Rockstar doesn't want to port GTA V without online for the time being. Dark Soul 2 and 3 are also things that seem possible to me, maybe a Master Chief Collection given Xbox's new policy. And of course, at the very least, Final Fantasy XIII collecton and maybe, at some point Final Fantasy XV , Nintendo gamers have been waiting for for so long.



I think you may be confusing your own impatience, which I can understand, with Nintendo's situation. Even though I completely agree that shareholders are sometimes stupid, for example when they are unable to find out enough about the breakdown of the revenue generated by Pokémon go! I think that a 2024 release without a consoler seller ready would be much more problematic than, say, a 4-month so called delay (since Nintendo never announced anything yet).


I kind of disagree with that. MP4 would go very well with the installed base (haha) of Switch 1 in my opinion, and a level of technical quality equivalent to Prime Remastered would in my opinion be sufficient for a Switch 1 exclusive release, but a release, for example at launch of Switch 2 alongside 3D Mario or Mario Kart 9 would be a great way to show off Switch 2. Not from a technical point of view (I'm obviously expecting the Switch 2 to have ITS Prime 5) but in terms of variety and complementarity of target audiences. Releasing MP4, even crossgen, at the same time as the Switch 2 makes a ton of sense, in my opinion.


I agree with you. However, I think it's also "naive" to think that the niche of video game forum enthusiasts represents consumers in general, including those needed by third-party publishers. If the Switch 2 sells well, third parties will want to eat their share. If it fails, they'll obviously let it die. It's as simple as that, there's nothing melodramatic about it in my opinion, just pragmatism.

Does it really matter that much? After all, if you listen to them, Nintendo really should have abandoned games consoles and made Candy Crush instead. That's what shareholders wanted in 2015.


What's important here, however, is not what the general public officially knows, but what third-party publishers know. Yet, I'm rather surprised by the narrative trying to explain to us that 4 months of potential delays is a form of unbearable apocalypse for the industry as a whole.


I completely agree. And trying to ensure that your first party libary is absolutely ready for launch is simply not a mistake at all, except for people a little out of touch with the reality of consumers and targeted audience by the Switch 2, in my opinion.


As I've already said, selling more than 18 million units of Switch 1, which is what's needed to reach the record, seems very, very ambitious to me. Even imagining that this fiscal year, despite the doom and gloom of some observers, Switch 1 managed to sell 10 million units, we'd still be 8 million sales short AFTER the release of Switch 2. That's simply torpid, I think.

Switch sold 140m by now. Adding a basic conservative of 11m for next FY will put it at 151m. And when Switch 2 drop on 2025.

Following 3ds lifetime where it adds another 10m after Switch release despite 3ds being less desirable to market.

It is guarantee for Switch to at least get another 10m for next 2025-2028 till its end of its life unless immediately cut short Switch Life which is not logical because Nintendo will still need Switch to maintain mindshare to many region that wont get Switch 2 early.
 
According to Felipe from Famiboards, the next Switch should be revealed next month.

This was reported earlier this week by Nate Drake in his YouTube podcast (Nate the Hate).
And guys, are you ready for the Switch 2 reveal on Friday? 🥳 🙃
 
I am personally curious if the next Switch will suffer from transition issues like the current consoles where a lot of people just decided to stick to old gen consoles. Though I am not sure if there will be that many with Switch OG support at launch.
 
Yeah, Switch is at 140M until December 2023, Calendar year 2023 they shipped 16.81M units, worst case scenario CY 2024 would be 10M units, that would be an already very unusual 40% down, so I'm thinking more like a 12M for CY2024 think so a -28% result, I don't think successor changes trends so much as people buying an 8 year old Switch, are mostly not the same people who buy a likely more expensive devise, but if it has the holidays for itself and Nintendo lowers the price they are more likely to get reach or even surpass that 12M number. That puts Switch at a 152M total by the end of the 2024, another 10M after that could or couldn't happen, but I'm leaning towards yes.
The decline of Switch console sales should accelerate this year because this year will have no console selling releases like Tears of the kingdom and to some extent Mario Wonder happening. Only releasing remasters all year should lead to a steep decline compared to last year for the Switch, mostly in Europe and America though because its popularity in Japan.
 
I am personally curious if the next Switch will suffer from transition issues like the current consoles where a lot of people just decided to stick to old gen consoles. Though I am not sure if there will be that many with Switch OG support at launch.

I think the perceived added value is higher for Switch to switch 2 than from ps4 from PS5 transition for the mainstream audience. Switch definitely shows its age, while PS4 could still deliver (and did, with lots of cross gen). That is, if the rumored specs end up being true.

Also Mario kart in the first months should help a lot.
 
if the Switch 2 is as much of an improvement tech wise over the regular Switch as the leaks/rumors/whatever claim it is I don't think there will be much difficulty in convincing folks to upgrade.
 
The decline of Switch console sales should accelerate this year because this year will have no console selling releases like Tears of the kingdom and to some extent Mario Wonder happening. Only releasing remasters all year should lead to a steep decline compared to last year for the Switch, mostly in Europe and America though because its popularity in Japan.
Yeah, I already took that in consideration, 2022 to 2023 CY decline was 10%,in a big part because Zelda special edition, in a year where we don’t know if there will be special editions like this one, a decline of +25% seems likely, and that is still more than 12M.
 
Yeah, I already took that in consideration, 2022 to 2023 CY decline was 10%,in a big part because Zelda special edition, in a year where we don’t know if there will be special editions like this one, a decline of +25% seems likely, and that is still more than 12M.

I think it will decline more than 25% YoY. January and February are so far close to a 30% decline level and in months like April or May, the decline will be even worse because last year Zelda TotK pushed the sales on a high level during that period. I think a decline of ~35% sounds more reasonable for the whole year 2024. But even then, Switch would still do ~11M units in 2024 which is still a pretty good result
 
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Some of ya'll probably care more about Switch's performance in 2024 than Nintendo themselves. Yeah sales will decline but will it really matter that much for such an old platform? As long as Switch player engagement remains strong (they are), then Switch can coast by with remakes and remasters now while Nintendo builds hype for Switch 2 and its games to look forward to in the future.
 
I am personally curious if the next Switch will suffer from transition issues like the current consoles where a lot of people just decided to stick to old gen consoles. Though I am not sure if there will be that many with Switch OG support at launch.

The longer the transition take and the bigger the leap. The easier the transition will be. If the leap of Switch to Switch 2 is like 2 or 3 times more stronger.

And it comes with big system seller like Mario Kart, Mario 3D, Casual title like Switch Sports, Hardcore Rpg games like Xenoblade/Fire Emblem or even some wild card like Donkey Kong or in launch year. There is 0 reason for people to stick on Switch 1 unless it is financial reason.
 
The longer the transition take and the bigger the leap. The easier the transition will be. If the leap of Switch to Switch 2 is like 2 or 3 times more stronger.

And it comes with big system seller like Mario Kart, Mario 3D, Casual title like Switch Sports, Hardcore Rpg games like Xenoblade/Fire Emblem or even some wild card like Donkey Kong or in launch year. There is 0 reason for people to stick on Switch 1 unless it is financial reason.

But, if we go by the leaks, it means that there is no further developments on the specs side. We were getting the same Super Switch either late 2023 or early 2025.

I am not a power w (Lastly Im playing N64 games), but there are some concerns about the chip that no one should ignore, like the power consumption efficiency.
 
More like 6x at minimum😛

I am not well versed on tech power lol. But if thats real then the leap is going to be surely big enough to bring more people by power alone.

With proper software then i think it should do the launch good.

But, if we go by the leaks, it means that there is no further developments on the specs side. We were getting the same Super Switch either late 2023 or early 2025.

I am not a power w (Lastly Im playing N64 games), but there are some concerns about the chip that no one should ignore, like the power consumption efficiency.

Sure. But the leak we get is nintendo wanted to have the software that can move Hw on day one like how BoTW did with switch.

So having that power+ software that can benefit from that power, then it is going to be synergy to push Switch 2
 
I don't know and neither do you. There might be a new Pokemon game this year. There might not be. There's no evidence either way. We could find out here next week at Pokemon day.
And now it's been confirmed that Pokemon Legends Z-A is coming next year. So yeah, nothing big this year. PLZA will at the earliest release two months before the Switch 2, assuming a March 2025 release date for the latter.

Also, something I forgot to point out last week was that these last-minute Pokemon games don't make a huge impact on hardware sales. We saw that with Crystal, Emerald, Black & White, and Ultra Sun & Ultra Moon. Each subsequent Pokemon game tends to have reduced impact on hardware. It's always a downward trend. It's always the first Pokemon game released on a Nintendo system that makes the biggest impact on hardware. If PLZA ends up being cross-gen, it'll matter far more for the Switch 2 than for the Switch 1, just as Twilight Princess mattered more for the Wii and Breath of the Wild mattered more for the Switch.
 
I wouldn't be so hasty to say there's nothing big this year. Prime 4 might be ready for a potential fall release and would receive a big marketing push.

If we say in sales though, indeed we don't have anything confirmed currently that could fill the void of Pokémon
 
And now it's been confirmed that Pokemon Legends Z-A is coming next year. So yeah, nothing big this year. PLZA will at the earliest release two months before the Switch 2, assuming a March 2025 release date for the latter.

Also, something I forgot to point out last week was that these last-minute Pokemon games don't make a huge impact on hardware sales. We saw that with Crystal, Emerald, Black & White, and Ultra Sun & Ultra Moon. Each subsequent Pokemon game tends to have reduced impact on hardware. It's always a downward trend. It's always the first Pokemon game released on a Nintendo system that makes the biggest impact on hardware. If PLZA ends up being cross-gen, it'll matter far more for the Switch 2 than for the Switch 1, just as Twilight Princess mattered more for the Wii and Breath of the Wild mattered more for the Switch.

Same was said for every pokemon game this generation and on top of that The pokemon game releasing next isnt a third version of a main game.

Crystal is director cut gen 2
Emerald is director cut gen 3
BW2 was a direct sequel but it was still very similar and comparable to a director cut (just much more ambitious)
USUM also a director cut aka third version of a generation that just released the year prior.

PLZA though we dont know exactly what it is (can be very different then PLA) is a brand new game with potential food amount of second system seller (OLED).

Of course SwSh the first new ,mainline games had the biggest impact but The other 3 that came out after it did as well (just not the same effect).

But if it releases during nsw2 launch window and is exclusive still, itll move hardware by a good amount imo
 
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