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Nintendo is going into next gen with a lot of momentum... and still several cards to play

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As we slowly go into 2024 and a new era for Nintendo with the expected arrival of its next platform, it is the perfect time to sit and think about Nintendo's current position in the gaming landscape.

Exceptional momentum

2023 was supposed to be a pivotal year for Nintendo. It is the year that marked the company's expansion in Movies, with its most iconic brand, and the launch of the much anticipated sequel of Breath of the Wild.

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So on the one hand, you had a big unknown despite Mario and Illumination's pedigree. On the other hand, you had one of your master cards, the follow-up to a breakthrough hard to dissociate to the Switch success story itself.

April: From Mister Videogame to Mister Movie?

The Super Mario Movie project was in the works for several years. As you well know, Nintendo's first foray into the movie scene was a failure. It pushed the company to pull the plug on that initiative and encouraged them to keep a tighter leesh on their IPs.

When their partnership with Illumination was announced, it both raised financial hopes and concerns. The studio was famous for both its BO successes (The Minions, Despicable Me...) and its critical shortcomings.

Saying that the anticipation and apprehension was high before the first trailer of the movie would be an understatement. It eventually happened through a dedicated Direct (a great symbol of the synergies between Nintendo's gaming culture and its movie initiatives).



I could go on and on about the Movie's roaring success but it is a topic for another day. What's certain is that the movie grossed $1.3B worldwide, and expanded Nintendo/Mario reach beyond what gaming can offer.

It was the first punch, in April, that would put Nintendo's business into an exceptional shape during that quarter and generate ton of momentum.

May: Tears of the Kingdom

Breath of the Wild was a breakthrough for The Legend of Zelda series, far exceeding previous entries. During the 6+ years gap, it continued to sell steadily from less than 3m units in its launch quarter to more than 10 times that amount.

Expectations were high for its direct sequel, Tears of the Kingdom, as fans waited impatiently for years as Nintendo slowly revealed more detail on the latest entry.

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(Credits to Peleo, numbers by the end of 2022)​

However, there were some questions too, the novelty factor faded away and the Switch was just entering its 7th year on the market by showing more and more signs of its aging hardware. How important Tears of the Kingdom would really be for Nintendo ?

It didn't take much time for the answer to come, from the launch of a special OLED edition, to the actual launch and Nintendo's official PR only two weeks passed by.

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Tears of the Kingdom managed the extremely difficult feat of matching BotW's critical reception, set a record for launch sales for Nintendo during one of the calmest month of the year (most records were set in the Holidays previously) and of boosting hardware more than 6 years after its launch:



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Zelda significantly raised the Switch baseline, defying cyclical decline

Switch sales rose worldwide during the quarter, to reach a very strong 3.91M units during Mario & Zelda launch quarter, a 12% growth YoY and simply the biggest outside of the Covid boost in 2020/2021. It puts Nintendo into a very comfortable position to reach their 15M forecast for the whole fiscal year since already 26% of the target is reached.

Even if it utlimately slowed down, at least on the hardware front, the momentum is very strong for an ecosystem that old and the reveal (+ now launch) of Super Mario Wonder confirmed that Nintendo would ride this wave throughout the Holiday season. They are therefore ending 2023 in a very favorable position.

So, with 2-3 significant launches in 2023, did Nintendo blow off their load and is going into 2024 empty handed ?

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A remake of Paper Mario: The Thousand Year Door was Nintendo's biggest announcement during September 2023's Nintendo Direct
We are currently mostly in the dark on the pipeline front. Games are key to have a successful hardware transition, it was abundantely clear for the Switch itself, so what could Nintendo really be preparing for its next console launch window ?
2017-2024: Waiting for Mario

It might sound ludicrous, given the amount of Mario related content we got since April 2023, between the movie, a new 2D Mario, a new Peach subseries coming this March, and a meaty slate of remakes. However, there's Mario and Mario, and for Nintendo, two Mario subseries are treated very specially. Those two Mario subseries have been mostly dormant since 2017, at the exception of new (but mainly outsourced) content between 2021 and 2023.

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For waiting right ? (excerpt of the final Mario Kart 8 Deluxe Booster Pass credit scene, November 2023)
Mario Kart and 3D Mario have been two of the biggest cards of Nintendo's playbook:

  • The Mario Kart franchise has hit incredibly massive mainstream appeal ever since its shift to 3D. However, ever since the DS/Wii, the franchise reached new heights, being the best-selling games on every Nintendo platform ever since (3DS, WiiU, Switch).
  • For 3D Mario, the return to the sandbox formula combined with the Switch's incredible success has put the subseries to a new level. Trailers of Super Mario Odyssey remain, to this point, the most watched for a Nintendo game (55M for the reveal trailer, 41M for the E3 one in Nintendo of America YT account).

Those two massive assets for Nintendo, among the top 5 of best-selling Switch games with 57m units sold for Mario Kart and 27m for Odyssey (as of September 2023), are however pretty much dormant every since. The studios behind these games have not released a new console game since June 2017 (ARMS from the MK team) and October 2017 (Odyssey, from EPD Tokyo). There have been some work done tho, as mentioned before.

They are two of the cards, on Nintendo's sleeves, to deliver a smooth and exciting transition. For Mario Kart, the anticipation is even grander since 8 initially launched in 2014.

2023 : Pivotal year for big Western IPs ?

Funnily enough, it is partially when the Switch entered its last years (and with PS5/Xbox gaining momentum) that the signs for upcoming and meaningful Western 3rd party support were the clearest.

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  • The latest FIFA entry, called EA FC 24, has been moved to the Frostbite engine after years of Legacy support (since 2019)
  • Hogwarts Legacy, 2023's highest selling game, has been released on Switch despite initially being PS5/XB/PC only, a clear sign of the effort invested in order to make the port happen. Sales of the game on Switch have been extremely strong since its launch.
  • As the ABK acquisition closed this year, it is now confirmed that Call of Duty will make its grand return on Nintendo console(s) next year after a decade+ of nothing.

While the reasons behind each of these Switch ports are different, it does position the upcoming platform into a very favorable position. They won't get everything, but they'll get the games that matter the most for mainstream audiences (with GaaS support being also strong). The only remaining member of the holy trifeca, which carried the PS/Xbox since the PS3/X360 era, is Grand Theft Auto. Its presence or absence will have an impact for 2025 sales and beyond.

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GTA VI is a big question mark, with a 2025 release date, it is ideally placed to generate momentum for a new console, only a dream ?
A few risks

  • Risk of delay - while the mometum is very strong for a console that old, the Switch still slowed down significantly this Holiday season despite the release of Super Mario Bros. Wonder. If the successor slips to 2025 (because software isn't ready for instance), then 2024 might be a big struggle.​

  • Pricing - The Nintendo Switch released in 2017 at 299$/330€/32.980Y but since then, there has been a big inflation happening and the OLED (which is a bit more expensive) is still the model with the lower margins. An increase is therefore expected, at the risk of cutting a part of Nintendo's audience. The low Yen might also make the jump higher in Japan, which would threathen domestic sales (on which several 1st/3rd party franchises on Switch relied on). The way they'll handle the Switch after its successor launches will be a key aspect to make the smooth transition they are looking for.​

  • No new Zelda game for a while - Tears of the Kindgom released in 2023 with a 6 years gap with Breath of the Wild. This is one of Nintendo's biggest assets both comercially and critically, putting the franchise in the league of other huge hardware movers. This also fills a big hole in Nintendo's library, with very few open world games coming from 3rd party publishers (those don't usually scale down well on lower powered devices). So when will the new open air Zelda release ? Probably not before 2028, and that's with Aonuma confirming that no DLC will release for Tears.​


To conclude, it does seem like Nintendo is potentially in a very good position to launch a new platform in 2024. 2023 is ending on a high note for the firm, which closed the year at the highest market cap of its whole history. Confidence is high but I'd like to take this occasions to ask you, in your opinion, how Nintendo could ensure the best transition possible, and how could it solve the risks I mentioned and/or the ones you have in mind ?

2024 will be a very exciting year
for that very reason, speculating and ultimately knowing Nintendo's grand plan for a very important "smooth transition".

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An excellent write-up. You managed to sum up some great reasons why this won't be a repeat of "The Nintendo Boom and Bust" myth.
 
I always appreciate these articles. Not having a major Zelda game early on the next console could indeed have a downside. I do expect a remake, perhaps of Link to the Past, but it will never have the same impact as a new 3D Zelda game. GTA VI is a significant question, and I don't anticipate its release. First 2 years its important too

-A good new Pokemon game with no bugs like scarlet and violet
- Next Mario kart
- Metroid Prime 4 which has to be amazing not great but game of the year potential game.

I even expect Nintendo to come with a new gimmick which will suprise us something like DS/3DS a new function but staying true with the dual screen
 
Great write-up!
To me.their main issue is the not easy balance between "true/flat successor" and "new/risky gimmick" in terms od new hardware proposition


We have seen historically how, despite them being very popular, a generational shift could bring tons of issues to a company that has based its success equally on their master software IP but also their specific console USP
 
I wonder if they have some kind of 2d zelda and/or new kind of zelda spinoff ready for next gen. After how well Link's Awakening did on switch I have to imagine a new one was at least considered. As for a spinoff I feel like the botw/totk artstyle is just asking for some kind of multiplayer game with character creation.
 
I'm more interested in how third parties are going to react to a feature equivalent tablet with ps4+ horsepower. The days of "looks like a mobile game" have long since ended and with games being more expensive, the goal is extending reach to more demos. For a lot of companies, Nintendo players represent an untapped market (albeit with a lot of overlap)
 
I'm more interested in how third parties are going to react to a feature equivalent tablet with ps4+ horsepower. The days of "looks like a mobile game" have long since ended and with games being more expensive, the goal is extending reach to more demos. For a lot of companies, Nintendo players represent an untapped market (albeit with a lot of overlap)
Also, people have shown that convenience is important for them.
 
The scenario is less risked than with Wii to Wii U since the Switch's crowd seems to be more reliable in making the transition, but still it's a delicated time where Nintendo can drop the ball if they don't play this right.

High price, unappealing new gimmick, lackluster launch lineup are some of things that could hurt the new console start.
 
I'm more interested in how third parties are going to react to a feature equivalent tablet with ps4+ horsepower. The days of "looks like a mobile game" have long since ended and with games being more expensive, the goal is extending reach to more demos. For a lot of companies, Nintendo players represent an untapped market (albeit with a lot of overlap)
Well, Lelouch touched on things, but the FC24 move makes some pretty strong indications.

Engine support has always been a major sticking point for 3rd-party titles on Switch, and it's no shock that there was little financial investment done by most publishers to port their current engines to Switch (at least initially). And I can reasonably assume that the lower financial investment in investigating engine support for Switch lasted until 2020 for most, which for many publishers gets close to the point of "why would we spend the money doing that when we can spend that money on the next hardware cycle instead and get a jump on that more performant platform Nintendo just started talking about?"

To that, my hypothesis is Frostbite 3 support on Switch is an incidental bonus of work done to port Frostbite 3 to new Nintendo hardware, finding that scaling it back to work for Maxwell GPUs and A57 CPUs from the Ampere GPUs and A78C CPUs expected in new Nintendo hardware was a worthwhile investment while money was already being spent in that direction anyways, and turned out to be easier than they thought it would be back in 2017.

And yeah, most early engine support work for a console happens as much as 2 to 4 years in advance or in parallel with said engine development, the GDC talk Nintendo and Capcom gave jointly in 2017 confirms that.

So this is at least an indication of EA's plans, but could also give us a peek behind the curtain with others. If Frostbite 3 is good to go, what other engines might be?
 
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Well, Lelouch touched on things, but the FC24 move makes some pretty strong indications.

Engine support has always been a major sticking point for 3rd-party titles on Switch, and it's no shock that there was little financial investment done by most publishers to port their current engines to Switch (at least initially). And I can reasonably assume that the lower financial investment in investigating engine support for Switch lasted until 2020 for most, which for many publishers gets close to the point of "why would we spend the money doing that when we can spend that money on the next hardware cycle instead and get a jump on that more performant platform Nintendo just started talking about?"

To that, my hypothesis is Frostbite 3 support on Switch is an incidental bonus of work done to port Frostbite 3 to new Nintendo hardware, finding that scaling it back to work for Maxwell GPUs and A57 CPUs from the Ampere GPUs and A78C CPUs expected in new Nintendo hardware was a worthwhile investment while money was already being spent in that direction anyways, and turned out to be easier than they thought it would be back in 2017.

And yeah, most early engine support work for a console happens as much as 2 to 4 years in advance or in parallel with said engine development, the GDC talk Nintendo and Capcom gave jointly in 2017 confirms that.
the frostbite stuff will never not be funny to me because EA got Battlefield 4 running on mobile back in 2015
 
It's wild how much better the Switch did than the 3DS/Wii U/Wii and yet it never got a CoD unless MS really pushes it out next year.
 
Nintendo has always depended on a few big hits releasing early in the gen. A good hardware and software combo will do the trick. But if for whatever reason they have a weak first year line up they will have trouble selling at a good pace, unlike Sony which sells on hardware and the promise of good things to come. I think the real difference here is that they gave their teams the proper time to make a good console and polish the games for a good first year lineup. They always had trouble maintaining both handheld and console but nowadays they don't need to worry about that. I feel going hybrid was a big turning point for them because they don't have to worry about a bad release pace and they have plenty of talented devs that can deliver a few hits every year.
 
I think Nintendo will save Mario Kart for 2025. It'll be a good game to have after the userbase has expanded a bit from launch. They don't need much for Switch 2 launch next year other than 3D Mario, Metroid Prime 4, and some third party ports to round things out (maybe that crossgen Pokemon game that is rumored too). Longterm, I can see longer dev cycles being a bigger issue with keeping the calendar filled up, and probably more remasters, remakes and ports of their older games to fill in those spots like other studios are doing. Recapturing the success of the Switch is gonna be difficult IMO, I'm sure if Switch 2 is just a beefier, backwards compatible Switch it'll clear 100 million units lifetime, but I'm skeptical it'll match or outsell the original.

My biggest hope is they launch Switch 2 around September and not November, but I'm not banking on it.
 
3D Mario, CoD, Prime, Sports games and Mario Kart + smaller stuff from Nintendo and other devs on the reveal trailer will help.
 
I think Nintendo will save Mario Kart for 2025. It'll be a good game to have after the userbase has expanded a bit from launch. They don't need much for Switch 2 launch next year other than 3D Mario, Metroid Prime 4, and some third party ports to round things out (maybe that crossgen Pokemon game that is rumored too). Longterm, I can see longer dev cycles being a bigger issue with keeping the calendar filled up, and probably more remasters, remakes and ports of their older games to fill in those spots like other studios are doing. Recapturing the success of the Switch is gonna be difficult IMO, I'm sure if Switch 2 is just a beefier, backwards compatible Switch it'll clear 100 million units lifetime, but I'm skeptical it'll match or outsell the original.

My biggest hope is they launch Switch 2 around September and not November, but I'm not banking on it.
mario kart is one of those games that's commonly bought alongside the system, and since they're a once per generation game, there's nothing to supplant it. so waiting to grow the audience doesn't sound all that necessary. feels more likely that they want to give a buffer between the Booster Course Pass and the next Mario Kart.



I didn't know this but IGN corroborated VGC and Eurogamer in the whole, "behind the scenes Gamescom reveal" and added some interesting, and relevant, details

IGN understands the behind-closed-doors gamescom 2023 demos of Switch 2 included demos from third-parties with an understanding of the specifications of the next-gen hardware.

so third parties already has examples running on hardware. it's impossible to say who, but if I had to take a guess, it'd be the closest partners and the studios who Nintendo pushed hard to secure. for that, I'd say Capcom and a Resident Evil game (which can build off of their Apple work they were doing at the time); and possibly CDPR, because what says "our system is super modern" than Cyberpunk?

and I expect CP2077 to be a launch title since Witcher did very well
 
I think Nintendo will save Mario Kart for 2025. It'll be a good game to have after the userbase has expanded a bit from launch. They don't need much for Switch 2 launch next year other than 3D Mario, Metroid Prime 4, and some third party ports to round things out (maybe that crossgen Pokemon game that is rumored too). Longterm, I can see longer dev cycles being a bigger issue with keeping the calendar filled up, and probably more remasters, remakes and ports of their older games to fill in those spots like other studios are doing. Recapturing the success of the Switch is gonna be difficult IMO, I'm sure if Switch 2 is just a beefier, backwards compatible Switch it'll clear 100 million units lifetime, but I'm skeptical it'll match or outsell the original.

My biggest hope is they launch Switch 2 around September and not November, but I'm not banking on it.
There is little reason to grow the base for a game that essentially ships with the console as soon as the first holiday period of its release. I expect it comes out within the launch year perhaps in the same time frame as w/MK8.

To match or exceed the Switch will be dependent on software; specifically a very strong new IP.
 
mario kart is one of those games that's commonly bought alongside the system, and since they're a once per generation game, there's nothing to supplant it. so waiting to grow the audience doesn't sound all that necessary. feels more likely that they want to give a buffer between the Booster Course Pass and the next Mario Kart.



I didn't know this but IGN corroborated VGC and Eurogamer in the whole, "behind the scenes Gamescom reveal" and added some interesting, and relevant, details



so third parties already has examples running on hardware. it's impossible to say who, but if I had to take a guess, it'd be the closest partners and the studios who Nintendo pushed hard to secure. for that, I'd say Capcom and a Resident Evil game (which can build off of their Apple work they were doing at the time); and possibly CDPR, because what says "our system is super modern" than Cyberpunk?

and I expect CP2077 to be a launch title since Witcher did very well
Mario Kart is a game that's also used to push sales early with bundles.
 
2023 was such a big year for Mario, which also caused a slight fatigue for the brand imo. Am I crazy to think that Nintendo shouldn't release a new Mario game next year? Everyone expects a Mario game to release with the new hardware, so instead do the opposite to create some discussion. Go for a 2025 release alongside the Epic Universe theme park to create the best momentum. Nintendo's smaller IPs have grew massively during the Switch era, and they should take the risk by giving all the spotlight to Metroid, Donkey Kong, and a new IP next year. Obviously, this requires those games to be massive and amazing in quality. The most likely outcome is a 3D mario game for the holidays tho.

2024 Jan-Feb Switch 2 teaser
2024 June Switch 2 Announcement during "E3" period or Summer Game Fest now. New gimmick uses a camera and a projector, links up with your mobile device.
2024 Aug-Sept release aiming to create discussion in school
Games releasing: Metroid Prime 4 (Cross-gen), Rhythm Heaven(Cross-gen), Tomodachi Life, 2 New IP, 2D Donkey Kong, 3D Mario holidays. Add Splatoon mobile and Nintendogs mobile why not.
 
Especially, if GTA VI is not planned to come to Switch 2, I expect the big games to be put in 2025. I don't think it needs heavy momentum in his first year.
Some big third party games(Assassin Creed, Cyperpunk etc.?, They can make up for the open world gap left by Zelda)
New Family game(tomodachi or mario kart 10)
Cross Gen games(Metroid, Pokemon etc.)
Updates(Zelda BOTW etc.)
Some relatively(compared to 3D Mario etc.) small games(one of the New DK game, ARMS 2, 3D Kirby with RTX? etc.)

It is not a big delay for big games to be released in 2025, if the hardware is released in the 3rd quarter anyway.
For example, 2025 March 3D Mario(Probably 5-7 Month difference with release date of Switch 2)
 
Especially, if GTA VI is not planned to come to Switch 2, I expect the big games to be put in 2025. I don't think it needs heavy momentum in his first year.
Some big third party games(Assassin Creed, Cyperpunk etc.?, They can make up for the open world gap left by Zelda)
New Family game(tomodachi or mario kart 10)
Cross Gen games(Metroid, Pokemon etc.)
Updates(Zelda BOTW etc.)
Some relatively(compared to 3D Mario etc.) small games(one of the New DK game, ARMS 2, 3D Kirby with RTX? etc.)

It is not a big delay for big games to be released in 2025, if the hardware is released in the 3rd quarter anyway.
For example, 2025 March 3D Mario(Probably 5-7 Month difference with release date of Switch 2)
I’m not sure why Nintendo would delay one of their own big releases by about 5-7months due to GTA6 potentially not showing up for the system. The launch should be anchored by something that has general appeal & potential generational selling power; something which IPs which Metroid lacks currently & 3rd parties are not at the point where people mostly wholly buy Nintendo systems for.
2023 was such a big year for Mario, which also caused a slight fatigue for the brand imo. Am I crazy to think that Nintendo shouldn't release a new Mario game next year? Everyone expects a Mario game to release with the new hardware, so instead do the opposite to create some discussion. Go for a 2025 release alongside the Epic Universe theme park to create the best momentum. Nintendo's smaller IPs have grew massively during the Switch era, and they should take the risk by giving all the spotlight to Metroid, Donkey Kong, and a new IP next year. Obviously, this requires those games to be massive and amazing in quality. The most likely outcome is a 3D mario game for the holidays tho.

2024 Jan-Feb Switch 2 teaser
2024 June Switch 2 Announcement during "E3" period or Summer Game Fest now. New gimmick uses a camera and a projector, links up with your mobile device.
2024 Aug-Sept release aiming to create discussion in school
Games releasing: Metroid Prime 4 (Cross-gen), Rhythm Heaven(Cross-gen), Tomodachi Life, 2 New IP, 2D Donkey Kong, 3D Mario holidays. Add Splatoon mobile and Nintendogs mobile why not.
I doubt they spend that much time in between teaser to reveal. The Switch was about 6months from teaser to release. I expect a similar timeframe with Redacted.
 
If they have a brand new Mario Kart and/or a Xenoblade/Advance Wars within the first year, they have my money lol. I am easy.
 
Hey happy new year everyone!!

Just my two cents, It will be very interesting how Nintendo handles this transition, I really doubt they'll just make a Switch 2, Nintendo philosophy, especially after the GC has been about bringing something New to the table with it's hardware, not just the same thing but with newer internals. Touch, motion, 3D, asynchronous screens, dock/portable and I know that the last one seems like it doesn't have much to do with how we play games and a lot of people feel the Switch is like a GBA and a GC put together (their last consoles that had a minimal differentiator from their competitors) and maybe we think that doesn't have to change but I don't think that is how Nintendo wants to do things but we will see, If whatever hardware change or innovation doesn't work for people or if they price it incorrectly things can get bad, but also Nintendo's IP are very strong and I think they'll keep their unified structure so they'll never do as bad as a Wii U.

When it comes to japanese third parties I really don't have any faith on them and don't think much will change compared to the last couple of years on Switch, which is not bad all things considered and this time it won't take years for all the small japanese companies to show up but If we take the stolen info from Nvidia and that is indeed the tech behind the Succ, the difference from the PS5 (the base for basically every third party) to the succ is not that different from the PS4 and Switch which will make the ports from games that demand the PS5 just as hard to pull off on the Succ, as it was with the PS4 to Switch ports (maybe a bit easier as scalability is more of a thing now, see XSS which is quite a bit more powerful than the rumored succ and that is already getting sub 720p games), they are not impossible as we have seen time and time again with the "impossible" ports the Switch have gotten but still requiring significant investment, investment that I don't see BN, SE or Capcom wanting to do, Western third parties are a bit different as some if them have tried harder to invest in the platform already, but if the innovation or whatever is not to their liking or if the hardware is not flying off the shelves they'll be quick to pull off support. At least there will be Call of Duty lmao.

Anyway I'll be there month 2 or 3 (here in Mexico they always try to rip you off the first few months selling the consoles at stupid prices and then it stabilizes, remember the Oled was $500 at launch, 2 days later it was $440 and after like 1 month it came down to $380, now you can find it below the $350, or maybe I can import one for a fair price).
 
Great write up, sums up well why I'm looking forward to the console so much.

Relevant to the Media Create thread, what I'm really excited about is to see how Japanese devs and publishers incorporate Switch 2 into their pipelines. It took an entire generation but the Switch is now finally at a point where it is getting most of the mid and lower size games coming out, with still some baffling exceptions not worth dwelling on. But Switch/PS5 multiplatform releases are a bit awkward, the power gap is so huge, and we're still seeing devs struggle to make good looking or well performing games on the console (DQM and Treasures, Rune Factory 5, Story of Seasons, all the musou games). A new generation should be able to alleviate those issues, and PS5/Switch 2 should be a much smoother release strategy overall.

Whether Bandai or From or Capcom start releasing their big games day and date on the platform is interesting too, and if they do the numbers will be fascinating to follow. But I can't hang my hopes on this happening for sure, so for now I'm just assuming nothing will change much in that area. But for the rest, I really can't wait to see how Switch 2 affects the market, it's going to be fun.
 
Great write up @Lelouch0612. I'd say that aside from 3D Mario and Mario Kart, maybe another Pokemon Legends is in the cards?

I'd say the big thing will be third parties though. We could be seeing games like CoD, Elden Ring, etc. on the next Nintendo system, essentially making its library overlap more with PC, PS and XB. Will be interesting to see what happens then.

(Also I'm begging you Harada, put Tekken on Switch 2)
 
Great write up @Lelouch0612. I'd say that aside from 3D Mario and Mario Kart, maybe another Pokemon Legends is in the cards?

I'd say the big thing will be third parties though. We could be seeing games like CoD, Elden Ring, etc. on the next Nintendo system, essentially making its library overlap more with PC, PS and XB. Will be interesting to see what happens then.

(Also I'm begging you Harada, put Tekken on Switch 2)


And yet, I think having a reassuring third party support would be key
DQ12 for example alongside Mario Kart would lock Japanese market up
 
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I’m not sure why Nintendo would delay one of their own big releases by about 5-7months due to GTA6 potentially not showing up for the system. The launch should be anchored by something that has general appeal & potential generational selling power; something which IPs which Metroid lacks currently & 3rd parties are not at the point where people mostly wholly buy Nintendo systems for.

I doubt they spend that much time in between teaser to reveal. The Switch was about 6months from teaser to release. I expect a similar timeframe with Redacted.
Well Feb teaser to Aug release. Isn't that about 6 months?
 
First of all, thanks for the kind words everybody.

There has been a few good points brought up by Chris on Twitter about this very topics:



Nice. My concern for the next generation is they won’t have the Wii U catalogue to lean on during quiet moments. And (hopefully) not a pandemic to boost things mid-generation

So basically, two additional risks identified:
- Lack of an easily portable library to rely on, like the WiiU was for the Switch
- Lack of a unusual mid-life boost

Second risk is indeed the one to keep in mind.

As for how Nintendo could handle the lack of new Open-Air Zelda, I think there are 3 ways they could explore:

  • A Zelda remake, in order to satiate its 3D Zelda audience in the meantine. OoT ?
  • 3rd party ports/games, we can think of Elden Ring, Cyberpunk, Red Dead Redemption II but also new entries (AC ? GTA ?)
  • Internally making more open world games. They have one studio that has all the knowledge to deliver on that front with Monolith Soft 💪
Really intrigued on how they will tackle those things. One thing is sure, they had the time to prepare for it!
 
Let me add another kind word to you Lelouche 🙂 as it was a sweet read.

As excited I am for 1st party output, 3rd party ports are what really has my interest piqued. Fascinating times ahead indeed.
 
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the most obvious point is to do what they can to secure more third party support. I don't expect them to start paying to get the same games, but given Drake's design, considerable attention was paid to get the hardware as close as possible to current gen. being late allowed them to be able to look into rumors about current gen PS5 and Xbox as well as field inquiries from devs as they worked on their PS5/Series games. the hardware is very much made with third parties in mind, more so than Switch was, I think

ball is in nintendo's court to support that with deals and incentives in some way. I think GTA6 is something Nintendo needs to move heaven and earth for, still
 
First of all, thanks for the kind words everybody.

There has been a few good points brought up by Chris on Twitter about this very topics:





So basically, two additional risks identified:
- Lack of an easily portable library to rely on, like the WiiU was for the Switch
- Lack of a unusual mid-life boost

Second risk is indeed the one to keep in mind.

As for how Nintendo could handle the lack of new Open-Air Zelda, I think there are 3 ways they could explore:

  • A Zelda remake, in order to satiate its 3D Zelda audience in the meantine. OoT ?
  • 3rd party ports/games, we can think of Elden Ring, Cyberpunk, Red Dead Redemption II but also new entries (AC ? GTA ?)
  • Internally making more open world games. They have one studio that has all the knowledge to deliver on that front with Monolith Soft 💪
Really intrigued on how they will tackle those things. One thing is sure, they had the time to prepare for it!

Honestly, I find Dring's comment pretty short sighted. What Wii U ports apart from MK8 helped the Switch's momentum? And no, BotW does not apply here. That game was released simultanous to its Wii U counterpart.

Whatever Wii U games Nintendo lacks can be easily made up for by remaking/remastering their handheld/console library. We've seen with remakes such as Link's Awakening that those can be made on a decent timescale and under reasonable costs. Certainly the fact that Nintendo seems all to happy to keep pumping them out instead of porting more Wii U titles suggests they're done with the latter's library and they've moved on.

As for the pandemic, whatever boost was given to the Switch created momentum that sped-up the sales of the system rather then inflate its numbers. The Switch would have reached the same numbers it has now but with shipments more evenly devided across the years of 2020-2023.
 
They already started with GC and Wii catalogue to boost software library and this will probably continue going ahead.
Not as easy as Wii U ports, but more varied in terms of rework (HD remaster, proper Remake, in-between remastermake..) and in terms of effort (in-house vs work for hire)

No issue there imho, especially if they will have the Switch library to rely on, with some sort of "Switch2 booster pack" upgrade program

About Covod boost I agree, but I can also see as non-problematic a 100+mil console with possible price cuts applied down the road without impacting its success and their profits

About Zelda: I can see the WW + TP HD combo happening, maybe even with RT or 4K enanchement
 
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They might do some Wii U remasters on Switch 2 even (manifesting Xenoblade Chronicles X Deftinitive Edition here...).
 
I don't think a lack of Wii U ports is an issue considering they haven't released one on Switch in 3 years now.

We're also in a strange situation where we're casting doubt on backwards compatibility but also silently ruling out Switch remasters despite the fact Sony has been doing remasters of PS4 games throughout the PS5's life. Their next release is a remaster of a 2020 game that always looks and runs really well on PS5.
 
Yeah, same thing I was thinking, the WiiU ports helped them to pad things up the first few years when third parties had jack shit for the system, they don’t need them now that most third parties will be on board with something. And there is nothing stopping Nintendo from rereleasing Switch games now at 4K or at decent framerate.
 
There is no shortage of retro game to re-release.

And they can always take note from Sony and repackage Switch games at $70 for "remasters".
 
The COVID boost may not be a problem either since this could potentially mean the final years of the system are stronger due to not being grouped up mostly at its peak. It will be a problem for hardware total but that can be counteracted by strong software, especially new IP that captures audiences.
 
This is the final year of the Switch and honestly very surprised they never followed up on Tomodachi Collection 2, considering how successful it was (yes my mother keep asking for it again and again haha)

At this point I’m wondering if they’re not keeping it for Switch 2 since it’s not going to have a new Animal Crossing for a while, but who knows, maybe it’ll be one of the announced and released 3 months later thing.
 
By the way I don't think I have ever read a single tweet from Chris Dring being positive about Nintendo.
The general sense is always "this is not good", "this is good but..." or "the outlook for the future is not as positive as the current status quo".

Only in the last year we had gems like "Directs are a stale format and Nintendo needs to change", "there is no major Switch game after TotK" and now "lack of WiiU ports and no pandemic will impact the business".
 
Honestly, I find Dring's comment pretty short sighted. What Wii U ports apart from MK8 helped the Switch's momentum? And no, BotW does not apply here. That game was released simultanous to its Wii U counterpart.

Whatever Wii U games Nintendo lacks can be easily made up for by remaking/remastering their handheld/console library. We've seen with remakes such as Link's Awakening that those can be made on a decent timescale and under reasonable costs. Certainly the fact that Nintendo seems all to happy to keep pumping them out instead of porting more Wii U titles suggests they're done with the latter's library and they've moved on.

As for the pandemic, whatever boost was given to the Switch created momentum that sped-up the sales of the system rather then inflate its numbers. The Switch would have reached the same numbers it has now but with shipments more evenly devided across the years of 2020-2023.
He mentioned the WiiU ports as a way to fill up gaps in the release schedule, not really as a way to push momentum forward.

They'll use other games, but work on these ones will be heavier than for simple WiiU ports.
By the way I don't think I have ever read a single tweet from Chris Dring being positive about Nintendo.
The general sense is always "this is not good", "this is good but..." or "the outlook for the future is not as positive as the current status quo".

Only in the last year we had gems like "Directs are a stale format and Nintendo needs to change", "there is no major Switch game after TotK" and now "lack of WiiU ports and no pandemic will impact the business".
You don't need to dig that deep, he is a massive Nintendo fan.

Besides, let's not derail the thread, I only brought up two points because they are worth discussing imo.
 
This year we've had a SNES remake (Mario RPG), GBA remakes (Advance Wars), Wii remake (Kirby), Gamecube remaster ( Metroid Prime), Gamecube rereleases (Pikmin)... No Wii U games left won't stop them from rereleasing other games. Their back catalog is one of their greatest assets. They might require a bit more work, but they can also be more attractive as a result.
 
For French speakers, there an excellent video made recently on Xenoblade Chronicle X.

It made me both very excited and convinced by the idea of Monolith Soft filling the 1st party open world gap with a new exploration focused game.

 
This year we've had a SNES remake (Mario RPG), GBA remakes (Advance Wars), Wii remake (Kirby), Gamecube remaster ( Metroid Prime), Gamecube rereleases (Pikmin)... No Wii U games left won't stop them from rereleasing other games. Their back catalog is one of their greatest assets. They might require a bit more work, but they can also be more attractive as a result.
A hundred times this.

However, I have the slight concern that the virtual console offerings will stall almost to a halt. As Chris1964 mentioned it already, remasters/remakes of games previously available on the VC sell rather mildly.

I can see the offering being completely absent on the successor and be replaced with something else. It's an extreme scenario mind you but not completely unplausible either.
 
Nintendo objectively has the best form-factor with Switch (which will become more pronounced with diminishing returns and the radical advancement of mobile tech) as it offers the ability to play on the television and on the go (while others are stuck trying to win the living room to sell more TVs or chase subscription services)--but first and foremost, they finally course-corrected their software pipeline and are constantly churning out best in franchise ever titles. They're a very intelligently run company in general but now more-so than at any other point in company history. Their IP are growing exponentially because of their endeavours both inside and outside of gaming-- such as expansion of development resources, properly nurturing and cultivating new development talent, giving their IP a distinct identity at a consistently high level of quality, theme park attractions and box-office record breaking movies.

Investor's have every reason to feel bullish regarding their future prospects.
 
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Great summary. I'm less concerned about Nintendo being able to fill the gaps in their release. They seem to understand really well the importance of keeping software release momentum. On top of that, Switch 2 should have a good combination of support from Indies + AA gens from 3rd Party developers. They won't have WiiU Ports to fill the schedule, but PS4/XBOX games Ports are a real possibility.
 
yes i am pretty bullish on the switch 2. as it grows in power the real gap to the next gen consoles may shrink, as we venture at diminishing returns. or not, we'll see.

theres something so cool about a handheld.
 
In regards to GTAVI... we never saw GTAV on the Switch despite the fact that the game was ported to numerous different platforms at numerous points in time during Switch's lifecycle. We really have to ask why that is and start to look at the realities of the industry. A day and date GTAVI on Switch 2 would represent huge things for Nintendo's AAA third party support moving forward-- a kingmaker-- a checkmate-- which is precisely why I don't expect it will happen.
 
In regards to GTAVI... we never saw GTAV on the Switch despite the fact that the game was ported to numerous different platforms at numerous points in time during Switch's lifecycle. We really have to ask why that is and start to look at the realities of the industry. A day and date GTAVI on Switch 2 would represent huge things for Nintendo's AAA third party support moving forward-- a kingmaker-- a checkmate-- which is precisely why I don't expect it will happen.
They’re not even doing a day and date PC version despite the fact that the game is absolutely fucking huge on PC. Shit I know I’m bullish but I think a day and date release on PC could’ve competed for the best selling version of the game.

Right now they’re priority is next gen consoles and then after that porting to PC, switch 2 will be an after thought if that.

The thing with GTAV on switch wasn’t just about the difficulty porting it’s more the target audience. GTA online is the big money maker and was their big focus for GTAV. I think that’s a big part of why they didn’t bother with the switch.
 
As someone who's not really into Nintendo all that much as I have only completed 10 Nintendo published games between Nintendo 64 launch through 2023. After Super Nintendo, I simply moved on for the most part. With that said, I did own a Switch for two years and completed 5 games overall, 4 published by Nintendo. In general and especially for me, if Nintendo were to do the following, I honestly don't see how the Switch 2 wouldn't be a massive success.

1. Specifications. I know rumors have it around PlayStation 4 Pro (meh) but if they can somehow hit Xbox Series S level to where you know third party publishers will port nearly every game to the Switch 2, then that would be a huge win in my opinion. Also, OLED screen. Don't go back to LCD.

2. Fully Backwards Compatible with Switch. If you own a Switch cartridge, it works and if there's upscaling and whatnot, the game will get a boost. If you own a game digitally, same thing. You get a boost and can play it. I know Nintendo loves making their fan base buy the same damn game a billion times but if you want to sell at a higher launch price, you gotta give people that aren't Nintendo hardcore fans a reason to be like, okay, I'll jump in day one or shortly thereafter.

3. Virtual Console. This is such easy fucking money for Nintendo period. I bought a Wii literally for Virtual Console games. I bought and replayed the Final Fight games, Super Mario World, Castelvania IV and a bunch of others. Shit was ridiculous. Not even asking for any upgrades or anything. Just put all those old NES, SNES, N64, etc. games there for purchase. You could have an all in one complete Nintendo console and it's portable. I am still shocked that Nintendo didn't do this with Switch. I know they have that Online thing where they add games but to be perfectly honest, despite not being a Nintendo fan, I would much rather just be able to buy those SNES games for $10 each just so I have them. I can only imagine how Nintendo fans would feel if they could get all these games on the Switch 2. I'm sure some wouldn't be happy that they would have to re-buy them but I see this as a trade off with Switch backwards compatibility.

One final note - I'm hoping they call their next hybrid console the - Super Switch Entertainment System. First, it was the SNES and now, it can be the SSES. This is just my own personal hope because I like the name. Hehehe. Price tag would be $400 which would be the most expensive launch price Nintendo has ever done but if they have specs equal or close to Xbox Series S while giving you the portability and of the course, the Nintendo brand name, I think the price tag would be just fine.

With that all said, we'll see what Nintendo ends up doing.
 
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