Nintendo FYQ1 Predictions. Update: Full Results now in the OP #1 Drblitzk #2 Extraiz #3 pierre485

[Luminoth 4545]

Nintendo's Fiscal year Q1 Earnings Report releases on Friday August 2nd, So you have just under two weeks to predict.

This thread will focus on a new releases this past quarter and other stated software as well as total global hardware and total software sold from April 1st to June 30th, 2024. Predictions close right up until Nintendo release their earnings report.

Let’s see who will have the best predictions…. Good luck to all…

New first party releases were Paper Mario: The Thousand Year Door on May 23rd and Luigi's Mansion 2 HD on June 27th.

Other predictions will be The Top three selling Switch games Mario Kart 8 Deluxe, Animal Crossing: New Horizons and Super Smash Bros. Ultimate plus The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom.

Here is Nintendo Switch's sales history for reference (millions of units).

Predict the following

(Anyone can add any bonus game of their choosing but it will not be featured in the main prediction table below )

I'll go first

[NSW HW] 1.86
[NSW SW] 33.24
[TTYD] 1.83
[LM2HD] 2.12
[MK8D] 1.29
[ACNH] 0.55
[SSBU] 0.52
[TOTK] 0.44


Prediction Table (units in millions).

Member	Hardware	Software	PM:TTYD	LM2HD	MK8D	AC:NH	SSBU	TOTK
Agazorth	1.91	30.01	1.51	2.10	1.51	0.61	0.51	0.41
Aostia82	1.91	30.07	1.52	1.89	1.15	0.51	0.40	0.37
awng782	1.75	35.00	2.46	1.58	1.23	0.43	0.45	0.34
BoktaiFan	1.95	32.50	1.65	1.80	1.30	0.51	0.42	0.38
Drblitzk	1.55	31.50	1.70	1.40	1.00	0.50	0.25	0.25
Extraiz	2.22	35.35	1.75	1.50	1.33	0.50	0.45	0.30
FernandoRocker	1.85	33.10	1.80	2.10	1.25	0.50	0.50	0.40
fiendcode	2.34	32.10	1.98	2.10	1.23	0.56	0.23	0.34
Josh5890	1.70	36.21	2.10	2.30	1.10	0.49	0.55	0.29
jupyter55	1.85	34.30	1.87	1.93	1.34	0.60	0.45	0.55
Kenka	1.72	28.82	1.64	1.81	1.09	0.54	0.38	0.44
kmds	2.02	35.65	1.80	2.53	1.45	0.55	0.35	0.47
Luminoth 4545	1.86	33.24	1.83	2.12	1.29	0.55	0.52	0.44
Malden	2.05	31.55	1.70	1.40	1.23	0.60	0.50	0.45
Maluigi	1.87	33.50	1.80	1.75	1.20	0.45	0.36	0.34
MarcoP90	2.19	32.00	2.20	1.21	1.20	0.44	0.57	0.31
MilesTailsPrower	1.81	34.22	2.11	1.75	1.25	0.51	0.47	0.35
Nocturnal	1.90	39.20	1.44	1.22	1.25	0.72	0.62	0.36
Pickachupwnage	1.90	34.50	2.03	1.60	1.35	0.60	0.50	0.30
pierre485	1.80	32.00	1.80	1.60	1.20	0.50	0.45	0.30
Quequaq	2.14	36.52	2.23	3.33	1.50	0.60	0.40	0.50
RavensShade	1.99	32.90	1.99	2.10	1.43	0.53	0.55	0.39
Reginliev	1.78	36.26	1.83	1.54	1.20	0.58	0.41	0.39
Rolling Antony	1.72	31.25	1.99	1.85	1.54	0.47	0.48	0.39
sebbbbe	2.01	33.33	2.35	1.21	1.28	0.54	0.53	0.28
SirArthur	2.10	31.50	2.00	2.00	1.25	0.49	0.28	0.32
Tbone5189	1.66	33.22	1.77	1.23	1.11	0.69	0.51	0.30
Ventinor	1.99	33.33	1.50	1.50	1.25	0.75	0.30	0.55
War Inquisitor	1.73	31.05	1.40	1.35	1.30	0.34	0.50	042
Yomi	2.00	30.00	2.05	2.30	1.30	0.60	0.50	0.35
Ystad	2.58	31.93	1.69	1.69	1.50	0.55	0.44	0.50
Z-Z0	1.98	36.76	1.91	1.66	1.36	0.66	0.56	0.33

Scoring method: You recieve 5pts for being the most accurate, 4pts for second, 3pts for third, 2pts for fourth and 1pt for fifth.
if multiple members are the same distance from the correct number (either over or under) then they all get the points.

Point scorers

NSW Hardware - 2.10

5pts - SirArthur - 2.10
4pts - Quequaq - 2.14
3pts - Malden - 2.05
2pts - kmds - 2.02
1pt - Sebbbbe - 2.01, MarcoP90 - 2.19

NSW Software - 30.64

5pts - War Inquisitor - 31.05
4pts - Aostia82 - 30.07
3pts - Rolling Antony - 31.25
2pts - Agazorth - 30.01
1pt - Yomi - 30.00

Paper Mario: The Thousand Year Door - 1.76

5pts - Extraiz - 1.75, Tbone5189 - 1.77
4pts - FernandoRocker, kmds, Maluigi, pierre485 - 1.80
3pts - Drblitzk, Malden - 1.70
2pts - Luminoth 4545, Reginliev - 1.83, Ystad - 1.69
1pt - jupyter55 - 1.87

Luigi's Mansion 2 HD - 1.19

5pts - MarcoP90, Sebbbbe - 1.21
4pts - Nocturnal - 1.22
3pts - Tbone5189 - 1.23
2pts - War Inquisitor - 1.35
1pt - Drblitzk, Malden - 1.40

Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 0.93

5pts - Drblitzk - 1.00
4pts - Kenka - 1.09
3pts - Josh5890 - 1.10
2pts - Tbone5189 - 1.11
1pt - Aostia82 - 1.15

Animal Crossing: New Horizons - 0.49

5 pts - Josh5890, SirArthur - 0.49
4pts - Drblitzk, Extraiz, FernandoRocker, pierre485 - 0.50
3pts - Aostia82, BoktaiFan, MilesTailsPrower - 0.51, Rolling Antony - 0.47
2pts - Maluigi - 0.45, RavensShade - 0.53
1pt - MarcoP90 - 0.44, Kenka, Sebbe - 0.54

Super Smash Bros. Ultimate - 0.44

5pts - Ystad - 0.44
4pts - awng782, Extraiz, jupyter55, pierre485 - 0.45
3pts - BoktaiFan - 0.42
2pts - Reginliev - 0.41, MilesTailsPrower - 0.47
1pt - Aostia82, Quequaq - 0.40, Rolling Antony - 0.48

Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom - 0.19

5pts - Drblitzk - 0.25
4 pts - Sebbbbe - 0.28
3pts - Josh5890 - 0.29
2pts - Extraiz, Pikachupwnage, pierre485, Tbone5189 - 0.30
1pt - MarcoP90 - 0.31

Standings

If points are tied then the person with more placements ranks higher, if points and number of placements are the same then it's a tie.

Pos	Member	Total	Hardware	Software	PM:TTYD	LM2HD	MK8D	AC:NH	SSBU	TOTK
1	Drblitzk	18pts	-	-	3pts	1pt	5pts	4pts	-	5pts
2	Extraiz	15pts	-	-	5pts	-	-	4pts	4pts	2pts
3	pierre485	14pts	-	-	4pts	-	-	4pts	4pts	2pts
4	Tbone5189	12pts	-	-	5pts	3pts	2pts	-	-	2pts
5	Sebbe	11pts	1pt	-	-	5pts	-	1pt	-	4pts
6	Josh5890	11pts	-	-	-	-	3pts	5pts	-	3pts
7	SirArthur	10pts	5pts	-	-	-	-	5pts	-	-
8	Aostia82	8pts	-	4pts	-	-	1pt	3pts	1pt	-
8	MarcoP90	8pts	1pt	-	-	5pts	-	1pt	-	1pt
10	FernandoRocker	8pts	-	-	4pts	-	-	4pts	-	-
11	Malden	7pts	3pts	-	3pts	1pt	-	-	-	-
11	Rolling Antony	7pts	-	3pts	-	-	-	3pts	1pt	-
13	War Inquistor	7pts	-	5pts	-	2pts	-	-	-	-
13	Ystad	7pts	-	-	2pts	-	-	-	5pts	-
15	BoktaiFan	6pts	-	-	-	-	-	3pts	3pts	-
15	kmds	6pts	2pts	-	4pts	-	-	-	-	-
15	Maluigi	6pts	-	-	4pts	-	-	2pts	-	-
18	jupyter55	5pts	-	-	1pt	-	-	-	4pts	-
18	Kenka	5pts	-	-	-	-	4pts	1pt	-	-
18	MilesTailsPrower	5pts	-	-	-	-	-	3pts	2pts	-
18	Quequaq	5ps	4pts	-	-	-	-	-	1pt	-
22	Reginliev	4pts	-	-	2pts	-	-	2pts	-	-
23	awng782	4pts	-	-	-	-	-	-	4pts	-
23	Nocturnal	4pts	-	-	-	4pts	-	-	-	-
25	Agazorth	2pts	-	2pts	-	-	-	-	-	-
25	Luminoth4545	2pts	-	-	2pts	-	-	-	-	-
25	Pikachupwnage	2pts	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	2pts
25	RavensShade	2pts	-	-	-	-	-	2pts	-	-
29	Yomi	1pt	-	1pt	-	-	-	-	-	-
30	fiendcode	0pt	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
30	Ventinor	0pt	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
30	Z-Z0	0pt	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Congratulations to Drblitzk who won for the second time in a row and made an incredible five placements and also well done to Extraiz and to pierre485 for taking second and third place, Tbone5189 also did very well. If you didn't score any points then may you have better luck next time and thanks to everyone who contributed.

 

[Kmds]

[NSW HW] 2.02
[NSW SW] 35.65
[TTYD] 1.80
[LM2HD] 2.53
[MK8D] 1.45
[ACNH] 0.55
[SSBU] 0.35
[TOTK] 0.47

 

[fiendcode]

[NSW HW] 2.34
[NSW SW] 32.10
[TTYD] 1.98
[LM2HD] 2.10
[MK8D] 1.23
[ACNH] 0.56
[SSBU] 0.23
[TOTK] 0.34

 

[SirArthur]

[NSW HW] 2.10
[NSW SW] 31.50
[TTYD] 2.00
[LM2HD] 2.00
[MK8D] 1.25
[ACNH] 0.49
[SSBU] 0.28
[TOTK] 0.32

 

[Extraiz]

[NSW HW] 2.22
[NSW SW] 35.35
[TTYD] 1.75
[LM2HD] 1.50
[MK8D] 1.33
[ACNH] 0.50
[SSBU] 0.45
[TOTK] 0.30

 

[Torpoleon]

LM2 HD only has a few days for that quarter, whereas TTYD HD has over a month. Is it really reasonable to expect that LM2 HD outsells it? More things going in TTYD's favor is that more work was done on it than LM2 HD and also the original LM 2 was was more readily available during its time.

 

[BTB123]

LM2 HD only has a few days for that quarter, whereas TTYD HD has over a month. Is it really reasonable to expect that LM2 HD outsells it? More things going in TTYD's favor is that more work was done on it than LM2 HD and also the original LM 2 was was more readily available during its time.

TTYD also has very good legs. Even if it's launch was smaller than LM2HD, it would still be likely higher for the quarter.

 

[Malden]

[NSW HW] 2.05M
[NSW SW] 31.55M
[TTYD] 1.7M
[LM2HD] 1.4M
[MK8D] 1.23M
[ACNH] 0.60M
[SSBU] 0.50M
[TOTK] 0.45M

*DJ Khaled voice: "Another one!"*

MK8D - 63.20M (+1.23M)
ACNH - 45.96M (+.60M)
SSBU - 34.72M (+.50M)
BotW - 32.20M (+.35M)
SMO - 28.60M (+.64M)
PSw/Sh - 26.40 (+.13M)
PS/V - 25.70M (+.78M)
TotK - 21.06M (+.45M)
SMP - 21.00M (+.34M)
NSMBUD - 18.00M (+.55M)

Thinking TotK finally passes SMP and by calendar year end the Pokemons will trade places.

Last minute snipe edit to add SMW at 1.25M

 

[Kenka]

[NSW HW] 1.72
[NSW SW] 28.82
[TTYD] 1.64
[LM2HD] 1.81
[MK8D] 1.09
[ACNH] 0.54
[SSBU] 0.38
[TOTK] 0.44

 

[Brazilian77]

[NSW HW] 1.13

Is this a mistake? I thought Japan alone sold more than half of that. Hard to believe shipments would be that low

 

[awng782]

[NSW HW] 1.75
[NSW SW] 35.00
[TTYD] 2.10
[LM2HD] 1.58
[MK8D] 1.23
[ACNH] 0.43
[SSBU] 0.45
[TOTK] 0.34

 

[Luminoth 4545]

I'll post mine here again to confirm i haven't change them in the OP.

[NSW HW] 1.86
[NSW SW] 33.24
[TTYD] 1.83
[LM2HD] 2.12
[MK8D] 1.29
[ACNH] 0.55
[SSBU] 0.52
[TOTK] 0.44

 

[Kenka]

Is this a mistake? I thought Japan alone sold more than half of that. Hard to believe shipments would be that low

Taking a risk here. I imagine that Nintendo would like to start clearing channels now in anticipation of the release of the successor. But I admit that I put the bar frankly low.

 

[Brazilian77]

Taking a risk here. I imagine that Nintendo would like to start clearing channels now in anticipation of the release of the successor. But I admit that I put the bar frankly low.

Ah sure. I just thought you made a mistake hence I wrote. It is possible, but with their 13.5M target, it seemed like a mistake.

By the way, you can wait close to the end and update your number to be the lowest (but likely higher than what you predicted) as that increases the likelihood that you win if your bet proves true. That way, your risk of undershooting too much is diminished

 

[BTB123]

Taking a risk here. I imagine that Nintendo would like to start clearing channels now in anticipation of the release of the successor. But I admit that I put the bar frankly low.

They want to manufacture at least another 13.5M, obviously much more with the following FY. So to me it seems like it doesn't make sense to clear channels already.

 

[MilesTailsPrower]

NSW HW] 1.81
[NSW SW] 34.22
[TTYD] 2.11
[LM2HD] 1.75
[MK8D] 1.25
[ACNH] 0.51
[SSBU] 0.47
[TOTK] 0.35

 

[Z-Z0]

[NSW HW] 1.98
[NSW SW] 36.76
[TTYD] 1.91
[LM2HD] 1.66
[MK8D] 1.36
[ACNH] 0.66
[SSBU] 0.56
[TOTK] 0.33

 

[Aostia82]

[NSW HW] 1.92
[NSW SW] 30.07
[TTYD] 1.74
[LM2HD] 1.89
[MK8D] 1.25
[ACNH] 0.54
[SSBU] 0.38
[TOTK] 0.36

 

[War Inquisitor]

[NSW HW] 1.73
[NSW SW] 31.05
[TTYD] 1.40
[LM2HD] 1.35
[MK8D] 1.30
[ACNH] 0.34
[SSBU] 0.50
[TOTK] 0.42

 

[SRB2kaiZ]

would we get updates of other games like kirby and the forgotten land and splatoon 3

 

[Drblitzk]

would we get updates of other games like kirby and the forgotten land and splatoon 3

Unlikely, only games that sell more than a million during the quarter/fiscal year or are in the top 10 best sellers lifetime are for sure getting an update, Nintendo sometimes highlights other games when making comparisons but those are rare.

 

[Ystad]

[NSW HW] 2.58
[NSW SW] 31.93
[TTYD] 1.69
[LM2HD] 1.69
[MK8D] 1.50
[ACNH] 0.55
[SSBU] 0.44
[TOTK] 0.50

 

[Maluigi]

[NSW HW] 1.87
[NSW SW] 33.50
[TTYD] 1.80
[LM2HD] 1.75
[MK8D] 1.20
[ACNH] 0.45
[SSBU] 0.36
[TOTK] 0.34

 

[Reginleiv]

[NSW HW] 1.78
[NSW SW] 36.26
[TTYD] 1.83
[LM2HD] 1.54
[MK8D] 1.20
[ACNH] 0.58
[SSBU] 0.41
[TOTK] 0.39

 

[Yomi]

[NSW HW] 2.00
[NSW SW] 30.0
[TTYD] 2.05
[LM2HD] 2.3
[MK8D] 1.3
[ACNH] 0.6
[SSBU] 0.5
[TOTK] 0.35

 

[Agazorth]

[NSW HW] 1.91
[NSW SW] 30.01
[TTYD] 1.51
[LM2HD] 2.1
[MK8D] 1.51
[ACNH] 0.61
[SSBU] 0.51
[TOTK] 0.41

 

[BoktaiFan]

[NSW HW] 1.95
[NSW SW] 32.5
[TTYD] 1.65
[LM2HD] 1.8
[MK8D] 1.3
[ACNH] 0.51
[SSBU] 0.42
[TOTK] 0.38

 

[Quequaq]

[NSW HW] 2.14
[NSW SW] 36.52
[TTYD] 2.23
[LM2HD] 3.33
[MK8D] 1.5
[ACNH] 0.6
[SSBU] 0.4
[TOTK] 0.5

 

[FernandoRocker]

[NSW HW] 1.85
[NSW SW] 33.10
[TTYD] 1.80
[LM2HD] 2.10
[MK8D] 1.25
[ACNH] 0.50
[SSBU] 0.50
[TOTK] 0.40

 

[Mekanos]

I would be kinda surprised if TTYD comes under 2 million, but if it does you can bet there will be a lot of arguments over it

 

[Maronic03]

The first time we got an official number for TOK, it was 2.82 millions units sold, but with one more month of tracking VS TTYD.

We'll see how TTYD performed tomorrow, I'm expecting something just under 2 millions.

 

[sebbbbe]

[NSW HW] 2.01
[NSW SW] 33.33
[TTYD] 2.35
[LM2HD] 1.21
[MK8D] 1.28
[ACNH] 0.54
[SSBU] 0.53
[BotW] 0.21
[SMO] 0.26
[PokSwSh] 0.09
[PokScVi] 0.50
[SMP] 0.29
[TOTK] 0.28
[NSMBU] 0.20
[SMBW] 1.05

 

[Nocturnal]

[NSW HW] 1.90
[NSW SW] 39.2
[TTYD] 1.44
[LM2HD] 1.22
[MK8D] 1.25
[ACNH] 0.72
[SSBU] 0.62
[TOTK] 0.36

 

[Josh5890]

[NSW HW] 1.70
[NSW SW] 36.21
[TTYD] 2.1
[LM2HD] 2.3
[MK8D] 1.1
[ACNH] 0.49
[SSBU] 0.55
[TOTK] 0.29

 

[pierre485]

[NSW HW] 1.80
[NSW SW] 32.00
[TTYD] 1.80
[LM2HD] 1.60
[MK8D] 1.20
[ACNH] 0.50
[SSBU] 0.45
[TOTK] 0.30

 

[Aostia82]

So, are the results out tomorrow?

 

[Malden]

So, are the results out tomorrow?

Yes

 

[Lelouch0612]

Predictions are all over the place it looks like. Tomorrow should be fun

 

[FernandoRocker]

Yes

But it is already tomorrow in Japan.

 

[MarcoP90]

[NSW HW] 2.19
[NSW SW] 32.00
[TTYD] 2.20
[LM2HD] 1.21
[MK8D] 1.20
[ACNH] 0.44
[SSBU] 0.57
[TOTK] 0.31

 

[Ventinor]

[NSW HW] 1.99
[NSW SW] 33.33
[TTYD] 1.50
[LM2HD] 1.50
[MK8D] 1.25
[ACNH] 0.75
[SSBU] 0.30
[TOTK] 0.55

 

[Kenka]

I updated my prediction a few days ago after considering Brazilian77's feedback

 

[jupyter55]

[NSW HW] 1.85
[NSW SW] 34.30
[TTYD] 1.87
[LM2HD] 1.93
[MK8D] 1.34
[ACNH] 0.60
[SSBU] 0.45
[TOTK] 0.55

 

[Pikachupwnage]

No Mario Wonder as a Main prediction?

[NSW HW] 1.90
[NSW SW] 34.50
[TTYD] 2.03
[LM2HD] 1.60
[MK8D] 1.35
[ACNH] 0.60
[SSBU] 0.50
[TOTK] 0.30

Bonus

[SMBW] 1.20

 

[RavensShade]

[NSW HW] 1.99
[NSW SW] 32.9
[TTYD] 1.99
[LM2HD] 2.10
[MK8D] 1.43
[ACNH] 0.53
[SSBU] 0.55
[TOTK] 0.39

 

[Tbone5189]

[NSW HW] 1.66
[NSW SW] 33.22
[TTYD] 1.77
[LM2HD] 1.23
[MK8D] 1.11
[ACNH] 0.69
[SSBU] 0.51
[TOTK] 0.30

 

[Drblitzk]

[NSW HW] 1.55
[NSW SW] 31.50
[TTYD] 1.70
[LM2HD] 1.40
[MK8D] 1.00
[ACNH] 0.50
[SSBU] 0.50
[TOTK] 0.25

TotK has burned me twice in the past so I’m going low now lmao.

 

[Rolling Antony]

[NSW HW] 1.72
[NSW SW] 31.25
[TTYD] 1.99
[LM2HD] 1.85
[MK8D] 1.54
[ACNH] 0.47
[SSBU] 0.48
[TOTK] 0.39

Last time I wasn't very accurate, let's see if I can do better!

 

[theprodigy]

No Mario Wonder as a Main prediction?

There's a chance we get nothing on that front so that wouldn't be a good prediction.

 

[Luminoth 4545]

No Mario Wonder as a Main prediction?

[NSW HW] 1.90
[NSW SW] 34.50
[TTYD] 2.03
[LM2HD] 1.60
[MK8D] 1.35
[ACNH] 0.60
[SSBU] 0.50
[TOTK] 0.30

Bonus

[SMBW] 1.20

Might not hit 1 million for the quarter and It's not in the Top 10 so probably won't get a sales update.