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Nintendo FY3/2024 Q3 Earnings Release, Switch Hardware Q3: 6.9M units (-16.16% YoY), 139.36M units LTD. Switch has outsold DS in Japan: 33.34M units

My only caveat here would be that Sony had to cut PS4 production because of COVID supply chain issues. It was very much a Sophie’s Choice situation. I’m not sure they would’ve ramped down production the way that they did if not for the pandemic.
Especially given that Sony backtracked, and ramped PS4 production back up in 2022.
 
The graph in itself is alright. In her comment, Celine was specifically referring to two distinct periods (2017-2023 for Nintendo Switch and 1994-2023 for PlayStation). Obviously a 1994 dollar is not equal to a 2017 dollar.

But I should have shut my mouth instead and not have committed this excess in pedantry.
You are right.
The question and the answer were for amusement purpose only.
 
No they don't. The last few years have showed that even if the price goes up people continue to buy (video game consoles, streaming services, phones,...).

I think that those expecting the current Switch models to stay on the shelves alongside the new one are going to be disappointed. I'm fully expecting them to reduce the shipments to almost nothing once the next one is out.
Similar to what Sony did with the PS4/5, keeping the price at 300$ with no stock despite the PS5 being 500$ and out of stock for years.

Even if ninty slow down switch 1 production. There is 0 reason to believe nintu going to do it even worse than 3ds which add another 9-10m sold after switch release.

Ninty will minimum ensure another 15m switch to be sold to region like SEA, South Asia or Latam to get those sales that Switch 2 wont reach due to price or stocks.

Ninty totally killing Switch 1 production means total lost of mindshares in region that dont get Switch 2 stocks.

Where?
I've always only seen 155M as the last official figure reported by Sony for PS2.

The number keep changing like how Vita went from below wii u to now outselling wii u lol.
 
Switch lite seems to have gained a lot from the bundles Wonder if Nintendo will continue the bundles or increase the variants to keep lite going.

Keep as a Budget variant when Switch 2 drops?
 
With results like these, 150 million is a given. 160 million is likely.

The real question becomes: how likely is 170 million? I think it's definitely on the table at this point.

Sticking to my prediction of 160/165 million WW when all is said and done.

Edit: LOL at people expecting Nintendo to copy Sony's strategy with the PS4's twilight years. Such a wilfully blind and obtuse take.
 
Switch lite seems to have gained a lot from the bundles Wonder if Nintendo will continue the bundles or increase the variants to keep lite going.

Keep as a Budget variant when Switch 2 drops?

I joke that lite is going to get cleared up asap so nintendo can do Lite Oled for 250 bucks while retiring V1, V2 and lite lol.
 
Ninty totally killing Switch 1 production means total lost of mindshares in region that dont get Switch 2 stocks.
This is hardly a big deal, Nintendo will maintain strong mindshare as long as existing players continue to play games in their ecosystem. Switch hardware sales won't matter at all once its successor arrives.
 
How close is the Switch from outselling the PS2 in the US? If I remember correctly DS is #1 in the US, but last time Switch was getting super close to passing PS2.
 
Ah ah ah kudos to the dozen of us betting years ago +160M Switchesss. This thing could even end up close to 170/180M, depending how Nintendo handle it after the succ.
 
It’s very likely that the Switch becomes the bestselling console WW at this point. Even the 3DS sold a bunch AFTER the Switch released, and Switch 2 isn’t releasing for a bunch more months still, and will be more expensive so they’ll have to keep the Switch around for a while until they can get a cheaper entry point.

Manufacturers have really moved away from the long tail hardware model, and cut the old off very quickly now which tells you it isn't profitable.

So I mean you are right about more months but I would 100% expect Switch to be ethered extremely quickly on introduction of successor, not kept around as some low price option. besides i expect switch 2 at 399 which is totally fine given inflation, consumer expectations for higher price on new consoles etc. in fact switch 2 would be likely to be selling at a big premium on the secondary market for months to years if ps5 was any indication depending on supply.
 
50/50 on Switch becoming the Bestselling Console Ever. It depends on how they handle the transition period for me.

We will see.
 
Nintendo expansion to Thailand with really good sales for Lite is easily one of the best example there.

Switch also get huge boost in Indonesia as the price is really reasonable for many medium class family to buy one now. Also the abundant of switch games being cheaper also helped a lot.
Lite is very popular here in Brazil too. It's the first home console to be sold under R$ 1,000.00 since PS3 days.
For comparison PS5 is R$ 3,500.00
 
Lite is very popular here in Brazil too. It's the first home console to be sold under R$ 1,000.00 since PS3 days.
For comparison PS5 is R$ 3,500.00

Shows how important is having budget priced Switch there.

I think if Nintendo can get a budget Switch version with all upgrade from Switch OLED minus the oled at around 200 bucks. It will sell really well everywhere on developing countries there.
 
This is hardly a big deal, Nintendo will maintain strong mindshare as long as existing players continue to play games in their ecosystem. Switch hardware sales won't matter at all once its successor arrives.
I wouldn't say practically abandoning South East Asia is "hardly a big deal" - especially given that even if Switch 2 is somehow a reasonable price for the region, Nintendo aren't going to send much stock there when there are the more mature and ravenous markets of Japan, Europe and North America to serve, at least during the first couple of years where the thing is probably going to be out of stock everywhere.

It seems wise to keep the Switch around at a reasonable price to serve demand in poorer and lower priority regions of the world to keep momentum going, at least until either a budget Switch 2 can launch (aka Switch 2 Lite), and/or the Switch 2 leaves its "instant sell-out" phase once the early adopter audiences of JP/NA/EU have been served.
 
I wouldn't say practically abandoning South East Asia is "hardly a big deal" - especially given that even if Switch 2 is somehow a reasonable price for the region, Nintendo aren't going to send much stock there when there are the more mature and ravenous markets of Japan, Europe and North America to serve, at least during the first couple of years where the thing is probably going to be out of stock everywhere.

It seems wise to keep the Switch around at a reasonable price to serve demand in poorer and lower priority regions of the world to keep momentum going, at least until either a budget Switch 2 can launch (aka Switch 2 Lite), and/or the Switch 2 leaves its "instant sell-out" phase once the early adopter audiences of JP/NA/EU have been served.

Yup. Losing those hard build mindshares on SEA, South Asia, Latam, Middle East, East Europe is not recipe for success. Nintendo should ensure that they are able to still have affordable console on those region to satisfy the market for like 1 to 2 years till Switch 2 stock is good and price is normalized for those markets.

By that point. Ninty will get sales, maintain mindshares and also build themselves new region to sell their Switch 2.
 
Lite is very popular here in Brazil too. It's the first home console to be sold under R$ 1,000.00 since PS3 days.
For comparison PS5 is R$ 3,500.00

Even OLED is found at R$ 1,700.00-1,800.00 which is a very good price all 'brazilian' things considered
 
Yup. Losing those hard build mindshares on SEA, South Asia, Latam, Middle East, East Europe is not recipe for success. Nintendo should ensure that they are able to still have affordable console on those region to satisfy the market for like 1 to 2 years till Switch 2 stock is good and price is normalized for those markets.

By that point. Ninty will get sales, maintain mindshares and also build themselves new region to sell their Switch 2.
Also like, its just a no-brainer to keep selling in these regions and continue building up your audiences - the costs of your software are already amortised long before, and the developing world has such a huge potential market that can offset the costs of keeping factories making Switches rather than Switch 2's; after you sell the consoles to people, the rest is just pure profit for Nintendo; and primes people in these regions to consume more Nintendo media - whether that be merchandise, Switch 2 and its software, or their various multimedia avenues (in SEA in particular, Nintendo is probably going to have a small Super Nintendo World set of attractions at Universal Singapore at some point.).
 
My only caveat here would be that Sony had to cut PS4 production because of COVID supply chain issues. It was very much a Sophie’s Choice situation. I’m not sure they would’ve ramped down production the way that they did if not for the pandemic.
The production lines for PS4 were already established before COVID. Nintendo shipping almost 30 millions Switch in that fiscal year show that Sony could have kept some PS4 on the shelves had they wanted.
Even if ninty slow down switch 1 production. There is 0 reason to believe nintu going to do it even worse than 3ds which add another 9-10m sold after switch release.

Ninty will minimum ensure another 15m switch to be sold to region like SEA, South Asia or Latam to get those sales that Switch 2 wont reach due to price or stocks.

Ninty totally killing Switch 1 production means total lost of mindshares in region that dont get Switch 2 stocks.



The number keep changing like how Vita went from below wii u to now outselling wii u lol.
3DS (i.e. 2DS XL) was a different product with its own library at a vastly inferior price point (99$ or 129$, I don't remember) vs the Switch (300$).
Going by the assumption that the new system will be similar to the Switch (with backward compatibility) there is absolutely no reason to keep selling the Switch at 300$ (OLED MSRP is 350$) with the new one being around 400$.
They won't do a price cut, they hated having to do that with the 3ds, even when the WiiU was falling they didn't and choose to bundle games instead, and the current leading Switch model is more expensive that the Switch was seven years ago with only a better screen to show for it.

Switch Lite could stick around for a while, but it's not a big seller anyway.
 
They won't do a price cut, they hated having to do that with the 3ds, even when the WiiU was falling they didn't and choose to bundle games instead, and the current leading Switch model is more expensive that the Switch was seven years ago with only a better screen to show for it.
  1. Bundling games permanently with a console is literally just a price cut in disguise.
  2. Nintendo has often released cheaper budget versions of consoles late in life - as you mention the New 2DS XL, which had an introductory price of $129 compared to the standard price of the 3DS at the time of seemingly around $169 (it's kinda hard to actually find concrete data on how much the standard New 3DS cost in USD when not bundled); but the Wii and GBA also had similar budget models.
  3. The Wii and DS also both had multiple significant price cuts during their lifespan - including a late DSi price cut in 2012 from $149 to $99. This was despite these being their most successful console and handhelds respectively at this time.
  4. Nintendo will want a cheaper console of some kind to cater to the more budget conscious audience - especially if they're going to be launching their most expensive portable console ever; and the Switch 2 Lite isn't going to come out for at least a year or two after the Switch 2. Ergo, they're going to keep at least one model of Switch around until the Lite launches, and if it's one of the higher priced models they may see fit to either do a price cut or bundling to better differentiate the two offerings or appeal to developing markets.
  5. Once Switch 2 Lite is out, then they can move to shutter all Switch 1 production - it's no coincidence that 3DS production started to wind down in 2019/20 after Switch Lite launched.
 
Question: Does anybody know what calendar year was peak year of 3DS and with which numbers?
 
Question: Does anybody know what calendar year was peak year of 3DS and with which numbers?
CY 2011, with 15.03 mi.

 
CY 2011, with 15.03 mi.


Thx. So this means that Switch sold still better in 2023 than 3DS did in its peak year. Crazy
 
Switch has been underestimated its entire lifespan and continues to be.

“I wonder if it will reach 150m” LMAO.
 
Switch has been underestimated its entire lifespan and continues to be.

“I wonder if it will reach 150m” LMAO.
To be frank, a lot of its performance from now on will depend on how and when the transition with the successor will occur.
 
I think Nintendo will focus all their production lines on making Switch 2, continuing to make Switch 1 makes no sense when Nintendo wants to get as many Switch 2 in as many hands as possible as quickly as they can.
 
Thanks to @pierre485





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To be frank, a lot of its performance from now on will depend on how and when the transition with the successor will occur.

Even if Switch 2 did launch tomorrow, Switch would reach 150 million. The only way for Switch not reaching 150 million is if Nintendo stops manufacturing them the moment Switch 2 launches (like Sony did with the PS4-PS5 transition). But after selling 15 million this FY it’s almost impossible for Nintendo to stop manufacturing Switch. So 150 million is the absolute bottom for LTD Switch HW numbers.
 
To be frank, a lot of its performance from now on will depend on how and when the transition with the successor will occur.
There is no ‘depending’ at this point for 150m. There’s another three quarters before the succ, it will be ~145m when it launches. You need a meteorite to destroy Shenzen to not get to 150m now.

As for beyond that, the 3DS, a console limping along at the end, with no 20 million selling hits (Wonder will sell 20m) released in its final year, added over 15% to its total after the Switch was out. That would send the Switch well beyond PS2/DS.
 
There is no ‘depending’ at this point for 150m. There’s another three quarters before the succ, it will be ~145m when it launches. You need a meteorite to destroy Shenzen to not get to 150m now.

As for beyond that, the 3DS, a console limping along at the end, with no 20 million selling hits (Wonder will sell 20m) released in its final year, added over 15% to its total after the Switch was out. That would send the Switch well beyond PS2/DS.
This is exactly correct. It would have to be something either truly catastrophic to happen, or an immediate production halt(and I do mean immediate) for the switch to not become the world's best selling console of all time.

Is it possible? Of course, anything is possible. The one thing I can say with 100% certainty, is that the switch will absolutely hit 150million.

I am only 95% sure that it will become the best selling of all-time. I'll allow 5% for the unforseen.
 
I’m honestly surprised at ToTK’s very poor legs, especially in the third quarter
 
  1. Bundling games permanently with a console is literally just a price cut in disguise.
It's not the same, you're not devaluing your product and giving away a first party game doesn't cost you anything in a sense.
  1. Nintendo has often released cheaper budget versions of consoles late in life - as you mention the New 2DS XL, which had an introductory price of $129 compared to the standard price of the 3DS at the time of seemingly around $169 (it's kinda hard to actually find concrete data on how much the standard New 3DS cost in USD when not bundled); but the Wii and GBA also had similar budget models.
  2. The Wii and DS also both had multiple significant price cuts during their lifespan - including a late DSi price cut in 2012 from $149 to $99. This was despite these being their most successful console and handhelds respectively at this time.
The "they did it before" argument doesn't hold much value because the market evolve. The PS3 had an ultra slim model but the PS4 didn't. Apple used to have a cheaper mini model for their iPhone until they didn't. Numerous phone manufacturers switched from budget to mid-range and flagship models because that's where the money is.
  1. Nintendo will want a cheaper console of some kind to cater to the more budget conscious audience - especially if they're going to be launching their most expensive portable console ever; and the Switch 2 Lite isn't going to come out for at least a year or two after the Switch 2. Ergo, they're going to keep at least one model of Switch around until the Lite launches, and if it's one of the higher priced models they may see fit to either do a price cut or bundling to better differentiate the two offerings or appeal to developing markets.
  2. Once Switch 2 Lite is out, then they can move to shutter all Switch 1 production - it's no coincidence that 3DS production started to wind down in 2019/20 after Switch Lite launched.
From a business point of view catering to the lower spenders doesn't make much sense. Fact is, people that can spend 300$ for a console can spend 400$ if that's the only choice offered to them. Sony is selling 500/550$ PS5 at the same pace than 400$ PS4. I really don't adhere to the mindset that Nintendo has to keep a cheaper model alongside Switch 2.
Except the Lite, since it's on a different segment than the v2/OLED.
 
Apple used to have a cheaper mini model for their iPhone until they didn't.
You can currently buy an iPhone SE 3 directly from Apple which is essentially a 2021 iPhone 13 in a 2017 iPhone 8 body.

The SE 2, a 2019 iPhone 11, was only discontinued in 2022.

Apple have had a budget older model available at all times for the last decade.

The 12 and 13 minis, which were an option on current model iPhones when they were available, were a bit cheaper but not a budget line or old model option, and were discontinued because they didn't sell well, not because Apple moved away from budget options.

To try and equate the discontinuation of the minis to moving away from selling older hardware as budget options is just false. Their equivalent would actually be the Switch 2 launching with a Switch 2 mini option.
 
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I hope Nintendo to low prices after annoucing a Switch successor / upgrade / expensive model.

Or just do something like 2DS there. Give us new budget model for Switch 1.


Like Switch LCD but with all Switch OLED bell and whistle. For 200 bucks. Boom should be good to sell for several years on developing countries there.
 
You can currently buy an iPhone SE 3 directly from Apple which is essentially a 2021 iPhone 13 in a 2017 iPhone 8 body.

The SE 2, a 2019 iPhone 11, was only discontinued in 2022.

Apple have had a budget older model available at all times for the last decade.

The 12 and 13 minis, which were an option on current model iPhones when they were available, were a bit cheaper but not a budget line or old model option, and were discontinued because they didn't sell well, not because Apple moved away from budget options.

To try and equate the discontinuation of the minis to moving away from selling older hardware as budget options is just false. Their equivalent would actually be the Switch 2 launching with a Switch 2 mini option.
There are no realities in which a $600 CND 3 years old tech iphone is a « budget option ». It’s not even a budget iphone since you can easily get a 13pro for cheaper with carriers.

A budget phone is a $2-300 phone (Samsung’s A15 is $270 for example) tops.
 
There are no realities in which a $600 CND 3 years old tech iphone is a « budget option ». It’s not even a budget iphone since you can easily get a 13pro for cheaper with carriers.

A budget phone is a $2-300 phone (Samsung’s A15 is $270 for example) tops.

Or we can just get 250 bucks Xiaomi/Poco, Vivo/Iqoo, Oppo/Reno that is far better in tech and value vs Samsung low tier phone as well lol.
 
A bit of an interesting situation for Nintendo in Thailand: The official Nintendo store on Shoppe and Lazada (online shopping stores ala Amazon or Aliexpress) no longer sell normal Switch Lite on their store, only the Animal Crossing bundle remains. This only applies to their own store though, as for the time being, third party sellers still have them.

euFNWME.jpg

List of all available hardware on Nintendo official Thailand store in Shoppe

Given they were on sales multiple times last year (one can get for as cheap as 4,XXX-5,XXX baht or roughly 111-140 US dollar, with the use of discount coupons) I wonder if those sales are not only meant to move the Lite model, but also get rid of excessive stocks to make room for other stuffs, since the current distributor also inherited leftover stock from the previous distributor. It might also be the decision to stop selling normal Lite model in favor of the Animal Crossing bundle instead.
 
There are no realities in which a $600 CND 3 years old tech iphone is a « budget option ». It’s not even a budget iphone since you can easily get a 13pro for cheaper with carriers.

A budget phone is a $2-300 phone (Samsung’s A15 is $270 for example) tops.
Budget is a relative term. The Switch Lite is the 'budget' Switch option but it isn't a budget gaming option compared to those emulation handhelds either.

The iPhone SE costs minimum A$719 in my country. iPhone 15 Pro is more than double at minimum $1,849. Even the basic iPhone 15 is more than double the SE at A$1,499. The iPhone SE is the current budget iPhone offering, their advertisements for it include the line "Love the price".

Carrier deals are not relevant as they have a contract element and the additional costs are baked into that.
 
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Both the Lite and the OLED are up YoY this FY.

I think a new Switch revision could happen and tap harder into that market.

Would we not assume that the people buying an OLED today is the people that would buy a switch 2 after it is launched?


Edit:
At the thread in general.
I just realised that other is up with 50% year over year. Would be interesting to know how the split is between lite/org/oled is in those markets
 
Q&A
Latest Q&A with Nintendo investors is live, and I'm surprised, there's only 1 person who asked about when the Succ would come out :p

There's a few interesting tidbits:

- as a result of the Mario Movie overperforming in Mexico, they actually focused a lot on that market during holiday season
- @AruanaRiva hype: they're expanding sales channel in SEA, and are using the Switch as basis for the future
- one investor did ask about the Zelda movie (wanted to know about whether the plot would be based on game or not), though no details were shared (big surprise, I know)
- Nintendo puts the unusual longetivity of Switch (partly) on the unified platform.

 
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