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As my marketing teacher would put it, Nintendo has master the 'cringe price'. Namely, if a consumer is too readily willing to buy something, you underpriced it, while if they don't buy it you overpriced it. The cringe price is when the consumer looks at the price, hesitates, but buys it anyway.
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Nintendo FY3/2024 Q2 Earnings Release, Switch Hardware Q2: 2.93M units (-9.85% YoY), 132.46M units LTD.
- Thread starter ggx2ac
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- Financial Results
As my marketing teacher would put it, Nintendo has master the 'cringe price'. Namely, if a consumer is too readily willing to buy something, you underpriced it, while if they don't buy it you overpriced it. The cringe price is when the consumer looks at the price, hesitates, but buys it anyway.
I think it's very much conditioning. If your consumers don't expect steep cuts, they'll buy at full price because that's what the games become valued at in their eyes. Iwata talked about this decades ago now and the "race to the bottom" he saw the industry heading even then.
Sony's finding their feet now trying to transition to this model and holding price, though still offering a later subscription release for budget gamers. Microsoft's throwing price out the window and trying to move everyone to subscription with day one releases.
@ggx2ac there is some problems on your web page.
r134x7.github.io
For exemple on FY3/2002 when you select "Regional Hardware/Software Units" it show FY3/2005 data instead of FY3/2002
ggx2ac + archives: Nintendo earnings data and other video game companies
In-depth data from Nintendo earnings releases and other video game companies
For exemple on FY3/2002 when you select "Regional Hardware/Software Units" it show FY3/2005 data instead of FY3/2002
Managing expectations is something that I find Nintendo does a lot of, to varying degrees of success. The way that I looked at grabbing Mario Wonder when asked was "I know what I am going to get".
If their is something that Consumers love, it's consistency which also explains why online sales of Nintendo-published products aren't often and never more than a 1/3 of retail pricing.
Hmmm, that is a change....
Of course, it’s a tough balancing act, and their price-holding strategy mostly works because they’ve done a stellar job at maintaining interest in their IPs.
It’s been‘ a been talked about a lot more often within the last 5yrs or so. If you wanna an idea of the thought process here is the late Iwata in his book Ask Iwata:
OP
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@ggx2ac there is some problems on your web page.
ggx2ac + archives: Nintendo earnings data and other video game companies
In-depth data from Nintendo earnings releases and other video game companies
For exemple on FY3/2002 when you select "Regional Hardware/Software Units" it show FY3/2005 data instead of FY3/2002
Thanks for pointing that out. I found what the issue is, you can still find the data you need since it's just offset by three years. I'll let you know when I've fixed it.
OP
OP
- Thread starter
- #158
@ggx2ac there is some problems on your web page.
ggx2ac + archives: Nintendo earnings data and other video game companies
In-depth data from Nintendo earnings releases and other video game companies
For exemple on FY3/2002 when you select "Regional Hardware/Software Units" it show FY3/2005 data instead of FY3/2002
I have fixed the issue so reload the webpage.
Just a reminder that the FYs for 2017/2018/2019 for the "Data by Fiscal Year" regarding the regional data for Nintendo Switch is different to the regional data for Nintendo Switch in the special page, i.e. the special page has the data for Europe and Other split for those years while the "data by fiscal year" does not.
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Nintendo shipped slightly more Switch in FY23-241H than FY22-231H and Nintendo shipped 18 mil last FY. Even with 25% decline over holidays and Q4, it would still be over 15 mil for the FY so it's highly unlikely for Nintendo to miss its FY target.
As for Switch passing PS2, it really depends on Switch 2 launch. Unless Switch 2 launch is a disaster like 3DS, there is no incentive for Nintendo to kill off Switch as fast as they can and more incentive to keep it as a lower price entry point to the Nintendo ecosystem.
As for Switch passing PS2, it really depends on Switch 2 launch. Unless Switch 2 launch is a disaster like 3DS, there is no incentive for Nintendo to kill off Switch as fast as they can and more incentive to keep it as a lower price entry point to the Nintendo ecosystem.
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Yeah I reckon they won't go back to previous fiscal years. But they may add the software sales once a physical release is done.
That's interesting about the NA eshop. Stardew isn't listed as download only in the UK.
I find it incredibly unlikely that the Switch will lose 50% of its sales in its eighth year, but let's say that the number you have presented is indeed the case. Going by Nintendos own words, they are stepping out of traditional console cycles, and will continue to support the Switch.
At some point, I believe Nintendo will indeed lower the price of the switch, and sell it as an entry level device.
It will have to move around 10 million more units.(I know 7.5 for "official" but 10 secures) I still see no issue with that, even in your worst case scenario.
Personally, I think the switch will be between 150, and 160 Million units by March 2025. That makes a sales total of between 18-28 million units from this report date. So 18 months. That means 1-1.5 million switches a month of average until March of 2025.
The switch has been out 78 months to the date of this report.
132.46 million units. 78 months. The switch has been selling roughly 1.7 million units per month, worldwide since launch if my numbers are correct. It only needs to average 1million per month to hit 150 million sold by March 2025. 1.5 to hit 160 million.
Unless Nintendo just stops producing the switch suddenly, it's going to become the best selling videogame console of all time. The data is there to support this claim.
It would be harder for it not to, then for it to do so at this point.
(Obviously if all of my numbers are correct. PLEASE correct me if I'm off)
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It's Western, and perhaps acknowledges western integration into the board with Meledandi, and maybe Arad down the line.
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Regional Hardware
Regional Software
Japan being the lead market for hardware for the second quarter in a row wasn't a surprise this time.
Regional Software
Japan being the lead market for hardware for the second quarter in a row wasn't a surprise this time.
First quarter of being under 1 million since Q1/19-20 in America.Regional Hardware
Regional Software
Japan being the lead market for hardware for the second quarter in a row wasn't a surprise this time.
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Yeah it seems Americans are moving on and really want Switch 2.
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Do you have regional totals/charts for DS & PS2?Regional Hardware
Regional Software
Japan being the lead market for hardware for the second quarter in a row wasn't a surprise this time.
It’s just crazy to me that Japan is holding it together in terms of hardware. It’s just not slowing down in Japan. Software wise, America and Europe are still holding very strong.Regional Hardware
Regional Software
Japan being the lead market for hardware for the second quarter in a row wasn't a surprise this time.
PS: thank you for this chart. Very helpful.
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oh I was just using those numbers as worse case scenario to paint a picture, switch will eventually take the crown I believe, switch evergreen lineup is way too strong to not be able to sell the switch for years to come, add to that nintendo will surely support it for as long as it is feasible with cross-gen games
Nintendo doesn't focus on graphics so I'm sure there will be many games that will make it to the switch for a few years
The current theory is that there are exports between Japan and the RotW because of the weak yean. The fact that software remains strong in other territories is also a positive sign toward that.
I'm not expecting anything specific as it's more a personal thought on how I think this christmas is very poor overall.
I'm just not in the "team" that thinks the console should stay alone with no future visibility as long as it sells decently enough.
These bundles look like post next gen release clearing stock. It's just sad to look at.
So if Nintendo can do their 15M with that, close to 8 years in, then i have nothing else to say. It just feels wrong from a business point of view.
They recently released that "future outlook" that has 3 key points that I was baffled with.
- Nintendo Switch will enter its 8th year.
- New titles will continue to be released.
- (...) maintaining business momentum.
The first one just shows how tired they're going to make many people from the Switch as time passes. Trying to make you upgrade your old rusty 2017 switch to an almost similar oled model. Valve understood upgrades better. Even de New 3ds did as well.
The second is either nothing, as long as a next Switch comes in, or very sad when I think about 2023 which seemed to try to defeat the purpose of what the switch was trying to be before.
The third one is just a vast joke.
What momentum do you maintain with 8 years of the exact same thing that is not at all future proof and already has 3 years of everyone else working with new hardwares.
Not that we need new stuff all the time, but the Switch is not yet at a point where they can stop updating. It needs a little bit more to reach the tipping point of diminishing returns, like the others.
At this point they should think Switch brand momentum, not 2017 switch momentum.
All they make me want is to be interested in steam deck, beside not having any steam game yet.
Everyone feel free to disagree. That's just my opinion. Nothing important.
So why wait for the next one if it can still sell.
Since a lot of people seems to say "the Switch still has a lot of sales power bla bla...
May as well refresh the brand while keeping some nice deals and interest for the previous Switch.
May as well refresh the brand while keeping some nice deals and interest for the previous Switch.
You probably quoted the wrong part.
I don't really disagree. But it wouldn't be a great achievement really.
Feels more like luck at this point, especially factoring covid in the equation.
I wasn't really trying to be too accurate about numbers, which I should probably have.
I just feel like stretching until it breaks just to reach the record doesn't feel the same as a DS or PS2 still selling a lot despite the next hardware announced or even available.
It's really not the same.
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That last part is an odd statement. If memory serves, switch in its 7th year has sold more hardware then any other system ever has in Japan. I am unsure about territories outside of Japan, as sales numbers are sparse in comparison, but Japan is a huge market.
It doesn't square with what you said.
Are you sure you got my point as it's intended ?
We're still not at DS/PS2 so why does Japan specifically matters when it comes to sales post next hardware reveal ?
I don't think we're talking about the same thing.
Basically I want to see Nintendo have the balls to announce the next hardware and see how the current Switch trajectory evolves.
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Why should.... nintendo self sabotage their holiday sales there? Like this does not even make a single spec of sense. What does Nintendo get from announcing Switch 2 coming next year to the whole world to hear entering their best selling period since their entrance to gaming industry?
Like you are talking momentum. But Switch momentum is really strong for such old console now. This whole convo makes 0 sense for me.
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I’m not sure I understand either.
It just sounds like someone inpatient that the new Nintendo console isn’t out on their preferred timeline.
Nintendo released a brand new 2D Mario for the holiday season as well as a remake of a beloved classic. It’s a perfectly fine holiday lineup and the bundles likely are designed to move inventory.
Why would it be good business sense to kneecap the still very strong sales of your current console for an early announcement of a new system? You seem to ridicule the concept that Switch still has momentum, but 15 million units in Year 7 is incredible momentum.
Acting like it is “luck” and “not all that impressive” if Switch sold the most units ever confuses me as well.
Nintendo likely learned their lesson from DS that releasing a direct successor that is also backwards compatible kills the momentum of the console.
The DS shipped 17.52 million consoles in FY ‘11 which ended essentially right as 3DS launched.
It only shipped 7.6 million consoles after that point.
It just sounds like someone inpatient that the new Nintendo console isn’t out on their preferred timeline.
Nintendo released a brand new 2D Mario for the holiday season as well as a remake of a beloved classic. It’s a perfectly fine holiday lineup and the bundles likely are designed to move inventory.
Why would it be good business sense to kneecap the still very strong sales of your current console for an early announcement of a new system? You seem to ridicule the concept that Switch still has momentum, but 15 million units in Year 7 is incredible momentum.
Acting like it is “luck” and “not all that impressive” if Switch sold the most units ever confuses me as well.
Nintendo likely learned their lesson from DS that releasing a direct successor that is also backwards compatible kills the momentum of the console.
The DS shipped 17.52 million consoles in FY ‘11 which ended essentially right as 3DS launched.
It only shipped 7.6 million consoles after that point.
Like Sony sabotaged their PS4 holiday with the ps5 ?
But really, do you have so little faith in the Switch to think that the sales would completely stop if they talked about the next system ?
I didn't know late buyers were the same as the day 1 people.
For me it would revive the brand instead of installing it in that supposed complimentary console to your main entertainment system at best.
Anyway. I was always thinking they would wait for January. That was the last limit. Not so surprised.
I have the right to want something I also think should, or might, happen.
Why should it be used against me ?
Also I want it mostly because my unit is severely dying.
But what I think they should or will do is absolutely not de ided by what I want.
There are a lot of things I think some companies should do that I really don't especially like at all.
Such a bad take. The switch is doing incredibly well for a console in its seventh year. I'd argue that it's doing better than anyone would have imagined and all because Nintendo has managed to maintain consistency, brand awareness and maintained momentum like they've stated. They've done it. You can't be mad that they're saying what they're doing when they are actually doing it. Nintendo have been fantastic this gen and the fact there is still interest in the switch for now gives me hope the transition to switch 2 or whatever they call it, will be smooth and they'll carry that momentum with them.
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The difference between PS4-PS5 and Switch-Switch 2 release potentially will be ... not so much to make such a fuse about it.
(let's assume a not so late release and a late november release)
PS4-PS5 from 15-11-2013 to 12-11-2020, that's just 3 days shy of 7 years.
Option 1: Switch-Switch 2 from 03-03-2017 to 12-06-2024, that's 7 years and 3 months
Option 2: Switch-Switch 2 from 03-03-2017 to 12-11-2024, that's 7 years and 8 months
Even in a late Novemeber release, the difference would only be about 8 months.
Between PS4 and Switch, trajectories are so different that Sony didn't kill a holiday because there was no holiday to kill by late 2019.
This whole conversation (and feelings) should be had if the same thing happens next year which then i would kinda agree about Switch being "dead" and need to be "revived" (what!?!?!?!!?), but that wont be the case. What's this obssesion with Nintendo having to talk about next gen Switch when everyone knows it's coming next year?
(let's assume a not so late release and a late november release)
PS4-PS5 from 15-11-2013 to 12-11-2020, that's just 3 days shy of 7 years.
Option 1: Switch-Switch 2 from 03-03-2017 to 12-06-2024, that's 7 years and 3 months
Option 2: Switch-Switch 2 from 03-03-2017 to 12-11-2024, that's 7 years and 8 months
Even in a late Novemeber release, the difference would only be about 8 months.
Between PS4 and Switch, trajectories are so different that Sony didn't kill a holiday because there was no holiday to kill by late 2019.
This whole conversation (and feelings) should be had if the same thing happens next year which then i would kinda agree about Switch being "dead" and need to be "revived" (what!?!?!?!!?), but that wont be the case. What's this obssesion with Nintendo having to talk about next gen Switch when everyone knows it's coming next year?
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Nope, there is regional data for the DS although Europe and Other are lumped together.Do you have regional totals/charts for DS & PS2?
AruanaRiva
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It is not about lack of faith. It is the question of, whats the benefit of announcing Switch 2 right before holiday this year?
Like i said before. Nintendo make the bulk of its sales from Holiday. This is going to be their final year to maximize Switch 1 sales before next year Switch 2 taking the spotlight.
If they can withold showing any info about Switch 2 till February before they open the floodgate. They will do it to ensure they hit their target 15m Switch sold this holiday.
You yourself talk that ur unit is severely dying like mine early this year lol. I upgraded to OLED. And guess what, thats what Nintendo will want you to do as well lol. Because business.
Software remains strong in Japan too.
It doesn't matter what anything here feels like to anyone.
The Switch OLED is a massive success. The New 3DS was nowhere close to that and more likely than not created consumer confusion both with it's name and simply with the barrage of 3DS models on the market.
What exactly is Valve understanding better there? Do you think the Switch OLED only has a better screen and nothing else?
It has a significantly better build quality, a better, really good stand, double the storage, better speakers, a LAN drive. Just holding it, it feels premium. That means a lot to the consumer. That's why the complaining about the price died down as soon as people got them in their hands.
Using lower selling, less successful products as example of how Nintendo should handle Switch upgrades makes no sense.
This is about this current fiscal year, where 15M is very likely to be reached. This is not about next fiscal year. There they will eventually need a new console.
These bundles are an undeniably effective way to push console sales and reach the target easier and more efficiently. It doesn't matter one bit wether it seems sad or feels wrong to you. Do bundles like these ever even happen post next gen? It's not like they have strong discounts. It's just the game for free.
Were you saying the same thing when Sony sold the PS4 for 200€ bundled with three free games in like 2017 and 2018?
Are you suggesting they should just not have any bundles? Or release the Switch 2 right now despite it still selling strongly?
Because these bundles look sad to you?
Wtf even is your argument here?
Just because Nintendo isn't yet at the point of diminishing returns, doesn't mean they should upgrade their hardware regularly with more powerful models. They would be more expensive and you'd have what happened with the PS4 Pro. It'd be the lowest selling model.
Most people are not interested in the Steam Deck. And especially not because the Switch is old. It's still getting great games regularly.
"May as well refresh the brand."
You seriously think they should have released the next gen console now?
This is not a "may as well" situation. They are supposed to take this seriously. Not throw out new consoles on a whim because of some arbitrary point where the Switch is apparently to old.
How the fuck is the Switch still selling strongly an argument for releasing the next gen console asap?
And this makes even less sense. What are you even saying? They should on purpose potentially sabotage the Switch sales potential this holiday quarter by announcing the next console prematurely? In what way exactly would that help them?
"See how the current Switch trajectory evolves." How does that help anyone with anything?
It's current trajectory is strong. That's all Nintendo or anyone needs to know.
Why exactly January? And why is that "the last limit"? Is it the limit of your patience?
"For me it would revive the brand instead of installing it in that supposed complimentary console to your main entertainment system at best."
And where is this coming from? Since when is this the case? Where are you getting this from?
The Switch needs to be revived?
What???
It's just a complementary console at best?
What???
There is a right point to announce a new console and to release it. And that point is not now, when they just released this consoles last big heavy hitter while it's still selling so incredibly strongly.
Following your argument they "may as well" have released the next gen console in November 2022. Oh no worries that it doesn't have any exclusives ready at all.
Not an issue that the 3DS had to deal with, right? RIGHT?
WRONG!
They sabotaged the DS' strong momentum and created a poor first impression of the 3DS with it's barely existing launch lineup and high price.
They seem to have learned from their mistakes. They need a very strong first year lineup.
You have not learned from their mistakes. Leading a huge multi-billion dollar company is not a game where you do and say shit because you want to have "the balls".
There is zero benefit from announcing a console more than half a year in advance.
If there is, then please explain to me what this benefit is.
The Switch right now has significantly better momentum than any other console ever before at this point in it's life. It doesn't need revival or anything like that.
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Facts
Do you have any evidence that the Switch sales would tank if they made an announcement this year? If I'm understanding you correctly, do you think Nintendo would fail to reach their 15m target if they announced the successor this year?
I know you weren’t asking me this question, so forgive me for jumping in.
I think there is value to Nintendo running bundles this holiday season, independent from whether or not Switch 2 is on its way and ready to be announced.
It’s a great opportunity for them to collect data about how bundles impact the life cycle of a console that is intended to be iterative moving forward.
if it works, they can sell the old system close to its original price just by throwing another game in with it, even after the new system launches.
Monster Hunter Rise?
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Besides the aforementioned MHR, wouldn't Doom Eternal also count - given that has about the same gap in time between the HD twins release and the Switch release?
I think it was sabotaged with no physical release. It really hurt that game, imo.
I'm just going to answer about the Steam deck as I just read wrong about the oled model. So disregard that part I talked about.
I talked about 2 things here, the rest of the sales for the fy which I didn't talk about in a clear manner at all, so the answers about it are fair.
The second part, about the successor, I stand by it.
I wont engage the rest since it's then backed by a "facts" from another important member, so no matter what i say I'm a clown. Feel free to continue to think that way, it doesn't matter.
I agree with you, this is a good idea and a neat strategy for Nintendo.
I think a Ring Fit + Switch Sports console bundle could be a good idea.
Sometimes I think that the smaller IPs would make good bundles. As the Switch is going on, it would raise some attention for the IP.
We didn't gave to wait that long:
- Doom in 2017 (original release in 2016)
- NBA 2K since 2017
- Wolfenstein in 2018 (original release in 2017)
- Mortal Kombat XI in 2019 (day and date release)
- Monster Rise in 2021 (Switch exclusive)
AruanaRiva
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Atlus, Harada, Night game is the new Alliance!!!
It is not only about tanking the sales of Switch for this holiday if Switch 2 is announced this year.
It is the simple case of. Why do you want to make your own life difficult by announcing upcoming machine for next year....entering this holiday?
Announcement of Switch 2 that is coming later next year is not going to do any positive factor for Switch 1 sales this holiday at all. It is literally move that has 0 advantage but has guaranteed disadvantage when the news of Switch 2 is run literally all over the gaming news or even mainstream is coming next year costing some sales to be lost for this holiday time.
If Nintendo can withold Switch 2 news till next year. It will be best move because they get all the sales from holiday. Get as close to 15m as much as possible and will have software that is needed to launch Switch 2 to big success at hand for next year. Win Win Win move.
Yup, you're all right.
To defend my point further though, I will argue and add that Hogwarts Legacy is a single player, story heavy game and a huge seller. That's a combinason unseen on a Nintendo home console since... I don't know, the GameCube era.
I would argue that the bundles are a great way to add value without lowering the price on a old but still successful product.
I am not sure how the launch of Switch 2 will be but if I was Nintendo I would launch a new premium product, which most likely would have limited stock, and keep the light and og with bundles.
I am not sure how the launch of Switch 2 will be but if I was Nintendo I would launch a new premium product, which most likely would have limited stock, and keep the light and og with bundles.
I think one advantage is to get ahead of manufacturing leaks and control the message. I'm not saying Nintendo needs to do that but that could be one reason to announce the Switch 2. Plus, perhaps a large chunk of the holiday buyers wouldn't be affected by the announcement of a more expensive Switch 2.
I understand but I just don't see how announcing it would prevent Nintendo from reaching the 15m goal. One possibility would be that they would reach 15m or more even after announcing it. Perhaps the amount of bundles would lessen the impact of a possible Switch 2 announcement.
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Announcing and releasing a new platform is difficult no matter when it happens, let’s not be of the opinion that there’s an ideal or optimal time that doesn’t have the potential for serious negative business impact.
Announce it post-holiday and the people who Nintendo convinced to buy an OLED this holiday are that much further away from transitioning to new hardware as they’ll want to maximize the money they just spent on hardware. There’s serious negatives either way, it’s just a matter of prioritizing the future of the business rather than the short-term present.
Honestly that negative doesn’t seem like a huge concern. I doubt the customers you’re describing are the ones who’ll be jumping onto the switch 2 any time soon and it’s likely to be in short supply for ages after release anyway (assuming they don’t totally fuckup).