Nintendo FY3/2024 Q2 Earnings Release, Switch Hardware Q2: 2.93M units (-9.85% YoY), 132.46M units LTD.

[Roliq]

You got a link to that interview? Its kinda genuinely funny.

Yeah here is the reddit post that had some excerpts of the translated interview from Nintendo Dream




They literally compare Engage to Awakening as them trying to appeal to a wide audience, as we saw that really really didn't work out this time, you can even say it did the opposite

 

[epicene101]

Nintendo revised up everithing exept Hardware.

This means they are not confident about Holidays.

Switch lite has a huge increase that make me wonder if some Holidays bundles (like the Animal crossing one) released in October are already includes.

Maybe they’re confident they will hit it (slightly lower or higher) and didn’t see the need to adjust it.

What I do know is, if they miss it by anything higher than 200K…the internet will be fun until the next console hits lol.

Nintendo Switch versus Nintendo DS

After 27 quarters the Switch has shipped 132.46 million units and the DS had shipped 147.86 million units, this means launched aligned Switch trails DS by 15.40 million. Overall the Switch is just 21.56 million behind DS' lifetime total.

All of this while being more expensive (hardware & software).

 

[acezam]

Thanks to @pierre485

• Switch por trimestres:

• Switch comparada con NDS

• Consolas de Nintendo vendidas a nivel mundial

• Nintendo Switch Lite

• Nintendo Switch OLED

• Switch por Modelos

• Pikmin 4

• The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom

• Mario Kart 8 Deluxe

• Pokémon Scarlet/Violet

• Animal Crossing: New Horizon

• Super Smash Bros. Ultimate

• The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild

• Super Mario Odyssey

• Pokémon Sword/Shield

• Super Mario Party

• New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe

 

[acezam]

• Super Mario 3D World + Bowser's Fury

• Mario Party Superstars

• Nintendo Switch Sports

• 63 juegos distribuidos por Nintendo han vendido al menos 1 millón de copias

• Software de Switch por Trimestres

....

 

[SquidEnthusiast]

It's gonna be a fun time when Mario Kart cracks 60 million

 

[Belthazar]

*PS4 : 1409.1M without FY2014
*PS4 : ≥ 1490.9M with FY2014

*PS4 + PS5 : 2198.6M (as of june 30, 2023)

Looking at those PS3, PS4 and PS5 software numbers... It's insane to think how much of each are GTA V copies.

 

[My Tulpa]

It's gonna be a fun time when Mario Kart cracks 60 million

It already has. It’s over 65 million sold.

 

[Malden]

It's gonna be a fun time when Mario Kart cracks 60 million

People already making the joke Mario Kart 64.

 

[JB2448]

I don't see any relation between hardware and Mario RPG.
Wonder maybe, let's say it moves hardware.
Mario RPG ? A good joke.

I’m not sure if you’re playing Devil’s Advocate here or not, but given even the most conservative pessimistic trends, this almost feels like a guarantee that hardware sales for Nintendo Switch will reach PlayStation 2 and Nintendo DS. See Luminoth’s chart below.

 

[Pikachupwnage]

I’m not sure if you’re playing Devil’s Advocate here or not, but given even the most conservative pessimistic trends, this almost feels like a guarantee that hardware sales for Nintendo Switch will reach PlayStation 2 and Nintendo DS. See Luminoth’s chart below.

Think Q3 can be up YoY in software over Q3 last year?

Last year had pokemon (+Splatoon 3 in september) but this year has more Q3 releases, Mario evergreens being juiced by the movie, and more aggresive bundling. Looks like nearly every console sold worldwide once the shopping season really starts is bundled and they brought back the popular SMP Joycon bundle too.

I feel like Super Mario RPG will match or surpass Splatoon 3 Q3 2022 shipments(~2.2M) quite easily. And TOTK likely got through most its overshipment in Q2 so it should rebound in Q3 shipments.

We also have some things like Hogwarts Legacy and Dragon Quest Monsters as signifigant third party release.

At the very least it will be flat or very very close to it.

 

[Alex4]

63 juegos distribuidos por Nintendo han vendido al menos 1 millón de copias

Where did the updated numbers for titles like Xenoblade, Link's Awakening, and Luigi's Mansion come from? Also, thanks for the chart.

 

[acezam]

Where did the updated numbers for titles like Xenoblade, Link's Awakening, and Luigi's Mansion come from? Also, thanks for the chart.

All 63 known 1st party million sellers on Nintendo Switch

• Nintendo published only

• Source : Nintendo (IR) and CESA (public figures only)

Higher resolution image : https://ibb.co/dMnwNWd

DATA SOURCEQ3 2023 : https://nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2023/231107_4e.pdf…https://web.archive.org/web/20231107143730/https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/software/index.html…

Q1 2023 : https://nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2023/230509_3e.pdf…https://web.archive.org/web/20230515014454/https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/finance/software/index.html…

Q4 2022 (CESA) : https://bit.ly/3OnwjHz

Q3 2022 and prior : Mix of Nintendo / prior CESA books

 

[saicho]

Not sure how to put this nicely... While I appreciate people want to provide in depth analysis, I'm not sure it works well when such analysis is based on many assumptions which results in the information provided being inaccurate and misleading. I have seen two posts with the same issue in the past couple days and we have got to be better about it.

 

[Simar]

The OLED model is the one selling the most with the most growth. If anything dropping the price to the OG Switch price and phasing out the OG model seems more likely.

The OLED model is the one closest to Switch 2 (as the "high-end" product) so customers might decide to save $50-100 and get the new product.
Someone interested in buying a $150-200 console would buy neither the OLED nor the 2.

I doubt they can reduce the price a lot (if at all) with the same content.
Without the dock they could save some money though and offer a cheaper (dockable) model with smaller packaging.

 

[Nanashrew]

New slides are up

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2023/231108e.pdf

 

[LOCK]

Nintendo is consistent and that’s a good choice financially

 

[MOKU]

With the news that Nintendo will keep releasing titles, and are not bound by traditional platform cycle, the Switch becoming the best selling console of all time is now absolute.

By how much, and when are the only real questions left.

 

[Peleo]

@pierre485 / @acezam Thanks for sharing the charts, incredible work. Any chances you can include one with Nintendo's IP/Royalties related income moving forward? As they continously expand into this area, it should be more and more impactful. 2024H1 it went from 4% of Total Revenue to 7% in comparison to 2023H1.

 

[Gartooth]

The start of their presentation slides this quarter lean particularly heavy into the IP expansion aspect of the business. Very much seems like they're emphasizing their transformation into an entertainment company, and how all these different entertainment applications of their IP can lead into success of their video game platform. (As they mention with increased sales momentum for Mario games this year)

 

[Drblitzk]

38 million NSO members by Sep 30 2023, up from 36 million by Sep 30 2022 and 32 million the year prior.

Sep 2021: https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2021/211105e.pdf
Sep 2022: https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2022/221109e.pdf
Sep 2021: https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2023/231108e.pdf

It seems September is the month to report updates for this metric, which makes sense, since it was launched on that month too.

 

[AruanaRiva]

New slides are up

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2023/231108e.pdf

Mario Wonder being fastest selling Mario is shocking.O_O And people are quite down for no announcement before too lol.

38 million NSO members by Sep 30 2023, up from 36 million by Sep 30 2022 and 32 million the year prior.

Sep 2021: https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2021/211105e.pdf
Sep 2022: https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2022/221109e.pdf
Sep 2021: https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2023/231108e.pdf

It seems September is the month to report updates for this metric, which makes sense, since it was launched on that month too.

It keep growing year after year is good showing for nintendo upcoming generation NSO push as well.

Still believe that nintendo should do more stuff like F-Zero 99 indeed there to pull more people into NSO.

Steel Diver 25?
Pushmo 50?
NES Remix 99?

The possibility is limitless

 

[Drblitzk]

With the news that Nintendo will keep releasing titles, and are not bound by traditional platform cycle, the Switch becoming the best selling console of all time is now absolute.

By how much, and when are the only real questions left.

I f you are talking about the quote in slide 53, they never specify these new titles will be from Nintendo itself specifically, I would wait to see what these titles are before talking in absolutes, we know just dance and not fifa will continue appearing on Switch most likely until like 2028 if we go by past examples. Not that the it's not possible for the Switch to sell more than 160M but nothing is guaranteed I feel.

Mario Wonder being fastest selling Mario is shocking.O_O And people are quite down for no announcement before too lol.



It keep growing year after year is good showing for nintendo upcoming generation NSO push as well.

Still believe that nintendo should do more stuff like F-Zero 99 indeed there to pull more people into NSO.

Steel Diver 25?
Pushmo 50?
NES Remix 99?

The possibility is limitless

I think those do little to attract new users unfortunately, they will need massive multiplayer titles like COD, which is coming.

 

[Pikachupwnage]

New slides are up

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2023/231108e.pdf

No Pikmin 1+2 numbers….nooooooooo!

Still some juicy details overall though

 

[AruanaRiva]

I think those do little to attract new users unfortunately, they will need massive multiplayer titles like COD, which is coming.

Those thing will maintain the momentum for NSO. Sure getting massive multiplayer titles is essential as well.

But having more NSO unique title is going to be beneficial as differential factor vs all other subscription system.

 

[MegaXZero]

NSO sub growth is weak…but that’s an industry wide problem in gaming and out of gaming. Just means Nintendo isn’t special.

 

[Terrell]

• We have been continuously discussing and reviewing the plan after its initial announcement in 2021.
• Although we do not provide specific amounts at this time, we expect the scale of capital investment to increase, mainly in the "accumulation of software assets" in the "games" area, and to exceed the scale of the amount currently indicated.

While they discuss increasing the size of the new development building (and delaying its completion to 2028), I get the impression that this spending has expanded beyond the scope of that building and the staff to fill it, as well. Gonna be an interesting few years coming up, I guess.

 

[AruanaRiva]

NSO sub growth is weak…but that’s an industry wide problem in gaming and out of gaming. Just means Nintendo isn’t special.

As long as it is not declining in the current subs landscape i think ninty is very happy lol.

 

[My Tulpa]

Mario Wonder being fastest selling Mario is shocking.O_O And people are quite down for no announcement before too lol.

Just wanted to correct a slight emphasis…fastest selling “Super Mario” game…but still great to see!

 

[MegaBulborb]

Guys, that extra presentation that Nintendo posted after the initial reports is like a gift to all of us numbers nerds. There is so much juicy stuff in their lmao.

 

[BishopLamont]

switch gonna sell over 20m for the fiscal year ending March 2024

bringing total switch sales to 146M

 

[Joseki]

NSO sub growth is weak…but that’s an industry wide problem in gaming and out of gaming. Just means Nintendo isn’t special.

They are gonna raise the price soon I think.

The EP Family Plan especially is dirty cheap. It's €69.99/8 accounts or €8.75/1 account. I last extended my sub with the 10% golden point promo meaning I got €14 in cashback on the eShop with a spending of €8.75. I subbed a year with a net spending of €-5.

I doubt Nintendo is gonna be this generous for long.

 

[Kenka]

switch gonna sell over 20m for the fiscal year ending March 2024

bringing total switch sales to 146M

That is extremely bold.

The Switch sold 18M last year. I don't see it being up FYoFY.

 

[BishopLamont]

That is extremely bold.

The Switch sold 18M last year. I don't see it being up FYoFY.

oh I'm super bold, my hairline is showing

 

[Jin+Jang]

Wow at TOTK results. In 6 months almost 20 mil.
132 mil. LTD for NSW. It won't reach PS2s 155+ mil. huh?

 

[BTB123]

They wouls be in luck then, considering what they have to offer and the recent results in the west.

But good for them if they do.


I don't. But I also don't see anything strong from this current holiday. All those oled bundles are just milking old stuff. Are there that many new customers still remaining, with barely any price drop, I don't know.

What are you expecting? 4M in the holiday quarter? There is a almost 0% chance of it being "far from it".
6M in Q3 and 2M in Q4 would put it just below their 15M forecast, even just 1.5M in Q4 would be quite close. There's almost way they're ending below 14M. Even 13M would be remarkably strong.

 

[BishopLamont]

Wow at TOTK results. In 6 months almost 20 mil.
132 mil. LTD for NSW. It won't reach PS2s 155+ mil. huh?

let's say switch does 15m by end of March 2024, and does 50% of that by end of March 2025, lifetime sales will be 147.5M

can it make up the rest? depends how bullish one is on switch tail end sales

 

[Blue Monty]

Pikmin sell-through seems to be great with 2.5m units, this probably means they will need to ship a decent amount of new copies for xmas so I wouldnt be surprised if the next quarter the drop isnt that big and reaches 3m

 

[Lelouch0612]

Pikmin sell-through seems to be great with 2.5m units, this probably means they will need to ship a decent amount of new copies for xmas so I wouldnt be surprised if the next quarter the drop isnt that big and reaches 3m

Makes me very confident for a 3M+ total by the end of 2023 for sure.

 

[BTB123]

3D World + Bowser's Fury is at 12.58M.

This tweet is not where the numbers as of June 2023 came from. This specific chart has the December 2022 or March 2023 numbers for all of these games.

 

[My Tulpa]

That is extremely bold.

The Switch sold 18M last year. I don't see it being up FYoFY.

I mean, the Switch is already up over last year looking at the first 6 months of both.

But I agree, that is an extremely bold claim lol.

I’d bet it sells ~17 million, at most, if I had to bet.

 

[BTB123]

I f you are talking about the quote in slide 53, they never specify these new titles will be from Nintendo itself specifically, I would wait to see what these titles are before talking in absolutes, we know just dance and not fifa will continue appearing on Switch most likely until like 2028 if we go by past examples. Not that the it's not possible for the Switch to sell more than 160M but nothing is guaranteed I feel.

Here is what they said on slide 57:
"We will continue to release new titles and content for Nintendo Switch
without being bound by the traditional concept of the platform lifecycle."

Obviously by that they also mean the already announced games coming next year.

 

[Aostia82]

Here is what they said on slide 57:
"We will continue to release new titles and content for Nintendo Switch
without being bound by the traditional concept of the platform lifecycle."

Obviously by that they also mean the already announced games coming next year.

this also hints at backward compatibility imho

 

[pierre485]

3D World + Bowser's Fury is at 12.58M.

This tweet is not where the numbers as of June 2023 came from. This specific chart has the December 2022 or March 2023 numbers for all of these games.

I've updated the image -> 3D World figure was outdated, sorry

 

[SuperCharlie78]

New slides are up

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2023/231108e.pdf

Thank you for sharing.

Good Lord, Nintendo is a beast.

 

[Lelouch0612]

Nintendo stock has hit a 2-years high.

If things go smoothly, there should be a path for further increases in the coming year.

 

[Luminoth 4545]

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2023/231108e.pdf
Here are some highlights

- Net sales up 21.2% and Net profit up 17.7% year over year (Q1+Q2)
- Net sales forecast to be 9% up and Net profit 23.5% up year over year for the entire fiscal year
- Software forecast increased to 185 million
- Nintendo want to bring more exposure to all of their characters
- Nintendo pleased with the growth of the Mario series
- Super Mario Bro's Wonder sold through 4.3 million after 2 weeks
- Pikmin 4 sold through 2.5 million
- Switch hardware has sold through over 130 million
- First party software sell-through is the second highest so far this fiscal year
- Zelda TotK sold through 17.6 million up from 15.7 million the previous quarter (1.9million sold through vs 0.99 million shipped).
-Twilight princess sold 7.50 million on Wii (previous report was 7.26 million over a decade ago)
- Nintendo pleased with the growth of the Zelda series
- Nintendo pleased with the incredible legs of their 1st party software
- Nintendo Pleased that Animal Crossing and Kirby sales are not so reliant on Japan anymore because the sell very well overseas.
- Kirby and the Forgotten land has now sold 6.96 million.
- Subscribers to Nintendo Switch online reach over 38 million
- Annual active users reach 117 million

 

[acezam]

3D World + Bowser's Fury is at 12.58M.

This tweet is not where the numbers as of June 2023 came from. This specific chart has the December 2022 or March 2023 numbers for all of these games.

Update graph

 

[Hartmann]

The situation in the second half of the year (Oct. 2023-Mar. 2024) is different: the hardware is in its seventh year, so it is not an easy situation to increase the number of units. There is not a new Zelda-level software release every quarter either. In addition to acquiring new customers, it is important to increase the number of users who own multiple machines. The holiday sales season will be extremely important in order to achieve our full-year plan.

任天堂｢ゼルダの伝説｣実写映画　宮本茂氏「納得できたら公開」 - 日本経済新聞

任天堂は8日、オンラインで経営方針説明会を開き、IP（知的財産）活用などについて説明した。同日発表した「ゼルダの伝説」の実写映画について、シリーズの生みの親の宮本茂フェローは「納得できる、面白いものができたら公開したい」と完成度にこだわる姿勢を見せた。説明会での古川俊太郎社長と宮本氏の主な質疑応答は以下の通り。――実写化は「イメージと違う」と捉えられるリスクがありませんか。宮本氏「世界中のフ

www.nikkei.com

 

[Godzilla]

The legs on Nintendo games while keeping a price close to full price for such a long time it's something that should be study in marketing/economy classes.

Is just out of this world how nintendo has managed to hold the value of their games.

 

[duvjones]

The legs on Nintendo games while keeping a price close to full price for such a long time it's something that should be study in marketing/economy classes.

Is just out of this world how nintendo has managed to hold the value of their games.

It is a point of interest that I don't see poked at alot, because it is extremely rare.