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Nintendo FY3/2024 Q1 Earnings Release, Switch Hardware Q1: 3.91M units (+13.99% YoY), 129.53M units LTD. Most profitable first quarter ever
- Thread starter ggx2ac
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- Financial Results
I feel like this is going to be the last big Switch Christmas, much like the blowout Wii holiday that had NSMB.
The only outstanding question is whether the new model will cripple its predecessor or coexist with it for 2-3 years. If it’s the latter, Switch will comfortably outpace even the highest final estimates for PS2.
Wait, what? Are you expecting Switch to sell >15M in the next 2 quarters (in line with its best year ever, and also Nintendo's forecast for the entire year)??? It's going to sell slightly above half that, and that's already a remarkable result for a platform in its 7th year.
I am really trying to look at this period(console sales history)as fact-forward as possible.
By the end of the year, the switch will be, at the very least, at 140 million total units sold. That number will be off from official estimates of the PS2, by a hair over 15 million total unit sales.
I am also of the firm belief that the switch 2 will not launch until around October/November of 2024 at the earliest.
By the time the switch 2 launches, the switch, at minimum, should be at 145 million units sold.(i am being very conservative in my estimates) That means the switch would need to sell 10 million units post switch 2 launch, at a more then likely discounted price, entry level switch.
That absolutely can be done.
Now with that said, the launch of Mario Wonder is going to be an event in the videogame world, and will best even TOTK launch sales. That is going to have a profound impact on hardware sales. My guess, as of right now, is that the switch will end the year at, or around 145 million(+/- 1 million units)and be at or around 150 million total consoles sold by the launch of the switch 2. That would leave only 5 million total sales, away from the PS2 record.
I am struggling to see how the switch doesn't surpass the record.
Yeah, it struck me that the OLED model has not just become the biggest model but it dwarves all the other skus combined and has become the de facto Switch model, even though it introduces a price hike this late into the systems life.
Definitely bodes well for Nintendo being able to sell a new system in the €400-€450 range I think - as much as I'd prefer it to be cheaper
(in a hypothetical world where going below €400 wouldn't mean they would reduce the level of power in the device in a crippling fashion)
Although there was no conference or Q&A for the Q1 earnings release, Nikkei Asia got some quotes from Furukawa.
Their March 31st to June 30th shipments this year are better than the last one, its very likely it will reach 140 million by December 31st.
Makes me wonder if Nintendo will announce the next gen console this fall or will be only within 3-5 months from its release which is what they did with the Switch, post generation sales overall are way lower than before in the industry and the PS2 was actually an exception to the rule with 30% of the sales coming after the PS3 release. They could probably hold the announcement until they have a production order that surpasses the PS2 final numbers.
Makes me wonder if Nintendo will announce the next gen console this fall or will be only within 3-5 months from its release which is what they did with the Switch, post generation sales overall are way lower than before in the industry and the PS2 was actually an exception to the rule with 30% of the sales coming after the PS3 release. They could probably hold the announcement until they have a production order that surpasses the PS2 final numbers.
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imho 10M for 2024 and 5M for 2025 should be a cakewalk. The big question mark is how high can a Pokemon-less holiday go in 2023 (imho very high with a Wonder bundle)
It needs to sell another 24.5 million to overtake the Nintendo DS.
And ~30 million units to beat the PS2.
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I see Nintendo going for U$399,90 for Switch 2. OLED may get a price cut to U$299,90 or U$249,90 and Lite for U$149,90. Standard Switch should be fased out.Yeah, it struck me that the OLED model has not just become the biggest model but it dwarves all the other skus combined and has become the de facto Switch model, even though it introduces a price hike this late into the systems life.
Definitely bodes well for Nintendo being able to sell a new system in the €400-€450 range I think - as much as I'd prefer it to be cheaper
nah, it will be like the new 3ds, oled will get discontinued and only cheaper models will remain. still i expect nintendo to keep switch alive until 2026 at least for those who cant/dont want to splash more for the successor
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Or maybe they will launch a new, cheaper Standard Switch model.
Would make sense if the New 3DS XL didn’t remain in production after the cut of the New 3DS.
OG Switch makes the most sense to discontinue. They can drop the OLED to $299 - or not - and drop the Lite to $149 - or not - while Switch 2 becomes the topline offering.
im confused now lol a lot of models but my impression is that when the switch released only the 2ds and 2ds xl remained on sale? maybe it was just here in europe, idk
maybe but afaik the switch v2 has the same internals as the oled? performance wise?
It should be mentioned that the wii also had a cheaper crapier version late in the game
Thanks to @pierre485
- Switch
- The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom
- Mario Kart 8 Deluxe
- Pokémon Scarlet/Violet
- Animal Crossing: New Horizon
- Super Smash Bros. Ultimate
- The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild
- Super Mario Odyssey
- Pokémon Sword/Shield
- Super Mario Party
- New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe
- Los 61 juegos distribuidos por Nintendo que han vendido al menos 1 millón de copias.
- Cantidad de juegos vendidos en Switch en cada trimestre
- 47,3% de ventas de software son digitales
- Gasto en investigación y desarrollo
- Ventas Netas
- Beneficio neto
- Siguientes lanzamientos
Wow. I really hope this makes it to DS and PS2 numbers. Latter is at what, 155m?
Give us a price cut or some heavy bundling at Christmas, Nintendo!
Give us a price cut or some heavy bundling at Christmas, Nintendo!
The numbers in this report seem unreal. This is the best first quarter of a FY Nintendo has ever had. It even blows away 2020 which had Animal Crossing + COVID driving sales. Software numbers and number of active users are both still increasing. Often during a system's seventh year, people are ready to move on to another system. Switch users are not moving on. This is not a system that is ready to be put out to pasture for the vast majority of consumers.
Hardware shipments are incredibly good. Even outside of Japan, hardware shipments are only down 0.01M units. Shipments are basically flat outside of Japan and up YoY if you include Japan. Sell through of hardware is up YoY even outside of Japan. Sure Zelda, a really big game, released. However, I've seen plenty of systems release big games in their seventh year and they don't ship around 4M systems outside of a holiday quarter. This is not just Zelda moving hardware. Switch is still a system with very healthy hardware sales.
I'm thinking Switch hardware will end up around 17M for the fiscal year total. Hardware is just selling too well. Some of that may be due to Chinese importers, but at the end of the day, that still means Switch hardware is selling well and will likely continue to keep selling well.
Hardware shipments are incredibly good. Even outside of Japan, hardware shipments are only down 0.01M units. Shipments are basically flat outside of Japan and up YoY if you include Japan. Sell through of hardware is up YoY even outside of Japan. Sure Zelda, a really big game, released. However, I've seen plenty of systems release big games in their seventh year and they don't ship around 4M systems outside of a holiday quarter. This is not just Zelda moving hardware. Switch is still a system with very healthy hardware sales.
I'm thinking Switch hardware will end up around 17M for the fiscal year total. Hardware is just selling too well. Some of that may be due to Chinese importers, but at the end of the day, that still means Switch hardware is selling well and will likely continue to keep selling well.
100% heavy bundling this Christmas.
If they just do a price cut that will greatly help. Still as a fan I’m actually impressed and proud they have yet to play that card.
155m is the last reported figure for the PS2 and 154.02 million is Nintendo's number for the DS family of handhelds.
Leaving aside bundles, I think that a price cut is a strong unplayed card that can easily push momentum for hardware, but the relatively strong pace of sales by way of a varied number of exclusive software tentpoles makes the need to reduce the profits earned per unit in pursuit of volume unnecessary for now. Alongside this, incentive mechanisms to increase the sales for their first party titles like the voucher program and the occasional bundle are decent, but I think the return of Nintendo Selects toward the end of the console lifecycle or before the transitionary period begins would help really bolster games with less notable tails while helping IPs with faltering/meager strength gain some mindshare moving into the next generation. Something that can further be capitalized on strategically.
So far, I think that Nintendo has little in the way of getting to 155 million or more units as long as they have a few more games in the backburner. The holiday is looking very strong with a new 2D Mario game and a variety of other options to fill out the roster across various demographic interests.
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Great looking NDS versus NSW comparison chart. You made a minor error though, the NDS sold 31.18 million in it's 5th year.
It needs to sell another 24.5 million to overtake the Nintendo DS.
And ~30 million units to beat the PS2.
While I‘m also european (hallöchen), only the standard New 3DS was discontinued in 2017.
But I guess that you are right because of two things: Nintendo tested which version of an underpowered/old console to discontinue first when you also have a superior one.
And despite PS4 Pro and Xbox One X being a upgrade in power too and for this reason not completly the same case, I think it showed that you keep the cheapest version.
The new 2DS xl was introduced when switch was launched everything else was discontinued if I don't remember wrongly.
I would keep the lite and the OG, you want the people with money to buy the new shinny stuff.
Keep the lite for the kids market if necessary otherwise just go switch 2 and introduce a cheaper version when needed.
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It would be really nice if, at some point, Nintendo put out the numbers of Virtual Console and the combinedspecial hardwares (classic collections, new Game & Watch devices, etc)
I'm curious to know how much the original Zelda has sold when including all those purchasable re-releases
I'm curious to know how much the original Zelda has sold when including all those purchasable re-releases
You are wrong.
Nintendo Sales Data show New 3DS XL until 3/2019, 2DS until 3/2020 and New 2DS XL until 3/2021.
They have $9.3+ billion USD in cash saved. Just have to wonder if they ever plan on using any significant amount of it. I know they have been growing, but the amount they have saved has grown at the same time.
Nintendo should consider bringing out a bundle containing botw and totk including all the dlc.
Reality: Mario Kart 8 Deluxe Black Friday bundle
Nintendo had a huge amount of saved cash during both the Wii U/3DS era and still had it during the beginning of Switch era. From what I can tell, they use their money to make small acquisitions and to have third party developers make exclusive games for them. There are several games like Hyrule Warriors or Mario + Rabbids, etc.... Basically Nintendo uses their money to have a greater quantity of titles on their systems. However, these new titles don't appear to have big budgets.
So they are using some of that cash, but only a tiny fraction of what they could be using. They don't seem like they want to make big risks involving a lot of money nor do they want to make a big acquisition. I think the main purpose the money serves is so they can weather the storm if they have another bad generation like the Wii U/3DS (or worse).
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Regional hardware
Regional software
Hardware milestones: Japan passes 30 million and America's passes 50 million, Other pases 15 million, America's outshipped in a quarter for the first time ever.
Software milestones: highest ever global Q1, highest ever America's Q1, highest ever Q1 and overall quarter for Other.
Regional software
Hardware milestones: Japan passes 30 million and America's passes 50 million, Other pases 15 million, America's outshipped in a quarter for the first time ever.
Software milestones: highest ever global Q1, highest ever America's Q1, highest ever Q1 and overall quarter for Other.
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Could be wrong but I remember that there were stock issues at the time. I haven't seen stock issues for the switch for pretty long time now.
Beyond that they have zero debt, almost unheard of for a company their size. They could leverage significant capital should the need arise.
Hardware was higher in that quarter at 4.45M, as you can see in the post above your's, but profits and software were higher in this recent quarter.
I would find it great if you would write all of this in English, because that's the language that everyone can speak here.
Also it seems to me like @pierre485 doesn't have the correct numbers for Twilight Princess, as that bar is below 10M, but should've been at exactly 10M.
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I do think they should be investing in some companies, maybe not huge purchases but a couple hundred mil here and there.
setting up some support studios in places like SEA or even India would make the most logical sense. buy that second studio off of Ubisoft (Prince of Persia remake) for instance
They should buy the Mario/Rabbids team from Ubi and then continue that series but without the god awful Rabbids characters.
Think that series is cooked but why limit them to that series when they could do a lot more
Sales of Nintendo Switch software bundled with hardware:
FY3/2020: 3.40M
FY3/2021: 3.80M
FY3/2022: 1.50M
FY3/2023: 1.25M
It's remarkable how little bundled games have sold on Switch, with ~10M bundled software sold over the last 4 fiscal years vs a total of ~848M software sold overall during that same period.
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Launch-aligned Software Tie Ratio for all Nintendo platfotms since NDS:
Switch tie ratio continued to approach that of the Wii.
FY3/2020: 3.40M
FY3/2021: 3.80M
FY3/2022: 1.50M
FY3/2023: 1.25M
It's remarkable how little bundled games have sold on Switch, with ~10M bundled software sold over the last 4 fiscal years vs a total of ~848M software sold overall during that same period.
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Launch-aligned Software Tie Ratio for all Nintendo platfotms since NDS:
Switch tie ratio continued to approach that of the Wii.
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They don't do that every quarter. Same as with NSO subscriber numbers.
OP
OP
- Thread starter
- #95
Fixed two errors in the OP regarding Key Sales Indicators:
- Proportion of Downloadable Versions of Packaged Software Sales was not displaying sales numbers, this is now fixed.
- Sales numbers used were from the 1st quarter of last fy, this is now fixed.
- Proportion of Downloadable Versions of Packaged Software Sales was not displaying sales numbers, this is now fixed.
- Sales numbers used were from the 1st quarter of last fy, this is now fixed.
