They are benefitting from FX fluctuations (costs are in Yen and most of the revenue is made abroad). Software and hardare sales were down YoY.
Nintendo FY3/2023 Q1 Earnings Release, Switch Hardware Q1 - 3.43M units (-22.9% YoY), 111.08M units LTD
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Software matters more for profit than hardware, most of the value of hardware comes from the huge amount of software moved linked to increase in hardware sales. Still as mentioned above weak yen has helped a ton
Heaven is really raining luck down on Ninty huh
Also agreed 140mil units sold for Switch is a lock.
Thanks. What does "FX" stand for here?
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oh my, thx. this is some "X-Mas" thing, eh ^^
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After 22 quarters PS4 shipped either 96.9m or 97.0m, the quarters add up to 97.0m but Sony had it at 96.9m at that point. This is because FY 2014-15 adds up to 14.9m but Sony rounded down to 14.8m. Switch is around 14.1m ahead of PS4 aligned with one less holiday quarter.
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I think the next quarter Switch hardware is going to jump back over 4m, I'm thinking 4.25m with the splatoon 3 affect.
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Considering the yen had pretty much no inflation since the 90s Nintendos recent profit is just mind-boggling.
And they are investing in new ventures, so I have no idea where Nintendo will be 10-15 years from now but they certainly have the cash for everything.
And they are investing in new ventures, so I have no idea where Nintendo will be 10-15 years from now but they certainly have the cash for everything.
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Not too long ago, I would have said yes. As is, though, Smash is selling more per quarter, carried almost completely by how much it outsells Zelda in Japan
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NSO/expansion pass is probably doing big numbers too.
That Mario Kart booster pack on the expansion pass was a fantastic idea.
“This generation” according to Wikipedia geniuses started 11 years ago with the 3DS so for hardware they are already 200+ million all together as of June.
To be fair, it already launched a low price, relatively speaking. $300 today is like $200 in the 2000's. That being said, if we get a new model in 2023, I can see a price drop happening in 2024 (and then a successor revealed and launched in 2025).
To be fair, I feel like 2023 is way too early. True that it would not reach 140m in that scenario, but I worry about what Nintendo could have ready if a successor launches next year. No Zelda. No Splatoon. Likely no MK. Likely no Smash or Pokémon. Too early for AC. We could get a Mario game but I feel like most of the other games I mentioned would make a bigger splash.
A lot of big Switch games will be getting DLC in 2023, namely Splatoon and XC3. Honestly, j imagine we can add SV to that list. 2024 at the earliest should be more reasonable and 2025 would be more ideal. In those scenarios would have already crossed 140m.
Why no Zelda? If Switch's successor is next year I would say it's because of Zelda BoTW 2. Also Switch is hitting 140 no matter the successors launch.
why not Zelda? that's launching next year too. and gaasy games outlive the hardware if timed to do so. it's a non-issue that a lot of games are getting dlc. that just means they can patch those games to play better on new hardware. XC3 and Pokemon in 4K/60 would be a big selling point.
I'm of the opinion that BOTW 2 will be a Switch exclusive and launch with a new Switch model (not successor).
I feel like it will still be a Q1 launch for the game and I can't see Nintendo hitting their forecast without a new model. I've ruled out Holiday 2022 for a new model, so I that's why I think we will get a Switch model in Q1 along with BOTW 2.
What is even the difference between a new switch model and a successor?
Are you serious?
Same difference between DSi and 3DS.
Also: PS4 Pro vs PS5, GBC vs GBA, Xbox One X vs Xbox Series X, etc.
The next Switch being a Pro model vs a next-gen successor definitely matters.
so a proper successor?
yes. I always ask this question when I see statements like that because given what we know from stolen data, it would fit most people's definition of a "sucessor". so when I see people delineating a "Pro" and a "2", I'm always curious as to what that difference is, and usually folks tend to not acknowledge the known info when making these comments
There is no real difference between a Pro or successor, they will come at the same time, contain the same hardware, run the same software. The only difference is something imagined by us. Even if they call the next Switch "Pro" and it allows for software to be exclusive, it's really a successor, and if they release a console and it is not allowed to have exclusive software, that's a crazy course for them to pursue this late so I don't think they will, since it will greatly handicap their ability to get 3P support.
Surely after what happened with the wii U just last gen the importance of branding can’t be overlooked.
Nintendo mentioned Spring 2023 so Q1 seems out of the question. Their spring titles are usually more Q2 releases. I do believe it will be delayed again to launch alongside the successor. Also new model right after the holiday season? Forecast isn't in danger yet 3.5, 4, 10, and 3.5 is 21 million. Which quarter is in danger of missing my figures?
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The last spring title was Kirby Forgotten Land, the internal release goal is probably Q1 again but they didnt want to commit to it due to not wanting to delay the game again which would make their stock go down again.
Yeah I forgot Nintendo has a pattern of including late March games as Spring, which is correct Spring does start late March. I can't see Zelda being released in March though unless they start hyping Zelda in the next direct in September maybe.
I could definitely see them start hyping Zelda in September. They probably would've done a trailer in June if E3 was still a thing. Since E3 didn't happen this year, they didn't see a reason to have a trailer in June, I guess. Also doesn't help that it might take away hype from recent games, namely XC3. At the latest, I see us getting a trailer at the Game Awards. If Zelda misses Q1, I can't imagine what Nintendo could have for Q1, nor can I imagine how they'd reach their forecast.
DSi was not a proper successor to the DS and that is more or less what I am expecting from a new Switch model. For me, Pro is basically nothing more than a placeholder name. I would actually hate if a new Switch model is called Switch Pro since they have the Switch Pro Controller.
well, there's no evidence of a Pro-style model and verifiable evidence of a successor-like model. so you don't have to worry about any dsi-like upgrade
Was there any evidence of the Switch OLED before it was revealed? I remember everyone swore up and down that we were getting a Switch Pro revealed at that E3. Nothing happened at E3 and then about a month later we got a Switch model with an OLED screen.
Q1 2023. What could they have if not Zelda? How are they going to hit 3.5? Also, I wouldn't be too surprised if Jul-Sep and Oct-Dec are slightly lower from the numbers you posted. I'd love if they could hit those numbers though. I do expect Jul-Sep to be higher than Apr-Jun and I also at least expect Holiday 2022 to be higher than Holiday 2018.
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A new revision that used still X1 with bigger screen was datamined already back in early 2020.
yes. Aula was in the firmware for like a year prior to the model's reveal. and that explicitly said "new screen". the E3 thing came from Mochizuki, I think it was? he was the one who said that component makers are gearing up for a new system, which happened to be the OLED model. it's assumed he conflated his hardware sources and software sources to be talking about the same product when they weren't
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2D Mario or 2D/3D Donkey Kong could be a big Q1 game I suppose.
I think how the Wii U was marketed and portrayed did more harm than simply the name, and I think it would matter less for the Switch. However, if they were to call their next Switch the Switch Pro, that could cause some people to think that the Switch 2 or whatever is just around the corner and may slow their purchase. So I personally advocate for some other name like Switch 2 or Super Switch or whatever, but as long as it is clear that it is the next gen hardware and is capable of playing software that is not available on the previous Switches yet is fully backwards compatible, it could be branded anything I should think.
Edit: So that it is clear, what I am saying I don't think will happen is they release a Switch Pro in 2023 and then a year later release a successor. I just don't think Nintendo would do that at this stage.
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They hit 3.43 million Switchs with Switch Oled shortages this past quarter on the back of? 4 million with Xeno 3, Switch Oled Splatoon 3 themed console and Splatoon 3 this quarter on top of retailers preparing for the holiday season and 4 million doesn't sound that unreasonable. October is packed with content and Pokemon S/V along with it's themed console should give Switch a nice boost. We have no clue what type of Black friday deal they have planned this year either. As long as Oled shortages don't really hold them back, I don't see any of those figures being unattainable.
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The difference between a Pro and the Successor is the marketing positioning.
It sounds flippant, but marketing is destiny for product sales. Its not simply "successor will be better marketed" or "pro is less marketable", but the idea that the very label will affect how Nintendo approaches the marketing of it.
It sounds flippant, but marketing is destiny for product sales. Its not simply "successor will be better marketed" or "pro is less marketable", but the idea that the very label will affect how Nintendo approaches the marketing of it.
This indeed. If u do Pro, then it is not going to be a Must have for those who are still okay with Switch offering. However the moment u put it as "Next" Switch with 2. It put far more enthusiasm from not only the buyers but also sellers as they have a brand new stuff that is worth pushing at all cost.
Then, we are going to get NEW Switch OLED. Everyone sure going to love that baby
I would have agreed with this statement like 2 years ago but every more powerful Switch they release atp will be seen as the Switch 2, no matter how Nintendo markets it.
Only people like us who spent hours on message boards discussing this will even care about the difference in positioning. Everyone else is gonna see the massive hardware jump plus price difference and see what's up.
Nintendo can only market it as a Pro/Revision by actively downplaying the system and selling for relatively cheap, don't see it happening. They would have to Wii U Drake which just isn't realistic.
I like, NoU Switch better.
You deserve pain.
I'm sure Nintendo won't repeat the mistakes of WiiU (famous last words), also it should be noted the Switch audience is different from the Wii userbase, they also have eShop & the Switch dashboard to promote it directly to active users. Fact that Nintendo Direct is now the go to place for news means they can better control the message. But here are some (bad) ideas just in case:
Star Trek - 'Switch 2: The Next Generation'. It'll make nerds feel clever while treating them like idiots by spelling everything out at interminable length...just like Star Trek. 'deep Switch nine!'
Light Novel - 'THE BEST SWITCH! I was hit by a truck-kun full of next gen Switch hardware & was sent to another world, but I was fine because I'm still able to continue playing the latest Nintendo games on the new console with my
Salvador Dali - 'Super NEW Switch!' - its both clear & confusing at the same time, is it new like New 3DS or new as in a New Generation? Nobody knows, not even Nintendo! My personal fav.
CAPCOM - 'Switch Hunter' - seems only fitting as this is what millions of people will be doing with all the hardware shortages. 'MegaSwitch' is also possible, as is 'Street Switch' & 'Switch Planet'.
Square Enix - 'Second Switch - for the Mario Kart Sequel'. I'd also accept 'The 3rd Switch' omitting the second one altogether like it never happened. 'Switch Fantasy' as you'll never find one.
While obviously we will have a better view on Nov, 8th, I think the Switch has a decent chance to beat its record again this year, even without Zelda. Splatoon has been a great success so far and Scarlet/Violet has a shot at selling 20-22 million this fiscal year. The increase in OLED sales share might make any prediction a bit dicey tough, since we don't know exactly what the profit per unit is (but should be at least comparable to the one in the original Switch). On top of that, there is the recent decrease in software sales in the US. But all in all, I am rather optimistic.I've improved most of my graphs in the past few days so I'm taking the opportunity to update this one
Annual net profit
Needless to say, with their strongest Q1 to date they'll completely smash through their forecast. The record might even be broken once again, probably depending on the release date of BotW2.
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Man I dunno, given how insanely big and successful the Switch has been, the idea of a “Switch 2” gets me hype lol.
But if they come up with a nice new name to go along with a cool gimmick, im also for it.
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Sorry to resurrect this, but the difference is not entirely imagined by us or even marketing, it's also reflected in how Nintendo discusses their own hardware. The Game Boy Color debate, for example, is mostly resolved because Nintendo themselves do not consider it a separate segment from the original Game Boy when tallying hardware and software sales.
And I fear that will be the only thing that ends this dubiously-motivated debate once and for all, the first quarterly financial release after the new hardware launches where they either add this new hardware's sales to the tally for Switch or tally sales distinctly from it in all their public-facing records.
I would consider that point as one of marketing (but to investors). I mean to say, that it’s Schrödingers Switch. We are outside talking about if the Switch in the box is a pro or successor, and it will be treated one way or another only when the box is opened, but while it is still in the box all it’s current parameters are meaningless and unknowable by us(this Switch’s marketing is also in the box). They could even give us a curveball, they could call it a two/successor and have a dedicated library of software for it but combine it in their reporting just as Switch, since there really no rules about what is what and it’s is all made up as we go (some people disagree with Nintendos categorization or the Color to this date).