Nintendo FY3/2022 Q3 Earnings Release, Switch Hardware Q3 - 10.67M ( -7.78% YoY), 103.54M LTD

[memoryCardFull]

125m might be reached by the end of the year. It is "only" 21,5m units away.

But chip shortage will continue at least for all 2023 and maybe 2024, right?
And from what I'm reading, even Nintendo will inevitably be affected by this, at this point.

That's why I wrote about more years, in fact (3 is an exaggeration, maybe 2?)
Sorry if it wasn't clear.

How are there still takes like this? No console has ever fallen off a cliff that hard. It will hit around that in the next ONE year.

As said above, I was thinking of current chip shortage, which is unprecedented in industry.
Thank you for your passive aggressiveness, I see that your cheerful mood didn't change from the previous times in the old forum

 

[Lelouch0612]

But chip shortage will continue at least for all 2023 and maybe 2024, right?
And from what I'm reading, even Nintendo will inevitably be affected by this, at this point.

That's why I wrote about more years, in fact (3 is an exaggeration, maybe 2?)
Sorry if it wasn't clear.

Nintendo is impacted by shortages yes but they are also able to produce a large number of console.

To give you an idea, in two pandemics years, they sold around 50m Switch. So around 25m/year.

So basically, even if they sell a bit less than in 2021, they'll still reach the 125m units you mentionned. Two years would mean that sales would drop to 11m/year which would be a disaster for Nintendo and well below their production capacities.

I hope it is clear but feel free to ask any other question you may have if it is not !

 

[ILikeFeet]

But chip shortage will continue at least for all 2023 and maybe 2024, right?

depending on who you ask, well into the second half of the decade

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

How are there still takes like this? No console has ever fallen off a cliff that hard. It will hit around that in the next ONE year.

Unlikely, but it happens. On March 31, 2010, DS had just shipped 27.11 million for the previous year. Over the next three years it shipped not quite 25 million total.

 

[awng782]

Unlikely, but it happens. On March 31, 2010, DS had just shipped 27.11 million for the previous year. Over the next three years it shipped not quite 25 million total.

That's because the 3DS launched just a year later before the end of March 2011.

 

[RennanNT]

That's because the 3DS launched just a year later before the end of March 2011.

And because it was announced 12 months earlier. And because Nintendo put all their efforts on making the 3DS successful.

It still doesn't means the same couldn't happen with the Switch, even if most people aren't expecting that to happen (including me, btw).

 

[D.Lo]

Unlikely, but it happens. On March 31, 2010, DS had just shipped 27.11 million for the previous year. Over the next three years it shipped not quite 25 million total.

3DS was announced March 23, 2010.

But fair enough. I would say DS was deliberately replaced rather than fell off a cliff, the latter meaning demand collapses naturally.

 

[HK-47]

Would Among Us actually be a part of the total software number now that it has had a retail release?

 

[jacotol]

For reference:

Sony's footnote about PlayStation software revenue



Nintendo doesn't exactly report on software revenue like Sony does. This two slides are the closest we get

Are you sure? Honestly I don't see anything that clarifies it, in those tables, I think that in the videogames segment includes everything (separating switch and other platforms), in the text that speaks about royalties, taking into account that is included in the mobile and the speech category of "ip related income" it sounds rather like the benefits they receive from other fields (such as the sales of the legos of nintendo or the hot wheels nintendo), but i don´t see anything about revenue from third party software

 

[Aime]

 

[JackAvery]

Sharing updated graphs for the ones I create each quarter for my Dutch overview:

While the numbers seem decent enough when you frame them how Nintendo presents them (April to December), Q3 really stands out in a very positive way compared year-on-year.

Also very curious about the reported sell-through. Animal Crossing and Mario Kart 8 are (unexpectedly) still in beast mode. Wondering if Skyward Sword HD and Metroid will manage to ship much more than they have right now.

 

[DarkDetective]

How covid has boosted Nintendo's digital income... more than 100% growth in two years (for fiscal Q3, at least, but probably for the full year too?).

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

If I’m not mistaken, with the R&D it’s a bit more fuzzy since they spend that very high allotment for market research, hardware research that is divided more into peripheral/ accessories for the existing product, research that includes replacing parts of the existing product silently, new models of existing hardware (differentiate the platform) and next generation hardware, software research for future game titles and online services, etc.

So the mention of Switch release and Switch Lite probably doesn’t do much for relaying info. Unless you meant to use those as time frames? Though I could be wrong. Maybe I’m just curious on the mention of those specifically.

 

[K samedi]

Switch has yet to see a price cut. I think the DS is in sight and Switch will probably sell significant numbers for a another 4 to 5 years. I can see Nintendo do 40 million in the next 9 quarters and with price cuts sell +5 million per year for another 3 years.

 

[Islander]

Nintendo recently started disclosing what percentage of their digital sales corresponds to packaged (retail) software, so here's a visualization of that data.

Edit: replaced with something clearer.

 

[m051293]

From the Q&A

Q3: What is the status of Nintendo Switch hardware production and sales? While I think shipments were high in the third quarter (October-December), I feel that shipments to the US were a bit weak. Is this because there was a delay in logistics? Also, do you see any different trends in material procurement for the next fiscal year?

A3 Furukawa: With regard to the production and sales of Nintendo Switch hardware, we were able to produce enough to meet demand during the first half (April to September), and we have enough inventory in stores around the world. As for the situation by region from October onward, including the holiday season when sales are at their peak, although Nintendo Switch (OLED model) is temporarily in short supply in Japan and Europe, production and supply of hardware was sufficient to balance supply and demand for the entire Nintendo Switch family. In the U.S., however, there was a shortage of hardware from the third week of November (Thanksgiving) onward, and in December the supply was unable to meet demand.

We have been reporting since the beginning of the fiscal year that the future is uncertain due to the tight supply and demand for semiconductor components, but there is no sign of any major changes in 2022, and the same situation will continue. Even under these circumstances, we were able to sell the same level of hardware during last year's holiday season as the previous year thanks to the cooperation of our partners. We would like to express our sincere gratitude to all of our partners for their cooperation. In the future, we will continue to produce as much hardware as possible and strive to supply enough to meet demand.

 

[BTB123]

Would Among Us actually be a part of the total software number now that it has had a retail release?

Good question. Are they counting the total sales of games with a limited retail release?

 

[dean_rcg]

do we know how big the war chest is?

 

[fiendcode]

Good question. Are they counting the total sales of games with a limited retail release?

We don't know. They might only count digital if retail's day one, if it's wide distro (aka: no LRG, SLG, EAS, etc) or maybe they only count digital from the point of retail launch and not retroactively count all digital. Minecraft, Hades, Human Fall Flat, Hollow Knight, Stardew Valley, Celeste, Undertale, Ori 1-2 and lots of huge digital games on Switch fall under this category.

It's unfortunate too as indie sales tend to disproportionately favor Switch. On Era some argued digital only sales weren't significant due to it being revealed how low they were on PS4 when Sony changed accounting methods and backdated numbers (it averaged around 10-15% of total sales iirc) but I suspect the numbers are far higher on Switch when every other indie or retro/remastered game you hear about on Switch sells multiple times over the other consoles.

 

[Aleh]

I don’t think Nintendo is lying when it says the Switch is still around the mid point of its life. They know with shortages it makes no sense to launch a successor and the momentum is still amazing. They can easily sell more Switches next FY than they sold in their second full FY, it’s not an issue to be past the peak, it’s just natural. That way they can really take their sweet time making sure the full successor is both a huge jump in tech and can release with the proper software and in a more favorable manufacturing period.

 

[fiendcode]

I wonder if we could see another TX1 die shrink/revision yet? I feel like Nintendo's still not done with formfactor/function Switch models (Lite OLED, docked only micro/stick) and maybe there's even space for another die shrink with actual spec improvements this time (upclocks, more ram, bigger storage) before Dane brings the real generational transition with DLSS/RTX?

 

[LoneRanger]

2017-2019: early life cycle
2020-2022: mid life cycle
2023-2025: late life cycle

this doesn’t mean switch HW will launched by 2025 but switch will very likely still get software releases until the end of FY 2025/26. Of course, they will next-gen only games but also a good amount of cross-gen releases.

 

[DarkDetective]

I think the Switch won't leave its "mid life cycle" by Furukawa's definition until its successor is announced or launched.

 

[storres]

The "Switch is in the mid life cycle" is the new Switch won't replace the 3DS until it did.

 

[Pooroomoo]

I think the Switch won't leave its "mid life cycle" by Furukawa's definition until its successor is announced or launched.

Yes, that is my impression as well. While before Switch they may have tried to always have one console still in its "mid life" while phasing out the other one that reached its "declining" stage, this is technically no longer possible as there is only one, so imo the moment they feel Switch is actually past or about to pass its mid life, that's when they introduce or launch Switch next.

 

[JackAvery]

If I’m not mistaken, with the R&D it’s a bit more fuzzy since they spend that very high allotment for market research, hardware research that is divided more into peripheral/ accessories for the existing product, research that includes replacing parts of the existing product silently, new models of existing hardware (differentiate the platform) and next generation hardware, software research for future game titles and online services, etc.

So the mention of Switch release and Switch Lite probably doesn’t do much for relaying info. Unless you meant to use those as time frames? Though I could be wrong. Maybe I’m just curious on the mention of those specifically.

Back when I added those two timestamps in 2020, the intention was to suggest R&D increases partially correlating with preparation of new model releases. It turned out to be a weak theory so take it with a mountain of salt. You're completely right that R&D is a bit "fuzzy" in terms of the variation of topics to which R&D budget is being spent. If i'm not mistaken even software development is also included in here?

Anyway, this made me realise that I should probably just add the OLED release in there for consistency's sake.

 

[meatbag]

It's unfortunate too as indie sales tend to disproportionately favor Switch. On Era some argued digital only sales weren't significant due to it being revealed how low they were on PS4 when Sony changed accounting methods and backdated numbers (it averaged around 10-15% of total sales iirc) but I suspect the numbers are far higher on Switch when every other indie or retro/remastered game you hear about on Switch sells multiple times over the other consoles.

We’ve also heard how much easier it is for indie devs to coordinate with Nintendo compared to Sony. And there’s also the inherent appeal of not having to lug around carts for your portable.

 

[Skittzo]

It's unfortunate too as indie sales tend to disproportionately favor Switch. On Era some argued digital only sales weren't significant due to it being revealed how low they were on PS4 when Sony changed accounting methods and backdated numbers (it averaged around 10-15% of total sales iirc) but I suspect the numbers are far higher on Switch when every other indie or retro/remastered game you hear about on Switch sells multiple times over the other consoles.

Not to mention that Switch already has a significantly larger library overall than the PS4 had, even if the majority of the ~6000+ digital only games only sell a few hundred or thousand units each that's still a huge amount of unit sales unaccounted for.

 

[MysticGon]

PS4 and Game Boy will be dealt with next fiscal year. They just released a new model so 2022 they'll just have to let the games do the talking. The tie ratio at nearly 10 for this year is great.

Also officially outselling Nintendo 3DS and Wii U combined is the cherry on top.

 

[Lelouch0612]

I think the Switch won't leave its "mid life cycle" by Furukawa's definition until its successor is announced or launched.

Yeah I don't see a scenario where they would say that the Switch is at the end of its life without a successor being announced.

 

[tentacle-tropes]

I wonder if we could see another TX1 die shrink/revision yet? I feel like Nintendo's still not done with formfactor/function Switch models (Lite OLED, docked only micro/stick) and maybe there's even space for another die shrink with actual spec improvements this time (upclocks, more ram, bigger storage) before Dane brings the real generational transition with DLSS/RTX?

I don’t think it would be worth it to die shrink the TX1 at this point. The only other version they could release is a console only one @200$, same as Lite, using docked profile no boost. If they did clock boost it then it would probably be what we see from overclocked Switches. The time for that type of revision has passed and it would probably be better to release the Dane in the next 1-3yrs (2022-24)

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

Back when I added those two timestamps in 2020, the intention was to suggest R&D increases partially correlating with preparation of new model releases. It turned out to be a weak theory so take it with a mountain of salt. You're completely right that R&D is a bit "fuzzy" in terms of the variation of topics to which R&D budget is being spent. If i'm not mistaken even software development is also included in here?

Anyway, this made me realise that I should probably just add the OLED release in there for consistency's sake.

Yup, they do include software development into that. Recently they had a large sum set for software development but it seemed like it wasn’t only their first party software but also software from their partners to make for the switch platform. So a game by capcom for example. And cloud May also be apart of this R&D expidenture.

 

[Luminoth 4545]

The Top 50 Nintendo Software has seen a bit of movement after Q3. To illustrate this the first chart is the top 50 as of September 30, 2021 and the next is the top 50 as of 31 December, 2021.

 

[BTB123]

The Top 50 Nintendo Software has seen a bit of movement after Q3. To illustrate this the first chart is the top 50 as of September 30, 2021 and the next is the top 50 as of 31 December, 2021.

I thought Pokemon G/S was at 23.7M

 

[Luminoth 4545]

I thought Pokemon G/S was at 23.7M

Some sources say 23.1m and some say 23.7m, i went with just went with 23.1m.

 

[BTB123]

Some sources say 23.1m and some say 23.7m, i went with just went with 23.1m.

Pokémon

Pokémon is a role-playing video game franchise developed by Game Freak and published by Nintendo. The entire media franchise is managed by The Pokémon Company, founded by Game Freak, Nintendo and Creatures Inc. The first video game released in 1996 in Japan, for the Game Boy. The franchise...

vgsales.fandom.com

This site gives the CESA Games White Paper as source for 23.73M.

 

[Luminoth 4545]

Pokémon

Pokémon is a role-playing video game franchise developed by Game Freak and published by Nintendo. The entire media franchise is managed by The Pokémon Company, founded by Game Freak, Nintendo and Creatures Inc. The first video game released in 1996 in Japan, for the Game Boy. The franchise...

vgsales.fandom.com

This site gives the CESA Games White Paper as source for 23.73M.

Wikipaedia says 23.1m but i will Edit and go with 23.73m in the 31st December 2021 chart. This bumps it up one place above Mario Kart DS into 17th position.

 

[BTB123]

The Top 50 Nintendo Software has seen a bit of movement after Q3. To illustrate this the first chart is the top 50 as of September 30, 2021 and the next is the top 50 as of 31 December, 2021.

I just noticed, in the updated chart some of the platforms weren't changed so that Galaxy is now a DS game for example.

 

[JackAvery]

Yup, they do include software development into that. Recently they had a large sum set for software development but it seemed like it wasn’t only their first party software but also software from their partners to make for the switch platform. So a game by capcom for example. And cloud May also be apart of this R&D expidenture.

The only source I remember right now regarding regular R&D expenses was an investor Q&A from last year:

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2021/210507e.pdf May 2021

Q4 - In recent years, research and development (R&D) expenses have been on the rise. What's the context for that? You're anticipating R&D expenses of nearly 100 billion yen this fiscal year, but could you give a general idea of what kind of development that is for?


A4 - Furukawa:
Our software development costs, which include outsourcing are increasing as we work to maintain a continuous stream of new titles for Nintendo Switch as it enters the middle of its lifecycle. Because per-title development costs are higher now than they were on past platforms, we anticipate that R&D expenses will continue to rise as we work to maintain a sizeable lineup of titles. We are also conducting a variety of studies, which include investigating ways to enhance our digital business, and future services that will help maintain long-term relationships with our consumers, as was touched on in the Corporate Management Policy Briefing last September. In addition, the development of the next generation of hardware needs to begin years before launch, so R&D expenses for that are gradually rising. We are aiming to grow by continuing our integrated hardware-software entertainment business, and that means conducting all sorts of research and development in various areas including both hardware and software.

It's plausible that some cloud research would be part of this, but I have never seen any indications for it.

As far as that "large sum", I do not know if these will show up in regular R&D or not. But you're referring to this I guess:

Off-topic: is there a reason the WYSIWYG editor on this forum does not work for me at all? The only way for me to use any BB code is writing it manually.

 

[Peleo]

The Top 50 Nintendo Software has seen a bit of movement after Q3. To illustrate this the first chart is the top 50 as of September 30, 2021 and the next is the top 50 as of 31 December, 2021.

By System:
NES: 3 (6%)
SNES: 1 (2%)
N64: 1 (2%)
GC: 0 (0%)
Wii: 9 (18%)
WiiU: 0 (0%)
GB: 6 (12%)
GBA: 2 (4%)
DS: 9 (18%)
3DS: 7 (14%)
Switch: 12 (24%)

By type of System:
Consoles: 14 (28%)
Handheld: 24 (48%)
Hybrid: 12 (24%)

By Franchise:
Mario: 18 (36%)
Pokemon: 14 (28%)
Wii: 5 (10%)
Animal Crossing: 3 (6%)
Smash Bros: 2 (4%)
Brain Age: 2 (4%)
Zelda/Splatoon/Tetris/Duck Hunt/Ring Fit Adventure/Nintendogs: 6 (12%)

As far as other games I think could get there by the end of Switch's life, I would probably add:

Mario Party All-Stars 5.43
Luigi's Mansion 3: 11.04
Pokemon Legends Arceus: ~6.5
Super Mario 3D World Bowsers Fury: 8.85 (pending on when the next 3D Mario drops)
Splatoon 3: TBA
Zelda BotW 2: TBA
Pokemon Gen 9: TBA

And then 3D Mario, 2D Mario and Mario Kart X, in case Nintendo ends up releasing them

 

[DarkDetective]

Off-topic: is there a reason the WYSIWYG editor on this forum does not work for me at all? The only way for me to use any BB code is writing it manually.

Please check out this post (and the two above it in the thread):

If the toggle button is the only 'highlighted' button, then you're in the mode that requires BBcode. If the toggle button has the same color as the other buttons, then those other buttons should work as well, and things like Ctrl+B, Ctrl+I, Ctrl+U, etc too.

 

[D.Lo]

We don't know. They might only count digital if retail's day one, if it's wide distro (aka: no LRG, SLG, EAS, etc) or maybe they only count digital from the point of retail launch and not retroactively count all digital. Minecraft, Hades, Human Fall Flat, Hollow Knight, Stardew Valley, Celeste, Undertale, Ori 1-2 and lots of huge digital games on Switch fall under this category.

It's unfortunate too as indie sales tend to disproportionately favor Switch. On Era some argued digital only sales weren't significant due to it being revealed how low they were on PS4 when Sony changed accounting methods and backdated numbers (it averaged around 10-15% of total sales iirc) but I suspect the numbers are far higher on Switch when every other indie or retro/remastered game you hear about on Switch sells multiple times over the other consoles.

Yeah I wish there was transparency on it. Nintendo is so much clearer with their data, but just has those missing things sometimes too.

 

[ReddDreadtheLead]

The only source I remember right now regarding regular R&D expenses was an investor Q&A from last year:


It's plausible that some cloud research would be part of this, but I have never seen any indications for it.

As far as that "large sum", I do not know if these will show up in regular R&D or not. But you're referring to this I guess:

Off-topic: is there a reason the WYSIWYG editor on this forum does not work for me at all? The only way for me to use any BB code is writing it manually.

I believe they do, on page 16 of the annual report, they included software into this:

Research and development activities
Nintendo primarily engages in the active development of hardware and software for dedicated video game systems, with support from various companies and organizations, in its effort to put smiles on the faces of everyone Nintendo touches around the world by offering new and compelling products that anyone can enjoy. We also undertake the planning, development and operation of games that many people around the world can enjoy in the form of smart- device applications.
With respect to hardware, we continuously investigate and undertake research on fundamental technologies spanning data storage technology such as semiconductor memory, display technology such as liquid crystal displays, and electronic components, while we also carry out research and development activities to examine the applicability of various technologies including interfaces such as touch panels and sensors, wireless communication, networks, security, cloud computing, virtual reality, deep learning and big data analysis to the field of home entertainment. Our efforts are not limited to in-house studies and research in that we are also exploring various possibilities on a daily basis to discover technologies that will help create new ways to play by proactively turning our attention outside Nintendo. Moreover, we continue to enhance the durability, safety, quality and performance of our products to ensure that consumers can comfortably enjoy them over an extended period, as well as design and develop various accessories, and pursue cost-cutting and energy conservation initiatives.
With respect to software, we are focusing on taking full advantage of hardware features in planning our products, designing games whose elements include graphics, music and game scripts, and developing programs.
Furthermore, in order to deal with digital business expansion, we have strongly driven the expansion of system infrastructure that supports various networking functions of software and multi-sectorial network services such as Nintendo eShop.
In addition, we have established the research and development structure for smart-device software to promote the planning and development of smart-device application software and the development of a back-end server system.
In terms of our component procurement and manufacturing processes, we, with the cooperation and support of our manufacturing partners, continuously research and accumulate relevant technical know-how on mass production of components using new test methods and technologies, and also comply with relevant regulations.
Research and development expenses for the fiscal year were ¥84.1 billion (USD 778 million), with the outcomes of major research and development activities described below. Segment information is omitted since we operate as a single business segment.
For Nintendo Switch hardware, we not only launched a new model of Nintendo Switch with longer battery life, the dedicated handheld Nintendo Switch Lite, and various special hardware editions and color variations, but also updated the firmware and released accessories (e.g., Super Nintendo Entertainment System Controller, a carry case for Nintendo Switch Lite). We released compatible software including Ring Fit Adventure, a new endeavor that enables players to enjoy exercising while playing an adventure game by using the Ring-Con—a ring-shaped controller made of special material that bounces back like a spring—and wearing the Leg Strap on the left thigh to recognize body movements, and Nintendo Labo: VR Kit, a new addition to the Nintendo Labo series. In terms of evergreen series, we released Animal Crossing: New Horizons, the latest installment in the Animal Crossing series in which players can enjoy life as they wish on a desert island while they experience time changes during the day in real-time as well as the changing of the seasons, in addition to Luigi’s Mansion 3, Super Mario Maker 2, Fire Emblem: Three Houses, and Dr Kawashima’s Brain Training for Nintendo Switch.
On the mobile business front, we released Dr. Mario World, a new action puzzle game based on the puzzle game, Dr. Mario, and Mario Kart Tour, a Mario Kart title that players can enjoy playing with one hand. For Mario Kart Tour, which is distributed in 163 countries and played even by consumers who do not normally play games on dedicated video game platforms, we introduced a multiplayer function in the update after its release, providing players with a means to invite their families and friends around them to play the game together. Following Mario Kart Tour, we launched a subscription service for Fire Emblem Heroes and Animal Crossing: Pocket Camp and introduced a way to enable an even wider range of consumers to continuously enjoy the game.
Furthermore, for Nintendo Account, an account necessary when using various services provided by Nintendo, we expanded the number of countries and regions where the services are available. In addition, we started offering Super NES - Nintendo Switch Online, which is packed with Super Nintendo Entertainment System games, and Super Kirby Clash, in which four Kirbys team up and engage in battle together. For Nintendo Switch Online applications for smart devices, we continue to expand functions for Animal Crossing: New Horizons.
We further expanded the lineup for amiibo.
In addition, on Nintendo Developer Portal, a dedicated website for game creators working on Nintendo platforms, we offer ongoing support for game creators, including individuals, to deliver new entertainment to users around the world.
Moreover, we are working on the development of a new product that improves people’s QOL (Quality of Life) in enjoyable ways.
Nintendo continues to engage in the development of new products for the future.

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2020/annual2003e.pdf

 

[HK-47]

The Top 50 Nintendo Software has seen a bit of movement after Q3. To illustrate this the first chart is the top 50 as of September 30, 2021 and the next is the top 50 as of 31 December, 2021.

FireRed/LeafGreen, Super Mario 64, SML 2, HG/SS, SMG =( and Wild World are all getting knocked off in the next two years. Splatoon 3, MP Superstars, Bowser’s Fury, LM3, Arceus and BotW 2 (assuming it isn’t cross gen) will all knock those off.

 

[Luminoth 4545]

I just noticed, in the updated chart some of the platforms weren't changed so that Galaxy is now a DS game for example.

Changed them, thanks for pointing it out.

 

[Luminoth 4545]

By System:
NES: 3 (6%)
SNES: 1 (2%)
N64: 1 (2%)
GC: 0 (0%)
Wii: 9 (18%)
WiiU: 0 (0%)
GB: 6 (12%)
GBA: 2 (4%)
DS: 9 (18%)
3DS: 7 (14%)
Switch: 12 (24%)

By type of System:
Consoles: 14 (28%)
Handheld: 24 (48%)
Hybrid: 12 (24%)

By Franchise:
Mario: 18 (36%)
Pokemon: 14 (28%)
Wii: 5 (10%)
Animal Crossing: 3 (6%)
Smash Bros: 2 (4%)
Brain Age: 2 (4%)
Zelda/Splatoon/Tetris/Duck Hunt/Ring Fit Adventure/Nintendogs: 6 (12%)

As far as other games I think could get there by the end of Switch's life, I would probably add:

Mario Party All-Stars 5.43
Luigi's Mansion 3: 11.04
Pokemon Legends Arceus: ~6.5
Super Mario 3D World Bowsers Fury: 8.85 (pending on when the next 3D Mario drops)
Splatoon 3: TBA
Zelda BotW 2: TBA
Pokemon Gen 9: TBA

And then 3D Mario, 2D Mario and Mario Kart X, in case Nintendo ends up releasing them

Wow, at the end of Switch's life more than one third of the top 50 will be Switch games.

 

[Luminoth 4545]

FireRed/LeafGreen, Super Mario 64, SML 2, HG/SS, SMG =( and Wild World are all getting knocked off in the next two years. Splatoon 3, MP Superstars, Bowser’s Fury, LM3, Arceus and BotW 2 (assuming it isn’t cross gen) will all knock those off.

Also Super Mario Odyssey 2 and Mario Kart 9 will knock out another 2 if they ever come to Switch and we also can't discount there being another Mario party coming to switch.

 

[HK-47]

I don’t think those will be Switch. And I’m only talking about stuff we know about.

 

[JackAvery]

I believe they do, on page 16 of the annual report, they included software into this:

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2020/annual2003e.pdf

I completely forgot about that, but I have to say that I always considered those first paragraphs somewhat a "catch-all" description which do not necessarily indicate specific topics that are actively in development for commercial purposes. Still, maybe we'll see more than current cloud saves in the future


On a different topic, I noticed the regional differences this quarter (which apparently have already been discussed earlier in this topic), so decided to plot those out as well. All graphs in million units:

To me at least this supports the idea that European hardware sales were partially boosted by the permanent price cut because of Nintendo reappreciating the Yen-Euro exchange rates. Not only was Europe the only region with increasing hardware sales, but you can also see that the ratio between regular and OLED models sold is different in Europe, suggesting the price point mattered more. That said, there could be other explanations - perhaps Europe just got less OLED deliveries, or maybe Europeans bought less Switches during Q1 and Q2.

Interesting also to see that while we in Europe did buy more software, the sales increase isn't as steep as in the USA or Japan. Perhaps those new Switch customers who caved at the lower pricepoint, are a bit more casual in nature?

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

I don’t think it would be worth it to die shrink the TX1 at this point. The only other version they could release is a console only one @200$, same as Lite, using docked profile no boost.

The Lite is still pretty large compared to most pre-Switch portables from the mid-90s through the 2010s. I've got no interest in the tradeoffs of the Switch Lite, but if they were to make one that was as legitimately pocketable as a DS Lite I'd be interested.