Nintendo FY Q2 Predictions. Update: Results in the OP

[Luminoth 4545]

Nintendo's Fiscal year Q2 Earnings Report releases on Tuesday November 5th, So you have over a week to predict.

This thread will focus on a new releases this past quarter and other stated software as well as total global hardware and total software sold from July 1st to September 30th, 2024. Predictions close right up until Nintendo release their earnings report.

Let’s see who will have the best predictions…. Good luck to all…

New first party release was The Legend of Zelda: Echoes of Wisdom on September 26th. For comparison in 2019 Link's Awakening opened with 3.13 million units shipped but released on September 20th, giving it 11 days of sales versus just 5 days for Echoes of Wisdom.

Other predictions will be Paper Mario TTYD and Luigi's Mansion 2 HD plus the Top three selling Switch games Mario Kart 8 Deluxe, Animal Crossing: New Horizons and Super Smash Bros. Ultimate.

Here is Nintendo Switch's sales history for reference (millions of units).

Predict the following

(Anyone can add any bonus game of their choosing but it will not be featured in the main prediction table below )

I'll go first

[NSW HW] 2.07
[NSW SW] 32.26
[LOZ:EOW] 3.73
[TTYD] 0.39
[LM2HD] 0.71
[MK8D] 0.97
[ACNH] 0.46
[SSBU] 0.49


Prediction Table (units in millions)

Member	Hardware	Software	LOZ:EOW	PM:TTYD	LM2HD	MK8D	AC:NH	SSBU
Agazorth	2.00	31.00	3.50	0.20	0.40	0.80	0.40	0.40
awng782	2.10	34.56	3.21	0.36	0.54	0.95	0.51	0.43
Avitsky	2.25	34.45	3.56	0.29	0.69	1.15	0.49	0.59
BanjoKazooie1992	2.00	31.30	3.65	0.29	0.80	0.95	0.40	0.42
BoktaiFan	2.15	32.25	3.33	0.26	0.55	0.95	0.45	0.40
BTB123	1.95	32.10	3.40	0.35	0.60	0.91	0.42	0.38
Digikiki	1.99	30.39	3.09	0.29	0.49	0.99	0.39	0.39
Drblitzk	2.10	33.00	4.00	0.30	0.60	1.00	0.50	0.40
Eddy	2.23	34.34	3.91	0.45	0.69	1.08	0.47	0.46
ESCK Swiss	2.65	34.79	3.45	0.35	0.75	0.90	0.39	0.42
Extraiz	2.22	33.33	2.75	0.15	0.50	1.00	0.45	0.40
Fatih_656	2.10	33.50	2.95	0.35	0.66	0.88	0.40	0.41
FernandoRocker	2.12	33.00	2.90	0.34	0.65	0.85	0.38	0.40
fiendcode	2.10	32.10	3.45	0.34	0.67	0.98	0.45	0.34
Gimmick	1.95	30.00	3.20	0.42	0.82	0.90	0.42	0.45
johanto21	2.63	31.00	4.20	0.25	0.70	1.15	0.70	0.39
Josh5890	2.31	31.95	3.44	0.27	0.69	1.01	0.39	0.28
Kenka	1.88	25.70	2.86	0.31	0.52	0.81	0.36	0.39
Lelouche0612	2.22	35.00	3.88	0.29	0.80	1.11	0.40	0.40
Luminoth 4545	2.07	32.26	3.73	0.39	0.71	0.97	0.46	0.49
Malden	2.25	32.00	3.05	0.30	0.45	0.90	0.40	0.40
Maluigi	2.05	31.00	3.70	0.25	0.45	0.92	0.35	0.27
NinnyKirby	1.82	30.02	2.89	0.29	0.65	0.89	0.40	0.42
pierre485	2.10	31.00	3.50	0.25	0.70	0.95	0.50	0.45
POE	2.00	28.76	4.44	0.39	0.80	1.42	0.20	0.22
RavensShade	1.99	30.37	3.19	0.27	0.64	1.00	0.43	0.52
Sead	1.89	29.80	2.50	0.51	0.62	1.00	0.66	0.33
Sebbbbe	2.08	30.99	2.62	0.15	0.31	1.11	0.45	0.44
Sir Arthur	2.01	32.02	3.02	0.48	0.55	1.32	0.35	0.38
Tbone5189	2.89	32.10	4.11	0.28	0.66	1.11	0.75	0.44
Yomi	2.20	33.00	3.20	0.10	0.75	1.30	0.60	0.35
Z-Z0	2.33	35.50	3.30	0.44	0.66	1.01	0.51	0.41

Scoring method: You receive 5pts for being the most accurate, 4pts for second, 3pts for third, 2pts for fourth and 1pt for fifth.
if multiple members are the same distance from the correct number (either over or under) then they all get the points.

Point scorers

NSW Hardware - 2.62

5pts - johanto21 - 2.63
4pts - ESCK Swiss - 2.65
3pts - Tbone5189 - 2.89
2pts - Z-Z0 - 2.33
1pt - Josh5890 - 2.31

NSW Software - 39.64

5pts - Z-Z0 - 35.50
4pts - Lelouche0612 - 35.00
3pts - ESCK Swiss - 34.79
2pts - awng782 - 34.56
1pt - Avitsky - 34.45

The Legend of Zelda: Echoes of Wisdom - 2.58

5pts - Sebbbbe - 2.62
4pts - Sead - 2.50
3pts - Extraiz - 2.75
2pts - Kenka - 2.86
1pt - NinnyKirby - 2.89

Paper Mario: The Thousand Year Door - 0.18

5pts - Agazorth - 0.20
4pts - Extraiz, Sebbbe - 0.15
3pts - Johanto21, Maluigi, pierre485 - 0.25
2pts - BoktaiFan - 0.26, Yomi - 0.10
1pt - Josh5890 - 0.27

Luigi's Mansion 2 HD - 0.38

5pts - Agazorth - 0.40
4pts - Malden, Maluigi - 0.45, Sebbbe - 0.31
3pts - Digikiki - 0.49
2pts - Extraiz - 0.50
1pt - Kenka - 0.52

Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 1.37

5pts - POE - 1.42, Sir Arthur - 1.32
4pts - Yomi - 1.30
3pts - Avitsky, johanto21 - 1.15
2pts - Lelouche0612, Sebbbbe, Tbone5189 - 1.11
1pt - Eddy - 1.08

Animal Crossing: New Horizons - 0.60

5pts - Yomi - 0.60
4pts - Sead - 0.66
3pts - awng782, Z-Z0 - 0.51
2pts - johanto21 - 0.70, Drblitzk, pierre485 - 0.50
1pt - Avitsky - 0.49

Super Smash Bros. Ultimate - 0.48

5pts - Luminoth4545 - 0.49
4pts - Eddy - 0.46
3pts - Gimmick, pierre485 -0.45
2pts - RavensShade - 0.52, Sebbbbe, Tbone5189 - 0.44
1pt - awng782 - 0.43

Standings

If points are tied then the person with more placements ranks higher, if points and number of placements are the same then it's a tie.

Pos	Member	Total Pts	Hardware	Software	LOZ:EOW	PM:TTYD	LM2HD	MK8D	AC:NH	SSBU
1	Sebbbbe	17			5	4	4	2		2
2	johanto21	13	5			3		3	2
3	Yomi	11				2		4	5
4	Z-Z0	10	2	5					3
5	Agazorth	10				5	5
6	Extraiz	9			3	4	2
7	pierre485	8				3			2	3
8	Sead	8			4				4
9	Tbone5189	7	3					2		2
10	ESCK Swiss	7	4	3
10	Maluigi	7				3	4
12	awng782	6		2					3	1
13	Lelouche0612	6		4				2
14	Avitsky	5		1				3	1
15	Eddy	5						1		4
16	Luminoth4545	5								5
16	Sir Arthur	5						5
16	POE	5						5
19	Malden	4					4
20	Kenka	3			2		1
21	Digikiki	3					3
21	Gimmick	3								3
23	Josh5890	2	1			1
24	BoktaiFan	2				2
24	Drblitzk	2							2
24	RavensShade	2								2
27	NinnyKirby	1			1

Out of the 32 people that took part, 27 scored points. Well done to Sebbbbe who made the most accurate predictions. If you didn't score any points then may you have better luck next time and thanks to everyone who contributed.

 

[Gimmick]

[NSW HW] 1.95
[NSW SW] 30.00
[LOZ:EOW] 3.20
[TTYD] 0.42
[LM2HD] 0.82
[MK8D] 0.90
[ACNH] 0.42
[SSBU] 0.45

 

[Kenka]

[NSW HW] 1.88
[NSW SW] 25.70
[LOZ:EOW] 2.86
[TTYD] 0.31
[LM2HD] 0.52
[MK8D] 0.81
[ACNH] 0.36
[SSBU] 0.39

 

[sebbbbe]

[NSW HW] 2.08
[NSW SW] 30.99
[LOZ:EOW] 2.62
[TTYD] 0.15
[LM2HD] 0.31
[MK8D] 1.11
[ACNH] 0.45
[SSBU] 0.44

 

[Yomi]

[NSW HW] 2.20
[NSW SW] 33
[LOZ:EOW] 3.20
[TTYD] 0.10
[LM2HD] 0.75
[MK8D] 1.3
[ACNH] 0.60
[SSBU] 0.35

 

[Luminoth 4545]

To prove i haven't edited my predictions.

[NSW HW] 2.07
[NSW SW] 32.26
[LOZ:EOW] 3.73
[TTYD] 0.39
[LM2HD] 0.71
[MK8D] 0.97
[ACNH] 0.46
[SSBU] 0.49

 

[fiendcode]

[NSW HW] 2.10
[NSW SW] 32.10
[LOZ:EOW] 3.45
[TTYD] 0.34
[LM2HD] 0.67
[MK8D] 0.98
[ACNH] 0.45
[SSBU] 0.34

 

[BTB123]

Other predictions will be Paper Mario TTYD and Luigi's Mansion 2 HD plus the Top three selling Switch games Mario Kart 8 Deluxe, Animal Crossing: New Horizons and Super Smash Bros. Ultimate plus The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom.

So TotK isn't included?

[NSW HW] 1.95
[NSW SW] 32.1
[LOZ:EOW] 3.4
[TTYD] 0.35
[LM2HD] 0.6
[MK8D] 0.91
[ACNH] 0.42
[SSBU] 0.38

 

[Agazorth]

[NSW HW] 2.00
[NSW SW] 31.00
[LOZ:EOW] 3.50
[TTYD] 0.20
[LM2HD] 0.40
[MK8D] 0.80
[ACNH] 0.40
[SSBU] 0.40

 

[Extraiz]

[NSW HW] 2.22
[NSW SW] 33.33
[LOZ:EOW] 2.75
[TTYD] 0.15
[LM2HD] 0.50
[MK8D] 1.00
[ACNH] 0.45
[SSBU] 0.40

 

[Z-Z0]

[NSW HW] 2.33
[NSW SW] 35.5
[LOZ:EOW] 3.3
[TTYD] 0.44
[LM2HD] 0.66
[MK8D] 1.01
[ACNH] 0.51
[SSBU] 0.41

 

[Luminoth 4545]

So TotK isn't included?

[NSW HW] 1.95
[NSW SW] 32.1
[LOZ:EOW] 3.4
[TTYD] 0.35
[LM2HD] 0.6
[MK8D] 0.91
[ACNH] 0.42
[SSBU] 0.38

Correct, that is a mistake. There is no point including TOTK anymore because it is dead, only shipped 190K last quarter.

 

[Eddy]

[NSW HW] 2.23
[NSW SW] 34.34
[LOZ:EOW] 3.91
[TTYD] 0.45
[LM2HD] 0.69
[MK8D] 1.08
[ACNH] 0.47
[SSBU] 0.46

 

[BTB123]

Correct, that is a mistake. There is no point including TOTK anymore because it is dead, only shipped 190K last quarter.

Dang, dead already? Dang!

Sure I get it, there's no point in predicting these lower numbers.

 

[Josh5890]

[NSW HW] 2.31
[NSW SW] 31.95
[LOZ:EOW] 3.44
[TTYD] 0.27
[LM2HD] 0.69
[MK8D] 1.01
[ACNH] 0.39
[SSBU] 0.28

 

[Malden]

[NSW HW] 2.25M
[NSW SW] 32M
[LOZ:EOW] 3.05M
[TTYD] 0.3M
[LM2HD] 0.45M
[MK8D] 0.9M
[ACNH] 0.4M
[SSBU] 0.4M

"Aww [sheet] here we go again!"

1. MK8D - 62.8M (up 0.9M)
2. ACNH - 46.25M (up 0.4M)
3. SSBU - 35.06M (up 0.4M)
4. BotW - 32.07M (up 0.22M)
5. SMO - 28.7M (up 0.49M)
6. PSw/Sh - 26.45M (up 0.1M)
7. PS/V - 25.7M (up .41M)
8. SMP - 21.04M (up .2M)
9. TotK - 21.01M (up .21M)
10. NSMBUD - 18M (up .39M)

 

[Fatih_656]

[NSW HW] 2.1
[NSW SW] 33.5
[LOZ:EOW] 2.95
[TTYD] 0.35
[LM2HD] 0.66
[MK8D] 0.88
[ACNH] 0.40
[SSBU] 0.41

 

[Digikiki]

[NSW HW] 1.99
[NSW SW] 30.39
[LOZ:EOW] 3.09
[TTYD] 0.29
[LM2HD] 0.49
[MK8D] 0.99
[ACNH] 0.39
[SSBU] 0.39
9's the lucky number this time round. Just got a feeling.

 

[Maluigi]

[NSW HW] 2.05
[NSW SW] 31
[LOZ:EOW] 3.7
[TTYD] 0.25
[LM2HD] 0.45
[MK8D] 0.92
[ACNH] 0.35
[SSBU] 0.27

Maybe I‘m a bit pessimistic for the evergreens but I was too optimistic the last time.

 

[pierre485]

[NSW HW] 2.1
[NSW SW] 31
[LOZ:EOW] 3.5
[TTYD] 0.25
[LM2HD] 0.7
[MK8D] 0.95
[ACNH] 0.5
[SSBU] 0.45

I expect a slow quarter overall, with both hardware and software down ~30% vs last year.

 

[ESCK Swiss]

[NSW HW] 2.65
[NSW SW] 34.79
[LOZ:EOW] 3.45
[TTYD] 0.35
[LM2HD] 0.75
[MK8D] 0.90
[ACNH] 0.39
[SSBU] 0.42

 

[Lelouch0612]

Oh yeah not a lot of time left for this!

[NSW HW] 2.22
[NSW SW] 35.00
[LOZ:EOW] 3.88
[TTYD] 0.29
[LM2HD] 0.80
[MK8D] 1.11
[ACNH] 0.40
[SSBU] 0.40

 

[Banjokazooie1992]

[NSW HW] 2.00
[NSW SW] 31.3
[LOZ:EOW] 3.65
[TTYD] 0.29
[LM2HD] 0.80
[MK8D] 0.95
[ACNH] 0.40
[SSBU] 0.42

Also just for fun

[Mario Wonder] 1.51

 

[FernandoRocker]

[NSW HW] 2.12
[NSW SW] 33
[LOZ:EOW] 2.90
[TTYD] 0.34
[LM2HD] 0.65
[MK8D] 0.85
[ACNH] 0.38
[SSBU] 0.40

 

[Sead]

[NSW HW] 1.89
[NSW SW] 29,8
[LOZ:EOW] 2,5
[TTYD] 0.51
[LM2HD] 0.62
[MK8D] 1
[ACNH] 0,66
[SSBU] 0.33

 

[SirArthur]

[NSW HW] 2.01
[NSW SW] 32.02
[LOZ:EOW] 3.02
[TTYD] 0.48
[LM2HD] 0.55
[MK8D] 1.32
[ACNH] 0.35
[SSBU] 0.38

 

[Tbone5189]

[NSW HW] 2.89
[NSW SW] 32.10
[LOZ:EOW] 4.11
[TTYD] 0.28
[LM2HD] 0.66
[MK8D] 1.11
[ACNH] 0.75
[SSBU] 0.44

 

[FernandoRocker]

At what time can we expect numbers from Nintendo?

It is the 5th already in Japan

 

[Lelouch0612]

At what time can we expect numbers from Nintendo?

It is the 5th already in Japan

In about 6 hours if I am not mistaken.

 

[johanto21]

NSW HW] 2.63
[NSW SW] 31.00
[LOZ:EOW] 4.20
[TTYD] 0.25
[LM2HD] 0.70
[MK8D] 1.15
[ACNH] 0.70
[SSBU] 0.39

 

[BoktaiFan]

[NSW HW] 2.15
[NSW SW] 32.25
[LOZ:EOW] 3.33
[TTYD] 0.26
[LM2HD] 0.55
[MK8D] 0.95
[ACNH] 0.45
[SSBU] 0.40

 

[Drblitzk]

[NSW HW] 2.10
[NSW SW] 33.00
[LOZ:EOW] 4.00
[TTYD] 0.30
[LM2HD] 0.60
[MK8D] 1.00
[ACNH] 0.50
[SSBU] 0.40

Based on nothing, took me to the top the last 2Q lmao

 

[NinnyKirby]

[NSW HW] 1.82
[NSW SW] 30.02
[LOZ:EOW] 2.89
[TTYD] 0.29
[LM2HD] 0.65
[MK8D] 0.89
[ACNH] 0.40
[SSBU] 0.42

 

[awng782]

[NSW HW] 2.10
[NSW SW] 34.56
[LOZ:EOW] 3.21
[TTYD] 0.36
[LM2HD] 0.54
[MK8D] 0.95
[ACNH] 0.51
[SSBU] 0.43

 

[POE]

[NSW HW] 2.00
[NSW SW] 28.76
[LOZ:EOW] 4.44
[TTYD] 0.39
[LM2HD] 0.80
[MK8D] 1.42
[ACNH] 0.20
[SSBU] 0.22

 

[RavensShade]

[NSW HW] 1.99
[NSW SW] 30.37
[LOZ:EOW] 3.19
[TTYD] 0.27
[LM2HD] 0.64
[MK8D] 1.00
[ACNH] 0.43
[SSBU] 0.52

 

[Lelouch0612]

Any last minute prediction?

 

[Avitsky]

[NSW HW] 2,25
[NSW SW] 34.45
[LOZ:EOW] 3,56
[TTYD] 0,29
[LM2HD] 0,69
[MK8D] 1,15
[ACNH] 0,49
[SSBU] 0,59

 

[Drblitzk]

Way stronger hardware and software for the quarter than most of us were expecting (2.62 M and 39.64 M respectively).

 

[Luminoth 4545]

Results in the OP, if i made a mistake then please notify me.

 

[Luminoth 4545]

Way stronger hardware and software for the quarter than most of us were expecting (2.62 M and 39.64 M respectively).

Yes considerably higher than i expected and Mario kart as well, then most of the others underperformed. It was really a tough set of sales to predict, i was lucky to get any points.

 

[Lelouch0612]

Congrats to @sebbbbe !

 

[johanto21]

Wow! I did really great this time!
Thankyou Lumintoh 4545 for taking the time to do such a fantastic job ^_^
And congrats to Sebble for the win as well!

Regards!

 

[Pikachupwnage]

I forgot oops.

Congrats to Sebble.

 

[Digikiki]

9's the lucky number this time round. Just got a feeling.

Maybe 3 next time?

 

[Yomi]

Yeah, made it to the podium. Where's my prize?

 

[sebbbbe]

Oh wow, after I underestimated hardware and software hard I never thought I would score high points! My Zelda prediction saved me this time.

Thank you a lot @Luminoth 4545 for organizing, it's always a ton of fun!

(And excuse me for the late reply as I'm traveling through Taiwan and South Korea right now)

 

[Drblitzk]

Oh wow, after I underestimated hardware and software hard I never thought I would score high points! My Zelda prediction saved me this time.

Thank you a lot @Luminoth 4545 for organizing, it's always a ton of fun!

(And excuse me for the late reply as I'm traveling through Taiwan and South Korea right now)

Congrats and safe travels!