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Niko Partners: PS5 Pro to sell over 10M thanks to Asia and MENA; Market Shares in Asia sans Japan: PS4+5: 39.7%, Switch: 32.1%, XBS + One: 16.8%
- Thread starter Welfare
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I agree with you that lumping in 2013-2017 ps4 sales into this “market share” graph is very misleading about current market share in 2024…but:
I disagree in your conclusion here. It shows that active individual user engagement is still 50/50 between ps4/ps5…in 2024.
The number of gaming hours for April 2024 isn’t telling us that more gamers are engaged with the ps5 over the ps4. It’s telling us that individuals on the ps5 happened to spend more hours on it in April than individuals spent on the ps4 that month
That’s different.
It could be something as simple as Rise of Ronin and Steller Blade causing the existing ps5 userbase to spend more hours than usual gaming in April. Doesn’t mean overall engagement is higher in general.
(Hint: Sony cherry-picked April 2024 for a reason)
And this tells us that the PlayStation userbase has contracted since the ps5 released. The increase in revenue is because they are charging individual gamers more…not that more gamers are entering the market and investing in the ecosystem.
Compared to ps4 2013-2016…games are $70, greater monitization of dlc and microtransactions and expansions, higher psn investment etc
Psn+ was ~$4 a month. Now it’s $10-$18 a month.
That graph is also damning in showing that the ps5 userbase are buying far fewer games for their system than they were for the ps4. Despite having sold more hardware, launch aligned currently.
According to Sony, PS5 user base engagement is much higher than PS4 user base engagement.
I disagree in your conclusion here. It shows that active individual user engagement is still 50/50 between ps4/ps5…in 2024.
The number of gaming hours for April 2024 isn’t telling us that more gamers are engaged with the ps5 over the ps4. It’s telling us that individuals on the ps5 happened to spend more hours on it in April than individuals spent on the ps4 that month
That’s different.
It could be something as simple as Rise of Ronin and Steller Blade causing the existing ps5 userbase to spend more hours than usual gaming in April. Doesn’t mean overall engagement is higher in general.
(Hint: Sony cherry-picked April 2024 for a reason)
PS5 shows significant growth in spend per console. This growth is assured by services and add-on content (MTX).
And this tells us that the PlayStation userbase has contracted since the ps5 released. The increase in revenue is because they are charging individual gamers more…not that more gamers are entering the market and investing in the ecosystem.
Compared to ps4 2013-2016…games are $70, greater monitization of dlc and microtransactions and expansions, higher psn investment etc
Psn+ was ~$4 a month. Now it’s $10-$18 a month.
That graph is also damning in showing that the ps5 userbase are buying far fewer games for their system than they were for the ps4. Despite having sold more hardware, launch aligned currently.
It is total opposite. PS has always been absolutely dominant in Asia outside Japan. It is the Switch era that finally skew the bar there.(SEA context)
PS1-4 is console leader in that region in terms of HW. It is when Switch finally now come in, in the context of SEA that the pendulum begin to swing to Switch and Nintendo more. The problem with PS5 and why adaptation is slower is because of high price point that price fan out of the machine and software.
For South Asia and MEA, PS is certainly still king. Because Nintendo expansion to those region is still far miniscule.
If what retailers here in Indonesia said is true, from what i heard. game sellers(Big ones) certainly sees it as disappointment considering how the pace has far fallen behind PS4 which lead to them to restock less and less PS5 softwares as the userbase is not as huge as PS4 during its peak period. There is a reason why there is excitement for Switch 2 for sellers as well as fear if Nintendo will screw the pouch once more.
Sure Buddy, if you say so.
Ps5 will outsell Ps4 in China 2:1 and probably in all those countries but if believing that makes you sleep better please be my guess.
If we combined generations, Switch is never going to be at 60% in Japan as already said.
I think we need to clarify data first before anything.
I think we need to clarify data first before anything.
I don't think any big retailler is happy with PS5 worldwide.
Yes, it is because they said "over 60%".
Without combining generations for PS and XB it would be either "over 70%" or "over 80%".
I’m pretty sure everyone is expecting ps5 to sell less than the ps4 in every territory? It’s not just me lol. I’m going by the consensus of expectations, and recent history of data analysis.
We had a thread on here just the other day of Ampere analysis projecting 107 million lifetime ps5, Jim Ryan was similar with ~108 million.
That’s 9-10 million less.
You wanna say the ps5 is going to have a sharp decline in every territory on the planet but it will definitely double in some specific Asian country…lol go for it! Sleep well.
The PlayStation 5 is on track to outperform the PlayStation 4 by 100% in China. According to the article, the PlayStation 5 is proving to be much stronger in the Asian market than its predecessor.
While sales may vary by region—with some territories seeing fewer units sold and others more—the PlayStation 5 is ahead in places like the United States.
You're just spreading misinformation in bad faith and ignoring the facts. Consider this a warning—next time, you'll be added to my ignore list if possible.
The only conclusion then must be that Sony is collapsing in Europe because we know that the shipment numbers globally is below PS4.
If PS5 is so much better in Asia and USA some other region must be doing way worse.
Yes, the situation in Europe isn't ideal, but the brand remains very strong. Most people are still using the PlayStation 4, and the main issue is the price. The war in Ukraine has had a significant impact on the economy, making it harder for many to upgrade.
I live in Europe.
I also live in Europe, but I have a hard time seeing that PS5 collapsing that much here that it makes up for massive growth in SEA and modest growth in USA. It is not like PS4, as far as I know, was a failure in SEA.
So far in Spain it's like 1/3 of PlayStation 4, can it make it up? Depends on how agressive Sony will be.
Yes. Hell even till now Nintendo still don't consider indonesia exist despite 4 years of investment and growing distribution channel in SEA lol. Thats how behind Nintendo is in SEA. It is Switch own value and library that has pushed it this far in this region. If Switch 2 can hit decent launch price that does not push away all mainstream audience. It is certainly going to show growth in SEA once more.
Ehh.. I bet US retailer is happy with PS5 as PS5 is showing growth there. Can't said the same with Japan that get strucked with scalping problem, Europe and SEA overpricing though.
PS5 is not ahead in Europe though. While China may show growth. China is still small market in terms of console audience. So for PS5 to perform behind PS4 is still the safer bet if u ask me.
The article main focus on imporving sales is on MENA and China while for market share, they are talking about PS4+PS5 combined LTD sales. So the data is not talking about same thing.
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Chart is strange. What is the point of comparing PS4 + PS5 vs Switch?
Like in Japan, selling more hardware in the USA mean nothing if software did not follow.
Retailers margins on hardware are very low.
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PS5 is only behind by a couple million and we know EU is down by several millions.
Growth in US could be 2-5M
Growth in China could be 2-4M
Other SEA regions likely 2-4M
So we are looking at 6-13M in growth. EU is a huge region for PS, something like 30-40M so to counter that expected growth, something like a 20-25% decline is needed. Personally do not see the decline in EU being that.
the article is also based on a very big caveat, excluding the biggest market of the Asian countries
In Japan the console so far is ahead, compared to PS4 launch aligned, but is and pretty much WILL follow behind it now that the price increased (with the Pro probably being a non-factor over there)
And we know that JP numbers have been on par with PS4 for few years, primarily due to export phenomena
that is linked to an actual increase of interested compared to PS4, in China specifically, so you are right about that market
globally, if Japan will follow behind and being so bigger than other countries, PS5 could close its LT sales below PS4 over there too, as in EU (probably)
US on the contrary will surely be higher
Please don't do this.
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I will quote @Fisico from the other thread as I think it is the closest we will get to understanding these numbers:
"The hint to get what they mean by marketshare is to use the number mentionned for Japan since we have hard numbers there and they say NSW is "over" 60% (which also means it also has to be <70%)
If we use LTD numbers for Japan with the hardware mentioned
NSW : 34M
PS5 : 6M
PS4 : 9.5M
XBS : 400k
XB1 : >100k
That gives 50M, with NSW accounting for 68%, that's over 60% but by a big margin so technically true but a bit weird.
Looking at Media Create 2023 sellthrough
NSW : 4.15M
PS5 : 2.42M
XBS+PS4 : 150k
Total : 6.72M
4.15M is <62% of 6.72M so it fits better the "over 60%" (
Any other previous years or LTD would have NSW way over 60%, it's a bit weird to pick only 2023's data for marketshare and not mention it but oh well.
That's if we only consider hardware."
In general, I will add the following to what he already wrote: it is very strange to me to talk about market share without mentioning a time period. One could use active console userbase, but there are a few caveats: (1) that technically also requires a time period as it is a varying quantity; (2) I am not entirely sure any tracker gets to know those numbers with precision and I am guessing only Sony, Nintendo and MS would have access to active console userbases per region and they are not typically sharing this kind of data.
In general, I would say using 2023 marketshare makes far more sense as those numbers: 1) would probably be available to them and 2) are the most recent yearly number that are available. If it is 2023 HW then to me we can conclude primarily one thing from it: NSW is still selling fairly well as that is 80+ percent of what PS5 sold in probably its peak year, post heavy supply constraints even. If I would take a guess, NSW peak was probably far higher than that of PS5 this year and SEA is probably the primary reason why 'Other' went from being nearly irrelevant for Nintendo to being reasonably big for NSW (potentially even PS4 level big or close enough - though I am not sure if there is a way to conclude that decisively as Sony does not split their HW shipments like Nintendo does).
Lastly, I will say that it is really a shame that when we finally get data for certain markets, it is in such a poorly written article that we cannot even be sure what it is referring to. The graph could have been made so much clearer by adding the appropriate time periods and clarification, but instead they just put a graph there that does not give us a clear idea of what it is depicting.
"The hint to get what they mean by marketshare is to use the number mentionned for Japan since we have hard numbers there and they say NSW is "over" 60% (which also means it also has to be <70%)
If we use LTD numbers for Japan with the hardware mentioned
NSW : 34M
PS5 : 6M
PS4 : 9.5M
XBS : 400k
XB1 : >100k
That gives 50M, with NSW accounting for 68%, that's over 60% but by a big margin so technically true but a bit weird.
Looking at Media Create 2023 sellthrough
NSW : 4.15M
PS5 : 2.42M
XBS+PS4 : 150k
Total : 6.72M
4.15M is <62% of 6.72M so it fits better the "over 60%" (
Any other previous years or LTD would have NSW way over 60%, it's a bit weird to pick only 2023's data for marketshare and not mention it but oh well.
That's if we only consider hardware."
In general, I will add the following to what he already wrote: it is very strange to me to talk about market share without mentioning a time period. One could use active console userbase, but there are a few caveats: (1) that technically also requires a time period as it is a varying quantity; (2) I am not entirely sure any tracker gets to know those numbers with precision and I am guessing only Sony, Nintendo and MS would have access to active console userbases per region and they are not typically sharing this kind of data.
In general, I would say using 2023 marketshare makes far more sense as those numbers: 1) would probably be available to them and 2) are the most recent yearly number that are available. If it is 2023 HW then to me we can conclude primarily one thing from it: NSW is still selling fairly well as that is 80+ percent of what PS5 sold in probably its peak year, post heavy supply constraints even. If I would take a guess, NSW peak was probably far higher than that of PS5 this year and SEA is probably the primary reason why 'Other' went from being nearly irrelevant for Nintendo to being reasonably big for NSW (potentially even PS4 level big or close enough - though I am not sure if there is a way to conclude that decisively as Sony does not split their HW shipments like Nintendo does).
Lastly, I will say that it is really a shame that when we finally get data for certain markets, it is in such a poorly written article that we cannot even be sure what it is referring to. The graph could have been made so much clearer by adding the appropriate time periods and clarification, but instead they just put a graph there that does not give us a clear idea of what it is depicting.
Actually, I remembered that we have some mothly data. Insomniac leak contains PSN MAU for the period starting in January 2021 and ending in February 2023.
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No. I'm just trying to use numbers that I'm 100% sure of. Of course, I understand that the number of PS4 sold through didn't stop in 2020 and continued to grow at a certain level.
56M PS5 used 2.4B gameplay hours. (~63%)
X million PS4 used 1.4B gameplay hours (~37%).
I think is pretty obvious that X ≠ PS4 sell-in or PS4 sell-through.
I understand why X has to be included. I don't understand why they include some PS4 numbers without clarification and call it “PS4&PS5”. That's why it doesn't make any sense.
I don't see any issues with including X PS4's that are still in use.
I see an issues with including PS4 sell-in or sell-through and using the “PS4&PS5” graph without clarification.
Yes, the PS4 has had an unusually long run of developers support. But obviously the PS4 install base now is much smaller than PS4 sell-in or sell-through numbers.
If we're talking about hardware market share in 2024, it's absurd to include PS4 2013 sales.
Well, this is a strange stament. Market analysis usually relies on revenue and sales, so information about generations is indeed useless in the case of cash flow.
However, in cases where market analysis tries to talk about install base, it's hard to ignore generations and hard to assume that a platform released in 2013 still maintains the same install base as before the PS5 release lol.
The monthly numbers of active users is close to PS sell-through numbers. It's not static, but it doesn't have unusual spikes that are out of sync with the install base and sell-through numbers. If 100M PS4's were still in use, they'd have a lot more active users or active consoles than 50M.
There's nothing wrong with combining an active PS4's with an active PS5's. Hovewer it's wrong to combine sell-in or sell-through if they call it hardware market share.
We have annual hardware data for South Korea and Taiwan. The software graph is also revealing.
When it comes to the regional market as a whole, failure or success is determined by regional market share. A platform may be successful in individual countries of that region, but failure in the largeast part of regional market (Japan) reduces it's share.
I call it a failure only in the context of regional market share. It is clear that in China, for example, PS5 is quite successful.
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Danny
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Hot takes and lack of critical thinking, repeated behaviour, 4th infraction in 4 months
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In the end why would it matter to grow in a pretty tiny market for them, a market that will always be fully dominated by mobile and PC gaming anyway, when they are going to continue to fall in their biggest, most important market?
And one factor you don't seem to consider is that during previous generations, Sony made repeated price cuts to grow the amount of casuals willing to buy the console, this gen will not have the same price cuts, so logically that will lead to fewer people buying a PS5 in its latter years than people buying a PS4 in its latter years.
This would never occur if Xbox was actually at 16% in Asia. Also reminds me of the story that Xbox was considering leaving some MENA territories.
Some extremely strange way to report console share which is probably just to sell more reports to be all honest.
"Microsoft Considers Stopping Xbox Sales in the Middle East
Also, we may not have their next mobile device.
The focus will be on PC Game Pass and accessories only."
What does it say? Translate for me keeps saying "cannot retrieve translation"
After severall talks we have now a clarification about what the data from Niko Partners in the OP represent thanks to @Welfare
I think now evrything is more understanble.
I think now evrything is more understanble.
thanks to the both of you!
So the data is useful unlike some here trying to say the data is unfair because it compares two generation of consoles of PS and xbox vs Switch.
In the end the switch is not market leader in other Asian markets, like some always say
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Active console base makes sense and puts PS in even better light. If they can effectively transfer those PS4 players to PS5 whilst also taking marketshare from a declining Xbox transition (XB1 -> XBS is expected to decline significantly), they could have the majority of the Asian (non-JP) market.
People were under the impression those were ltd hardware totals, not active users.
Also this can vary market to market, as Switch likely still leads in SK and Taiwan based on the software charts and known installed bases. Although if this is "active users" then the 60%+ Switch in Japan figure makes even less sense? It'd almost certainly be 70%+ and possibly even 80%+?
Yes because marketshare referring to active users is not really done. Trackable sales is usually what is correlated to that, either by units or revenue.
Tracking of users isn’t nearly as reliable, and the Japan numbers gives heavy pause since Switch is far too low.
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I was going to ask the same thing. It is really puzzling. May be a case of it being unreliable or that it was even something else (the article was not exactly well written)
“We note that Japan is unique in this case as the Nintendo Switch accounts for over 60% market share there.”
If these numbers represent a hardware sales share, then we can combine PS4+PS5 with XBS+XB1 to get 68% of NSW share. It's a bit odd to refer 68% as “over 60%” , but in that case the validity of numbers is out of question. Therefore, we discussed the interpretation of these numbers and the validity PS4+PS5 combined share.
However, if these numbers represent the share of active users, then I personally have serious doubts about their reliability. Given Media Create and Famitsu's data on software sales in Japan, it's almost impossible to imagine that the share of active XB and PS users in Japan is 40%.
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If it would be 2023 hardware sales for japan then as @Fisico pointed out the share gets much closer to 60%. Given how poorly articulated the article was I would not rule out Asia - Japan being one thing and Japan something else
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source is reliable, but I understand why some are in denial
But again it's a ridiculous statement to say Asia ex Japan given how varied Asia can be.
South Korea is Asia ex Japan but it's what people talk about the Japanese market but extreme (Nintendo is higher and Playstation and Xbox are lower). So in this case the 4th biggest gaming market in the world and a top 5 console market in Asia is literally identical in every aspect to Japan. Let's not forget the very bizarre situation where PS5 sold less in 2023 than 2022 in Korea.
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Ah yeah sure. SEA is probably quite different from the rest of Asia and has behaviour closer to Japan. That is also what we see in MC threads (some markets in SEA) so the datapoints do not disagree in principle
