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Nikkei: Nintendo Switch's successor will launch in March 2025

Lelouch0612

Lelouch0612

Staff
Archivist Genius Staff
Nintendo will launch the successor to the Nintendo Switch games console in March 2025.
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Like the Switch, it is expected to be a games console with both stationary and portable features. Many in the industry had expected a launch in 2024, but priority was given to securing initial stocks of the successor and a range of leading software titles at the time of launch, due to resale prevention measures and other factors.
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The successor will feature a larger screen than the Switch (standard model is 6.2 inches), and games that sell higher definition picture quality...
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Translated with DeepL.com

The rest is behind paywall, hopefully someone will have access to it 😀

www.nikkei.com

ニンテンドースイッチ後継機、2025年3月にも発売へ - 日本経済新聞

任天堂はゲーム機「ニンテンドースイッチ」の後継機を2025年3月にも発売する。スイッチ同様に据え置き型と携帯型の両方の特徴を備えたゲーム機となる見通し。業界では24年の発売を予想する声が多かったが、転売防止対策などで後継機の初期在庫や発売当初の有力ソフトの品ぞろえを確保することを優先した。後継機はスイッチ（標準モデルは6.2インチ）を超える大画面を採用し、より高精細な画質を売りにするゲームにも
www.nikkei.com www.nikkei.com
 
Well...don't know what other will think about it, but to me this cements the rumor: hope to see a strong H2 lineup of Switch games to keep ME active on the console I own, waiting for its successor lol
 
I was 100% sure it would hit in March once we "knew" it would be delayed into 2025. This "confirmation" is nice to have though.
I hope we get the reveal soon ... would make the wait so much easier. What do we think? June?
 
Scalping... ok, so that's the meaning of "due to resale prevention measures". I read it negatively and thought it was some kind of a new weird feature of the Switch successor. :D
 
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Lelouch0612 said:
The point about the software line up was already brought up when the delay new broke.

However, the part about shortages and scalping is definitely and interesting. How much units would they aiming for in March to fight it ?
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This point is very interesting because if they do NOT launch in holiday season, then they also need fewer quantity I think. Initial sales in launch month will be comparable for sure, but sales in 2nd month (April in this case) will definetly be lower by default in comparison to December sales.
 
Lelouch0612 said:
The point about the software line up was already brought up when the delay new broke.

However, the part about shortages and scalping is definitely and interesting. How much units would they aiming for in March to fight it ?
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I don't think this necessarily means a (much) larger initial shipment, which would depend on retailers anyway, but rather enough stock to keep it constantly on shelves for at least a couple months after launch and ideally until the end of holiday 25. That last bit would depend more on their monthly production capacity, but they might need six to eight million right off the bat for the first part, launch software depending.
 
Imho nowadays a March release is better than a Holiday release. The PS5 and Series X launches were not good. Cutting out part of the mass market and building inventory makes everything smoother. This thing is gonna be sold at the same pricepoint for 5 years, setting a sales record at launch is absolutely useless, actually it's detremental, because costs of production might decrease from March to October, giving a larger profit margin.
 
Demand will surely outpace Offer for the first year, at least for the first (and maybe second) year. So i don't see a Holiday boost being significantly, it'll be hard to get for quite a few months, christmass or not.
 
Luke88 said:
Imho nowadays a March release is better than a Holiday release. The PS5 and Series X launches were not good. Cutting out part of the mass market and building inventory makes everything smoother. This thing is gonna be sold at the same pricepoint for 5 years, setting a sales record at launch is absolutely useless, actually it's detremental, because costs of production might decrease from March to October, giving a larger profit margin.
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PS5/XBS launch would have not been a mess if it was not in the middle of a pandemic.
 
Tialo said:
This point is very interesting because if they do NOT launch in holiday season, then they also need fewer quantity I think. Initial sales in launch month will be comparable for sure, but sales in 2nd month (April in this case) will definetly be lower by default in comparison to December sales.
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Undead Warrior said:
I don't think this necessarily means a (much) larger initial shipment, which would depend on retailers anyway, but rather enough stock to keep it constantly on shelves for at least a couple months after launch and ideally until the end of holiday 25. That last bit would depend more on their monthly production capacity, but they might need six to eight million right off the bat for the first part, launch software depending.
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Excellent points all around.

Sales will be more spread and you sould be able to avoid those hard shortages post-Holidays. You also launch 8 months before the next Holidays, hopefully with enough time to be fully stocked.

You also avoid the Holiday surge in demand, people that will buy your console in March are more likely to generate a higher ARPU than your usual Holiday buyer.
 
a March '25 launch can be ok or even great for all the aformentioned reasons
it will of course depend on price positioning and actual product characteristics + software lineup but per sé there is more pro tjan cons in launching in Q1 CY'25

that said, they should keep the userbase active on Switch 1, keeping the brand awereness high, and transition it toward the Switch 2

to reach this goal imho, 4 points are key

a) H2 Switch lineup with interesting (commercial-wise) games
b) backward compatibility
c) account smooth transition of existing digital library
d) Switch-to-Switch2 performance update program for at least "some" game

to me

a) the absolute silence from Nintendo about H2 means ...that there will be interesting (commercial-wise) games, like a Pokémon game, a casual game like Tomodatchi, a family game like Mario Party and a "core" game like Metroid Prime 4
b) being backward compatible, these games can be of interest also for those who will purchase the Switch2 few months later
c) especially if there will be the chance to pass the full existing digital librari to the new console, simply linking your existing Nintendo Account into it
d) for the "core" games (like Prime 4) having this performance-boos program could even be a way of promoting the Switch2 (generational transition) better than simply having it (Prime 4) mulitplatform and available for both consoles day1 in March '25 (this would help passing the message, imho)
 
Is there any analysis of the relationship between the launch month of console and sales? I strongly doubt people's belief that holiday releases are better for sales.
 
This is the first article that mentions that they delay is not only due to a lack of software but also because Nintendo wants to produce more Switch 2 for the launch window than they previously produced for the Switch launch window.

Does that mean an earlier production start for the Switch 2? If so, things should start heating up pretty soon.

Would Nintendo force their dev teams to go into crunch to be ready for a march 2025 release? Crunch is to be avoided but Nintendo surely doesn't want to have delay Switch 2 all the way to September 2025 i would guess.
 
Danny said:
This is the first article that mentions that they delay is not only due to a lack of software but also because Nintendo wants to produce more Switch 2 for the launch window than they previously produced for the Switch launch window.

Does that mean an earlier production start for the Switch 2? If so, things should start heating up pretty soon.
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It could also mean that their projected production pipeline was lower than initially planned and so they just need more time to get a good level of stock for launch.
Danny said:
Would Nintendo force their dev teams to go into crunch to be ready for a march 2025 release? Crunch is to be avoided but Nintendo surely doesn't want to have delay Switch 2 all the way to September 2025 i would guess.
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Has Nintendo ever done this? At all? don't think this is remotely a possibility.
 
Danny said:
Would Nintendo force their dev teams to go into crunch to be ready for a march 2025 release? Crunch is to be avoided but Nintendo surely doesn't want to have delay Switch 2 all the way to September 2025 i would guess.
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Considering that there are several big nintendo teams that have NOT released bigger games for quite a while, I would expect them to provide a great launch-window lineup WITHOUT any kind of crunching. At least EPD8, EPD9 and Metroid Prime 4 should be ready for spring/summer 2025 anyway
 
Why crunch? Devs will get 4 extra months. Nintendo might also have some smaller titles or ports/remasters/whatever to fill in the launch window gaps. Should be easier for them to go from Switch 1 -> Switch 2 than WiiU/3DS -> Switch 1.
 
Ystad said:
Why crunch? Devs will get 4 extra months. Nintendo might also have some smaller titles or ports/remasters/whatever to fill in the launch window gaps. Should be easier for them to go from Switch 1 -> Switch 2 than WiiU/3DS -> Switch 1.
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Because according to the article the delay could be further into 2025 if software isn't ready by march, so if Nintendo have the option to force crunch or release Switch 2 in september 2025 what option would they take?
 
Danny said:
Would Nintendo force their dev teams to go into crunch to be ready for a march 2025 release? Crunch is to be avoided but Nintendo surely doesn't want to have delay Switch 2 all the way to September 2025 i would guess.
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Given the time that has passed since many of the Nintendo teams released games, I think the delay was made to give some extra polish to the games/ensure all features make it in the final product in order to receive the best possible reception by critics and fans. There will always be something to add or improve in a game, but they're gonna have to chop something eventually. I think we should be thankful that the games will be better than they would've been if they came out this year. This dealy seems to be a good faith investment in the quality of the games, possibly as a result of the strong reception of Mario Wonder.

Also the move to march allows to group up the releases, delaying the 2024 Switch 2 releases strenghtens the 2025 lineup.
 
Danny said:
Because according to the article the delay could be further into 2025 if software isn't ready by march, so if Nintendo have the option to force crunch or release Switch 2 in september 2025 what option would they take?
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Well... :)
As the article mentions, this depends on what "key titles that affect initial sales" they have. If they have e.g. mainline 3D Mario, then they could go with lesser amount of other titles. We would have to make lists and compare what titles are possible to release, but at this point it is guess work.

Ultimately, no, I have no answer to your question, if the options are only crunch or September.

Luke88 said:
Given the time that has passed since many of the Nintendo teams released games, I think the delay was made to give some extra polish to the games/ensure all features make it in the final product in order to receive the best possible reception by critics and fans. There will always be something to add or improve in a game, but they're gonna have to chop something eventually. I think we should be thankful that the games will be better than they would've been if they came out this year. This dealy seems to be a good faith investment in the quality of the games, possibly as a result of the strong reception of Mario Wonder.

Also the move to march allows to group up the releases, delaying the 2024 Switch 2 releases strenghtens the 2025 lineup.
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And this.
I believe they will take the third route: March, no big crunch, release what they have. They still have a year to adjust.
 
Ystad said:
I believe they will take the third route: March, no big crunch, release what they have. They still have a year to adjust.
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If they are not that much confident about March 2025 this mean that games are still a bit far from completion.

So a march release without big crunch for few games is unlikely.

Anyways I don't think Nintendo ever stop crunch, it's just likely less severe than others devs.
 
Remolino said:
So that means the report contains nothing except that Nikkei is participating in this ominous March 2025 circlejerk of journalists and the Nintendo Switch successor now gets its twenty-seventh release date.
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Nikkei compared to western news outlets should have sources from Nintendo of Japan itself, so much more complete sources.
 
Astral_lion02 said:
If they are not that much confident about March 2025 this mean that games are still a bit far from completion.

So a march release without big crunch for few games is unlikely.

Anyways I don't think Nintendo ever stop crunch, it's just likely less severe than others devs.
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Maybe not far, more like borderline.
If games would have been far from completion, then a March 2025 would have been scrapped already.
Every release has a bigger crunch, but I just don't see Nintendo as a big cruncher.
 
Bernd Lauert said:
I'm slightly salty, but there being plenty of stock and hopefully plenty of 1st party games might make it worth the delay.
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I agree.
And if rumors are to be trusted, third parties would have the devkit one year before release, which is more than for the switch.
 
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Animal Crossing: 2020
Donkey Kong: 2018
Luigi's Mansion: 2019
Mario Kart: 2017
Starfox: 2016
3D-Mario: 2017
Smash Bros.: 2018

Some of the relevant Nintendo-franchises that will have been absent for more than 5 years at Switch 2's launch date. Switch 2 launch windows should be absolutely stacked.
 
I feel like the demand will be insane, so it's a good decision.

And it will be a few more months to save the money to buy the console and at least two games at launch.

I hope at least the announcement isn't far away. I can't wait to see what the launch games will be.
 
Danny said:
Nikkei compared to western news outlets should have sources from Nintendo of Japan itself, so much more complete sources.
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Their sources are usuly from manufacturing, if I remember correctly.

Given this, I suspect production will start much earlier in order to build up stock. From the gigaleak, Nintendo originally planned Switch to start production in October for a November launch. They pushed the date for production then and still didn't have enough. Either they still do October but have more lines open earlier or they start production in September or whatever
 
When did the scalping issue was pretty much solved on US and Japan for OG Switch?

Unlike COVID times for PS5, people will most likely expect the issue to be solved by early 2026 if not in 2025, so once the "I don't care if I'm paying 100+ more" public is served quickly, most will just "wait a few months" and it will be a self fulfilling prophecy.

IMO, something like 4M in March and another 4M in Q1 would be enough to get prices at 50$ premium at most in Q2, then 3M in Q2 and 8M in Q3 would probably be enough for people getting it at MRSP by the holidays in many countries (supposing they can manufacture that much, that is).
 
I cant imagine Switch 2 failing if they go for a similar concept with some new novelties and a constant stream of great games from launch to the end of the life cycle. They have delivered that during the Switch gen.
 
An important thing that I notice with Switch 1 now that we talk about production is that reveal happened at the same time production started.

For Switch lite production started few months before the July anoncement and the console leaked during Spring.

So if Nintendo start Switch 2 production earlier than October maybe they will be forced to reveal it earlier to avoid leaks.

Maybe a June first look (like 3DS) is more likely than October then.
 
Tbone5189 said:
@Tokuiten I won 😭

Lol so many years in the making
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switch2-delay-hell.png
 
Astral_lion02 said:
An important thing that I notice with Switch 1 now that we talk about production is that reveal happened at the same time production started.

For Switch lite production started few months before the July anoncement and the console leaked during Spring.

So if Nintendo start Switch 2 production earlier than October maybe they will be forced to reveal it earlier to avoid leaks.

Maybe a June first look (like 3DS) is more likely than October then.
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Another point in common between the Switch and 3DS is that the two platforms were formally announced in March/April, for a launch that wouldn't happen until the following Q1.

For the NX they even gave the exact release month.

money.cnn.com

Nintendo announces new console, codenamed 'NX'

Nintendo has announced a new console called the 'NX' to replace the wildly disappointing Wii U. But it won't be available until March 2017.
money.cnn.com

March 23, 2010

To Whom It May Concern:
Re: Launch of New Portable Game Machine

Nintendo Co., Ltd. (Minami-ward of Kyoto-city, President Satoru Iwata) will launch "Nintendo 3DS"(temp) during the fiscal year ending March 2011, on which games can be enjoyed with 3D effects without the need for any special glasses.

"Nintendo 3DS"(temp) is going to be the new portable game machine to succeed "Nintendo DS series", whose cumulative consolidated sales from Nintendo amounted to 125million units as of the end of December 2009, and will include backward compatibility so that the software for Nintendo DS series, including the ones for Nintendo DSi, can also be enjoyed.

We are planning to announce additional details at E3 show, which is scheduled to be held from June 15, 2010 at Los Angeles in the U.S.
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Anyway, my conspiracy theory for 2025 being the release year (Other than the logical reasons of giving devs more time to finish games + building up hardware stockpile) is that they want to time it with a Nintendo IP game release that also has a movie / TV show tie in.
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Interesting conspirational speculation from Zhuge, given what the Nikkei Asia article mentioned:

Nintendo will try to expand sales of the Switch successor, by among other means, combining marketing with their popular intellectual properties, such as its game characters and movies.
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asia.nikkei.com

Nintendo to launch Switch console successor in March 2025 at earliest

Delay allows streamlining of sales, gives developers time to create titles for new unit
asia.nikkei.com asia.nikkei.com
 
The PS5 scalping situation was an absolute nightmare, and while that was caused by the pandemic, there is a good possibility that the Switch 2 will be hard to get for the average consumer because of the potential giant launch, and it makes sense that Nintendo is arming the cannons and lining everything up for the biggest possible launch year to reduce such issues.
 
Tokuiten said:
Animal Crossing: 2020
Donkey Kong: 2018
Luigi's Mansion: 2019
Mario Kart: 2017
Starfox: 2016
3D-Mario: 2017
Smash Bros.: 2018

Some of the relevant Nintendo-franchises that will have been absent for more than 5 years at Switch 2's launch date. Switch 2 launch windows should be absolutely stacked.
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New entries in these franchises (among others) are going to appear on Switch 2 across several years, not just the launch window or even launch year.
 
One thing I would like to confirmbut I guess is difficult to answer because it’s a machine translation and the full article is paywalled, but the excerpt from the op never states that Nintendo delayed it from 2024, just that industry (and fans) expected it this year, but they decided that 2025 is a better idea.

I feel this is very important because it is very different when something is delayed because things are not going as planned, than when the plan was to just launch later all along and just making sure everything goes smoothly.
 
Lelouch0612 said:




Interesting conspirational speculation from Zhuge, given what the Nikkei Asia article mentioned:


asia.nikkei.com

Nintendo to launch Switch console successor in March 2025 at earliest

Delay allows streamlining of sales, gives developers time to create titles for new unit
asia.nikkei.com asia.nikkei.com
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I can definitely get behind that theory - it would align with Nintendo's plans to reach wider audiences, leverage key IP more, and achieve that 'stretch' that it's currently achieving in the twilight years of Switch.
 
Pretty much exactly what most were expecting once the "delay" to 2025 became apparent. Also more or less mirrors the Switch 1 launch.
 
fiendcode said:
Zhuge is making the usual mistake of directly comparing Nintendo and Sony revenue. Those 80%s aren't the same thing.
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Yeah, and all it does is perpetuate the idea that third-parties don't sell on Nintendo platforms. Percentages are so misleading without actual figures and breakdowns of revenue. Third parties could literally sell the same amount of software on both platforms, but MTX revenue being more on Sony platforms plus Nintendo first-parties being outliers in sales would skew the results.
 
I 100% disagree with Zhuge that the launch timing has to do with any other media/movie TV show. Other media could be in the works, but their new generation timing will have nothing to do with it.They haven't shown that type of purposeful timing in the past
 
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