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Mobile (Gacha) Market Tracking

As we've been discussing Aterlier game, it's having a good bounce back to the Top 10 on iOS JP, sitting at #8 right now. I assume a new banner has released but this is a very promising showing from such a niche IP.

If this keeps up I think this will definitely be a success for everyone involved.

They've been introducing more buttons with swimming and even characters now, so I wouldn't be surprised if there is a bigger shift to PC/PS.
Which is also why I imagine Wuthering Waves and Project Mugen will have to lean harder into that, though the former not on PS.
Wuthering Waves had like 10 buttons, it was extremely wieldly, and I played on RedMagic 8 Pro, which has mappable shoulders.

I'd be shocked if WW doesn't show up on a console, I could see Microsoft want a piece of that pie and a competitor to Genshin.

Another thing I was considering for the drop on mobile is that mobile players might be a bit more sensitive to market dynamics as its a more casually accessible area of monetization compared to console sphere which is a more self-selective sample.
 
As we've been discussing Aterlier game, it's having a good bounce back to the Top 10 on iOS JP, sitting at #8 right now. I assume a new banner has released but this is a very promising showing from such a niche IP.

If this keeps up I think this will definitely be a success for everyone involved.

On said topic:

That fancy Atelier mobage reached 1m downloads (was released on September 23rd). DL number doesn't mean much, but it's better than nothing I guess.

It's also ranking consistently high in the grossing charts. According to Sensor Tower, it grossed more than $1.8 million over its first week.

Definitely forming up to be a nice positive surprise in the market.
 
The more robust data on SensorTower data before the BiliBili uncle releases his numbers on the 10th of the month:



Some numbers changed from the earlier report due to ST updating their numbers between reports; Genshin increased up a little bit more as the biggest change.

Atelier seems to be around 2m$, great result so far.
 
Haven't gotten around to try it myself, but a few Reddit posts I read mention that Atelier's prices are unreasonably high. That could chase users away once the honeymoon/free rolls phase is over.

Also from I've seen on the wiki, the art is decidedly subpar for an Atelier game, which is a shame.
 
Player tracker updated, big spike for Genshin as anni numbers start popping in @Busaiku. I dunno if people moved platforms, to me it seems maybe they just stopped playing based on this spike.
 
I mean, the spike would put it at the highest this year, even above New Year's/Lantern Rite, so it could also be attributed to the players who fell out afterwards and returned with the refresh.

I have little doubt there was an exodus in the latter parts of 3.X, but it would be hard to see the dropoff following 4.0, which had been extremely well received on all measures, beyond the mobile experience.
 
Per @Astrogamer weekly posts, we have Japan Q3 result.

010.jpg


With trends from previous quarter:

The article also features Q3 Rankings for Japan
This QuarterLast QuarterTitleDL ChangeRev Change
1​
2​
Fate/Grand Order-11%27%
2​
1​
Monster Strike75%16%
3​
3​
Uma Musume Pretty Derby10%23%
4​
6​
Pro Baseball Spirits A-29%34%
5​
8​
Dragon Quest Walk6%16%
6​
5​
Puzzle & Dragons18%-3%
7​
4​
Honkai: Star Rail-77%-16%
8​
9​
Genshin Impact-20%-7%
9​
10​
Pokémon GO52%26%
10​
19​
One Piece: Bounty Rush54%104%

While HSR DL drops are huge, it needs to be noted this is post-release Q2 so it makes sense.
 
Partially market adjacent and relevant:


From GI.biz,

EA Sports FC 24 has reached a player account of 11.3 million globally since the week of its launch.

Meanwhile, EA Sports FC Mobile hit 11.2 million users ten days after its release.

Additionally, the mobile title was downloaded by 2.2 million players on the day of its launch.

Also excellent numbers of the mobile gameplay reveal.
 
In related news, Konami is the king of mobile sports. Professional Baseball Spirits A dominates both in Japan and Globally and Konami makes up 6 of the top 10 sports titles in Japan.
 
Huh, I thought baseball was relatively unpopular outside of Japan and the US, wouldn't have expected that.
Google tells me it's also quite popular in South America, though the methodology used in the articles I've read is a bit wonky (based on the number of Google searches with "baseball" in it).
 
I think it's a bit more the World Baseball Classic. I think Professional Baseball Spirits A is just in Japan so that drove revenue more than usual and kept it more in the public consciousness in Japan so it's one of the highest grossing games in Japan this year. I'm not sure about FIFA since I don't pay close attention to European charts and the rest of the world tends to be low spenders. Soccer is split between FIFA and eFootball as well as Korea having their own version of FIFA on their own (ignoring Blue Lock because that's an anime tie-in)
 
Interesting blog from data.ai. They've started to do more blogs now and this article that there are currently 101 mobile games that have passed $1 billion. It's certainly an impressive feat for LoL Wild Rift given it doesn't rank that high in the US and Japan suggesting it's mostly from China.
This article from last month also notes that there are 40 mobile games that have passed $2 billion.
Curious on the breakdown of titles that have reached these milestones since games with released numbers seem a fair bit fewer.
 
Apple iOS/Genshin Impact related news:


Genshin Impact developer with close relationship to Apple twice tried to evade 30% cut​


MHY tried to dodge Apple's cut in iOS store by redirecting users to MHY's own pay-store, so effectively what EPIC tried to do.
 
I can't imagine those specific initiatives having too much if an impact, but Hoyo has been doing things like partnering with other storefronts/rewards programs, outside of mobile, and conditioning users to pay through PC, where they no doubt get a greater cut, even outside of their own direct storefront.
 
HSR's new banner is one of the best it's had since Silver Wolf though not quite as good, this also marks the release of PS5 version + significant increase in marketing alongside said event. This is another fairly big DPS/powercreep unit to come, so it's another powerhouse and this time its a female character compared to the previous big DPS unit who was male.

US: 6
EU (GER/FR/UK): 6/12/20
JP: 1
SK: 1
CN: 1

The previous banner was less notable but it was a support unit. I do wonder how long this power-sprint will keep going? It's been 8ish months now? And they've powercrept the entire of the release and early release roster fairly significantly.
 
Just a heads up that i wont be able to post much for a month. Broke both arms haha.

😱 Oh my god! I pray for the best possible outcome and the swiftest recovery time.

I had a friend fracture both his wrists trying while trying to catch himself from a fall.
The incident was aptly named "Gamer's Purgatory" because it took him nearly 3 months to get comfortable using his hands.
 
In related news, Konami is the king of mobile sports. Professional Baseball Spirits A dominates both in Japan and Globally and Konami makes up 6 of the top 10 sports titles in Japan.

Nothing surprising. If i would even say. Konami should have quickly expand more to get more sports under their belt.

Getting Golf, Badminton or even Tennis should be utmost priorities.
 
Danmachi Battle Chronicle hits $8 million in a month. It made 80% of Aiming's revenue for September (with The Eminence in Shadow composing most of the remainder). They also mention the previous Danmachi game, Danmachi Memoria Freese, has reached $170 million as of August 2023.
 
Update on Monster Hunter Now.


Niantic has announced that its location-based RPG, Monster Hunter Now, has been downloaded 10 million times.
The mobile title reached the milestone a month after its global release.

Niantic COO Kei Kawai said, "We are delighted that so many people from all over the world have been playing our game in the first month since its global release."

1st week - 5M
1st month - 10M

Somebody can make a thread, if they feel like it's worthy of it.
 
Data ai's September Report
Top Games by Downloads
  1. Subway Surfers
  2. Garena Free Fire
  3. Build A Queen
  4. Roblox
  5. My Perfect Hotel
  6. Royal Match
  7. Ludo King
  8. Tic Tac Toe: 2 Player XO
  9. Real Car Driving: Race City 3D
  10. Nextbots in Backrooms
Top Games by Consumer Spend
  1. Royal Match
  2. Monopoly GO
  3. Candy Crush Saga
  4. Roblox
  5. Coin Master
  6. Honor of Kings
  7. Pokemon Go
  8. Genshin Impact
  9. Honkai Star Rail
  10. Gardenscapes
Sensor Tower's September Report
Top Downloads
-JP--Top-Mobile-Games-Worldwide-for-September-2023-by-Downloads

Top Grossing
-JP--Top-Grossing-Mobile-Games-Worldwide-for-September-2023
 
Sensor Tower will probably adjust the revenue in a few days so, I haven't looked at the numbers yet. From a quick glance at Reverse 1999, it looks like it had a middling start despite the effort for localization.
 
Sensor Tower will probably adjust the revenue in a few days so, I haven't looked at the numbers yet. From a quick glance at Reverse 1999, it looks like it had a middling start despite the effort for localization.

I'd say it did alright for four days. Hard to say.

But all in all a lukewarm start. It'll be interesting to see if it finds a better hold in JP, where it's showing weaker results than Global: https://game-i.daa.jp/?APP/6448979859

It's a good game, so it has merits.

----

Atelier seems to be doing great though.
 
The biggest issue I see was that the localization for Reverse was pretty poorly done for the beginning chapters. Which was exacerbated by the full english voice acting reading the janky script word for word.

 
Yes the game has some serious issues with the localization, much of it seems machine translated. Will be interesting to see if the devs act fast to fix it.
 
The Atelier subreddit is doomposting because of Resleriana's success, saying that Gust won't focus on the console games anymore or will pump them full of microtransactions.

I think they're vastly overexaggerating, but do you know of any examples where a dev/publisher did exactly that?
 
The Atelier subreddit is doomposting because of Resleriana's success, saying that Gust won't focus on the console games anymore or will pump them full of microtransactions.

I think they're vastly overexaggerating, but do you know of any examples where a dev/publisher did exactly that?
There was more than some concern a decade ago about the mobile market eating the traditional, premium games one. And big publishers tried hard to get a foothold in the mobile market, hard enough to shift resources from the kind of games that fans, especially overseas, wanted. Konami? Square Enix?

The concern over Atelier success on mobile doesn't hold water, but maybe it could free Gust from yearly iterative releases.
 
The Atelier subreddit is doomposting because of Resleriana's success, saying that Gust won't focus on the console games anymore or will pump them full of microtransactions.

I think they're vastly overexaggerating, but do you know of any examples where a dev/publisher did exactly that?
Why do you care about some Reddit posts in the first place?
 
So despite Furina's upcoming release in Genshin the recent live stream did not really show any increase in viewership. I think at this point we might honestly just see the title bouncing around a set average, we're no longer going to see huge spikes or dips it's just going to be what it is. No banner in 4.X so far has really done anything to rise above a sort of baseline.

This is speaking purely for the global market the Chinese market seems to actually be responding quite well to some of these banners.

Why do you care about some Reddit posts in the first place?

It's not about caring, I'm just wondering if that particular concern is actually backed up by past events.

Given how feast or famine mobile can be I would think they would wanna use it more as a way of growing the IP and then using that leverage on standard releases not focusing purely on mobile.
 
So Furina's release is here for Genshin as the new Archon.

However, she doesn't appear to breaking out from past trends in most non-CN markets (surprised she failed to hit #1 in SK). Will have to see trends over a few days for a better defined view. But right now she looks pretty par with Nuev though she may be doing much better in JP/CN.
 
Finally updated my tracker, now that my arms/hands are in a better state and I can use my PC over my laptop.

Main things of note are: HSR has begun to decline again steadily week over week, Genshin Anniversary was Week 28-spike (we'll see if it bounces back up for Furina/Archon notable release). NIKKE anniversary is also now kicking off and is the last data point on the graph at Week 33.

 
Nikke’s anniversary had a small hiccup with complaints that Red Hood wasn’t too meta (to be clear she was still very good). In response, Shift up is doing some maintenance today and buffing her into meta.

Curious how this plays out with the rankings.
 
In what I am pretty sure is evidence of MHY's games just zero-sum gaming each other over the same audience, as Genshin shot up HSR has really collapsed. It is now out of the Top 100 in NA for Games (not All) which is a *really* low bar. It has also dropped into the Top 50-60s on JP iOS.

Furina is looking to set records in CN but she seems to be a lot softer in other markets, even in JP Baseball Spirits has pushed Genshin out of #1 after only a day and a half.

Nikke’s anniversary had a small hiccup with complaints that Red Hood wasn’t too meta (to be clear she was still very good). In response, Shift up is doing some maintenance today and buffing her into meta.

Curious how this plays out with the rankings.

Might help with revenue long term, but prolly not much impact on the data presented here.
 
In what I am pretty sure is evidence of MHY's games just zero-sum gaming each other over the same audience, as Genshin shot up HSR has really collapsed. It is now out of the Top 100 in NA for Games (not All) which is a *really* low bar. It has also dropped into the Top 50-60s on JP iOS.

MHY really needs a different type of game that won't pull from their other games/just pick up some lapsed players from one title to the next.
 
Nikke’s anniversary had a small hiccup with complaints that Red Hood wasn’t too meta (to be clear she was still very good). In response, Shift up is doing some maintenance today and buffing her into meta.

Curious how this plays out with the rankings.

I like how this porn character

1. Has the worst art imaginable and feels like the artist both is giving up and literally can't draw


2. Has people complaining about how she isn't top tier.

Buying a porn character for my porn game and then complaining she doesn't fit my min-max strategy.
 
In what I am pretty sure is evidence of MHY's games just zero-sum gaming each other over the same audience, as Genshin shot up HSR has really collapsed.

Some showerthoughts from Reddit, but would you see ZZZ also continuing the trend of sharing the same stable Hoyoverse audience/revenue if it possibly has its own updates in the current gaps between Genshin and Star Rail's?

u/soaringneutrality said:
 
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I like how this porn character

1. Has the worst art imaginable and feels like the artist both is giving up and literally can't draw


2. Has people complaining about how she isn't top tier.

Buying a porn character for my porn game and then complaining she doesn't fit my min-max strategy.
I wouldn't really call NIKKE a porn game despite the fanservice purposely being part of the appeal because ultimately that'll only get you so far. You still need a decent gameplay loop to keep people around. But that's neither here nor there.
 
I like how this porn character

1. Has the worst art imaginable and feels like the artist both is giving up and literally can't draw


2. Has people complaining about how she isn't top tier.

Buying a porn character for my porn game and then complaining she doesn't fit my min-max strategy.
Oh Nikke isn't a porn gacha. Plus her design is quite well liked. And yeah it's the anniversary people want a meta class character to pull for, especially one as hyped up as she is in the story. I get what they were going for originally, jack of all trades with her ability to ult in all Bursts. But the people wanted meta and they got it, so now she does all that and melts on Burst 3.
 
Some showerthoughts from Reddit, but would you see ZZZ also continue the trend of sharing the same Hoyoverse stable audience/revenue if it possibly could have its own updates in the current gaps between Genshin and Star Rail's?

Considering that it continues the same systems, general art direction, and such... I don't think it's going to help the problem and just start pulling three ways on the same audience.

It's also really not that different from the action principles of Honkai and to some degree Genshin just more action-ified but otherwise we're still seeing the same team systems with one unit on field and such. They add some spice but it's all very formulaic.
 
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