Media Create Sales: Week 10, 2023 (Mar 06 - Mar 12)

[Oregano]

That's interesting. I remember the PS sku edged out the NSW at retail in Japan with Maiden of Black Water, at least initially. Be curious to see the sell-through on Lunar Mask, it went on to be the best selling entry in Japan at the time of release on the Wii, although admittedly that was only ~75k units.

Looks like KT sent Suda a copy.

20周年の「零」がアジア初進出で再ヒット、菊地氏＆柴田氏に訊くホラーゲームの作り方と売り方 - PickUPs!

日本の郷土文化に根ざしたホラー作品として市場の先駆者でもあった「零」シリーズは、今もなお海を超えてファン圏を拡大させている。

pickups.jp

This is the source for that by the way. Although I guess it's vague whether they mean Switch was number 1 in both Japan and Asia, or number 1 when you combine?

 

[Fisico]

There's no need to imagine a dozen scenarios, 90k was never going to be a baseline for PS5, there was pentup demand and it was going to be satisfied at some point with the shipments Japan got recently.

The question was, and still is, what will be the baseline it'll drop to and it could be anywhere between 10-60k (although history & software sales is pointing towards a narrower range way below 60k)

It will be interesting to see what kind of boost it will get in the coming weeks with notable software (RE4R) and notable exclusive (FFXVI)

 

[KillerMan]

As for PS5 sales, the slow decrease is very curious. Would Sony actively decide to ship 10k less per week? Is it a normalization towards actual demand? My expectations remain:


Fatal Frame selling badly, but I've only heard people say it's one of the worse entries, with FF5 being the worst and this one being the 2nd worst. Afaik this one never released in the West, so we should be able to expect more sales there (not that that will necessarily materialize).

Edit: Hogwarts Legacy sales are amazing btw; I researched past Harry Potter-games' sales for the prediction league and the best-selling one was for PS1 at about 140k. All other games only got to about 50-60k. And we don't even know HL's PC-sales. Considering Elden Ring sold a lot on PC in Japan, I can see HL doing at least like a third of its sales on PC. Did anyone observe Steam-activity for HL in Japan?

I am actually bit curios why first few HP games didn't sell more than that considering how HP films were juggernauts in Japan and elsewhere games did also sell really well because of movie hype.

 

[Tungsten]

Does anyone have white paper for 2020 & 2021?

Here's the thread for 2021.

20周年の「零」がアジア初進出で再ヒット、菊地氏＆柴田氏に訊くホラーゲームの作り方と売り方 - PickUPs!

日本の郷土文化に根ざしたホラー作品として市場の先駆者でもあった「零」シリーズは、今もなお海を超えてファン圏を拡大させている。

pickups.jp

This is the source for that by the way. Although I guess it's vague whether they mean Switch was number 1 in both Japan and Asia, or number 1 when you combine?

Thanks. Not sure it makes much of a difference. Looking back PS4 was 31k and NSW was 29k. Wouldn't be surprised if NSW squeaked out a lead in Japan as well after all was said and done.

 

[Chris1964]

PS5 is entering a slow period for notable releases after RE4 and until SF6 and FFXVI, these months will show where baseline for hardware will head.

Actually, FFXVI could be the last big release of PS5 for the year.

 

[fiendcode]

Bit early to call, even at this baseline it will sell 3.4 million this year, more than the Wii which had third-party attach rate even worse than the Switch.

Defending PS5 while simultaneously throwing stones about 3rd party attach rates? Brave of you.

 

[awng782]

Looks like PS5 HW is starting to drop back down to Earth after an insane February. Nevertheless, these are still huge numbers for a PlayStation console in Japan.

 

[asagami_]

PS5 sales are getting bored now they are pretty close to 50K and barely above the Switch this week. Honestly the best healthy path for Sony is keep a baseline of 50K+ weekly, but we will see if they commit to it.

 

[Megiddo]

Actually, FFXVI could be the last big release of PS5 for the year.

Oh, was it confirmed that Granblue ReLink isn't coming out this year then?

Also for release between RE4 and SF6/FF16 I believe there's the Star Wars Jedi Survivor game.

 

[CeroG1]

@Oregano how many of those 8k octopath copies are yours?

 

[Vikadozs]

IB is a classic, good to see it charting.

 

[Chris1964]

Ib ran out of stock at Yodobashi from its launch day and it's the same deal at most retailers.

 

[Tokuiten]

IB is a classic, good to see it charting.

Ib ran out of stock at Yodobashi from its launch day and it's the same deal at most retailers.

And all that with only a little over 2k members!

 

[Aime]

 

[Ptsousa]

Atelier series has been interesting exactly to look at the progressive shift of public from PS4 toward Switch

The gap narrowed from Ryza 1 to Ryza 2 and then Sophie 2. I'm pretty certain Sophie 2 ended selling more on Switch due to legs. Ryza 2 is a coin toss with a most feasible win for Switch

From Media Create Top1000 2021

223./110. [NSW] Atelier Ryza 2: Lost Legends & the Secret Fairy # <RPG> (Koei Tecmo) {2020.12.03} (¥7.800) - 12.259 / 47.957 (-66%) (23.871 <54,56%>)
276./099. [PS4] Atelier Ryza 2: Lost Legends & the Secret Fairy # <RPG> (Koei Tecmo) {2020.12.03} (¥7.800) - 8.493 / 50.519 (-80%) (32.532 <57,85%>)

Ryza 2 opened ~1,5x in favor of PS4 for the record


311./184. [NSW] Atelier Ryza: Ever Darkness & the Secret Hideout # <RPG> (Koei Tecmo) {2019.09.26} (¥7.800) - 7.083 / 62.024 (-62%) (22.908 <83,39%>)
620./304. [PS4] Atelier Ryza: Ever Darkness & the Secret Hideout # <RPG> (Koei Tecmo) {2019.09.26} (¥7.800) - 2.068 / 77.151 (-74%) (44.693 <81,39%>)

Ryza opened >2x in favor of PS4 for the record

----------------------------------
Famitsu numbers

[NSW] Atelier Ryza 1&2 Double Pack (Koei Tecmo, 12/08/22) – 3,274

----------------------------------
Also Famitsu

[PS4] Atelier Sophie 2: The Alchemist of the Mysterious Dream (Koei Tecmo Games, 02/24/22) – 22,104 (New)
[NSW] Atelier Sophie 2: The Alchemist of the Mysterious Dream (Koei Tecmo Games, 02/24/22) – 18,912 (New)



[PS4] Atelier Sophie 2: The Alchemist of the Mysterious Dream - 24,400 (two weeks)
[NSW] Atelier Sophie 2: The Alchemist of the Mysterious Dream - 21,822 (two weeks) + 1,634

 

[TheWon]

Starting to see the true baseline demand of PS5. With the current software available a 60k a week console makes since. The initial 80 and 70 obviously came from those who been waiting aka diehards. Now things will settle similarly to Switch until FF drops.

 

[Bodokoh]

Oh, was it confirmed that Granblue ReLink isn't coming out this year then?

Also for release between RE4 and SF6/FF16 I believe there's the Star Wars Jedi Survivor game.

50-150k sellers aren't going to change that much for PS5 sales.

 

[CeroG1]

50-150k sellers aren't going to change that much for PS5 sales.

Depends on what they are packing in the Relink bonus, since the game is entering the 5* uncap phase for the Evokers, an Evolite could be a valuable pre order item.

 

[Megiddo]

50-150k sellers aren't going to change that much for PS5 sales.

Nothing in my post indicated that. Just that they're "notable" or "big" releases. You can see on the chart that Aime posted that 50-150k sellers are much needed right now for PlayStation software.

 

[Gotdatmoney]

Imo there isn't enough software present for PS5 to stay around 60k in the next 3-4 months. RE4 and FF16 and then it is nothing. All the meaningful releases were in this period and the only one that really surprised was Harry Potter (which honestly is pretty cool that a Western game had the best performance ignoring the shit bag creator obviously).

Obviously 90-100k weeks couldn't ever be sustained so the next period will highlight where true demand is at. But I don't anticipate it being 60k units. Probably closer to 40k.

Switch hardware has been unusually good the last 2-3 weeks. I assumed it was tied to Kirby but maybe it is more OLED availability? Zelda is going to sell crazy units.

 

[Herb Alpert]

We are witnessing the begining of the end of the normalization process of the PS5. In a few months we will know what the baseline is.
Thinking it was 90K was kinda dumb to begin with.

 

[Megiddo]

Switch hardware has been unusually good the last 2-3 weeks.

Nah, usually good at this time was last year. Switch hardware is solid right now, but certainly nothing out of the usual considering it's down 30% or so YoY

 

[Lelouch0612]

The Playstation software landscape will become clearer once we get the Playstation Showcase, probably around May.

With FF7R2 probably not in the same year as FFXVI, and with JP biggest games often prefering a Q1 release over a Q4 one; I would agree with Chris.

If there's a big (for Japan) PS game coming this Holiday, it is most probably already announced.

 

[AruanaRiva]

Ib ran out of stock at Yodobashi from its launch day and it's the same deal at most retailers.

I have been following this whole week on Akiba Sofmap ranking for games. And IB has been the number 1 selling game for Switch chart the whole week. So yeah. I can see it is facing shortages there. Seems like a very well received title in Japan.

 

[Tbone5189]

Nah, usually good at this time was last year. Switch hardware is solid right now, but certainly nothing out of the usual considering it's down 30% or so YoY

Again context matters, third highest week of all nsw week 11 and being in its 7th year. Name 1 console that was sellig higher weekly in its 7th year. It could be down 30% YoY but that really doesn't say much to its incredible performance for a console this old.

Edit: 3DS the 4th best selling system of all time and aligned currently under 5mil sold from nsw did under half what nsw sold this week for more context

SATURATION COMPARISON YEAR 7 (3DS vs NSW)

W#: 3DS ---------- NSW

W1: 119.8k --- 125.4k*
W2: 121.4k --- 125.4k*
W3: 46.4k ----- 74.7k
W4: 34.3k ----- 51.6k
W5: 33.9k ----- 51.1k
W6: 31.3k ----- 55.7k
W7: 31.6k ----- 55.0k
W8: 27.4k ----- 48.9k
W9: 24.7k ----- 61.3k
W10: 27.1k ---- 66.5k
W11: 24.5k ---- 59.9k
W12: 56.5k
W13: 51.3K

3DS: 522k ------- 776k: NSW

Difference: 254k

Aiming for 2500k+ this year

3DS --------------- NSW
Q1: 630k --------- 776k [2 weeks left]
Q2: 243k
Q3: 490k
Q4: 429k
year: 1792k

 

[tentacle-tropes]

The curious case of PS5 software will continue. I guess we can get some needed information that will contextualize the sales once the White Book releases.

 

[Oregano]

@Oregano how many of those 8k octopath copies are yours?

I bought 1000 copies per main character

 

[Megiddo]

@Tbone5189 Agreed, which is why I said it was solid. It is indeed, solid.

Also, not surprised by Ib's success. It is a Japanese streamer/Vtuber horror staple. Like when the remake released last year, there were a good amount of streams with over 10,000 people watching it.

 

[Gotdatmoney]

Nah, usually good at this time was last year. Switch hardware is solid right now, but certainly nothing out of the usual considering it's down 30% or so YoY

It's year 7, it would be really odd if it wasn't down YOY. There aren't many platforms that don't decline in week 11, year 7 YOY. Compared to other year 7 platforms these numbers are really strong and comparatively to other week 11s on Switch this is on the higher end. If that does not qualify as unusual then the word has no meaning.

 

[Vena]

Starting to see the true baseline demand of PS5. With the current software available a 60k a week console makes since. The initial 80 and 70 obviously came from those who been waiting aka diehards. Now things will settle similarly to Switch until FF drops.

The fall is too precipitous for this to be the baseline, most likely. You'll see a slower decline once we approach a steady state but this is not what appears to be a baseline to me.

Software sales also remain low compared to hardware, so I think we have a ways to go yet before we see the bottom of the curve where the declines will ease over several weeks.

 

[Notsowise]

What is Ib? Is it good? Is it fun?

 

[Neo_arcadia7]

Granblue is interesting, very curious to see how that sells. The fighting game did a bit over 100k but Japan does not have a huge console fighting game demand. PS5 baseline is likely going to end up around 20-40K we will certainly see bumps with FFXVI & other titles, RE 4 might bring it up back closer to 80-90K for that week but my bet is that within 3-4 weeks we see our baseline.

 

[asagami_]

What is Ib? Is it good? Is it fun?

Famous indie horror game. I think it was developed on PC like a decade ago. I have read good things of the game and I feel I will get it on Switch.

 

[Lite_Agent]

What is Ib? Is it good? Is it fun?

Install Base is the name of a forum where a community of like-minded people gather to dissect and discuss the latest sales data for the video game mar...

Oh, you mean the game. Here you go:

Ib for Nintendo Switch - Nintendo Official Site

Ib

www.nintendo.com

 

[mokuroh]

3DS – 97

we love to see it haha

 

[Lite_Agent]

Wonder how long it'll take for Ib to get a new shipment. A bit of a shame it sold out so quickly, though can't really blame retailers for not ordering more, 9k is already a lot for retail release of an indie title.

3DS – 97

we love to see it haha

+31 from last week, which is HUGE. And this happening the same week PS5 saw ABYSMAL drop? Not a coincidence. #TheTrueKingIsComingBack

 

[Maronic03]

Don't mind me I'm just pressing the Thanks button on every comments that say something nice about OT2.

 

[ktpoison]

I was a bit disappointed with IB digital pre-orders rankings, nice to see that the retail release was good! Digital sales seem to be doing better too!


New Splatfest announced for next month. Eggstra Work, Salmon Run new Event, is also scheduled to run for the first time in April.

 

[AruanaRiva]

Considering this week switch HW perform better than its second year week align sales. I will said it is great performance for such aged platform now.

 

[ILikeFeet]

how's stock for PS5s?

 

[wolftendo]

Pacman is nonexistant now.

The switch and the PS5 are eye-to-eye YTD nowadays. I wonder if the PS5 will manage to sell more than the switch this year by the end of the year. The current baseline would have to be maintained for that to happen though, and ample stock would have to be relocated to Japan to make that happen.

 

[Aostia82]

Considering this week switch HW perform better than its second year week align sales. I will said it is great performance for such aged platform now.

and was able to avoid being beaten by PS5 YtD too! at least it postponed the overtaking by 1 week!

 

[J.T.]

I haven't closely followed Media Create sales numbers over the years. Two quick questions

1) Are these all just physical units only?
2) What is the split these days in Japan for digital : physical. Is it something like 70 digital 30 physical now?

 

[Astrogamer]

I haven't closely followed Media Create sales numbers over the years. Two quick questions

1) Are these all just physical units only?
2) What is the split these days in Japan for digital : physical. Is it something like 70 digital 30 physical now?

This is just physical. Media Create's numbers can include some digital but, Famitsu is all physical.

The split for digital for near launch and ignoring Nintendo's digital voucher system is like 65-75% physical and 25-35% digital for most games. Some games (i.e. games that are understocked like the original Octopath Traveler) have relatively high digital sales and Nintendo's vouchers tend to push it to past 50% digital

 

[Lelouch0612]

I haven't closely followed Media Create sales numbers over the years. Two quick questions

1) Are these all just physical units only?
2) What is the split these days in Japan for digital : physical. Is it something like 70 digital 30 physical now?

1) Yes those numbers are retail only

2) It depends greatly on the kind of software we are talking about and how far away from launch.

Historically, Japan is one of the strongest physical market thanks to a strong used market that makes retail very enticing.

However, the introducer of vouchers on Nintendo Switch is pushing the digital ratio up since it offers a discount on digital copies :

For game priced at:
- 6.000¥ : ~30% digital share
- 7.000¥ : ~50% digital share
- 8.000¥ : ~65% digital share

Other factors have an impact (was the game out of stock, is it MP-only, were there any digital perks). Digital share has a first peak at launch, then decreases until the game gets its first digital discounts.

More generally, I would say for games charting right now, you are closer to a 30% digital share on consoles.

 

[demi]

do we have any regional ps+ extra/premium subscriber numbers? could add to understanding the software situation.

 

[Man God]

Retail shortages also push gamers toward digital even when their preference might be physical. We've seen it a number of times.

 

[TheSilentWombat]

do we have any regional ps+ extra/premium subscriber numbers? could add to understanding the software situation.

I don't believe so, but the software situation was dire before the new tiers were introduced and it doesn't seem to have had a negative software impact on any other market, so I don't think it works as an explanation for the present software sales.

 

[Arynio]

So good to see nice legs for OT2! PS5 demand seems to be normalising gradually.

Pacman is nonexistant now.

The switch and the PS5 are eye-to-eye YTD nowadays. I wonder if the PS5 will manage to sell more than the switch this year by the end of the year. The current baseline would have to be maintained for that to happen though, and ample stock would have to be relocated to Japan to make that happen.

Is it a matter of stock or demand, though? I'd be more than surprised if demand for PS5 in 2023 exceeds 2.5M (which would already become a high for PlayStation in many many years). I don't think expecting PS5 to match Switch this year is realistic, unless the Switch successor also happens before the year ends.

 

[Charamiwa]

Steam Deck is coming to some retail stores in Japan, Hong Kong, Taiwan and South Korea, through the reseller Komodo and Acer Gaming. Komodo was already the company used by Valve to be able to order your Deck online in those regions.

No details about where in Japan this will drop and it will probably be a small affair, but still it's pretty cool. Famitsu tracking when?