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Media Create Prediction League : September 2023 [FULL RESULTS !]
- Thread starter Lelouch0612
- Replies 69
- Views 3,839
- Start date
- Predictions
Uhm, I would like to change my prediction for Dragon Quest, please.
Dragon Quest: The Adventure of Dai results
OP
OP
- Thread starter
- #55
[NSW] Dragon Quest: The Adventure of Dai
Dai came out well below IB expectations and the Dragon Quest historical performances. With less than 25.000 units sold at launch, the error margin of the consensus on the Switch version is a staggering 230% !
Congrats to @brutaka3 with their very good 28.000 units prediction, @MarcoP90 and @Hiska-kun are also close and at #2 and #3. The top 3 was below 25% of error margin this time around.
[PS5+PS4] Dragon Quest: The Adventure of Dai
Dai came out well below IB expectations and the Dragon Quest historical performances. With less than 15.000 units sold at launch, the error margin of the consensus on the PS versions is a staggering 183% !
Once again, congrats to @MarcoP90 with their very good 13.004 units prediction, @brutaka3 and @Hiska-kun are also also close and at #2 and #3. The top 3 was similar than for the Switch SKU, and is below 25% of error margin too.
Dai came out well below IB expectations and the Dragon Quest historical performances. With less than 25.000 units sold at launch, the error margin of the consensus on the Switch version is a staggering 230% !
Congrats to @brutaka3 with their very good 28.000 units prediction, @MarcoP90 and @Hiska-kun are also close and at #2 and #3. The top 3 was below 25% of error margin this time around.
[PS5+PS4] Dragon Quest: The Adventure of Dai
Dai came out well below IB expectations and the Dragon Quest historical performances. With less than 15.000 units sold at launch, the error margin of the consensus on the PS versions is a staggering 183% !
Once again, congrats to @MarcoP90 with their very good 13.004 units prediction, @brutaka3 and @Hiska-kun are also also close and at #2 and #3. The top 3 was similar than for the Switch SKU, and is below 25% of error margin too.
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Prediction Mess: The Adventure of Die 
OP
OP
- Thread starter
- #59
Better now ?
Ys, Fate & EA FC results
OP
OP
- Thread starter
- #60
Ys X: Nordics
While sales were still overestimated, there was not a lot of variance between the different predictions. Historical sales helped to have a precise idea on where it'll land, even if declining sales of Falcom titles and a newly released Switch SKU day and date added some complexity. IB consensus ended 24% off the mark !
Congrats to @Iraiza with their exceptional 45.000 units prediction, @ikaben and @Maluigi are closing the podium at #2 and #3. Overall 12 members were below 15% of error margin so congrats to them too !
Fate/Samurai Remnant
Another overestimation if we go by Install Base's predictions. Overall the new Fate game ended up around 30.000 units below the consensus.
Congrats to @kamaitachi with their exceptional 68.000 units prediction, @Iraiza and @Yeshua are closing the podium both tied at #2. Overall 5 members were below 5% of error margin so congrats to @Hiska-kun and @Lelouch0612 too !
EA FC 24
EA FC showed growth over the last version of FIFA, thanks to a bigger contribution from the PS5 and Switch version. Still, the IB consensus is 12.9% too high.
Congrats to @TheSilentWombat with their exceptional 42.000 units prediction, @Limabean01 and @kamaitachi / @Richter Belmont / @Nocturnal are closing the podium at #2 and #3. Overall 13 members were below 10% of error margin so congrats to them !
While sales were still overestimated, there was not a lot of variance between the different predictions. Historical sales helped to have a precise idea on where it'll land, even if declining sales of Falcom titles and a newly released Switch SKU day and date added some complexity. IB consensus ended 24% off the mark !
Congrats to @Iraiza with their exceptional 45.000 units prediction, @ikaben and @Maluigi are closing the podium at #2 and #3. Overall 12 members were below 15% of error margin so congrats to them too !
Fate/Samurai Remnant
Another overestimation if we go by Install Base's predictions. Overall the new Fate game ended up around 30.000 units below the consensus.
Congrats to @kamaitachi with their exceptional 68.000 units prediction, @Iraiza and @Yeshua are closing the podium both tied at #2. Overall 5 members were below 5% of error margin so congrats to @Hiska-kun and @Lelouch0612 too !
EA FC 24
EA FC showed growth over the last version of FIFA, thanks to a bigger contribution from the PS5 and Switch version. Still, the IB consensus is 12.9% too high.
Congrats to @TheSilentWombat with their exceptional 42.000 units prediction, @Limabean01 and @kamaitachi / @Richter Belmont / @Nocturnal are closing the podium at #2 and #3. Overall 13 members were below 10% of error margin so congrats to them !
Full results !
OP
OP
- Thread starter
- #61
Congrats to @Hiska-kun for being the top predictor of the month and to @brutaka3 and @MarcoP90 who round up the podium very nicely. It was a brutal month with only one predictor below 20% error margin on average. We even had a member going over 200% of error margin.
Overall the IB consensus was way off the mark, at #21 for the month, almost 100% off the mark on average. Let's hope we'll do better in October !
Speaking of it, you can already predict for the upcoming Prediction League, so see you there too
Media Create Prediction League : October 2023 [CLOSED!]
Hello everyone ! While we are still waiting on the final results of July to September, sorry for the delay (again!), it is now time to open the October edition of the Prediction League ! We are aiming to host this prediction contest every month, when the release schedule allows it. The rules...
www.installbaseforum.com
- Pronouns
- He
Congrats to @Hiska-kun for being the top predictor of the month and to @brutaka3 and @MarcoP90 who round up the podium very nicely. It was a brutal month with only one predictor below 20% error margin on average. We even had a member going over 200% of error margin.
Overall the IB consensus was way off the mark, at #21 for the month, almost 100% off the mark on average. Let's hope we'll do better in October !
Speaking of it, you can already predict for the upcoming Prediction League, so see you there too
Media Create Prediction League : October 2023 [CLOSED!]
Hello everyone ! While we are still waiting on the final results of July to September, sorry for the delay (again!), it is now time to open the October edition of the Prediction League ! We are aiming to host this prediction contest every month, when the release schedule allows it. The rules...
My strategy of bet the lowest possible worked. lol
This month everything sold less than the expected.
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Not a great performance, but as part of the group, not awful.
As for my bonus predictions:
Famitsu Sales: Week 38, 2023 (Sep 11 - Sep 17)
05./00. [NSW] Baten Kaitos I & II HD Remaster <Baten Kaitos: Eternal Wings and the Lost Ocean \ Baten Kaitos: Origins> <RPG> (Bandai Namco Entertainment) {2023.09.14} (¥5.400) - 7.975 / NEW <60-80%>
Famitsu Sales: Week 39, 2023 (Sep 18 - Sep 24)
01./00. [NSW] Pikmin 1 + 2 <Pikmin 1 \ Pikmin 2> <ACT> (Nintendo) {2023.09.22} (¥4.527) - 23.941 / NEW <20-40%>
178% error on BK and 105% error on Pikmin - clearly too optimistic about Bamco's ability to market and the Pikmin 4 hype train carrying P1+2 despite the long time since the digital launch. Although my guess for Pikmin 1+2 does seem to be somewhat close to the initial shipment (initial shipment was between 52,852 and 77,645 - so between 7.3% and 37% error if I was predicting initial shipment).
As for hardware actuals:
[NSW] NSW Hardware (4 weeks) - 280 753 (14% error)
[PS5] PS5 Hardware (4 weeks) - 174 909 (4.7% error)
[XBS] XBS Hardware (4 weeks) - 19 631 (59% error)
XBS is always the hardest to predict, because sometimes it'll just do like 9k in a week for some reason, and given the low numbers to begin with, you end up with big swings because of that. My PS5 prediction was pretty damn good all things considered.
Here's to next month being better for predictions...
As for my bonus predictions:
Large overestimates on the two duology ports:
Famitsu Sales: Week 38, 2023 (Sep 11 - Sep 17)
05./00. [NSW] Baten Kaitos I & II HD Remaster <Baten Kaitos: Eternal Wings and the Lost Ocean \ Baten Kaitos: Origins> <RPG> (Bandai Namco Entertainment) {2023.09.14} (¥5.400) - 7.975 / NEW <60-80%>
Famitsu Sales: Week 39, 2023 (Sep 18 - Sep 24)
01./00. [NSW] Pikmin 1 + 2 <Pikmin 1 \ Pikmin 2> <ACT> (Nintendo) {2023.09.22} (¥4.527) - 23.941 / NEW <20-40%>
178% error on BK and 105% error on Pikmin - clearly too optimistic about Bamco's ability to market and the Pikmin 4 hype train carrying P1+2 despite the long time since the digital launch. Although my guess for Pikmin 1+2 does seem to be somewhat close to the initial shipment (initial shipment was between 52,852 and 77,645 - so between 7.3% and 37% error if I was predicting initial shipment).
As for hardware actuals:
[NSW] NSW Hardware (4 weeks) - 280 753 (14% error)
[PS5] PS5 Hardware (4 weeks) - 174 909 (4.7% error)
[XBS] XBS Hardware (4 weeks) - 19 631 (59% error)
XBS is always the hardest to predict, because sometimes it'll just do like 9k in a week for some reason, and given the low numbers to begin with, you end up with big swings because of that. My PS5 prediction was pretty damn good all things considered.
Here's to next month being better for predictions...
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the one month i try being optimistic… 
It's best for me to just forget about this month completely.