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Media Create Prediction League : September 2022 [FULL RESULTS !]
- Thread starter Lelouch0612
- Replies 90
- Views 5,964
- Start date
- Predictions
[NSW] Splatoon 3 (3 days) - 1.788.000
[NSW] Dragon Quest X Offline (4 days) - 138.000
[PS4+PS5] Dragon Quest X Offline (4 days) - 67.000
[NSW] Taiko no Tatsujin (2 weeks) - 126.000
[PS4+PS5] Valkyrie Elysium (4 days) - 43.000
[NSW] Dragon Quest X Offline (4 days) - 138.000
[PS4+PS5] Dragon Quest X Offline (4 days) - 67.000
[NSW] Taiko no Tatsujin (2 weeks) - 126.000
[PS4+PS5] Valkyrie Elysium (4 days) - 43.000
OP
OP
- Thread starter
- #54
Less than 4H left !
[NSW] Splatoon 3 (3 days) - 1.111.111
[NSW] Dragon Quest X Offline (4 days) - 100.000
[PS4+PS5] Dragon Quest X Offline (4 days) - 35.000
[NSW] Taiko no Tatsujin (2 weeks) - 60.000
[PS4+PS5] Valkyrie Elysium (4 days) - 40.000
[NSW] Dragon Quest X Offline (4 days) - 100.000
[PS4+PS5] Dragon Quest X Offline (4 days) - 35.000
[NSW] Taiko no Tatsujin (2 weeks) - 60.000
[PS4+PS5] Valkyrie Elysium (4 days) - 40.000
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OP
OP
- Thread starter
- #61
On the clock damn
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Currently working on a time machine.
Congrats Tbone for winning the competition
Congrats Tbone for winning the competition
Better wait for Famitsu, digital could surprise.Currently working on a time machine.
Congrats Tbone for winning the competition
50% digital would be 1775k retail, thats higher than almost every prediction! if its less than that then damn, digital could already be at 2mil
Here are the median predictions for September (min <> max):
[NSW] Splatoon 3 (3 days) - 1.600.000 (1.111.111 <> 1.999.999)
[NSW] Dragon Quest X Offline (4 days) - 110.000 (70.000 <> 170.000)
[PS4+PS5] Dragon Quest X Offline (4 days) - 50.000 (25.552 <> 99.000)
[NSW] Taiko no Tatsujin (2 weeks) - 103.111 (39.045 <> 165.000)
[PS4+PS5] Valkyrie Elysium (4 days) - 57.000 (39.000 <> 77.777)
The most bull-ish predictor of the month is @Tbone5189, expecting no less than 2.345.342 units sold across all predictions.
The most bear-ish predictor of the month is @DarkDetective, expecting only 1.346.111 units sold across all predictions.
@MadnB's predictions are closest to the median (in terms of %).
@DarkDetective's predictions are farthest away from the median.
In my defense, I forgot to make predictions until the very last evening before the deadline, I was very tired, and I made some very stupid miscalculations...
[NSW] Splatoon 3 (3 days) - 1.600.000 (1.111.111 <> 1.999.999)
[NSW] Dragon Quest X Offline (4 days) - 110.000 (70.000 <> 170.000)
[PS4+PS5] Dragon Quest X Offline (4 days) - 50.000 (25.552 <> 99.000)
[NSW] Taiko no Tatsujin (2 weeks) - 103.111 (39.045 <> 165.000)
[PS4+PS5] Valkyrie Elysium (4 days) - 57.000 (39.000 <> 77.777)
The most bull-ish predictor of the month is @Tbone5189, expecting no less than 2.345.342 units sold across all predictions.
The most bear-ish predictor of the month is @DarkDetective, expecting only 1.346.111 units sold across all predictions.
@MadnB's predictions are closest to the median (in terms of %).
@DarkDetective's predictions are farthest away from the median.
In my defense, I forgot to make predictions until the very last evening before the deadline, I was very tired, and I made some very stupid miscalculations...
OP
OP
- Thread starter
- #69
Splatoon 3
The Install Base consensus was high (1.6m FW at retail) but still around 300.000 units too low for Splatoon 3. The game managed a record-breaking 3.45m (retail + digital) and had the biggest opening on Switch and ever in Japan (beating AC's 2.63m launch).
Congrats to @kyo2004 with their excellent 1.956.000 prediction, followed by @Nocturnal and @cejuilla at #2 and #3. All of them were below 2.5% of error margin ! Overall they were only 2 members that overpredicted Splatoon 3 and they were both in the top 4 (@kyo2004 and @Tbone5189)
The Install Base consensus was high (1.6m FW at retail) but still around 300.000 units too low for Splatoon 3. The game managed a record-breaking 3.45m (retail + digital) and had the biggest opening on Switch and ever in Japan (beating AC's 2.63m launch).
Congrats to @kyo2004 with their excellent 1.956.000 prediction, followed by @Nocturnal and @cejuilla at #2 and #3. All of them were below 2.5% of error margin ! Overall they were only 2 members that overpredicted Splatoon 3 and they were both in the top 4 (@kyo2004 and @Tbone5189)
OP
OP
- Thread starter
- #70
Dragon Quest X Offline (NSW)
The Install Base consensus was a little over 100k for the Switch SKU but it managed around 30.000 units more. The game faced severe supply issues so its retail potential was even higher than that.
Congrats to @Tbone5189 with their excellent 144.000 prediction, a mere 608 units off the mark, followed by @Bruno MB and @YuriCastro at #2 and #3. All of them were below 1.0% of error margin !
Dragon Quest X Offline (PS)
The overperformance of DQXO extended to the PS SKUs. Overall, the sales were around 50% higher than expected, with only two members overestimating the game.
Congrats to @Gatsu with their great 72.000 prediction followed by @Deluxury and @Agent42 at #2 and #3.
Overall it is pretty clear that the game outperformed our and retailers' expectations. Never underestimate Dragon Quest I suppose !
The Install Base consensus was a little over 100k for the Switch SKU but it managed around 30.000 units more. The game faced severe supply issues so its retail potential was even higher than that.
Congrats to @Tbone5189 with their excellent 144.000 prediction, a mere 608 units off the mark, followed by @Bruno MB and @YuriCastro at #2 and #3. All of them were below 1.0% of error margin !
Dragon Quest X Offline (PS)
The overperformance of DQXO extended to the PS SKUs. Overall, the sales were around 50% higher than expected, with only two members overestimating the game.
Congrats to @Gatsu with their great 72.000 prediction followed by @Deluxury and @Agent42 at #2 and #3.
Overall it is pretty clear that the game outperformed our and retailers' expectations. Never underestimate Dragon Quest I suppose !
- Pronouns
- He/Him/His
I mean, I already know that I am literally last for DQXO PS4/PS5 so I'm defo gonna be down there with you.
What a great month for me.
Already 300k off for Splatoon 3, and 30k and 27k for DQX, Switch/Playstation respectively.
Already 300k off for Splatoon 3, and 30k and 27k for DQX, Switch/Playstation respectively.
- Pronouns
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Hey mods, can you delete my prediction?/s
[NSW] Taiko no Tatsujin (2 weeks) - 103.111 (39.045 <> 165.000)
Reality
One week number)02./00. [NSW] Taiko no Tatsujin: Rhythm Festival <ACT> (Bandai Namco Entertainment) {2022.09.22} (¥5.980) - 31.085 / NEW
Edit: I didn't do the sad face on purpose, it just makes it funnier
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I expected Rhythm Festival to launch higher than Drum 'n' Fun. Only a week before launch I realized it would be lower.Hey mods, can you delete my prediction?/s
[NSW] Taiko no Tatsujin (2 weeks) - 103.111 (39.045 <> 165.000)
Reality
02./00. [NSW] Taiko no Tatsujin: Rhythm Festival <ACT> (Bandai Namco Entertainment) {2022.09.22} (¥5.980) - 31.085 / NEW
OP
OP
- Thread starter
- #78
October's Prediction League is now open !
www.installbaseforum.com
Media Create Prediction League : October 2022 [FULL RESULTS]
Hello everyone ! While we are still waiting on the final results of September, it is already time to open the October edition of the Prediction League ! We are aiming to host this prediction contest every month, when the release schedule allows it. The rules are simple, you can make and edit...
www.installbaseforum.com
OP
OP
- Thread starter
- #79
So, hum, Taiko really killed a lot of people's month
- Pronouns
- they/them
The recent news of Drum 'n Fun breaking 1m in Japan alone probably subconsciously raised optimism for many, and personally I think I was mostly misled by GEO where it had higher preorders than most other games including DQX, which I thought would mean very high sales even if GEO was overrepresenting it since Taiko isn't supposed to get high preorders.
+ obviously this kind of game is among the most difficult to estimate launch window sales for
Taiko and Valkyrie results !
OP
OP
- Thread starter
- #81
Taiko no Tatsujin (NSW)
The Install Base consensus was very far from this one. People expected growth over the first Taiko game, however the contrary happened. It managed around 40.000 units in two weeks, over 60.000 units below the IB consensus.
Congrats to @MarcoP90 with their excellent 39.045 prediction, less than 1000 units off the mark. They were followed, with a great gap, by @DarkDetective and @tolkir at #2 and #3. Except Marco, everyone was at least 50% off the mark
Valkyrie Elysium (PS)
The Install Base consensus was too optimistic on this one too. The start is disappointing at retail and retailers/Square definitely expected more. Now, just as other games in the past, the digital early access for the Deluxe version might have impacted very strongly retail sales.
Congrats to @DarkDetective with their excellent 40.000 prediction, less than 500 units off the mark ! They were followed, with a great gap, by @Ystad and @Cocodor at #2 and #3. They were all below a 5% error margin, good job.
The Install Base consensus was very far from this one. People expected growth over the first Taiko game, however the contrary happened. It managed around 40.000 units in two weeks, over 60.000 units below the IB consensus.
Congrats to @MarcoP90 with their excellent 39.045 prediction, less than 1000 units off the mark. They were followed, with a great gap, by @DarkDetective and @tolkir at #2 and #3. Except Marco, everyone was at least 50% off the mark
Valkyrie Elysium (PS)
The Install Base consensus was too optimistic on this one too. The start is disappointing at retail and retailers/Square definitely expected more. Now, just as other games in the past, the digital early access for the Deluxe version might have impacted very strongly retail sales.
Congrats to @DarkDetective with their excellent 40.000 prediction, less than 500 units off the mark ! They were followed, with a great gap, by @Ystad and @Cocodor at #2 and #3. They were all below a 5% error margin, good job.
Full results !
OP
OP
- Thread starter
- #82
Congrats to @MarcoP90 for being the top predictor of the month and to @tolkir and @DarkDetective who round up the podium very nicely.
It was a peculiar month with many releases being below the 50k treshold that I have in mind when picking games for the month. This is especially odd when we also have a mega-seller like Splatoon 3. As a result, we have a situation where @DarkDetective can be #3 in %error and last (#53) in units
Hopefully, we'll do better in October
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Marco with a gigantic lead
I actually thought that I was going to be in last position. Position 19 is good enough for me.
Worst month for me ever. Taiko and Valkyrie are to blame.
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Second-to-last! And it gets even worse when I add my extra prediction for NSW hardware:
Error: 73.7% (I think)
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At least I was in top half in terms of units, thanks to an alright Splatoon 3 prediction.
Actual NSW Hardware (35 Days) - 565,559
Error: 73.7% (I think)
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At least I was in top half in terms of units, thanks to an alright Splatoon 3 prediction.