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Media Create Prediction League : September 2022 [FULL RESULTS !]

BoktaiFan

Member
Pronouns
He/Him
[NSW] Splatoon 3 (3 days) - 1,751,000
[NSW] Dragon Quest X Offline (4 days) - 125,000
[PS4+PS5] Dragon Quest X Offline (4 days) - 55,500
[NSW] Taiko no Tatsujin (2 weeks) - 165,00
[PS4+PS5] Valkyrie Elysium (4 days) - 55,500
 
[NSW] Splatoon 3 (3 days) - 1.788.000
[NSW] Dragon Quest X Offline (4 days) - 138.000
[PS4+PS5] Dragon Quest X Offline (4 days) - 67.000
[NSW] Taiko no Tatsujin (2 weeks) - 126.000
[PS4+PS5] Valkyrie Elysium (4 days) - 43.000
 

Hiska-kun

Moderator
Pronouns
He
[NSW] Splatoon 3 (3 days) - 1.511.111
[NSW] Dragon Quest X Offline (4 days) - 102.222
[PS4+PS5] Dragon Quest X Offline (4 days) - 48.888
[NSW] Taiko no Tatsujin (2 weeks) - 99.999
[PS4+PS5] Valkyrie Elysium (4 days) - 53.333
 

DarkDetective

真実はいつもひとつ! There's only one truth
Staff
[NSW] Splatoon 3 (3 days) - 1.111.111
[NSW] Dragon Quest X Offline (4 days) - 100.000
[PS4+PS5] Dragon Quest X Offline (4 days) - 35.000
[NSW] Taiko no Tatsujin (2 weeks) - 60.000
[PS4+PS5] Valkyrie Elysium (4 days) - 40.000
 
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PillFencer

Meat is murder
Member
Pronouns
they/them
My therapist: Evil Tbone is not real they can't hurt you

9815enobT:
[NSW] Splatoon 3 (3 days) - 1.111.111
[NSW] Dragon Quest X Offline (4 days) - 90.000
[PS4+PS5] Dragon Quest X Offline (4 days) - 30.000
[NSW] Taiko no Tatsujin (2 weeks) - 60.000
[PS4+PS5] Valkyrie Elysium (4 days) - 40.000
 

tolkir

Base instalada
Member
[NSW] Splatoon 3 (3 days) - 1,629,752
[NSW] Dragon Quest X Offline (4 days) - 122,235
[PS4+PS5] Dragon Quest X Offline (4 days) - 50,457
[NSW] Taiko no Tatsujin (2 weeks) - 72,112
[PS4+PS5] Valkyrie Elysium (4 days) - 44,232
 

Cocodor

Member
[NSW] Splatoon 3 (3 days) - 1.432.000
[NSW] Dragon Quest X Offline (4 days) - 101.000
[PS4+PS5] Dragon Quest X Offline (4 days) - 49.000
[NSW] Taiko no Tatsujin (2 weeks) - 85.000
[PS4+PS5] Valkyrie Elysium (4 days) - 42.000
 
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mjw

Member
Whoops, almost forgot

[NSW] Splatoon 3 (3 days) - 1701k
[NSW] Dragon Quest X Offline (4 days) - 92k
[PS4+PS5] Dragon Quest X Offline (4 days) - 42k
[NSW] Taiko no Tatsujin (2 weeks) - 83k
[PS4+PS5] Valkyrie Elysium (4 days) - 44k
 

MarcoP90

Moderator
[NSW] Splatoon 3 (3 days) - 1.587.000
[NSW] Dragon Quest X Offline (4 days) - 135.203
[PS4+PS5] Dragon Quest X Offline (4 days) - 44.198
[NSW] Taiko no Tatsujin (2 weeks) - 39.045
[PS4+PS5] Valkyrie Elysium (4 days) - 49.980
 
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Lelouch0612

Lelouch0612

Staff
[NSW] Splatoon 3 (3 days) - 1.587.000
[NSW] Dragon Quest X Offline (4 days) - 135.203
[PS4+PS5] Dragon Quest X Offline (4 days) - 44.198
[NSW] Taiko no Tatsujin (2 weeks) - 39.045
[PS4+PS5] Valkyrie Elysium (4 days) - 49.980
On the clock damn
 

kyo2004

The Glitching Soldier...
Member
First time in being so close to the actual number... XD... Now to being the usual self and be way off in the rest of my predictions... XD
 

DarkDetective

真実はいつもひとつ! There's only one truth
Staff
Here are the median predictions for September (min <> max):

[NSW] Splatoon 3 (3 days) - 1.600.000 (1.111.111 <> 1.999.999)
[NSW] Dragon Quest X Offline (4 days) - 110.000 (70.000 <> 170.000)
[PS4+PS5] Dragon Quest X Offline (4 days) - 50.000 (25.552 <> 99.000)
[NSW] Taiko no Tatsujin (2 weeks) - 103.111 (39.045 <> 165.000)
[PS4+PS5] Valkyrie Elysium (4 days) - 57.000 (39.000 <> 77.777)

The most bull-ish predictor of the month is @Tbone5189, expecting no less than 2.345.342 units sold across all predictions.
The most bear-ish predictor of the month is @DarkDetective, expecting only 1.346.111 units sold across all predictions.


@MadnB's predictions are closest to the median (in terms of %).
@DarkDetective's predictions are farthest away from the median.

In my defense, I forgot to make predictions until the very last evening before the deadline, I was very tired, and I made some very stupid miscalculations...
 

ktpoison

Member
I changed my prediction from 1.782.491 to 1.882.491, but changed it back last minute... Worst mistake, should have believed in Tbone-Nocturnal powers more...
 
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Lelouch0612

Lelouch0612

Staff
Splatoon 3

3UPTDYx.png


The Install Base consensus was high (1.6m FW at retail) but still around 300.000 units too low for Splatoon 3. The game managed a record-breaking 3.45m (retail + digital) and had the biggest opening on Switch and ever in Japan (beating AC's 2.63m launch).

Congrats to @kyo2004 with their excellent 1.956.000 prediction, followed by @Nocturnal and @cejuilla at #2 and #3. All of them were below 2.5% of error margin ! Overall they were only 2 members that overpredicted Splatoon 3 and they were both in the top 4 (@kyo2004 and @Tbone5189)
 
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Lelouch0612

Lelouch0612

Staff
Dragon Quest X Offline (NSW)

kyhKLfi.png



The Install Base consensus was a little over 100k for the Switch SKU but it managed around 30.000 units more. The game faced severe supply issues so its retail potential was even higher than that.

Congrats to @Tbone5189 with their excellent 144.000 prediction, a mere 608 units off the mark, followed by @Bruno MB and @YuriCastro at #2 and #3. All of them were below 1.0% of error margin !

Dragon Quest X Offline (PS)

FaRr7Tf.png


The overperformance of DQXO extended to the PS SKUs. Overall, the sales were around 50% higher than expected, with only two members overestimating the game.

Congrats to @Gatsu with their great 72.000 prediction followed by @Deluxury and @Agent42 at #2 and #3.

Overall it is pretty clear that the game outperformed our and retailers' expectations. Never underestimate Dragon Quest I suppose !
 

Fatih_656

I want a Doner kebab
Member
Pronouns
He
[NSW] Splatoon 3 (3 days) - 1.611.111
[NSW] Dragon Quest X Offline (4 days) - 117.222
[PS4+PS5] Dragon Quest X Offline (4 days) - 52.777
[NSW] Taiko no Tatsujin (2 weeks) - 103.111
[PS4+PS5] Valkyrie Elysium (4 days) - 70.777
Hey mods, can you delete my prediction?/s

[NSW] Taiko no Tatsujin (2 weeks) - 103.111 (39.045 <> 165.000)
Reality:(One week number)
02./00. [NSW] Taiko no Tatsujin: Rhythm Festival <ACT> (Bandai Namco Entertainment) {2022.09.22} (¥5.980) - 31.085 / NEW
Edit: I didn't do the sad face on purpose, it just makes it funnier
 
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BTB123

Can't wait for TotK
Member
Hey mods, can you delete my prediction?/s

[NSW] Taiko no Tatsujin (2 weeks) - 103.111 (39.045 <> 165.000)
Reality:(One week number)
02./00. [NSW] Taiko no Tatsujin: Rhythm Festival <ACT> (Bandai Namco Entertainment) {2022.09.22} (¥5.980) - 31.085 / NEW
I expected Rhythm Festival to launch higher than Drum 'n' Fun. Only a week before launch I realized it would be lower.
 
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Lelouch0612

Lelouch0612

Staff
October's Prediction League is now open !

 

PillFencer

Meat is murder
Member
Pronouns
they/them
So, hum, Taiko really killed a lot of people's month
The recent news of Drum 'n Fun breaking 1m in Japan alone probably subconsciously raised optimism for many, and personally I think I was mostly misled by GEO where it had higher preorders than most other games including DQX, which I thought would mean very high sales even if GEO was overrepresenting it since Taiko isn't supposed to get high preorders.

+ obviously this kind of game is among the most difficult to estimate launch window sales for
 
Taiko and Valkyrie results !
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Lelouch0612

Lelouch0612

Staff
Taiko no Tatsujin (NSW)

tN6mO78.png


The Install Base consensus was very far from this one. People expected growth over the first Taiko game, however the contrary happened. It managed around 40.000 units in two weeks, over 60.000 units below the IB consensus.

Congrats to @MarcoP90 with their excellent 39.045 prediction, less than 1000 units off the mark. They were followed, with a great gap, by @DarkDetective and @tolkir at #2 and #3. Except Marco, everyone was at least 50% off the mark 🥶

Valkyrie Elysium (PS)

gXv6DwQ.png


The Install Base consensus was too optimistic on this one too. The start is disappointing at retail and retailers/Square definitely expected more. Now, just as other games in the past, the digital early access for the Deluxe version might have impacted very strongly retail sales.

Congrats to @DarkDetective with their excellent 40.000 prediction, less than 500 units off the mark ! They were followed, with a great gap, by @Ystad and @Cocodor at #2 and #3. They were all below a 5% error margin, good job.
 
Full results !
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Lelouch0612

Lelouch0612

Staff
zQyPrw4.png

hTjcfve.png


Congrats to @MarcoP90 for being the top predictor of the month and to @tolkir and @DarkDetective who round up the podium very nicely.

It was a peculiar month with many releases being below the 50k treshold that I have in mind when picking games for the month. This is especially odd when we also have a mega-seller like Splatoon 3. As a result, we have a situation where @DarkDetective can be #3 in %error and last (#53) in units :p

Hopefully, we'll do better in October ;)
 

Spikeylord

Member
Pronouns
He/Him/His
Second-to-last! And it gets even worse when I add my extra prediction for NSW hardware:

BONUS - NSW Hardware (35 days) - 325,523
Actual NSW Hardware (35 Days) - 565,559

Error: 73.7% (I think)

---

At least I was in top half in terms of units, thanks to an alright Splatoon 3 prediction.
 
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