Media Create Prediction League : October 2023 [FULL RESULTS!]

[Fisico]

The results

[NSW] The Return of Detective Pikachu (3 days) - 85,639
[PS5] Spider-Man 2 (3 days) - 77,348
[NSW] Super Mario Bros. Wonder (3 days) - 638,634
[PS5+NSW] Metal Gear Solid Collection Volume 1 (6 days) - 33,047
[NSW] Switch hardware (28 days) - 283,122

At first glance almost everyone overpredicted everything except Spiderman that the vast majority underpredicted, and Detective Pikachu which was a bit more balanced but still overpredicted

 

[Lelouch0612]

[NSW] The Return of Detective Pikachu

Detective Pikachu came out a bit below IB expectations. This is a record launch for the subseries, helped in a big part by the gifted Promo card that gave a very unusual preorders curve to the title. With around 85.000 units sold at launch, the error margin of the IB consensus is 17%.

Congrats to @ikaben with their excellent 86.000 units prediction, @Richter Belmont and @NinnyKirby are also close and at #2 and #3. In total, 15 members were below 10% of error margin, big congrats to them !

[PS5] Marvel's Spider-Man 2

Spider-Man 2 came out a bit above IB expectations. With around 77.000 units sold at launch, the error margin of the IB consensus is also 17%.

Congrats to @sfortunato with their very good 75.000 units prediction, @Welfare and @Eren Jaeger are also close and tied at #2. In total, 10 members were below 10% of error margin, big congrats to them !

 

[Lelouch0612]

[NSW] Super Mario Bros. Wonder

Super Mario Bros. Wonder came out below IB expectations. This is a launch about on par with previous subseries record holder, NSMBWii, when factoring digital sales. Retail sales alone were however below the two DS/Wii entries. With around 640.000 units sold at launch, the error margin of the IB consensus is 39%.

Congrats to @Bodokoh with their very good 650.000 units prediction, @Chris1964 and @Fatih_656 are also close at #2 and #3. In total, 5 members were below 5% of error margin, huge congrats to them !

[PS5+NSW] Metal Gear Solid Collection

MGS Collection came out below IB expectations. With around 33.000 units sold at launch, the error margin of the IB consensus is 34%.

Congrats to @tolkir with their very good 34.233 units prediction, @Tbone5189 and @Yeshua/ @Ystad are also close at #2 and #3. In total, 8 members were below 10% of error margin, big congrats to them !

[NSW] Switch hardware (4 weeks)

Switch hardware came out below IB expectations. With around 280.000 units sold at launch, the error margin of the IB consensus is 23%.

Congrats to @Iraiza with their excellent 280.000 units prediction, @Damage2 and @Welfare are bit farther at #2 and #3. In total, 7 members were below 10% of error margin, big congrats to them !

 

[Lelouch0612]

Congrats to @NinnyKirby for being the top predictor of the month and to @Damage2 and @ikaben who round up the podium very nicely. It was a pretty tough month with 9 predictors below 20% error margin.

Overall the IB consensus was off the mark, at #17 for the month, with a 25,9% error margin on average.

Congrats and thanks everyone !

 

[BTB123]

Yooo, that's my best result yet. I don't think I've ever even been in the top 10 before.

 

[Maluigi]

Congrats to @NinnyKirby for being the top predictor of the month and to @Damage2 and @ikaben who round up the podium very nicely. It was a pretty tough month with 9 predictors below 20% error margin.

Overall the IB consensus was off the mark, at #17 for the month, with a 25,9% error margin on average.

Congrats and thanks everyone !

I was never this bad in any prediction.

 

[Aleh]

Could have been worse

 

[Malden]

I've done worse I guess.

 

[Eren Jaeger]

Spider-Man 2 saved me. Otherwise, I could've been way worse.

 

[ikaben]

I'll probably retire now, I'm never going to top this month.

 

[AK World]

OK placement for me for October, at least much better than what I'll rank at for November.