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Media Create Prediction League : October 2022 [FULL RESULTS]

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Lelouch0612

Lelouch0612

Staff
Archivist Genius Staff
Hello everyone !

While we are still waiting on the final results of September, it is already time to open the October edition of the Prediction League !

We are aiming to host this prediction contest every month, when the release schedule allows it. The rules are simple, you can make and edit your prediction on the following titles until October 9th 23:59 CEST which basically means that as soon the COMG orders chart is updated, you can no longer change your prediction. So don't edit your post after that deadline.

At the end of the month, the results will be shared and the predictors will be ranked by units and %mean error. This is the second yearly edition of this contest already.

The tracked period will be October 3rd to October 30th (4 weeks). I also ask you to respect the following formatting :

[Platform] Full name of the game (number of days accounted) : 100 000

Now let's get things started with the October edition of the Media Create Prediction League !

[NSW] Nier Automata (4 days) -
[NSW] Persona 5 Royal (3 days) -
[PS4+PS5] Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (3 days) -
[NSW] Bayonetta 3 (3 days) -
[PS4+PS5] Star Ocean 6 (4 days) -

If you have any remarks or suggestions, don't hesitate to share !

Media Create Prediction League : January 2022
Media Create Prediction League : February 2022
Media Create Prediction League : March 2022
 
First! Getting my initial predictions out asap, but for anyone thinking even the tiniest bit of orienting their predictions off mine: Don't ^^ I'll probably edit my predictions once I see how off I am from everyone else. Here goes:

[NSW] Nier Automata (4 days) - 69 000
[NSW] Persona 5 Royal (3 days) - 145 000
[PS4+PS5] Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (3 days) - 58 000
[NSW] Bayonetta 3 (3 days) - 49 000
[PS4+PS5] Star Ocean 6 (4 days) - 51 000

- Nier is old and not the best version on Switch; however, it has grown as a franchise and the Switch hw install base might motivate lots of new players to give it a try
- I'm being bullish here; despite digital sales existing, too, I think this port has the chance to completely explode. My prediction's greatest enemy: Undershipping
- No idea about CoD, will edit later
- the 2nd game had like 45k FW and while that was on the Wii U, I have no confidence in the franchise. 67k + digital sales should make for a good opening week
- SO5 sold 100k FW; with PS on the decline and the game looking terrible imo, I'm thinking of something like a 35k PS4, 15k PS5 split

Edit:

Original prediction, DOES NOT COUNT:
[NSW] Nier Automata (4 days) - 117 000
[NSW] Persona 5 Royal (3 days) - 238 000
[PS4+PS5] Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (3 days) - 58 000
[NSW] Bayonetta 3 (3 days) - 67 000
[PS4+PS5] Star Ocean 6 (4 days) - 51 000
 
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[NSW] Nier Automata (4 days) - 41.000
[NSW] Persona 5 Royal (3 days) - 48.000
[PS4+PS5] Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (3 days) - 55.000
[NSW] Bayonetta 3 (3 days) - 52.000
[PS4+PS5] Star Ocean 6 (4 days) - 62.000
 
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[NSW] Nier Automata (4 days) - 100.000
[NSW] Persona 5 Royal (3 days) - 140.000
[PS4+PS5] Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (3 days) - 50.000
[NSW] Bayonetta 3 (3 days) - 75.000
[PS4+PS5] Star Ocean 6 (4 days) - 55.000
[NSW Hardware] 360.000
 
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Malden said:
Bonus round:
[NSW] Mario+ Rabbids Sparks of Hope (3 days) - 75,000 (first game launched at 66,692 so going a tad higher. Wanted to say 100k honestly)
Click to expand...
Good luck with selling that in October, the game launches December 2 :p

Edit: btw @Lelouch0612 just to be 100% sure we only predict the Switch SKU for P5R? (as in, no PS5)
 
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[NSW] Nier Automata (4 days) - 41.000
[NSW] Persona 5 Royal (3 days) - 51.000
[PS4+PS5] Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (3 days) - 48.000
[NSW] Bayonetta 3 (3 days) - 61.000
[PS4+PS5] Star Ocean 6 (4 days) - 55.000
 
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[NSW] Nier Automata (4 days) - 52 000
[NSW] Persona 5 Royal (3 days) - 68 000
[PS4+PS5] Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (3 days) - 65 000
[NSW] Bayonetta 3 (3 days) - 54 000
[PS4+PS5] Star Ocean 6 (4 days) - 48 000
 
[NSW] Nier Automata (4 days) : 40 000
[NSW] Persona 5 Royal (3 days) : 60 000
[PS4+PS5] Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (3 days) : 70 000
[NSW] Bayonetta 3 (3 days) : 60 000
[PS4+PS5] Star Ocean 6 (4 days) : 50 000
 
[NSW] Nier Automata (4 days) - 53.000
[NSW] Persona 5 Royal (3 days) - 67.000
[PS4+PS5] Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (3 days) - 71.000
[NSW] Bayonetta 3 (3 days) - 82.000
[PS4+PS5] Star Ocean 6 (4 days) - 49.000
 
[NSW] Nier Automata (4 days) - 47.400
[NSW] Persona 5 Royal (3 days) - 65.500
[PS4+PS5] Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (3 days) - 66.700
[NSW] Bayonetta 3 (3 days) - 66.600
[PS4+PS5] Star Ocean 6 (4 days) - 55.600
 
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[NSW] Nier Automata (4 days) - 47,850
[NSW] Persona 5 Royal (3 days) - 57,250
[PS4+PS5] Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (3 days) - 73,300
[NSW] Bayonetta 3 (3 days) - 65,620
[PS4+PS5] Star Ocean 6 (4 days) - 34,000
 
I'm gonna be on high hopes for Nier Automata success in Japan (considering is a 5y port)

[NSW] Nier Automata (4 days) - 87.000
[NSW] Persona 5 Royal (3 days) - 103.400
[PS4+PS5] Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (3 days) - 65.000
[NSW] Bayonetta 3 (3 days) - 73.800
[PS4+PS5] Star Ocean 6 (4 days) - 41.200
 
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[NSW] Nier Automata (4 days) - 46 000
[NSW] Persona 5 Royal (3 days) - 65 000
[PS4+PS5] Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (3 days) - 60 000
[NSW] Bayonetta 3 (3 days) - 61 000
[PS4+PS5] Star Ocean 6 (4 days) - 52 000

Bonus:
[PS5] P5 Royal - 10 000
[NSW] Hardware (4 weeks) - 290 000
 
Last edited:
[NSW] NieR Automata (4 days) - 66,000
[NSW] Persona 5 Royal (3 days) - 103,000
[PS4 + PS5] Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (3 days) - 105,000
[NSW] Bayonetta 3 (3 days) - 77,000
[PS4 + PS5] Star Ocean 6 (4 days) - 44,000
 
[NSW] Nier Automata (4 days) - 39 000
[NSW] Persona 5 Royal (3 days) - 49 500
[PS4+PS5] Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (3 days) - 50 000
[NSW] Bayonetta 3 (3 days) - 68 000
[PS4+PS5] Star Ocean 6 (4 days) - 41 000
 
[NSW] Nier Automata (4 days) - 43.210
[NSW] Persona 5 Royal (3 days) - 45.678
[PS4+PS5] Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (3 days) - 56.789
[NSW] Bayonetta 3 (3 days) - 54.321
[PS4+PS5] Star Ocean 6 (4 days) - 54.321
 
Last edited:
[NSW] Nier Automata (4 days) - 22 000
[NSW] Persona 5 Royal (3 days) - 42 000
[PS4+PS5] Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (3 days) - 70 000
[NSW] Bayonetta 3 (3 days) - 64 000
[PS4+PS5] Star Ocean 6 (4 days) - 90 000
 
[NSW] Nier Automata (4 days) - 44,010
[NSW] Persona 5 Royal (3 days) - 55,010
[PS4+PS5] Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (3 days) - 66,010
[NSW] Bayonetta 3 (3 days) - 50,010
[PS4+PS5] Star Ocean 6 (4 days) - 55,010
 
Last edited:
[NSW] NieR Automata (4 days) - 32,000
[NSW] Persona 5 Royal (3 days) - 47,000
[PS4 + PS5] Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (3 days) - 61,000
[NSW] Bayonetta 3 (3 days) - 69,000
[PS4 + PS5] Star Ocean 6 (4 days) - 46,000
 
[NSW] Nier Automata (4 days) - 60,000
[NSW] Persona 5 Royal (3 days) - 60,000
[PS4+PS5] Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (3 days) - 60,000
[NSW] Bayonetta 3 (3 days) - 60,000
[PS4+PS5] Star Ocean 6 (4 days) - 60,000
 
[NSW] Nier Automata (4 days) - 111.000
[NSW] Persona 5 Royal (3 days) - 133.000
[PS4+PS5] Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (3 days) - 91.000
[NSW] Bayonetta 3 (3 days) - 99.000
[PS4+PS5] Star Ocean 6 (4 days) - 77.000
 
[NSW] Nier Automata (4 days) - 45000
[NSW] Persona 5 Royal (3 days) - 65000
[PS4+PS5] Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (3 days) - 70000
[NSW] Bayonetta 3 (3 days) - 55000
[PS4+PS5] Star Ocean 6 (4 days) - 50 000
 
[NSW] Nier Automata (4 days) - 70.000
[NSW] Persona 5 Royal (3 days) - 85.000
[PS4+PS5] Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (3 days) - 75.000
[NSW] Bayonetta 3 (3 days) - 65.000
[PS4+PS5] Star Ocean 6 (4 days) - 50.000
 
[NSW] Nier Automata (4 days) - 44.444
[NSW] Persona 5 Royal (3 days) - 66.666
[PS4+PS5] Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (3 days) - 38.000
[NSW] Bayonetta 3 (3 days) - 99.999
[PS4+PS5] Star Ocean 6 (4 days) - 42.000
 
Last edited:
[NSW] Nier Automata (4 days) - 58.000
[NSW] Persona 5 Royal (3 days) - 64.000
[PS4+PS5] Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (3 days) - 42.000
[NSW] Bayonetta 3 (3 days) - 75.000
[PS4+PS5] Star Ocean 6 (4 days) - 63.000
 
Last edited:
[NSW] Nier Automata (4 days) - 38.000
[NSW] Persona 5 Royal (3 days) - 44.000
[PS4+PS5] Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (3 days) - 60.000
[NSW] Bayonetta 3 (3 days) - 68.000
[PS4+PS5] Star Ocean 6 (4 days) - 39.000
 
[NSW] Nier Automata (4 days) - 44.000
[NSW] Persona 5 Royal (3 days) - 69.000
[PS4+PS5] Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (3 days) - 91.000
[NSW] Bayonetta 3 (3 days) - 41.000
[PS4+PS5] Star Ocean 6 (4 days) - 52.000
 
It's been a long time since I tried that, tends to be middle of the pack despite overanalyzing when I do try, so I'm go at it in a more random fashion this time


[NSW] Nier Automata (4 days) - 44.444
[NSW] Persona 5 Royal (3 days) - 56.789
[PS4+PS5] Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (3 days) - 54.321
[NSW] Bayonetta 3 (3 days) - 50.123
[PS4+PS5] Star Ocean 6 (4 days) - 65.432

Star Ocean 5 debuted at 137k... 6y ago, last Call of Duty at 41k the lowest it's ever been.
Bayonetta 2 was 21k on NSW 4y ago, 33k on Wii U originally, shouldn't be forgotten that it will have a massive digital share, so predicting 50k is akin to predicting ~100k which is 3 times what Bayonetta 2 did

Nier is a late cheap port, should have legs, P5R is a late expensive port, it's no P3P or P4G with zero added content so there's near 0 incentive for double dippers there.
 
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This is my first prediction, but after learning what I have about the used market and seeing so many late ports I was sure would knock it out of the park rarely make it over 20k FW…

[NSW] Nier Automata (4 days) - 47,308
[NSW] Persona 5 Royal (3 days) - 46,103
[PS4+PS5] Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (3 days) - 66,321
[NSW] Bayonetta 3 (3 days) - 40,348
[PS4+PS5] Star Ocean 6 (4 days) - 56,002
 
Last edited:
[NSW] Nier Automata (4 days) - 64000
[NSW] Persona 5 Royal (3 days) - 90000
[PS4+PS5] Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (3 days) - 55000
[NSW] Bayonetta 3 (3 days) - 70000
[PS4+PS5] Star Ocean 6 (4 days) - 30000
 
[NSW] Nier Automata (4 days) - 65.056
[NSW] Persona 5 Royal (3 days) - 85.058
[PS4+PS5] Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (3 days) - 45.054
[NSW] Bayonetta 3 (3 days) - 78.987
[PS4+PS5] Star Ocean 6 (4 days) - 46.864

Bonus: NSW Hardware (4 weeks) - 399.993
 
[NSW] Nier Automata (4 days) - 53.508
[NSW] Persona 5 Royal (3 days) - 51.685
[PS4+PS5] Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (3 days) - 57.378
[NSW] Bayonetta 3 (3 days) - 35.038
[PS4+PS5] Star Ocean 6 (4 days) - 44.099

Bonus: [PS5] P5 Royal - 5.460 (so 57.145 overall)
 
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[NSW] Nier Automata (4 days) - 58.500
[NSW] Persona 5 Royal (3 days) - 63.755
[PS4+PS5] Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (3 days) - 77.000
[NSW] Bayonetta 3 (3 days) - 66.900
[PS4+PS5] Star Ocean 6 (4 days) - 74.000
 
[NSW] Nier Automata (4 days) - 40.000
[NSW] Persona 5 Royal (3 days) - 65.000
[PS4+PS5] Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (3 days) - 68.000
[NSW] Bayonetta 3 (3 days) - 40.000
[PS4+PS5] Star Ocean 6 (4 days) - 55.000
 
[NSW] Nier Automata (4 days) - 43.000
[NSW] Persona 5 Royal (3 days) - 71.000
[PS4+PS5] Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (3 days) - 51.000
[NSW] Bayonetta 3 (3 days) - 69.000
[PS4+PS5] Star Ocean 6 (4 days) - 61.000
 
[NSW] Nier Automata (4 days) - 50,000
[NSW] Persona 5 Royal (3 days) - 100,000
[PS4+PS5] Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (3 days) - 80,000
[NSW] Bayonetta 3 (3 days) - 60,000
[PS4+PS5] Star Ocean 6 (4 days) - 80,000
 
[NSW] Nier Automata (4 days) - 58,000
[NSW] Persona 5 Royal (3 days) - 78,000
[PS4+PS5] Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (3 days) - 66,000
[NSW] Bayonetta 3 (3 days) - 62,000
[PS4+PS5] Star Ocean 6 (4 days) - 51,000
 
[NSW] Nier Automata (4 days) - 54,321
[NSW] Persona 5 Royal (3 days) - 54,545
[PS4+PS5] Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (3 days) - 55,555
[NSW] Bayonetta 3 (3 days) - 45,454
[PS4+PS5] Star Ocean 6 (4 days) - 46,789

Nearly wanted to skip this month, just dumping the numbers out. Calculating / overanalyzing such low numbers will only produce greater error margins.
 
[NSW] Nier Automata (4 days) - 45.500
[NSW] Persona 5 Royal (3 days) - 62.700
[PS4+PS5] Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (3 days) - 60.200
[NSW] Bayonetta 3 (3 days) - 52.400
[PS4+PS5] Star Ocean 6 (4 days) - 61.800
 
[NSW] Nier Automata (4 days) - 69.000
[NSW] Persona 5 Royal (3 days) - 75.000
[PS4+PS5] Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (3 days) - 63.000
[NSW] Bayonetta 3 (3 days) - 71.000
[PS4+PS5] Star Ocean 6 (4 days) - 48.000
 
[NSW] Nier Automata (4 days) - 55.000
[NSW] Persona 5 Royal (3 days) - 70.000
[PS4+PS5] Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (3 days) - 55.000
[NSW] Bayonetta 3 (3 days) - 70.000
[PS4+PS5] Star Ocean 6 (4 days) - 55.000
 
[NSW] Nier Automata (4 days) - 54,200
[NSW] Persona 5 Royal (3 days) - 83,100
[PS4+PS5] Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (3 days) - 57,000
[NSW] Bayonetta 3 (3 days) - 64,900
[PS4+PS5] Star Ocean 6 (4 days) - 77,500
 
[NSW] Nier Automata (4 days) - 45.000
[NSW] Persona 5 Royal (3 days) - 55.000
[PS4+PS5] Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (3 days) - 50.000
[NSW] Bayonetta 3 (3 days) - 45.000
[PS4+PS5] Star Ocean 6 (4 days) - 75.000
 
NSW] Nier Automata (4 days) - 49.999
[NSW] Persona 5 Royal (3 days) - 49.999
[PS4+PS5] Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (3 days) - 49.999
[NSW] Bayonetta 3 (3 days) - 49.999
[PS4+PS5] Star Ocean 6 (4 days) - 49.999
 
NSW] Nier Automata (4 days) - 46.464
[NSW] Persona 5 Royal (3 days) - 54.545
[PS4+PS5] Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (3 days) - 61.616
[NSW] Bayonetta 3 (3 days) - 53.535
[PS4+PS5] Star Ocean 6 (4 days) - 49.494
 
[NSW] Nier Automata (4 days) - 30,000
[NSW] Persona 5 Royal (3 days) - 30,000
[PS4+PS5] Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (3 days) - 47,000
[NSW] Bayonetta 3 (3 days) - 48,000
[PS4+PS5] Star Ocean 6 (4 days) - 50,000
 
[NSW] Nier Automata (4 days) - 39.999
[NSW] Persona 5 Royal (3 days) - 41.111
[PS4+PS5] Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 (3 days) - 48.888
[NSW] Bayonetta 3 (3 days) - 72.222
[PS4+PS5] Star Ocean 6 (4 days) - 47.777
 
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