Media Create Prediction League : November 2022 [Full results !]

[Iraiza]

[NSW] Harvestella (3 days) - 35 000
[PS4+PS5+NSW] Sonic Frontiers (6 days) - 16 000
[NSW+PS4+PS5] Tactics Ogre: Reborn (3 days) - 64 000
[NSW] Pokémon Scarlet & Violet (3 days) - 2 100 000
[NSW] Pokémon Scarlet & Violet retail + digital sales (3 days) - 3 500 000
[NSW] Switch Hardware (28 days) - 460 000

 

[Welfare]

[NSW] Harvestella (3 days) - 25,000
[PS4+PS5+NSW] Sonic Frontiers (6 days) - 20,000
[NSW+PS4+PS5] Tactics Ogre: Reborn (3 days) - 30,000
[NSW] Pokémon Scarlet & Violet (3 days) - 1,900,000
[NSW] Pokémon Scarlet & Violet retail + digital sales (3 days) - 3,000,000
[NSW] Switch Hardware (28 days) - 500,000

 

[Terrell]

[NSW] Harvestella (3 days) - 31.000
[PS4+PS5+NSW] Sonic Frontiers (6 days) - 21.000
[NSW+PS4+PS5] Tactics Ogre: Reborn (3 days) - 53.000
[NSW] Pokémon Scarlet & Violet (3 days) - 1.850.000
[NSW] Pokémon Scarlet & Violet retail + digital sales (3 days) - 3.850.000
[NSW] Switch Hardware (28 days) - 398.000

 

[TheSilentWombat]

[NSW] Harvestella (3 days) - 29,000
[PS4+PS5+NSW] Sonic Frontiers (6 days) - 27,000
[NSW+PS4+PS5] Tactics Ogre: Reborn (3 days) - 42,000
[NSW] Pokémon Scarlet & Violet (3 days) - 2,100,000
[NSW] Pokémon Scarlet & Violet retail + digital sales (3 days) - 3,800,000
[NSW] Switch Hardware (28 days) - 520,000

 

[RavensShade]

[NSW] Harvestella (3 days) - 37.500
[PS4+PS5+NSW] Sonic Frontiers (6 days) - 31.000
[NSW+PS4+PS5] Tactics Ogre: Reborn (3 days) - 36.000
[NSW] Pokémon Scarlet & Violet (3 days) - 2.200.000
[NSW] Pokémon Scarlet & Violet retail + digital sales (3 days) - 3.600.000
[NSW] Switch Hardware (28 days) - 400.000

 

[MadnB]

[NSW] Harvestella (3 days) - 33,000
[PS4+PS5+NSW] Sonic Frontiers (6 days) - 37,000
[NSW+PS4+PS5] Tactics Ogre: Reborn (3 days) - 47,000
[NSW] Pokémon Scarlet & Violet (3 days) - 2,147,000
[NSW] Pokémon Scarlet & Violet retail + digital sales (3 days) - 3,534,000
[NSW] Switch Hardware (28 days) - 444,000

 

[Hiska-kun]

[NSW] Harvestella (3 days) - 34.444
[PS4+PS5+NSW] Sonic Frontiers (6 days) - 31.111
[NSW+PS4+PS5] Tactics Ogre: Reborn (3 days) - 46.666
[NSW] Pokémon Scarlet & Violet (3 days) - 2.222.222
[NSW] Pokémon Scarlet & Violet retail + digital sales (3 days) - 3.600.000
[NSW] Switch Hardware (28 days) - 377.777

 

[ktpoison]

[NSW] Harvestella (3 days) - 37.900
[PS4+PS5+NSW] Sonic Frontiers (6 days) - 21.250
[NSW+PS4+PS5] Tactics Ogre: Reborn (3 days) - 36.500
[NSW] Pokémon Scarlet & Violet (3 days) - 2.000.000
[NSW] Pokémon Scarlet & Violet retail + digital sales (3 days) - 3.600.000
[NSW] Switch Hardware (28 days) - 520.000

 

[Deluxury]

[NSW] Harvestella (3 days) - 32,109
[PS4+PS5+NSW] Sonic Frontiers (6 days) - 43,210
[NSW+PS4+PS5] Tactics Ogre: Reborn (3 days) - 75,319
[NSW] Pokémon Scarlet & Violet (3 days) - 2,678,910
[NSW] Pokémon Scarlet & Violet retail + digital sales (3 days) - 4,100,000
[NSW] Switch Hardware (28 days) - 494,896

 

[mjw]

[NSW] Harvestella (3 days) - 24k
[PS4+PS5+NSW] Sonic Frontiers (6 days) - 29k
[NSW+PS4+PS5] Tactics Ogre: Reborn (3 days) - 80k
[NSW] Pokémon Scarlet & Violet (3 days) - 2333k
[NSW] Pokémon Scarlet & Violet retail + digital sales (3 days) - 3300k
[NSW] Switch Hardware (28 days) - 498k

 

[Joxer]

[NSW] Harvestella (3 days) - 25.500
[PS4+PS5+NSW] Sonic Frontiers (6 days) - 20.700
[NSW+PS4+PS5] Tactics Ogre: Reborn (3 days) - 46.300
[NSW] Pokémon Scarlet & Violet (3 days) - 2.350.400
[NSW] Pokémon Scarlet & Violet retail + digital sales (3 days) - 3.720.600
[NSW] Switch Hardware (28 days) - 490.800

 

[Astral_lion02]

[NSW] Harvestella (3 days) - 23.000
[PS4+PS5+NSW] Sonic Frontiers (6 days) - 29.000
[NSW+PS4+PS5] Tactics Ogre: Reborn (3 days) - 40.000
[NSW] Pokémon Scarlet & Violet (3 days) - 2,339.000
[NSW] Pokémon Scarlet & Violet retail + digital sales (3 days) - 3.765.000
[NSW] Switch Hardware (28 days) - 535.000

 

[fiendcode]

[NSW] Harvestella (3 days) - 23,456
[PS4+PS5+NSW] Sonic Frontiers (6 days) - 32,101
[NSW+PS4+PS5] Tactics Ogre: Reborn (3 days) - 45,678
[NSW] Pokémon Scarlet & Violet (3 days) - 2,101,234
[NSW] Pokémon Scarlet & Violet retail + digital sales (3 days) - 3,210,123
[NSW] Switch Hardware (28 days) - 543,210

 

[Lazyrider34]

[NSW] Harvestella (3 days) - 15,123
[PS4+PS5+NSW] Sonic Frontiers (6 days) - 38,765
[NSW+PS4+PS5] Tactics Ogre: Reborn (3 days) - 33,333
[NSW] Pokémon Scarlet & Violet (3 days) - 2,300,001
[NSW] Pokémon Scarlet & Violet retail + digital sales (3 days) - 3,700,000
[NSW] Switch Hardware (28 days) - 575,000

 

[MarcoP90]

[NSW] Harvestella (3 days) - 36.704
[PS4+PS5+NSW] Sonic Frontiers (6 days) - 27.860
[NSW+PS4+PS5] Tactics Ogre: Reborn (3 days) - 78.254
[NSW] Pokémon Scarlet & Violet (3 days) - 2.109.589
[NSW] Pokémon Scarlet & Violet retail + digital sales (3 days) - 3.610.333
[NSW] Switch Hardware (28 days) - 550.000

 

[Lelouch0612]

Predictions closed !

 

[BTB123]

I hope I'll do better this time around.

 

[Arynio]

Damn, life got in the way and I couldn't make it today.

Well, just for fun then:

[NSW] Pokémon Scarlet & Violet (3 days) - 2.150.000
[NSW] Pokémon Scarlet & Violet retail + digital sales (3 days) - 3.650.000

 

[PillFencer]

Kinda hoping Pokémon doesn't get a PR now, I don't want it to replace my Harvestella prediction (jk)

 

[DarkDetective]

Here are the median predictions for November (min <> max):

[NSW] Harvestella (3 days) - 32.555 (15.123 <> 55.000)
[PS4+PS5+NSW] Sonic Frontiers (6 days) - 30.000 (15.000 <> 96.000)
[NSW+PS4+PS5] Tactics Ogre: Reborn (3 days) - 43.920 (28.000 <> 82.171)
[NSW] Pokémon Scarlet & Violet (3 days) - 2.216.373 (1.850.000 <> 3.000.000)
[NSW] Pokémon Scarlet & Violet retail + digital sales (3 days) - 3.635.167 (3.000.000 <> 4.550.000)
[NSW] Nintendo Switch Hardware (28 days) - 466.000 (250.000 <> 616.616)

The most bull-ish predictor of the month is @Tbone5189, expecting no less than 8.138.936 units sold across all predictions.
The most bear-ish predictor of the month is @Welfare, expecting only 5.475.000 units sold across all predictions.

@Rellik's predictions are closest to the median (in terms of %).
@Tbone5189's predictions are farthest away from the median.

 

[Lelouch0612]

[NSW] Pokémon Scarlet & Violet retail + digital sales (3 days) - 4 060 000

 

[BTB123]

Of by 10k copies. Very good prediction.

 

[Tokuiten]

[NSW] Pokémon Scarlet & Violet retail + digital sales (3 days) - 4.050.000

(Not that this is anything but luck on my side LOL)

 

[PillFencer]

welp goodbye my sweet Harvestella prediction

and hello another huge underestimate for a mega-seller after Splatoon 3, wanting to be "safe" backfires :/

 

[Fatih_656]

Okey,unnecessary question from me, I just woke up

 

[BoktaiFan]

[NSW] Pokémon Scarlet & Violet (3 days) - 2.500.000

Dang I was pretty spot on if it was just physical sales

 

[Tbone5189]

I'm always off, hardware is at 360k but I'll be way off with that too lol

 

[Aleh]

These were my predictions for the last 3 Pokémon games

[NSW] Pokemon Brilliant Diamond/Shining Pearl (3 days) - 1.450.000
Official number 1.395.642

[NSW] Pokémon Legends Arceus (3 days) - 1.370.000
Official number 1.424.657

[NSW] Pokémon Scarlet & Violet (3 days) - 2.500.000
Official number 2.537.292

More or less a ~50k units difference in all 3

 

[BTB123]

These were my predictions for the last 3 Pokémon games

[NSW] Pokemon Brilliant Diamond/Shining Pearl (3 days) - 1.450.000
Official number 1.395.642

[NSW] Pokémon Legends Arceus (3 days) - 1.370.000
Official number 1.424.657

[NSW] Pokémon Scarlet & Violet (3 days) - 2.500.000
Official number 2.537.292

More or less a ~50k units difference in all 3

That's a pattern right there. You're a prophet. Next time I will base my prediction off of yours.

 

[Lelouch0612]

While I compile the results of November, you can already predict for December !

Media Create Prediction League : December 2022

Hello everyone ! While we are still waiting on the final results of November, it is time to open the December edition of the Prediction League ! We are aiming to host this prediction contest every month, when the release schedule allows it. The rules are simple, you can make and edit your...

www.installbaseforum.com

 

[Lelouch0612]

Sonic Frontiers

The Install Base consensus was too low for Sonic, around 16.000 units too low, after years of struggle for the hedgehog in its home country. The game's ambition couples with a bigger marketing push than usual resulted in a decently strong opening week.

Congrats to @Spikeylord with their excellent 47.074 prediction, followed by @Aleh and @Damage2 at #2 and #3. They all were below 5% of error margin !

Tactis Ogre: Reborn

Once again, the new release of this classic game has been underestimated by many members. The IB consensus fell 14.000 units too low.

And once again, big congrats to @Spikeylord with their exceptional 57.075 prediction, less than 200 units off the mark. They were followed by @AruanaRiva at #2 and @Terrell at #3. That's another solid showing from them.

 

[BTB123]

Lol, everything being underestimated after everything was overestimated the previous month.

 

[AruanaRiva]

Wuhuuuu. I am back to number 2 lol. After the big flop for last 2 months. Now thats a good comeback for me.

 

[Lelouch0612]

Pokémon S/V retail + digital

Despite expecting a massive growth (the lowest prediction is still a 50% growth over previous Pokémon games), the Install Base consensus was around 440.000 units too low. The newest mainline entry outsold previous games like S/M in just 3 days. That's a second massive overperformance after Splatoon 3, two months before, and a new record launch in Japan.

Congrats to @Tokuiten who was exactly on the mark, they were very closely followed by @Lelouch0612 and @Abzeronow at #2 and #3. They all were below 1.5% of error margin, in fact another 8 members were below 1.5% !

Pokémon S/V retail

Similarly, the new retail number is way ahead of the consensus. It seems like the digital share was in line with expectations for the game.

This time however, we have a tie for the top spot. Congrats to @Ystad, @Aleh, @BoktaiFan for their excellent 2.500.000 prediction, only 1.5% off the mark !

 

[Lelouch0612]

Switch Hardware

On the hardware side, it is another overperformance. The platform managed around 45.000 units more than expected. Still, we were on average pretty close in terms of weekly average (129k vs 118k).

We have a tie for the top spot. Congrats to @TheSilentWombat and @ktpoison for the shared #1 spot with their excellent 520.000 prediction. That's merely 1% off the mark. They were followed at #3 by many members tied, @Levitate, @Lelouch0612, @Yeshua, @Fatih_656, @Ystad and @Welfare which all were below 3% of error margin !

 

[BTB123]

I was exactly on the median with my hardware prediction.

 

[Lelouch0612]

Don't forget to predict for December:

Media Create Prediction League : December 2022 [LESS THAN 24H REMAINING]

Hello everyone ! While we are still waiting on the final results of November, it is time to open the December edition of the Prediction League ! We are aiming to host this prediction contest every month, when the release schedule allows it. The rules are simple, you can make and edit your...

www.installbaseforum.com

 

[Lelouch0612]

Congrats to @Spikeylord for being the top predictor of the month and to @Levitate and @Deluxury who round up the podium very nicely. They were all below 10% error margin on average.

It was a month with many overperforms, with notably the biggest launch of all-time in Japan. We also banked on a PR from Nintendo for the retail + digital total and we were right to

Overall it has been a very solid month with the IB consensus only being 18% off the mark on average.

Hopefully, we'll do even better in December

You can still predict here:

Media Create Prediction League : December 2022 [LESS THAN 3H REMAINING]

Hello everyone ! While we are still waiting on the final results of November, it is time to open the December edition of the Prediction League ! We are aiming to host this prediction contest every month, when the release schedule allows it. The rules are simple, you can make and edit your...

www.installbaseforum.com

 

[brutaka3]

And here I was thinking that last month was my worse one...

 

[BTB123]

Worst month ever for me. Now it can only go up. Right?

 

[Lelouch0612]

Worst month ever for me. Now it can only go up. Right?

Technically there are still some room to do worse

 

[Deluxury]

Excluding the two aggregate results, this is the first time I made it to the podium!

 

[ikaben]

I had no idea I skipped Tactis Ogre... a month to forget.

 

[Eren Jaeger]

Top 10! A good month again, despite over a million error in units. It was Switch hardware that was worst for me in terms of percentages.

 

[Spikeylord]

Well then, I was very much not expecting to come back from a holiday to find I came first in overall predictions, and two specific predictions too!

Especially given how low I've been in previous Prediction Leagues (more often than that below the average) - too bad I missed the cutoff for December, maybe I could've tried for the repeat?