:/ I guess I'm overestimating digital
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Media Create Prediction League : May 2023 [FINAL RESULTS!]
- Thread starter Lelouch0612
- Replies 101
- Views 5,985
- Start date
- Predictions
:/ I guess I'm overestimating digital
[PS4] Hogwarts Legacy (4 weeks) - 50.000
[NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom (3 days) - 1.120.000
[NSW] NSW hardware during Zelda Week (7 days) - 113.000
[NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom (3 weeks) - 1.750.000
[PS5] PS5 Hardware (28 days) - 121.000
[NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom (3 days) - 1.120.000
[NSW] NSW hardware during Zelda Week (7 days) - 113.000
[NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom (3 weeks) - 1.750.000
[PS5] PS5 Hardware (28 days) - 121.000
OP
OP
- Thread starter
- #53
I am not sure, even if the Collector's Edition is one factor to take into account.
You know something is up when you have the 2nd lowest prediction lol. I think the hype getting to everyone. From a month ago I thought the general prediction would be 800k-1200k as the floor and ceiling. Tbf anything over 1200k seems like it's crazy talk but dunno we have to go out with a bang I guess lol
"ZELDA! HYPE!!!11"
(On a more serious note: 1 million retail FW seems to be the general expectation/hope and then there's the more recent impression of TotK doing REALLY well, thus people adding a bit to the 1 mio.. From there, it's all about how tbone you wanna go, that's where the 1.5+ predictions come from
)
[PS4] Hogwarts Legacy (4 weeks) - 50.000
[NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom (3 days) - 1.150.000
[NSW] NSW hardware during Zelda Week (7 days) - 145.000
[NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom (3 weeks) - 1.770.000
[PS5] PS5 Hardware (28 days) - 160.000
[NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom (3 days) - 1.150.000
[NSW] NSW hardware during Zelda Week (7 days) - 145.000
[NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom (3 weeks) - 1.770.000
[PS5] PS5 Hardware (28 days) - 160.000
- Pronouns
- he/him
[PS4] Hogwarts Legacy (4 weeks) - 64,000
[NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom (3 days) - 1,200,000
[NSW] NSW hardware during Zelda Week (7 days) - 150,000
[NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom (3 weeks) - 1,750,000
[PS5] PS5 Hardware (28 days) - 150,000
[NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom (3 days) - 1,200,000
[NSW] NSW hardware during Zelda Week (7 days) - 150,000
[NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom (3 weeks) - 1,750,000
[PS5] PS5 Hardware (28 days) - 150,000
Nobody arguing that, PokeSV and Splat3 are gonna sell over 8mil in japan.
TotK has a shot at 5mil+ which puts it at a top 20 game and I think 2nd highest single player game ever. BotW is over 3.5mil and selling so that should reach 4mil lifetime.
After the biggest franchises in japan (Splatoon/Pokémon/Animal Crossing/Mario Kart/Smash) Zelda 3D could be in the Monster Hunter Tier which means top 10 franchises in japan
[PS4] Hogwarts Legacy (4 weeks) - 66,666
[NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom (3 days) - 1,400,000
[NSW] NSW hardware during Zelda Week (7 days) - 90,000
[NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom (3 weeks) - 2,100,000
[PS5] PS5 Hardware (28 days) - 180,000
[NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom (3 days) - 1,400,000
[NSW] NSW hardware during Zelda Week (7 days) - 90,000
[NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom (3 weeks) - 2,100,000
[PS5] PS5 Hardware (28 days) - 180,000
[PS4] Hogwarts Legacy (4 weeks) - 56,000
[NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom (3 days) - 1,090,000
[NSW] NSW hardware during Zelda Week (7 days) - 101,000
[NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom (3 weeks) - 1,550,000
[PS5] PS5 Hardware (28 days) - 140,000
[NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom (3 days) - 1,090,000
[NSW] NSW hardware during Zelda Week (7 days) - 101,000
[NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom (3 weeks) - 1,550,000
[PS5] PS5 Hardware (28 days) - 140,000
- Pronouns
- He/Him
[PS4] Hogwarts Legacy (4 weeks) - 49.000
[NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom (3 days) - 1.370.000
[NSW] NSW hardware during Zelda Week (7 days) - 101.000
[NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom (3 weeks) - 2.000.000
[PS5] PS5 Hardware (28 days) - 145.000
[NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom (3 days) - 1.370.000
[NSW] NSW hardware during Zelda Week (7 days) - 101.000
[NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom (3 weeks) - 2.000.000
[PS5] PS5 Hardware (28 days) - 145.000
[PS4] Hogwart's Legacy (4 weeks) : 25 000
[NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom (3 days) : 1 085 000
[NSW] NSW hardware during Zelda Week (7 days) : 129 000
[NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom (3 weeks) : 1 590 000
[PS5] PS5 Hardware (28 days) : 149 000
[NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom (3 days) : 1 085 000
[NSW] NSW hardware during Zelda Week (7 days) : 129 000
[NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom (3 weeks) : 1 590 000
[PS5] PS5 Hardware (28 days) : 149 000
- Pronouns
- He/Him
[PS4] Hogwarts Legacy (4 weeks) - 50,500
[NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom (3 days) - 1,350,000
[NSW] NSW hardware during Zelda Week (7 days) - 105,000
[NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom (3 weeks) - 2,050,500
[PS5] PS5 Hardware (28 days) - 165,000
[NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom (3 days) - 1,350,000
[NSW] NSW hardware during Zelda Week (7 days) - 105,000
[NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom (3 weeks) - 2,050,500
[PS5] PS5 Hardware (28 days) - 165,000
- Pronouns
- He/Him
The super majority of predictions are putting ToTK launch >= 1 million. I'll either laugh or my prediction (960K) will fail miserably hahaha.
OP
OP
- Thread starter
- #75
Predictions are now closed !
The number we're predicting here is the retail number so you have to exclude the digital. Chances are you might be close, depending on how high the digital share is.
Good point. Forgot about that
Officer Barbrady voice: "move along people nothing to see here"
Just checking everyone's predictions on the TotK 3 weeks... Are we gonna use only Famitsu numbers for the 3 weeks or the milestone announcement (2.24m) + 2 Famitsu weeks? If it's the later... Only 8 are just barely over with today's number (and we have 2 weeks left for an even huge number)... XD
We're always using Famitsu. This is about physical sales. The opening week sales are digital + Media Create weekly data that we don't have access to. Why would we use that number?
OP
OP
- Thread starter
- #85
The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom
The historically big May release managed to sell over 1.1m units in its first week physically, and over 2.2m in total in Japan. The IB consensus was pretty good on this one, settling at merely 7.2% off the mark. Good job everyone !
There is a bunch of excellent predictions. Both @Aleh and @Arynio are tied with an exceptional 1.120.000 forecast, literally 0,0% of error margin !! Congrats to @Fisico for rounding up the podium. The congratulations extend to @Kenka & @Hiska-kun who also were below 1% of error margin !
The historically big May release managed to sell over 1.1m units in its first week physically, and over 2.2m in total in Japan. The IB consensus was pretty good on this one, settling at merely 7.2% off the mark. Good job everyone !
There is a bunch of excellent predictions. Both @Aleh and @Arynio are tied with an exceptional 1.120.000 forecast, literally 0,0% of error margin !! Congrats to @Fisico for rounding up the podium. The congratulations extend to @Kenka & @Hiska-kun who also were below 1% of error margin !
Not to stir things up, @Lelouch0612 , but did you miss my prediction?The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom
The historically big May release managed to sell over 1.1m units in its first week physically, and over 2.2m in total in Japan. The IB consensus was pretty good on this one, settling at merely 7.2% off the mark. Good job everyone !
There is a bunch of excellent predictions. Both @Aleh and @Arynio are tied with an exceptional 1.120.000 forecast, literally 0,0% of error margin !! Congrats to @Fisico for rounding up the podium. The congratulations extend to @Kenka & @Hiska-kun who also were below 1% of error margin !
Media Create Prediction League : May 2023 [FINAL RESULTS!]
Hello everyone ! While we are still waiting on the final results of April, it is time to open the May edition of the Prediction League ! We are aiming to host this prediction contest every month, when the release schedule allows it. The rules are simple, you can make and edit your prediction...
www.installbaseforum.com
1.1 mio for Zelda, on the mark :i
Edit: Ah, now I see. You first mention 1.1mio as the real result, but in the graph, 1.19 is the real one. Got it, mea culpa.
OP
OP
- Thread starter
- #89
No worries, I said it sold over 1.1mNot to stir things up, @Lelouch0612 , but did you miss my prediction?
Media Create Prediction League : May 2023 [FINAL RESULTS!]
Hello everyone ! While we are still waiting on the final results of April, it is time to open the May edition of the Prediction League ! We are aiming to host this prediction contest every month, when the release schedule allows it. The rules are simple, you can make and edit your prediction...
1.1 mio for Zelda, on the mark :i
Edit: Ah, now I see. You first mention 1.1mio as the real result, but in the graph, 1.19 is the real one. Got it, mea culpa.
Unfortunately we shouldn't expect the 3 weeks prediction for Zelda to be as good, median is arond 1.859M and the end result should be closer to 1.5M.
On my end I totally missed that the prediction was 3 weeks and not 4 so that's why I overestimated by 200k (but even with an extra week it probably wouldn't reach 1.7M anyway)
On my end I totally missed that the prediction was 3 weeks and not 4 so that's why I overestimated by 200k (but even with an extra week it probably wouldn't reach 1.7M anyway
)
Switch and Zelda results !
OP
OP
- Thread starter
- #91
NSW hardware during Zelda launch
The impact of TotK on hardware sales was more spread out than expected, with a peak above 120k during GW and a weaker performance at launch that threw people off guard. As a result, the IB consensus settled at around 40.6% off the mark.
There is a bunch of good predictions. @Iraiza impresses with an exceptional 85.000 forecast, only 0,4% of error margin ! Congrats to @tolkir, @La Leganto and @mokuroh for their tie at #2.
The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom (3 weeks)
Over the 3 weeks period, Tears of the Kingdom managed to cross 1.5m at retail in Japan. The IB consensus was 18.8% higher.
There is a bunch of great predictions. In fact, we have a spectacular tie at #1 between @Iraiza (again !), @Ghostsonplanets and @Eren Jaeger. Congrats to you !
The impact of TotK on hardware sales was more spread out than expected, with a peak above 120k during GW and a weaker performance at launch that threw people off guard. As a result, the IB consensus settled at around 40.6% off the mark.
There is a bunch of good predictions. @Iraiza impresses with an exceptional 85.000 forecast, only 0,4% of error margin ! Congrats to @tolkir, @La Leganto and @mokuroh for their tie at #2.
The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom (3 weeks)
Over the 3 weeks period, Tears of the Kingdom managed to cross 1.5m at retail in Japan. The IB consensus was 18.8% higher.
There is a bunch of great predictions. In fact, we have a spectacular tie at #1 between @Iraiza (again !), @Ghostsonplanets and @Eren Jaeger. Congrats to you !
Holy shit, I'm finally #1 on something! Also congrats to Iraiza and Ghostsonplanets.
- Pronouns
- He/Him
Hahaha, same here. Can't believe I actually got close to the real result. Congrats to you and Iraiza!!!
HL and PS5 results
OP
OP
- Thread starter
- #95
Hogwarts Legacy
The late port PS4 of HL did a little over 43.000 units in May, not very far from the IB consensus which was 50.000 units.
In terms of quality predictions, @Crjunior35 took the crown with an exceptional 42.500 prediction. @Hiska-kun and @ikaben completes the podium at #2 and #3.
PS5 Hardware
Playstation 5 continued to perform strongly in May, surpassing most expectations. The real sales are around 7.500/week over the IB consensus.
Congrats to @Ventinor for taking the crown, only 5.000 units off the target. @Joxer is #2 and @Astral_lion02 at #3. They were all below 5% of error margin.
The late port PS4 of HL did a little over 43.000 units in May, not very far from the IB consensus which was 50.000 units.
In terms of quality predictions, @Crjunior35 took the crown with an exceptional 42.500 prediction. @Hiska-kun and @ikaben completes the podium at #2 and #3.
PS5 Hardware
Playstation 5 continued to perform strongly in May, surpassing most expectations. The real sales are around 7.500/week over the IB consensus.
Congrats to @Ventinor for taking the crown, only 5.000 units off the target. @Joxer is #2 and @Astral_lion02 at #3. They were all below 5% of error margin.
Final results
OP
OP
- Thread starter
- #96
Final results
Congrats to @Eren Jaeger for being the top predictor of the month and to @Iraiza and @pierre485 who round up the podium very nicely. It was overall an okay month with 14 predictors, below 20% error margin on average.
Overall the IB consensus was #15 for the month, 20% off the mark on average. Hopefully we'll improve in June
Congrats to @Eren Jaeger for being the top predictor of the month and to @Iraiza and @pierre485 who round up the podium very nicely. It was overall an okay month with 14 predictors, below 20% error margin on average.
Overall the IB consensus was #15 for the month, 20% off the mark on average. Hopefully we'll improve in June
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Final results
Congrats to @Fisico for being the top predictor of the month (2nd time of the year!) and to @Eren Jaeger and @Iraiza who round up the podium very nicely. It was overall an okay month with 16 predictors, below 20% error margin on average.
Overall the IB consensus was #28 for the month, 27% off the mark on average. Hopefully we'll improve in June
As much as I'd like it to be true, isn't there a mistake with my numbers?
The units error is definitely off in any case as I was 186k off with Zelda 5w prediction alone
OP
OP
- Thread starter
- #99
Thanks, you are right. This is now corrected