Media Create Prediction League : March 2022 [FINAL RESULTS !]

[Lelouch0612]

Sorry for the delay, but while we are waiting on the results of the very final week of March, here are the results for the releases earlier in the month

[NSW] Triangle Strategy (3 days)

This new IP from Team Asano was slightly overpredicted by our members, around 7000 units too high. Contrary to Octopath and Bravely Default, Square released this time a SRPG, a nicher genre than traditional JRPGs that could explain a part of the overprediction. Still, pretty much spot on overall.

Big congrats to @YuriCastro who topped both the units and % error margin rankings with his excellent 85 670 prediction, only 628 units away from the target which is a 0,7% margin of error. They were very closely followed by @ESCK Swiss who was only 702 units away. Top 3 also had two members with the same 85 000 prediction : @Kano and @thaluanttt.

Congrats to all of you !

[PS4+PS5] Gran Turismo 7 (3 days)

The big return of a numbered Gran Turismo game raised several questions after GTS lacking performance in Japan. However, it is pretty clear that the game largely overperformed IB's expectations. The PS5 ecosystem getting more healthy and a big spike in the allocation of the Anniversary edition (which has a PS4 and PS5 copy of the game) are potential reasons behind this big gap.

Big congrats to @Joseki who topped both the units and % error margin rankings with his excellent 139 357 prediction, only 1393 units away from the target which is a 1,0% margin of error. They were followed by @Kirby who had an 8,7% error margin. They were the only two members below a 10% error margin !

Thanks again for the big turnout this month with around 60 members ! You can already make your predictions for April too

Media Create Prediction League : April 2022

Hello everyone ! While we are still waiting on the final results of March, it is already time to open the April edition of the Prediction League ! We are aiming to host this prediction contest every month. The rules are simple, you can make and edit your prediction on the following titles...

www.installbaseforum.com

 

[Lelouch0612]

And now we have the other results of the month with Final Fantasy, Kirby and Switch Hardware !

[PS4+PS5] Final Fantasy Origins (3 days)

This new FF spin-off by Koei-Tecmo was overpredicted by our members, around 33% too high. It has a been a while since the last FF spin-off and the cross-over with a Souls like gameplay was very promising given KT's own success with Nioh. However, the game failed to deliver on some key aspects that detracted its target audience from buying it.

Incredible but this time we have 4 members with the best prediction. Congrats to @Pooroomoo, @AruanaRiva ,@DarkDetective and @thaluanttt who topped both the units and % error margin rankings with their excellent 45000 prediction, less than 2000 units away from the target which is a 3,9% margin of error.

Congrats to all of you !

[NSW] Kirby and the Forgotten Land (3 days)

With its shift to 3D and a its increase in ambition and budget, a lot of excitement and questions were raised about the game's performance in Japan. Historically the franchise is very big in Japan so the question was whether the franchise's ceiling will be raised.

Very impressively, we got two extremely close predictions. Both @Stygr and @SBoy11 topped both the units and % error margin rankings with an exceptional 380 000 prediction, only 60 units away from the target which is a 0,0% margin of error. They were followed by @Banjokazooie1992 with another impressive prediction, with only 1,0% error margin. Three members below 1% of error margin is a very impressive feat !


[NSW] Switch hardware (5 weeks)

Finally, we can all say that we have been very close to guess the 5-weeks total of the Switch hardware during March. With 432k units sold, the Switch averaged 86k/week, more than the 84k/week of the consensus.

Congrats to @Chris1964 who topped both the units and % error margin rankings with his very spot on 432 109 prediction, less than 500 units away with a 0,1% margin of error. They were followed by @MysticGon at #2 and @BoktaiFan & @Astrogamer both at #3. They all were below a 1% of error margin.

Congrats to all of you !

While we are waiting on the aggregate ranking, you can already make your predictions for April too

Media Create Prediction League : April 2022​

 

[Lelouch0612]

Now that the first quarter is over, I take it is a good time to show a first look at the current aggregate ranking.

In order to establish that one, I only took the members that participated during the 3 months and ranked them on their average monthly error margin. At the end of the semester, I'll give another look to this ranking that will remove the worst and missed month(s) for each predictor.

For now, let's focus on this first aggregate ranking, with the 29 members that predicted every month !

Congrats to @ESCK Swiss for having the lead so far, and to @Deluxury & @PillFencer, they make a great podium.

As more people enter the chart and with the option to remove the worst months, the overall picture might look vastly different in the coming months but that gives an idea in the meantime