Media Create Prediction League : March 2022 [FINAL RESULTS !]
- Thread starter Lelouch0612
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- Predictions
Weird discrepancy for a man with flawless calculations.
I missed these the last two months! Not this one!!
[NSW] Triangle Strategy (3 days) - 89.000
[PS4+PS5] Gran Turismo 7 (3 days) - 98.000
[PS4+PS5] Final Fantasy Origin (3 days) - 54.000
[NSW] Kirby & The Forgotten Land (3 days) - 395.000
[NSW] Switch hardware (5 weeks) - 450.000
[NSW] Triangle Strategy (3 days) - 89.000
[PS4+PS5] Gran Turismo 7 (3 days) - 98.000
[PS4+PS5] Final Fantasy Origin (3 days) - 54.000
[NSW] Kirby & The Forgotten Land (3 days) - 395.000
[NSW] Switch hardware (5 weeks) - 450.000
[NSW] Triangle Strategy (3 days) - 107.000
[PS4+PS5] Gran Turismo 7 (3 days) - 98.000
[PS4+PS5] Final Fantasy Origin (3 days) - 45.000
[NSW] Kirby & The Forgotten Land (3 days) - 396.000
[NSW] Switch hardware (5 weeks) - 415.000
[PS4+PS5] Gran Turismo 7 (3 days) - 98.000
[PS4+PS5] Final Fantasy Origin (3 days) - 45.000
[NSW] Kirby & The Forgotten Land (3 days) - 396.000
[NSW] Switch hardware (5 weeks) - 415.000
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[NSW] Triangle Strategy (3 days) - 67,000
[PS4+PS5] Gran Turismo 7 (3 days) - 121,000
[PS4+PS5] Final Fantasy Origin (3 days) - 79,000
[NSW] Kirby & The Forgotten Land (3 days) - 333,000
[NSW] Switch hardware (5 weeks) - 388,000
[PS4+PS5] Gran Turismo 7 (3 days) - 121,000
[PS4+PS5] Final Fantasy Origin (3 days) - 79,000
[NSW] Kirby & The Forgotten Land (3 days) - 333,000
[NSW] Switch hardware (5 weeks) - 388,000
[NSW] Triangle Strategy (3 days) - 77.777
[PS4+PS5] Gran Turismo 7 (3 days) - 123.123
[PS4+PS5] Final Fantasy Origin (3 days) - 33.333
[NSW] Kirby & The Forgotten Land (3 days) - 323.323
[NSW] Switch hardware (5 weeks) - 389.389
[PS4+PS5] Gran Turismo 7 (3 days) - 123.123
[PS4+PS5] Final Fantasy Origin (3 days) - 33.333
[NSW] Kirby & The Forgotten Land (3 days) - 323.323
[NSW] Switch hardware (5 weeks) - 389.389
- Pronouns
- He/Him
[NSW] Triangle Strategy (3 days) - 99,000
[PS4+PS5] Gran Turismo 7 (3 days) - 70,000
[PS4+PS5] Final Fantasy Origin (3 days) - 58,000
[NSW] Kirby & The Forgotten Land (3 days) - 377,000
[NSW] Switch hardware (5 weeks) - 420,000
[PS4+PS5] Gran Turismo 7 (3 days) - 70,000
[PS4+PS5] Final Fantasy Origin (3 days) - 58,000
[NSW] Kirby & The Forgotten Land (3 days) - 377,000
[NSW] Switch hardware (5 weeks) - 420,000
[NSW] Triangle Strategy (3 days) - 107 000
[PS4+PS5] Gran Turismo 7 (3 days) - 87 000
[PS4+PS5] Final Fantasy Origin (3 days) - 53 000
[NSW] Kirby & The Forgotten Land (3 days) - 384 000
[NSW] Switch hardware (5 weeks) - 407 000
[PS4+PS5] Gran Turismo 7 (3 days) - 87 000
[PS4+PS5] Final Fantasy Origin (3 days) - 53 000
[NSW] Kirby & The Forgotten Land (3 days) - 384 000
[NSW] Switch hardware (5 weeks) - 407 000
OP
OP
- Thread starter
- #63
Around one hour remaining !!
Last minute prediction, totally thought a lot about it
[NSW] Triangle Strategy (3 days) - 87.654
[PS4+PS5] Gran Turismo 7 (3 days) - 111.111
[PS4+PS5] Final Fantasy Origin (3 days) - 76.543
[NSW] Kirby & The Forgotten Land (3 days) - 333.333
[NSW] Switch hardware (5 weeks) - 444.444
[NSW] Triangle Strategy (3 days) - 87.654
[PS4+PS5] Gran Turismo 7 (3 days) - 111.111
[PS4+PS5] Final Fantasy Origin (3 days) - 76.543
[NSW] Kirby & The Forgotten Land (3 days) - 333.333
[NSW] Switch hardware (5 weeks) - 444.444
- Pronouns
- He/Him/His
I'm kinda surprised to see that I am the lowest predictor for NSW Hardware this month, given my guess is way closer to the Median/Mean than the top prediction is (70k from the median, as opposed to the top predictors 175k from it).
Same. Ah well.
Let's put it this way: we did but Kirby went full mouthful mode and devoured them.
- Pronouns
- he/him
Wasn't that much over on Triangle Strategy. Missed GT7 by quite a bit. Probably should have upped my Kirby prediction but stuck to it since I made the prediction before the huge jump in COMG. Didn't realize I pulled a T-Bone on Switch hardware. It's still a plausible prediction at this point, guess we'll see if Kirby moves a lot of hardware or not.
Triangle Strategy & GT7 results !
OP
OP
- Thread starter
- #76
Sorry for the delay, but while we are waiting on the results of the very final week of March, here are the results for the releases earlier in the month
[NSW] Triangle Strategy (3 days)
This new IP from Team Asano was slightly overpredicted by our members, around 7000 units too high. Contrary to Octopath and Bravely Default, Square released this time a SRPG, a nicher genre than traditional JRPGs that could explain a part of the overprediction. Still, pretty much spot on overall.
Big congrats to @YuriCastro who topped both the units and % error margin rankings with his excellent 85 670 prediction, only 628 units away from the target which is a 0,7% margin of error. They were very closely followed by @ESCK Swiss who was only 702 units away. Top 3 also had two members with the same 85 000 prediction : @Kano and @thaluanttt.
Congrats to all of you !
[PS4+PS5] Gran Turismo 7 (3 days)
The big return of a numbered Gran Turismo game raised several questions after GTS lacking performance in Japan. However, it is pretty clear that the game largely overperformed IB's expectations. The PS5 ecosystem getting more healthy and a big spike in the allocation of the Anniversary edition (which has a PS4 and PS5 copy of the game) are potential reasons behind this big gap.
Big congrats to @Joseki who topped both the units and % error margin rankings with his excellent 139 357 prediction, only 1393 units away from the target which is a 1,0% margin of error. They were followed by @Kirby who had an 8,7% error margin. They were the only two members below a 10% error margin !
Thanks again for the big turnout this month with around 60 members ! You can already make your predictions for April too
www.installbaseforum.com
[NSW] Triangle Strategy (3 days)
This new IP from Team Asano was slightly overpredicted by our members, around 7000 units too high. Contrary to Octopath and Bravely Default, Square released this time a SRPG, a nicher genre than traditional JRPGs that could explain a part of the overprediction. Still, pretty much spot on overall.
Big congrats to @YuriCastro who topped both the units and % error margin rankings with his excellent 85 670 prediction, only 628 units away from the target which is a 0,7% margin of error. They were very closely followed by @ESCK Swiss who was only 702 units away. Top 3 also had two members with the same 85 000 prediction : @Kano and @thaluanttt.
Congrats to all of you !
[PS4+PS5] Gran Turismo 7 (3 days)
The big return of a numbered Gran Turismo game raised several questions after GTS lacking performance in Japan. However, it is pretty clear that the game largely overperformed IB's expectations. The PS5 ecosystem getting more healthy and a big spike in the allocation of the Anniversary edition (which has a PS4 and PS5 copy of the game) are potential reasons behind this big gap.
Big congrats to @Joseki who topped both the units and % error margin rankings with his excellent 139 357 prediction, only 1393 units away from the target which is a 1,0% margin of error. They were followed by @Kirby who had an 8,7% error margin. They were the only two members below a 10% error margin !
Thanks again for the big turnout this month with around 60 members ! You can already make your predictions for April too
Media Create Prediction League : April 2022
Hello everyone ! While we are still waiting on the final results of March, it is already time to open the April edition of the Prediction League ! We are aiming to host this prediction contest every month. The rules are simple, you can make and edit your prediction on the following titles...
www.installbaseforum.com
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FF, Kirby and Switch results
OP
OP
- Thread starter
- #77
And now we have the other results of the month with Final Fantasy, Kirby and Switch Hardware !
[PS4+PS5] Final Fantasy Origins (3 days)
This new FF spin-off by Koei-Tecmo was overpredicted by our members, around 33% too high. It has a been a while since the last FF spin-off and the cross-over with a Souls like gameplay was very promising given KT's own success with Nioh. However, the game failed to deliver on some key aspects that detracted its target audience from buying it.
Incredible but this time we have 4 members with the best prediction. Congrats to @Pooroomoo, @AruanaRiva ,@DarkDetective and @thaluanttt who topped both the units and % error margin rankings with their excellent 45000 prediction, less than 2000 units away from the target which is a 3,9% margin of error.
Congrats to all of you !
[NSW] Kirby and the Forgotten Land (3 days)
With its shift to 3D and a its increase in ambition and budget, a lot of excitement and questions were raised about the game's performance in Japan. Historically the franchise is very big in Japan so the question was whether the franchise's ceiling will be raised.
Very impressively, we got two extremely close predictions. Both @Stygr and @SBoy11 topped both the units and % error margin rankings with an exceptional 380 000 prediction, only 60 units away from the target which is a 0,0% margin of error. They were followed by @Banjokazooie1992 with another impressive prediction, with only 1,0% error margin. Three members below 1% of error margin is a very impressive feat !
[NSW] Switch hardware (5 weeks)
Finally, we can all say that we have been very close to guess the 5-weeks total of the Switch hardware during March. With 432k units sold, the Switch averaged 86k/week, more than the 84k/week of the consensus.
Congrats to @Chris1964 who topped both the units and % error margin rankings with his very spot on 432 109 prediction, less than 500 units away with a 0,1% margin of error. They were followed by @MysticGon at #2 and @BoktaiFan & @Astrogamer both at #3. They all were below a 1% of error margin.
Congrats to all of you !
While we are waiting on the aggregate ranking, you can already make your predictions for April too
[PS4+PS5] Final Fantasy Origins (3 days)
This new FF spin-off by Koei-Tecmo was overpredicted by our members, around 33% too high. It has a been a while since the last FF spin-off and the cross-over with a Souls like gameplay was very promising given KT's own success with Nioh. However, the game failed to deliver on some key aspects that detracted its target audience from buying it.
Incredible but this time we have 4 members with the best prediction. Congrats to @Pooroomoo, @AruanaRiva ,@DarkDetective and @thaluanttt who topped both the units and % error margin rankings with their excellent 45000 prediction, less than 2000 units away from the target which is a 3,9% margin of error.
Congrats to all of you !
[NSW] Kirby and the Forgotten Land (3 days)
With its shift to 3D and a its increase in ambition and budget, a lot of excitement and questions were raised about the game's performance in Japan. Historically the franchise is very big in Japan so the question was whether the franchise's ceiling will be raised.
Very impressively, we got two extremely close predictions. Both @Stygr and @SBoy11 topped both the units and % error margin rankings with an exceptional 380 000 prediction, only 60 units away from the target which is a 0,0% margin of error. They were followed by @Banjokazooie1992 with another impressive prediction, with only 1,0% error margin. Three members below 1% of error margin is a very impressive feat !
[NSW] Switch hardware (5 weeks)
Finally, we can all say that we have been very close to guess the 5-weeks total of the Switch hardware during March. With 432k units sold, the Switch averaged 86k/week, more than the 84k/week of the consensus.
Congrats to @Chris1964 who topped both the units and % error margin rankings with his very spot on 432 109 prediction, less than 500 units away with a 0,1% margin of error. They were followed by @MysticGon at #2 and @BoktaiFan & @Astrogamer both at #3. They all were below a 1% of error margin.
Congrats to all of you !
While we are waiting on the aggregate ranking, you can already make your predictions for April too
Media Create Prediction League : April 2022
OP
OP
- Thread starter
- #78
Okay now is the time to bring an answer to the question everyone's been asking. It is time to reveal the best predictors of March 2022 !
First, we had an impressive attendance this month with 59 predictions ! That's up from February by around 10.
Second, let's present how the IB consensus (its Median) did this month :
Now, here are the rankings for the best predictors of March 2022 (ranked by %error):
Congrats to the winner @AruanaRiva, all your predictions were good to great and the 6,9% of error margin on average is impressive. Congrats also to @Stygr which managed to take the #2 spot with some excellent predictions (notably Kirby's one) and to @Arynio who rounds up the top 3.
They were followed by several good predictors too. Overall, this month, 31 members had an error margin below 20%, congrats that's very impressive !
Overall thanks everyone for the participation, we had a great turnaround. For those looking for a higher ranking, don't be discouraged, it will eventually come and everyone prediected pretty well this month You can already take your chance for April here :
www.installbaseforum.com
Congrats to the winners again and let's look forward to a very exciting year to predict !
First, we had an impressive attendance this month with 59 predictions ! That's up from February by around 10.
Second, let's present how the IB consensus (its Median) did this month :
- Install Base Consensus error by units : 125 090 units (so 25 018/prediction on average)
- Install Base Consensus error by % : 17%
Now, here are the rankings for the best predictors of March 2022 (ranked by %error):
Congrats to the winner @AruanaRiva, all your predictions were good to great and the 6,9% of error margin on average is impressive. Congrats also to @Stygr which managed to take the #2 spot with some excellent predictions (notably Kirby's one) and to @Arynio who rounds up the top 3.
They were followed by several good predictors too. Overall, this month, 31 members had an error margin below 20%, congrats that's very impressive !
Overall thanks everyone for the participation, we had a great turnaround. For those looking for a higher ranking, don't be discouraged, it will eventually come and everyone prediected pretty well this month
You can already take your chance for April here :
Media Create Prediction League : April 2022
Hello everyone ! While we are still waiting on the final results of March, it is already time to open the April edition of the Prediction League ! We are aiming to host this prediction contest every month. The rules are simple, you can make and edit your prediction on the following titles...
www.installbaseforum.com
Congrats to the winners again and let's look forward to a very exciting year to predict !
O_O first time i win something lol. Prediction king baby.^_^
Congrats @AruanaRiva and thanks to @Lelouch0612 for putting in the work tallying up all the results.
OP
OP
- Thread starter
- #82
Everyone is sharpening their games
Not everyone...Everyone is sharpening their games
Q1 preliminary results !
OP
OP
- Thread starter
- #87
Now that the first quarter is over, I take it is a good time to show a first look at the current aggregate ranking.
In order to establish that one, I only took the members that participated during the 3 months and ranked them on their average monthly error margin. At the end of the semester, I'll give another look to this ranking that will remove the worst and missed month(s) for each predictor.
For now, let's focus on this first aggregate ranking, with the 29 members that predicted every month !
Congrats to @ESCK Swiss for having the lead so far, and to @Deluxury & @PillFencer, they make a great podium.
As more people enter the chart and with the option to remove the worst months, the overall picture might look vastly different in the coming months but that gives an idea in the meantime
In order to establish that one, I only took the members that participated during the 3 months and ranked them on their average monthly error margin. At the end of the semester, I'll give another look to this ranking that will remove the worst and missed month(s) for each predictor.
For now, let's focus on this first aggregate ranking, with the 29 members that predicted every month !
Congrats to @ESCK Swiss for having the lead so far, and to @Deluxury & @PillFencer, they make a great podium.
As more people enter the chart and with the option to remove the worst months, the overall picture might look vastly different in the coming months but that gives an idea in the meantime
Me trying to predict Japanese sales in Simpsons-gif form:
(thx for the data @Lelouch0612 , always love these things ^^)
(thx for the data @Lelouch0612 , always love these things ^^)
Really competitive month, which means everyone did great! Only a 17% error margin on average is really good!
Congrats to the winners and a really big shoutout to Lelouch for compiling these charts every month!
Congrats to the winners and a really big shoutout to Lelouch for compiling these charts every month!
- Pronouns
- they/them
Quarterly results are quite nice!
Your accuracy is increasing exponentially thoughMe trying to predict Japanese sales in Simpsons-gif form:
(thx for the data @Lelouch0612 , always love these things ^^)
