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Media Create Prediction League : June 2024 [Final results]

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Lelouch0612

Lelouch0612

Staff
Archivist Genius Staff
Hello everyone!

While we are still waiting on the final results of April+May, it is now time to open the June edition of the Prediction League!

We are aiming to host this prediction contest every month, when the release schedule allows it.

The rules are simple, you can make and edit your prediction on the following titles until June 9th 23:59 CEST which basically means that as soon the COMG orders chart is updated, you can no longer change your prediction. So don't edit your post after that deadline.

At the end of the month, the results will be shared and the predictors will be ranked by units and %mean error. This is now the fourth yearly edition of this contest.

The tracked period will be June 3rd to June 30th (4 weeks). I also ask you to respect the following formatting :

[Platform] Full name of the game (number of days accounted) : 100 000

Now let's get things started with the June Edition of the Media Create Prediction League !

[NSW] Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance (3 days) -
[PS5+PS4] Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance (3 days) -
[NSW] Luigi's Mansion 2 HD (4 days) -
[NSW] Nintendo Switch Hardware (28 days) -
[PS5] Playstation 5 Hardware (28 days) -

New to this year's edition, the top predictors will be rewarded by the following betting coins:
  • 1st - 300 coins
  • 2nd - 200 coins
  • 3rd - 150 coins
  • 4th/5th - 100 coins
  • 6th to 10th - 50 coins
 
[NSW] Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance (3 days) - 45 000
[PS5+PS4] Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance (3 days) - 34 000
[NSW] Luigi's Mansion 2 HD (4 days) - 67 000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch Hardware (28 days) - 190 000
[PS5] Playstation 5 Hardware (28 days) - 108 000
 
[NSW] Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance (3 days) - 32.100
[PS5+PS4] Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance (3 days) - 12.300
[NSW] Luigi's Mansion 2 HD (4 days) - 166.666
[NSW] Nintendo Switch Hardware (28 days) - 200.000
[PS5] Playstation 5 Hardware (28 days) - 88.888
 
Last edited:
[NSW] Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance (3 days) - 40.100
[PS5+PS4] Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance (3 days) - 37.800
[NSW] Luigi's Mansion 2 HD (4 days) - 80.000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch Hardware (28 days) - 135.090
[PS5] Playstation 5 Hardware (28 days) - 118.000
 
[NSW] Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance (3 days) - 32 000
[PS5+PS4] Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance (3 days) - 16 000
[NSW] Luigi's Mansion 2 HD (4 days) - 59 000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch Hardware (28 days) - 184 000
[PS5] Playstation 5 Hardware (28 days) - 79 000
 
[NSW] Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance (3 days) - 39 000
[PS5+PS4] Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance (3 days) - 27 000
[NSW] Luigi's Mansion 2 HD (4 days) - 120 000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch Hardware (28 days) - 143 000
[PS5] Playstation 5 Hardware (28 days) - 92 000
 
[NSW] Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance (3 days) - 35.000
[PS5+PS4] Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance (3 days) - 20.000
[NSW] Luigi's Mansion 2 HD (4 days) - 90.000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch Hardware (28 days) - 160.000
[PS5] Playstation 5 Hardware (28 days) - 100.000
 
[NSW] Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance (3 days) - 43.210
[PS5+PS4] Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance (3 days) - 21.098
[NSW] Luigi's Mansion 2 HD (4 days) - 123.456
[NSW] Nintendo Switch Hardware (28 days) - 176.543
[PS5] Playstation 5 Hardware (28 days) - 76.543

Are those 28 days for hw 4 or 3 weeks? I'm calculating with 4 weeks.
 
[NSW] Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance (3 days) - 55,555
[PS5+PS4] Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance (3 days) - 33,333
[NSW] Luigi's Mansion 2 HD (4 days) - 111,111
[NSW] Nintendo Switch Hardware (28 days) - 191,191
[PS5] Playstation 5 Hardware (28 days) - 77,777
 
[NSW] Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance (3 days) - 89999
[PS5+PS4] Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance (3 days) - 49999
[NSW] Luigi's Mansion 2 HD (4 days) - 109999
[NSW] Nintendo Switch Hardware (28 days) - 189999
[PS5] Playstation 5 Hardware (28 days) - 94999
 
Last edited:
[NSW] Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance (3 days) - 67 000
[PS5+PS4] Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance (3 days) - 34 000
[NSW] Luigi's Mansion 2 HD (4 days) - 76 000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch Hardware (28 days) - 167 000
[PS5] Playstation 5 Hardware (28 days) - 82 000
 
[NSW] Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance (3 days) - 52 925
[PS5+PS4] Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance (3 days) - 38 483
[NSW] Luigi's Mansion 2 HD (4 days) - 107 701
[NSW] Nintendo Switch Hardware (28 days) - 176 671
[PS5] PlayStation 5 Hardware (28 days) - 81 518

BONUS:
[XBS] Xbox Series X|S Hardware (28 days) - 9 229
 
[NSW] Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance (3 days) - 40.000
[PS5+PS4] Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance (3 days) - 24.000
[NSW] Luigi's Mansion 2 HD (4 days) - 80.000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch Hardware (28 days) - 180.000
[PS5] Playstation 5 Hardware (28 days) - 90.000
 
[NSW] Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance (3 days) - 72.000
[PS5+PS4] Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance (3 days) - 28.000
[NSW] Luigi's Mansion 2 HD (4 days) - 78.000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch Hardware (28 days) - 162.000
[PS5] Playstation 5 Hardware (28 days) - 112 000
 
[NSW] Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance (3 days) - 66.666
[PS5+PS4] Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance (3 days) - 31.450
[NSW] Luigi's Mansion 2 HD (4 days) - 120.000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch Hardware (28 days) - 140.000
[PS5] Playstation 5 Hardware (28 days) - 68.000
 
[NSW] Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance (3 days) : 25 000
[PS5+PS4] Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance (3 days) : 15 000
[NSW] Luigi's Mansion 2 HD (4 days) : 85 000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch Hardware (28 days) : 150 000
[PS5] Playstation 5 Hardware (28 days) : 70 000
 
[NSW] Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance (3 days) - 52 525
[PS5+PS4] Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance (3 days) - 31 313
[NSW] Luigi's Mansion 2 HD (4 days) - 131 313
[NSW] Nintendo Switch Hardware (28 days) - 191 919
[PS5] Playstation 5 Hardware (28 days) - 72 727
 
Last edited:
[NSW] Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance (3 days) - 35.000
[PS5+PS4] Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance (3 days) - 22.000
[NSW] Luigi's Mansion 2 HD (4 days) - 125.000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch Hardware (28 days) - 170.000
[PS5] Playstation 5 Hardware (28 days) - 80.000
 
[NSW] Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance (3 days) - 29.397
[PS5+PS4] Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance (3 days) - 18.225
[NSW] Luigi's Mansion 2 HD (4 days) - 101.202
[NSW] Nintendo Switch Hardware (28 days) - 147.006
[PS5] Playstation 5 Hardware (28 days) - 73.503
 
[NSW] Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance (3 days) - 45 000
[PS5+PS4] Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance (3 days) - 35 000
[NSW] Luigi's Mansion 2 HD (4 days) - 120 000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch Hardware (28 days) - 190 000
[PS5] Playstation 5 Hardware (28 days) - 87 000
 
Last edited:
[NSW] Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance (3 days) - 50.000
[PS5+PS4] Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance (3 days) - 22.500
[NSW] Luigi's Mansion 2 HD (4 days) - 90.000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch Hardware (28 days) - 180.000
[PS5] Playstation 5 Hardware (28 days) - 82.500
 
Last edited:
[NSW] Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance (3 days) - 42.000
[PS5+PS4] Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance (3 days) - 27.000
[NSW] Luigi's Mansion 2 HD (4 days) - 103.000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch Hardware (28 days) - 158.000
[PS5] Playstation 5 Hardware (28 days) - 94.000
 
[NSW] Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance (3 days) : 37000
[PS5+PS4] Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance (3 days) : 21 000
[NSW] Luigi's Mansion 2 HD (4 days) : 100 000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch Hardware (28 days) : 147.000
[PS5] Playstation 5 Hardware (28 days) : 80.000
 
[NSW] Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance - 47 000
[PS5+PS4] Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance - 36 000
[NSW] Luigi's Mansion 2 HD - 75 000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch Hardware - 155 000
[PS5] Playstation 5 Hardware - 95 000
 
[NSW] Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance - 34 000
[PS5+PS4] Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance - 23 000
[NSW] Luigi's Mansion 2 HD - 103 000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch Hardware - 142 000
[PS5] Playstation 5 Hardware - 77 000
 
NSW] Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance - 29 000
[PS5+PS4] Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance - 12 000
[NSW] Luigi's Mansion 2 HD - 99 000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch Hardware - 130 000
[PS5] Playstation 5 Hardware - 62 000
 
[NSW] Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance (3 days) - 53 000
[PS5+PS4] Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance (3 days) - 25 000
[NSW] Luigi's Mansion 2 HD (4 days) - 80 500
[NSW] Nintendo Switch Hardware (28 days) - 154 000
[PS5] Playstation 5 Hardware (28 days) - 91 000
 
Last edited:
[NSW] Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance (3 days) - 60.000
[PS5+PS4] Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance (3 days) - 30.000
[NSW] Luigi's Mansion 2 HD (4 days) - 96.000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch Hardware (28 days) - 196.000
[PS5] Playstation 5 Hardware (28 days) - 89.000
 
[NSW] Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance (3 days) - 46,000
[PS5+PS4] Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance (3 days) - 23,000
[NSW] Luigi's Mansion 2 HD (4 days) - 79,000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch Hardware (28 days) - 160,000
[PS5] Playstation 5 Hardware (28 days) - 81,000
 
[NSW] Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance (3 days) - 40.000
[PS5+PS4] Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance (3 days) - 23.000
[NSW] Luigi's Mansion 2 HD (4 days) - 120.000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch Hardware (28 days) - 159.000
[PS5] Playstation 5 Hardware (28 days) - 79.000
 
[NSW] Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance (3 days) - 46.000
[PS5+PS4] Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance (3 days) - 23.000
[NSW] Luigi's Mansion 2 HD (4 days) - 94.000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch Hardware (28 days) - 171.000
[PS5] Playstation 5 Hardware (28 days) - 86.000

Placeholders
I don't expect big numbers for SMTV V, early signs are way worse than SMT V which opened at 143k back then
For reference too

FW
SMTIV 184k
SMTIV Final 96k

NSW and PS5 seem to have a baseline at >40k and >20k respectively

LM3 opened at 150k, LM2 is only a remaster, although mega late LM1 port on 3DS opened at 29k in 2018 for example.
At the same time the IP has grown, 2024 NSW is certainly not 2018 3DS so there's still easily a ~500k LTD potential but that's with digital and post launch legs and while its retail number shouldn't do a x7 like LM3 did, x3 or x4 are not outside the realm of possibility so 94kx3.5 : 329k & +/- 30% digital ratio gives <500k
 
[NSW] Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance (3 days) - 48,000
[PS5+PS4] Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance (3 days) - 25,000
[NSW] Luigi's Mansion 2 HD (4 days) - 79,000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch Hardware (28 days) - 165,000
[PS5] Playstation 5 Hardware (28 days) - 80,000
 
[NSW] Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance (3 days) - 33000
[PS5+PS4] Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance (3 days) - 26000
[NSW] Luigi's Mansion 2 HD (4 days) - 69000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch Hardware (28 days) - 190.000
[PS5] Playstation 5 Hardware (28 days) - 84000
 
[NSW] Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance (3 days) - 51.000
[PS5+PS4] Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance (3 days) - 19.000
[NSW] Luigi's Mansion 2 HD (4 days) - 125.000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch Hardware (28 days) - 188.000
[PS5] Playstation 5 Hardware (28 days) - 92.000
 
[NSW] Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance (3 days) - 55k
[PS5+PS4] Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance (3 days) - 27k
[NSW] Luigi's Mansion 2 HD (4 days) - 101k
[NSW] Nintendo Switch Hardware (28 days) - 168k
[PS5] Playstation 5 Hardware (28 days) - 91k
 
[NSW] Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance (3 days) - 32 000
[PS5+PS4] Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance (3 days) - 28 000
[NSW] Luigi's Mansion 2 HD (4 days) - 72 000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch Hardware (28 days) - 152 000
[PS5] Playstation 5 Hardware (28 days) - 88 000
 
[NSW] Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance (3 days) - 39.000
[PS5+PS4] Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance (3 days) - 24.000
[NSW] Luigi's Mansion 2 HD (4 days) - 89.000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch Hardware (28 days) - 180.000
[PS5] Playstation 5 Hardware (28 days) - 83.500
 
[NSW] Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance (3 days) - 42,000
[PS5+PS4] Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance (3 days) - 33,000
[NSW] Luigi's Mansion 2 HD (4 days) - 60,000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch Hardware (28 days) - 158,000
[PS5] Playstation 5 Hardware (28 days) - 88,000
 
[NSW] Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance (3 days) - 54,321
[PS5+PS4] Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance (3 days) - 23,456
[NSW] Luigi's Mansion 2 HD (4 days) - 98,765
[NSW] Nintendo Switch Hardware (28 days) - 187,654
[PS5] Playstation 5 Hardware (28 days) - 87,654
 
[NSW] Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance (3 days) - 45,000
[PS5+PS4] Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance (3 days) - 35,000
[NSW] Luigi's Mansion 2 HD (4 days) - 72,000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch Hardware (28 days) - 183,000
[PS5] Playstation 5 Hardware (28 days) - 99,000
 
[NSW] Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance (3 days) - 55 000
[PS5+PS4] Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance (3 days) - 44 000
[NSW] Luigi's Mansion 2 HD (4 days) - 88 000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch Hardware (28 days) - 177 000
[PS5] Playstation 5 Hardware (28 days) - 77 000
 
Last edited:
[NSW] Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance (3 days) - 54.000
[PS5+PS4] Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance (3 days) - 39.000
[NSW] Luigi's Mansion 2 HD (4 days) - 100.000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch Hardware (28 days) - 192.000
[PS5] Playstation 5 Hardware (28 days) - 89.000
 
Last edited:
[NSW] Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance (3 days) - 48.000
[PS5+PS4] Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance (3 days) - 31.000
[NSW] Luigi's Mansion 2 HD (4 days) -85.000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch Hardware (28 days) -170.000
[PS5] Playstation 5 Hardware (28 days) -90.000
 
[NSW] Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance (3 days) - 45.678
[PS5+PS4] Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance (3 days) - 23.456
[NSW] Luigi's Mansion 2 HD (4 days) - 67.890
[NSW] Nintendo Switch Hardware (28 days) - 210.987
[PS5] Playstation 5 Hardware (28 days) - 87.654
 
[NSW] Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance (3 days) - 35.600
[PS5+PS4] Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance (3 days) - 21.477
[NSW] Luigi's Mansion 2 HD (4 days) - 69.789
[NSW] Nintendo Switch Hardware (28 days) - 175.000
[PS5] Playstation 5 Hardware (28 days) - 82.101
 
[NSW] Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance (3 days) - 46 000
[PS5+PS4] Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance (3 days) - 34 000
[NSW] Luigi's Mansion 2 HD (4 days) - 78 000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch Hardware (28 days) - 176 000
[PS5] Playstation 5 Hardware (28 days) - 83 000
 
[NSW] Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance (3 days) - 42.326
[PS5+PS4] Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance (3 days) - 30.623
[NSW] Luigi's Mansion 2 HD (4 days) - 69.235
[NSW] Nintendo Switch Hardware (28 days) - 166.236
[PS5] Playstation 5 Hardware (28 days) - 94.346
 
[NSW] Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance (3 days) - 50.000
[PS5+PS4] Shin Megami Tensei V: Vengeance (3 days) - 30.000
[NSW] Luigi's Mansion 2 HD (4 days) - 75.000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch Hardware (28 days) - 190.000
[PS5] Playstation 5 Hardware (28 days) - 85.000
 
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