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Media Create Prediction League : June 2022 [FULL RESULTS !! + OVERALL RANKING]

Hello everyone !

While we are still waiting on the final results of April, it is already time to open the June edition of the Prediction League !

We are aiming to host this prediction contest every month. May was skipped because of the lack of games. The rules are simple, you can make and edit your prediction on the following titles until June 5th 23:59 CEST which basically means that as soon the COMG orders chart is updated, you can no longer change your prediction. So don't edit your post after that deadline.

At the end of the month, the results will be shared and the predictors will be ranked by units and %mean error. This is the second yearly edition of this contest already.

The tracked period will be June 6th to July 3rd (4 weeks). I also ask you to respect the following formatting :

[Platform] Full name of the game (number of days accounted) : 100 000

Now let's get things started with the June edition of the Media Create Prediction League !

[NSW] Mario Strikers (3 days) -
[NSW] Demon's Slayer (4 days) -
[NSW] Fire Emblem Warriors: Three Hopes (4 days) -
[NSW] Monster Hunter Rise + Sunbreak Set (4 days) -
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (4 weeks) -

If you have any remarks or suggestions, don't hesitate to share !

Media Create Prediction League : January 2021
Media Create Prediction League : February 2021
Media Create Prediction League : March 2021
 
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[NSW] Mario Strikers (3 days) - 86.000
[NSW] Demon's Slayer (4 days) - 108.000
[NSW] Fire Emblem Warriors: Three Hopes (4 days) - 96.000
[NSW] Monster Hunter Rise: Sunbreak (4 days) - 209.000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (4 weeks) - 252.000
 
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[NSW] Mario Strikers (3 days) - 82500
[NSW] Demon's Slayer (4 days) - 75000
[NSW] Fire Emblem Warriors: Three Hopes (4 days) - 105000
[NSW] Monster Hunter Rise: Sunbreak (4 days) - 156000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (4 weeks) - 265000
 
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Historical data/comparisons:


[NSW] Mario Strikers: Battle League (Week 1)

[GCN] Mario Golf: Toadstool Tour - 63.263
[GCN] Mario Power Tennis - 139.826
[GCN] Mario Strikers - 69.691

[WII] Mario Strikers: Charged - 32.725
[WII] New Play Control! Mario Power Tennis - 55.391

[NSW] Mario Tennis Aces - 122.070
[NSW] Mario Golf: Super Rush - 80.430

_________________________________________________________

[NSW] Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba - The Hinokami Chronicles (Week 1)

[PS4] Dragon Ball: Xenoverse 2 - 61.375
10 months later -> [NSW] Dragon Ball: Xenoverse 2 for Nintendo Switch - 23.011

[PS4] Dragon Ball FighterZ - 59.465
8 months later -> [NSW] Dragon Ball FighterZ - 22.498

[PS4] Dragon Ball Z: Kakarot - 89.537
20 months later -> [NSW] Dragon Ball Z: Kakarot + A New Power Awakens Set - 42.074

[PS4+PS5] Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba - The Hinokami Chronicles - 115.036
8 months later -> ?

_________________________________________________________

[NSW] Fire Emblem Warriors: Three Hopes (Week 1)

[3DS+NSW] Fire Emblem Warriors - 62.154 (40.606 on Switch)
[NSW] Fire Emblem: Three Houses - 143.130

[PS4+NSW] Warriors Orochi 4 - 134.368 (28.493 on Switch)
[PS4+NSW] One Piece: Pirate Warriors 4 - 137.569 (61.571 on Switch)
[NSW] Hyrule Warriors: Age of Calamity - 173.215
[PS4+NSW] Samurai Warriors 5 - 94.366 (38.691 on Switch)
[NSW] Touken Ranbu Warriors - 113.159

_________________________________________________________

[NSW] Monster Hunter Rise + Sunbreak Set (Week 1)

[PS4] Monster Hunter: World - 1.350.412
[PS4] Monster Hunter: World - Iceborne Master Edition - 206.156

[NSW] Monster Hunter Rise - 1.302.132
 
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[NSW] Mario Strikers (3 days) - 123 000
[NSW] Demon's Slayer (4 days) - 111 000
[NSW] Fire Emblem Warriors: Three Hopes (4 days) - 135 000
[NSW] Monster Hunter Rise: Sunbreak (4 days) - 246 000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (4 weeks) - 260 000
 
Historical data/comparisons:


[NSW] Mario Strikers: Battle League (Week 1)

[GCN] Mario Golf: Toadstool Tour - 63.263
[GCN] Mario Power Tennis - 139.826
[GCN] Mario Strikers - 69.691

[WII] Mario Strikers: Charged - 32.725
[WII] New Play Control! Mario Power Tennis - 55.391

[NSW] Mario Tennis Aces - 122.070
[NSW] Mario Golf: Super Rush - 80.430

_________________________________________________________

[NSW] Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba - The Hinokami Chronicles (Week 1)

[PS4] Dragon Ball: Xenoverse 2 - 61.375
10 months later -> [NSW] Dragon Ball: Xenoverse 2 for Nintendo Switch - 23.011

[PS4] Dragon Ball FighterZ - 59.465
8 months later -> [NSW] Dragon Ball FighterZ - 22.498

[PS4] Dragon Ball Z: Kakarot - 89.537
20 months later -> [NSW] Dragon Ball Z: Kakarot + A New Power Awakens Set - 42.074

[PS4+PS5] Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba - The Hinokami Chronicles - 115.036
8 months later -> ?

_________________________________________________________

[NSW] Fire Emblem Warriors: Three Hopes (Week 1)

[3DS+NSW] Fire Emblem Warriors - 62.154 (40.606 on Switch)
[NSW] Fire Emblem: Three Houses - 143.130

[PS4+NSW] Warriors Orochi 4 - 134.368 (28.493 on Switch)
[PS4+NSW] One Piece: Pirate Warriors 4 - 137.569 (61.571 on Switch)
[NSW] Hyrule Warriors: Age of Calamity - 173.215
[PS4+NSW] Samurai Warriors 5 - 94.366 (38.691 on Switch)
[NSW] Touken Ranbu Warriors - 113.159

_________________________________________________________

[NSW] Monster Hunter Rise: Sunbreak (Week 1)

[PS4] Monster Hunter: World - 1.350.412
[PS4] Monster Hunter: World - Iceborne Master Edition - 206.156
[PS4] Monster Hunter: World - Iceborne (Download Card) - 44.160

[NSW] Monster Hunter Rise - 1.302.132

To add to this for hardware W24-27 (W22/23 won’t count here) I’ll post yearly below!

W24-27 Rounded

2017: 137k
2018: 186k
2019: 198k
2020: 280k
2021: 311k
2022: ???.?k
 
[NSW] Mario Strikers (3 days) - 90.000
[NSW] Demon's Slayer (4 days) - 100.000
[NSW] Fire Emblem Warriors: Three Hopes (4 days) - 85.000
[NSW] Monster Hunter Rise: Sunbreak (4 days) - 150.000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (4 weeks) - 260.000
 
[NSW] Mario Strikers (3 days) - 105.000
[NSW] Demon Slayer (4 days) - 108.000
[NSW] Fire Emblem Warriors: Three Hopes (4 days) - 115.000
[NSW] Monster Hunter Rise: Sunbreak (4 days) - 220.000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (4 weeks) - 250.000

Btw, it's called "Demon Slayer", not "Demon's Slayer".
 
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[NSW] Mario Strikers (3 days) : 80 000
[NSW] Demon's Slayer (4 days) : 70 000
[NSW] Fire Emblem Warriors: Three Hopes (4 days) : 100 000
[NSW] Monster Hunter Rise: Sunbreak (4 days) : 200 000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (4 weeks) : 250 000
 
[NSW] Mario Strikers (3 days) - 100 003
[NSW] Demon's Slayer (4 days) - 76 000
[NSW] Fire Emblem Warriors: Three Hopes (4 days) - 113 000
[NSW] Monster Hunter Rise: Sunbreak (4 days) - 156 000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (4 weeks) - 272 000
 
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[NSW] Mario Strikers (3 days) -103,000
[NSW] Demon Slayer (4 days)- 95,000
[NSW] Fire Emblem Warriors: Three Hopes (4 days) - 115,000
[NSW] Monster Hunter Rise: Sunbreak (4 days) - 199,000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (4 weeks) - 265,000
 
[NSW] Mario Strikers (3 days) - 85 000
[NSW] Demon's Slayer (4 days) - 55 000
[NSW] Fire Emblem Warriors: Three Hopes (4 days) - 80 000
[NSW] Monster Hunter Rise: Sunbreak (4 days) - 175 000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (4 weeks) - 235 000
 
[NSW] Mario Strikers (3 days) - 77000
[NSW] Demon's Slayer (4 days) - 93000
[NSW] Fire Emblem Warriors: Three Hopes (4 days) - 82000
[NSW] Monster Hunter Rise: Sunbreak (4 days) - 211000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (4 weeks) - 256000
 
[NSW] Mario Strikers (3 days) - 76.543
[NSW] Demon's Slayer (4 days) - 89.012
[NSW] Fire Emblem Warriors: Three Hopes (4 days) - 98.765
[NSW] Monster Hunter Rise: Sunbreak (4 days) - 210.987
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (4 weeks) - 234.568
 
[NSW] Mario Strikers (3 days) -65,000
[NSW] Demon Slayer (4 days)- 95,000
[NSW] Fire Emblem Warriors: Three Hopes (4 days) - 70,000
[NSW] Monster Hunter Rise: Sunbreak (4 days) - 190,000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (4 weeks) - 260,000
 
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[NSW] Mario Strikers (3 days) - 72 000
[NSW] Demon's Slayer (4 days) - 79 000
[NSW] Fire Emblem Warriors: Three Hopes (4 days) - 83 000
[NSW] Monster Hunter Rise: Sunbreak (4 days) - 296 000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (4 weeks) - 250 000
 
I feel like I need to make a clarification, Monster Hunter Rise: Sunbreak is only including the retail release.

Since Famitsu tracks digital codes, we will see the Sunbreak DLC appear too but that won't be included.
Ah yeah thanks for clarifying, since it was "Monster Hunter Rise: Sunbreak" and not "Monster Hunter Rise + Sunbreak Set" I clearly took it as being a prediction for all SKUs of the expansion and not just the bundle (and technically the download card is a retail release too 🤔)
 
Ah yeah thanks for clarifying, since it was "Monster Hunter Rise: Sunbreak" and not "Monster Hunter Rise + Sunbreak Set" I clearly took it as being a prediction for all SKUs of the expansion and not just the bundle (and technically the download card is a retail release too 🤔)
Okay, now I'm confused: What is it that releases? The regular MHRise with a code for Sunbreak? Or is there a retail-version of Sunbreak with all the content on the cartridge? The latter is what I assumed to predict, hence why all those low predictions made me think "wat".
 
[NSW] Mario Strikers (3 days) - 125.000
[NSW] Demon's Slayer (4 days) - 92.000
[NSW] Fire Emblem Warriors: Three Hopes (4 days) - 121.000
[NSW] Monster Hunter Rise: Sunbreak (4 days) - 209.000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (4 weeks) - 229.000
 
[NSW] Mario Strikers (3 days) - 125000
[NSW] Demon's Slayer (4 days) - 82000
[NSW] Fire Emblem Warriors: Three Hopes (4 days) - 123000
[NSW] Monster Hunter Rise: Sunbreak (4 days) - 184000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (4 weeks) - 245000
 
Okay, now I'm confused: What is it that releases? The regular MHRise with a code for Sunbreak? Or is there a retail-version of Sunbreak with all the content on the cartridge? The latter is what I assumed to predict, hence why all those low predictions made me think "wat".
Monster Hunter Rise + Sunbreak Set ¥7.990, includes game card for Monster Hunter Rise and download code for its DLC Monster Hunter Rise: Sunbreak
Monster Hunter Rise: Sunbreak (Download Card) ¥4.536, only a code for the DLC

If Famitsu is consistent they'll list both in their weekly charts, like they did with Iceborne:

Famitsu Sales: Week 36, 2019 (Sep 02 - Sep 08)

01./00. [PS4] Monster Hunter: World - Iceborne Master Edition <Monster Hunter: World \ Monster Hunter: World - Iceborne> # <ACT> (Capcom) {2019.09.06} (¥6.990) - 206.156 / NEW <40-60%>
02./00. [PS4] Monster Hunter: World - Iceborne (ε) _PS Store Download Version_ |DL| (Download Card) # <ACT> (Capcom) {2019.09.06} (¥4.444) - 44.160 / NEW <80-100%>

Though Lelouch just said that only the bundle should be included in our predictions.
 
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[NSW] Mario Strikers (3 days) - 62.316
[NSW] Demon Slayer (4 days) - 71.144
[NSW] Fire Emblem Warriors: Three Hopes (3 days) - 85.419
[NSW] Monster Hunter Rise + Sunbreak Set (4 days) - 164.425
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (4 weeks) - 283.362
 
I know that the MHR + Sunbreak set is more expensive than the MHW Iceborne Master Edition. But the difference isn't really big so why do so many expect Sunbreak to sell so much less?
 
I know that the MHR + Sunbreak set is more expensive than the MHW Iceborne Master Edition. But the difference isn't really big so why do so many expect Sunbreak to sell so much less?
As for my reasoning: I think people will predominantely buy the digital code, because the base game already was a massive success, so naturally there will be less newcomers who go for the bundle. If Lelouch had added the dlc cards for Sunbreak, I'd predict those to be higher than Iceborne's.
 
I know that the MHR + Sunbreak set is more expensive than the MHW Iceborne Master Edition. But the difference isn't really big so why do so many expect Sunbreak to sell so much less?
Iceborne included the game on the disk so you could resell it, Sunbreak is a code so there will not be this option. This makes it a less attractive product to buy with little to no advantage than just buying a used MH:Rise copy and buying the Sunbreak DLC in the eShop.
 
[NSW] Mario Strikers (3 days) - 80 000
[NSW] Demon's Slayer (4 days) - 110 000
[NSW] Fire Emblem Warriors: Three Hopes (4 days) - 80 000
[NSW] Monster Hunter Rise + Sunbreak Set (4 days) - 195 000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (4 weeks) - 250 000
 
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[NSW] Mario Strikers (3 days) - 80.000
[NSW] Demon's Slayer (4 days) - 75.000
[NSW] Fire Emblem Warriors: Three Hopes (4 days) - 100.000
[NSW] Monster Hunter Rise: Sunbreak (4 days) - 240.000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (4 weeks) - 260.000
 
[NSW] Mario Strikers (3 days) - 90000
[NSW] Demon Slayer (4 days) - 110000
[NSW] Fire Emblem Warriors: Three Hopes (4 days) - 117000
[NSW] Monster Hunter Rise + Sunbreak Set (4 days) - 200000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (4 weeks) - 230000
 
[NSW] Mario Strikers (3 days) - 75.000
[NSW] Demon's Slayer (4 days) - 60.000
[NSW] Fire Emblem Warriors: Three Hopes (4 days) - 80.000
[NSW] Monster Hunter Rise + Sunbreak Set (4 days) - 225.000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (4 weeks) - 260.000
 
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[NSW] Mario Strikers (3 days) - 115.000
[NSW] Demon's Slayer (4 days) - 80.000
[NSW] Fire Emblem Warriors: Three Hopes (4 days) - 95.000
[NSW] Monster Hunter Rise + Sunbreak Set (4 days) - 250.000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (4 weeks) - 285.000
 
[NSW] Mario Strikers (3 days) - 87.050
[NSW] Demon's Slayer (4 days) - 95.000
[NSW] Fire Emblem Warriors: Three Hopes (4 days) - 83.500
[NSW] Monster Hunter Rise + Sunbreak Set (4 days) - 234.050
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (4 weeks) - 270.005
 
[NSW] Mario Strikers (3 days) - 77.050
[NSW] Demon's Slayer (4 days) - 106.500
[NSW] Fire Emblem Warriors: Three Hopes (4 days) - 96.500
[NSW] Monster Hunter Rise + Sunbreak Set (4 days) - 225.000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (4 weeks) - 280.000
 
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[NSW] Mario Strikers (3 days) - 97.500
[NSW] Demon's Slayer (4 days) - 101.000
[NSW] Fire Emblem Warriors: Three Hopes (4 days) - 78.500
[NSW] Monster Hunter Rise + Sunbreak Set (4 days) - 236.000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (4 weeks) - 283.000
 
[NSW] Mario Strikers (3 days) - 115.242
[NSW] Demon's Slayer (4 days) - 110.000
[NSW] Fire Emblem Warriors: Three Hopes (4 days) - 96.500
[NSW] Monster Hunter Rise + Sunbreak Set (4 days) - 260.000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (4 weeks) - 275.400
 
[NSW] Mario Strikers (3 days) - 90.000
[NSW] Demon's Slayer (4 days) - 87.000
[NSW] Fire Emblem Warriors: Three Hopes (4 days) - 95.000
[NSW] Monster Hunter Rise + Sunbreak Set (4 days) - 202.000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (4 weeks) - 240.000
 
[NSW] Mario Strikers (3 days) - 104.456
[NSW] Demon's Slayer (4 days) - 106.723
[NSW] Fire Emblem Warriors: Three Hopes (4 days) - 65.578
[NSW] Monster Hunter Rise + Sunbreak Set (4 days) - 244.890
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (4 weeks) - 259.620
 
[NSW] Mario Strikers (3 days) - 96.000
[NSW] Demon's Slayer (4 days) - 115.000
[NSW] Fire Emblem Warriors: Three Hopes (4 days) - 82.000
[NSW] Monster Hunter Rise + Sunbreak Set (4 days) - 240.000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (4 weeks) - 248.000
 
[NSW] Mario Strikers (3 days) - 68,000
[NSW] Demon's Slayer (4 days) - 80,000
[NSW] Fire Emblem Warriors: Three Hopes (4 days) - 78,000
[NSW] Monster Hunter Rise + Sunbreak Set (4 days) - 158,000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (4 weeks) - 240,000
 
[NSW] Mario Strikers (3 days) - 73.000
[NSW] Demon's Slayer (4 days) - 102.000
[NSW] Fire Emblem Warriors: Three Hopes (4 days) - 105.000
[NSW] Monster Hunter Rise: Sunbreak (4 days) - 165.000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (4 weeks) - 254.000
 
[NSW] Mario Strikers (3 days) - 60,000
[NSW] Demon's Slayer (4 days) - 100,000
[NSW] Fire Emblem Warriors: Three Hopes (4 days) - 100,000
[NSW] Monster Hunter Rise + Sunbreak Set (4 days) - 200,000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (4 weeks) - 240,000
 
[NSW] Mario Strikers (3 days) - 73,060
[NSW] Demon's Slayer (4 days) - 90,060
[NSW] Fire Emblem Warriors: Three Hopes (4 days) - 76,060
[NSW] Monster Hunter Rise + Sunbreak Set (4 days) - 170,060
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (4 weeks) - 240,060
 
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[NSW] Mario Strikers (3 days) - 100000
[NSW] Demon's Slayer (4 days) - 100000
[NSW] Fire Emblem Warriors: Three Hopes (4 days) - 100000
[NSW] Monster Hunter Rise + Sunbreak Set (4 days) - 200000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (4 weeks) - 250000
 
[NSW] Mario Strikers (3 days) - 75 000
[NSW] Demon's Slayer (4 days) - 80 000
[NSW] Fire Emblem Warriors: Three Hopes (4 days) - 100 000
[NSW] Monster Hunter Rise + Sunbreak Set (4 days) - 300 000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (4 weeks) - 300 000
 
[NSW] Mario Strikers (3 days) - 89.000
[NSW] Demon's Slayer (4 days) - 99.000
[NSW] Fire Emblem Warriors: Three Hopes (4 days) - 102.000
[NSW] Monster Hunter Rise: Sunbreak (4 days) - 220.000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (4 weeks) - 247.000
 
[NSW] Mario Strikers (3 days) - 80.000
[NSW] Demon's Slayer (4 days) - 133.000
[NSW] Fire Emblem Warriors: Three Hopes (4 days) - 120.000
[NSW] Monster Hunter Rise: Sunbreak (4 days) - 333.000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (4 weeks) - 266.000
 
[NSW] Mario Strikers (3 days) - 65.000
[NSW] Demon's Slayer (4 days) - 90.000
[NSW] Fire Emblem Warriors: Three Hopes (4 days) - 90.000
[NSW] Monster Hunter Rise: Sunbreak (4 days) - 200.000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (4 weeks) - 245.000
 
[NSW] Mario Strikers (3 days) - 89.899
[NSW] Demon's Slayer (4 days) - 127.500
[NSW] Fire Emblem Warriors: Three Hopes (4 days) - 111.000
[NSW] Monster Hunter Rise + Sunbreak Set (4 days) - 188.000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (4 weeks) - 301.000
 
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