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Media Create Prediction League : June 2022 [FULL RESULTS !! + OVERALL RANKING]

Demon Slayer & Mario Strikers results
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Lelouch0612

Lelouch0612

Staff
[NSW] Mario Strikers: Battle League Football (3 days)

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After a long hiatus, the comeback of the Mario Strikers series was widely overpredicted by our members, around 50000 units too high. Expectations were in line with Mario Golf but it seems like the game performed more in line with past Strikers titles.

Congrats to @MarcoP90 who topped both the units and % error margin rankings with his 57 412 prediction, which is still a 78,4% margin of error. They were very closely followed by @Welfare and @PillFencer.

[NSW] Demon Slayer (4 days)

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The late port of Demon Slayer on Switch raised several questions because of the original lacking performance in Japan. However, it became pretty clear that there was a big underserved audience that were only waiting for the game to be on Switch. As such the game fell very much in line with IB's expectations, only 2000 units below the IB consensus.

Big congrats to both @Deluxury and @VengefulMagus who topped both the units and % error margin rankings with their exceptional 90 060 prediction, only 825 units away from the target which is a 0,9% margin of error. They were very closely followed by @TJTree who had an excellent 1,0% error margin. We had 13 members below 5% of error margin, so big congrats !

Thanks again for the good turnout this month with around 45 members !
 
FEW:3H results
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Lelouch0612

Lelouch0612

Staff
[NSW] Fire Emblem Warriors: Three Hopes (4 days)

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Almost 5 years after the original Fire Emblem Warriors, Three Hopes managed to outsell its predecessor handily, while matching our members expectations. Indeed, the Install Base consensus is merely 1000 units away from the true results. Big congrats to everybody ! :)

Congrats also to @YuriCastro and @Lelouch0612 who topped both the units and % error margin rankings with their excellent 96 500 prediction, same as the median, which is a very small 1,1% margin of error. They were very closely followed by @Chris1964 who was only 1,3% away.

In total, 13 members were below 5% so big congrats to them !
 
Sunbreak & Switch Hardware results
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Lelouch0612

Lelouch0612

Staff
Monster Hunter Rise: Sunbreak Set

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Well, no comment there. The closest were @Malden, @Blue Monty and @Tokuiten (in that order) but everyone was very far off the mark.

Nintendo Switch Hardware (4 weeks)

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We have 5 very close predictors this time, thanks to their 250k estimate (so weekly sales of 62 500 units on average). Huge congrats to @Crjunior35, @Smelly, @Yeshua, @BTB123 and @Ghostsonplanets ! They were less than 400 units off (0,1% error margin)

In total, 24 (!!) members were below 5% so big congrats to them ! Seems like IB is better at predicting hardware than software :p
 
Mid-year results
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Lelouch0612

Lelouch0612

Staff
Mid-year results

As the first half of the year ended, it is time to publish the current overall ranking. As mentionned earlier, we took the top predictor of each month as the reference point. Meaning, the error margin showed below is the difference between your error margin and the #1 error margin.

Over the 5 months predicted, I took the results of the 4 best months. The "removed" month is in Red.

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Big congrats to @PillFencer who is leading the chart. No wins but very well positionned in February, April and June.
@Deluxury is #2 thanks to a constantly good level of predictions. @DarkDetective completes the podium despite forgetting to predict in June.

The IB consensus is very well positionned too, with a sub-10% gap ;) 6 members below 10% is also great.

Congrats everyone and let's shake this chart in the following months, starting in July !

 
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