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Media Create Prediction League : January 2025 [Final Results!]

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MEDIAN

[NSW] Donkey Kong Country: Returns HD (4 days) - 65.342
[NSW+PS4] Tales of Graces f Remastered (3 days) - 39.000
[PS5] Dynasty Warriors: Origin (3 days) - 55.000
[PS5] PS5 hardware (5 weeks) - 75.000
[NSW] Switch hardware (5 weeks) - 240.000

Data for full 2024 predictions will come later but the important thing is that MEDIAN is on average better than 60-75% of the other posters prediction for any monthly thread and that only a few posters are better than MEDIAN on an annual basis.
 
Horrible start

Ps5 47k
Nsw 110k

4 weeks left.

Avg of 10k per week for ps5 and 40k per week for nsw would mean

85k-90k PS5
265k-275k NSW
 
Software results
  • Index
    • Donkey Kong Country: Returns HD (NSW)

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    The rererelease of Donkey Kong Country: Returns came well above IB expectations. In fact, it was above all predictions. As a result, the error margin of the IB consensus is a big 38,9%.

    Congrats to @Nocturnal at #1 with their good 95.000 units prediction. They were closely followed by @AruanaRiva at #2 and then @ESCK Swiss / Yomi at #3. In total, only 4 members were below 20% of error margin so huge congrats to them!

    Tales of Graces f (PS5/NSW)

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    The latest Tales Of remaster came a little bit above IB expectations despite overall low numbers. As a result, the error margin of the IB consensus is a very good 5,7%.

    Congrats to @Isa Candygard and @MarcoP90, both at #1 with their exceptional 41.200 units prediction. They were very closely followed by @GaiusBaltar25 at #3. The podium was below 1% of error margin. In total, 33 (!!) members were below 20% of error margin so huge congrats to them!

    Dynasty Warriors: Origins (PS5)

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    The reboot of the long-running Dynasty Warriors franchise came above IB expectations. As a result, the error margin of the IB consensus is 13,8%.

    Congrats to @GaiusBaltar25, @brutaka3 and @Astrogamer all tied at #1 with their excellent 61.000 units prediction. In total, 24 members were below 20% of error margin so huge congrats to them!
     
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  • Index
    • Hardware results
  • Index
    • Playstation 5 hardware

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    Playstation 5 came well above IB expectations. As a result, the error margin of the IB consensus is 20,6%.

    Congrats to @Eren Jaeger and @Iraiza tied at #1 with their great 90.000 units prediction, @Ystad was right behind at #3. In total, 19 member were below 20% of error margin so huge congrats to them!

    Switch hardware

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    Just like the PS5, Switch came well above IB expectations in December. As a result, the error margin of the IB consensus is 21,6%.

    Congrats to @Tbone5189 at #1, with his excellent 299.000 units prediction, @GaiusBaltar25 (again!) is at #2 with @Smelly closing the podium. In total, 19 members were below 20% of error margin so huge congrats to them!
     
  • Index
    • Final results
  • Index
    • zHhzFJU.png

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    Congrats to @GaiusBaltar25 for being the top predictor of the month, this was pretty much a homerun! @tolkir at #2 and @Bruno MB at #3 round up the podium very nicely. Huge congrats to them!

    Overall the IB consensus had a great performance, at #13 for the month, with a 20,1% error margin on average. Members predictions were great this month with everyone between 10% and 37% of error margin on average.

    Thanks & congrats everyone ! :D
     
  • Index
    • Ufff final ranking at 26 is brutal low.T_T
     
    Lelouch0612 said:
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    Congrats to @GaiusBaltar25 for being the top predictor of the month, this was pretty much a homerun! @tolkir at #2 and @Bruno MB at #3 round up the podium very nicely. Huge congrats to them!

    Overall the IB consensus had a great performance, at #13 for the month, with a 20,1% error margin on average. Members predictions were great this month with everyone between 10% and 37% of error margin on average.

    Thanks & congrats everyone ! :D
    Click to expand...
    O God, i did terrible
     
    Just missed the podium... but still... I think this is my best Media Create prediction placement.
     
    Just under the top 10, only 393 copies from Tales of grace. Expected DK to sell well with good legs but a 107K start was great. Glad to see PS5 almost cross 100K. Dynasty warriors locked for at lest 100K physical which is great!
     
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