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Media Create Prediction League : January 2024 [Final results!]

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Lelouch0612

Lelouch0612

Staff
Archivist Genius Staff
Hello everyone !

While we are still waiting on the final results of December, it is now time to open the January edition of the Prediction League !

We are aiming to host this prediction contest every month, when the release schedule allows it.

The rules are simple, you can make and edit your prediction on the following titles until January 7th 22:59 CEST which basically means that as soon the COMG orders chart is updated, you can no longer change your prediction. So don't edit your post after that deadline.

At the end of the month, the results will be shared and the predictors will be ranked by units and %mean error. This is now the fourth yearly edition of this contest.

The tracked period will be January 1st to January 28th (4 weeks). I also ask you to respect the following formatting :

[Platform] Full name of the game (number of days accounted) : 100 000

Now let's get things started with the January Edition of the Media Create Prediction League !

[PS5] Tekken 8 (3 days) -
[PS5] Like a Dragon 8: Infinite Wealth (3 days) -
[PS4] Like a Dragon 8: Infinite Wealth (3 days) -
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (28 days) -
[PS5] PS5 hardware (28 days) -

New to this year's edition, the top predictors will be rewarded by the following betting coins:
  • 1st - 300 coins
  • 2nd - 200 coins
  • 3rd - 150 coins
  • 4th/5th - 100 coins
  • 6th to 10th - 50 coins
 
(warning: do not use my prediction numbers for inspiration lol)

[PS5] Tekken 8 (3 days) - 43.000
[PS5] Like a Dragon 8: Infinite Wealth (3 days) - 65.000
[PS4] Like a Dragon 8: Infinite Wealth (3 days) - 62.000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (28 days) - 250.000
[PS5] PS5 hardware (28 days) - 150.000

Will most likely change all these numbers, but just in case I forget about the league :>
 
[PS5] Tekken 8 (3 days) - 39999
[PS5] Like a Dragon 8: Infinite Wealth (3 days) - 69999
[PS4] Like a Dragon 8: Infinite Wealth (3 days) - 69999
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (28 days) - 299999
[PS5] PS5 hardware (28 days) - 164999
 
[PS5] Tekken 8 (3 days) - 66.666
[PS5] Like a Dragon 8: Infinite Wealth (3 days) - 66.666
[PS4] Like a Dragon 8: Infinite Wealth (3 days) - 33.333
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (28 days) - 280.000
[PS5] PS5 hardware (28 days) - 195.000
 
[PS5] Tekken 8 (3 days) : 35 000
[PS5] Like a Dragon 8: Infinite Wealth (3 days) : 80 000
[PS4] Like a Dragon 8: Infinite Wealth (3 days) : 70 000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (28 days) : 200 000
[PS5] PS5 hardware (28 days) : 120 000
 
[PS5] Tekken 8 (3 days) - 47 000
[PS5] Like a Dragon 8: Infinite Wealth (3 days) - 112 000
[PS4] Like a Dragon 8: Infinite Wealth (3 days) - 100 000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (28 days) - 260 000
[PS5] PS5 hardware (28 days) - 200 000
 
[PS5] Tekken 8 (3 days) - 29 000
[PS5] Like a Dragon 8: Infinite Wealth (3 days) - 59 000
[PS4] Like a Dragon 8: Infinite Wealth (3 days) - 59 000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (28 days) - 255 000
[PS5] PS5 hardware (28 days) - 160 000
 
[PS5] Tekken 8 (3 days) - 62.000
[PS5] Like a Dragon 8: Infinite Wealth (3 days) - 73.000
[PS4] Like a Dragon 8: Infinite Wealth (3 days) - 38.000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (28 days) - 200.000
[PS5] PS5 hardware (28 days) - 155.000
 
[PS5] Tekken 8 (3 days) - 40.000
[PS5] Like a Dragon 8: Infinite Wealth (3 days) - 55.000
[PS4] Like a Dragon 8: Infinite Wealth (3 days) - 35.000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (28 days) - 225.000
[PS5] PS5 hardware (28 days) - 148.000
 
[PS5] Tekken 8 (3 days) - 43 000
[PS5] Like a Dragon 8: Infinite Wealth (3 days) - 110 000
[PS4] Like a Dragon 8: Infinite Wealth (3 days) - 109 000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (28 days) - 230 000
[PS5] PS5 hardware (28 days) - 210 000
 
[PS5] Tekken 8 (3 days) - 51.000
[PS5] Like a Dragon 8: Infinite Wealth (3 days) - 67.000
[PS4] Like a Dragon 8: Infinite Wealth (3 days) - 44.000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (28 days) - 239.000
[PS5] PS5 hardware (28 days) - 162.000
 
I feel that I won't do so good this month. But here I go:

[PS5] Tekken 8 (3 days) - 33 000
[PS5] Like a Dragon 8: Infinite Wealth (3 days) - 85 000
[PS4] Like a Dragon 8: Infinite Wealth (3 days) - 77 000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (28 days) - 230 000
[PS5] PS5 hardware (28 days) -150 000
 
Last edited:
[PS5] Tekken 8 (3 days) - 46 764
[PS5] Like a Dragon 8: Infinite Wealth (3 days) - 89 998
[PS4] Like a Dragon 8: Infinite Wealth (3 days) - 67 276
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (28 days) - 214 412
[PS5] PS5 hardware (28 days) - 150 051

BONUS:
[XBS] Xbox Series hardware (28 days) - 15 751
 
Last edited:
[PS5] Tekken 8 (3 days) - 45 000
[PS5] Like a Dragon 8: Infinite Wealth (3 days) - 80 000
[PS4] Like a Dragon 8: Infinite Wealth (3 days) - 60 000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (28 days) - 245 000
[PS5] PS5 hardware (28 days) - 160 000
 
Last edited:
[PS5] Tekken 8 (3 days) - 42 000
[PS5] Like a Dragon 8: Infinite Wealth (3 days) - 88 000
[PS4] Like a Dragon 8: Infinite Wealth (3 days) - 46 000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (28 days) - 212 000
[PS5] PS5 hardware (28 days) - 155 000
 
[PS5] Tekken 8 (3 days) - 40 000
[PS5] Like a Dragon 8: Infinite Wealth (3 days) - 90 000
[PS4] Like a Dragon 8: Infinite Wealth (3 days) - 30 000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (28 days) - 250 000
[PS5] PS5 hardware (28 days) - 150 000
 
[PS5] Tekken 8 (3 days) - 44.000
[PS5] Like a Dragon 8: Infinite Wealth (3 days) - 95.000
[PS4] Like a Dragon 8: Infinite Wealth (3 days) - 40.000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (28 days) - 230.000
[PS5] PS5 hardware (28 days) - 130.000
 
Last edited:
[PS5] Tekken 8 (3 days) - 47 000
[PS5] Like a Dragon 8: Infinite Wealth (3 days) - 132 000
[PS4] Like a Dragon 8: Infinite Wealth (3 days) - 78 000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (28 days) - 255 000
[PS5] PS5 hardware (28 days) - 188 000
 
[PS5] Tekken 8 (3 days) - 45.678
[PS5] Like a Dragon 8: Infinite Wealth (3 days) - 79.000
[PS4] Like a Dragon 8: Infinite Wealth (3 days) - 45.678
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (28 days) - 199.000
[PS5] PS5 hardware (28 days) - 169.000
 
[PS5] Tekken 8 (3 days) - 55.000
[PS5] Like a Dragon 8: Infinite Wealth (3 days) - 98.000
[PS4] Like a Dragon 8: Infinite Wealth (3 days) - 35.000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (28 days) - 240.000
[PS5] PS5 hardware (28 days) - 160.000
 
A new year begins and with that, new possibilities to fail prediction numbers... xD...

[PS5] Tekken 8 (3 days) - 52.000
[PS5] Like a Dragon 8: Infinite Wealth (3 days) - 83.200
[PS4] Like a Dragon 8: Infinite Wealth (3 days) - 63.400
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (28 days) - 233.000
[PS5] PS5 hardware (28 days) - 164.000
 
[PS5] Tekken 8 (3 days) - 45 000
[PS5] Like a Dragon 8: Infinite Wealth (3 days) - 90 000
[PS4] Like a Dragon 8: Infinite Wealth (3 days) - 45 000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (28 days) - 200 000
[PS5] PS5 hardware (28 days) - 135 000
 
Last edited:
[PS5] Tekken 8 (3 days) - 48.000
[PS5] Like a Dragon 8: Infinite Wealth (3 days) - 91.000
[PS4] Like a Dragon 8: Infinite Wealth (3 days) - 49.000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch Hardware (28 days) - 220.000
[PS5] PS5 Hardware (28 days) - 157.000
 
[PS5] Tekken 8 (3 days) - 46 000
[PS5] Like a Dragon 8: Infinite Wealth (3 days) - 88 000
[PS4] Like a Dragon 8: Infinite Wealth (3 days) - 64 000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (28 days) - 205 000
[PS5] PS5 hardware (28 days) - 160 000
 
[PS5] Tekken 8 (3 days) - 43.210
[PS5] Like a Dragon 8: Infinite Wealth (3 days) - 78.900
[PS4] Like a Dragon 8: Infinite Wealth (3 days) - 76.000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (28 days) - 321.000
[PS5] PS5 hardware (28 days) - 99.999
 
[PS5] Tekken 8 (3 days) - 45 000
[PS5] Like a Dragon 8: Infinite Wealth (3 days) - 55 000
[PS4] Like a Dragon 8: Infinite Wealth (3 days) - 35 000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (28 days) - 180 000
[PS5] PS5 hardware (28 days) - 160 000
 
[PS5] Tekken 8 (3 days) - 38,000
[PS5] Like a Dragon 8: Infinite Wealth (3 days) - 76,000
[PS4] Like a Dragon 8: Infinite Wealth (3 days) - 47,000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (28 days) - 215,000
[PS5] PS5 hardware (28 days) - 154,000
 
[PS5] Tekken 8 (3 days) - 50,000
[PS5] Like a Dragon 8: Infinite Wealth (3 days) - 88,000
[PS4] Like a Dragon 8: Infinite Wealth (3 days) - 66,000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (28 days) - 230,000
[PS5] PS5 hardware (28 days) - 170,000
 
[PS5] Tekken 8 (3 days) - 60.000
[PS5] Like a Dragon 8: Infinite Wealth (3 days) - 80.000
[PS4] Like a Dragon 8: Infinite Wealth (3 days) - 56.000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (28 days) - 275.000
[PS5] PS5 hardware (28 days) - 165.000
 
[PS5] Tekken 8 (3 days) -49,000
[PS5] Like a Dragon 8: Infinite Wealth (3 days) - 92,000
[PS4] Like a Dragon 8: Infinite Wealth (3 days) -54,000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (28 days) -250,000
[PS5] PS5 hardware (28 days) - 145,000
 
[PS5] Tekken 8 (3 days) - 44 000
[PS5] Like a Dragon 8: Infinite Wealth (3 days) - 108 000
[PS4] Like a Dragon 8: Infinite Wealth (3 days) - 72 000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (28 days) - 230 000
[PS5] PS5 hardware (28 days) - 190 000
 
[PS5] Tekken 8 (3 days) - 45.678
[PS5] Like a Dragon 8: Infinite Wealth (3 days) - 109.876
[PS4] Like a Dragon 8: Infinite Wealth (3 days) - 67.890
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (28 days) - 210.987
[PS5] PS5 hardware (28 days) - 123.456
 
[PS5] Tekken 8 (3 days) - 55 000
[PS5] Like a Dragon 8: Infinite Wealth (3 days) - 93 000
[PS4] Like a Dragon 8: Infinite Wealth (3 days) - 70 000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (28 days) - 228 000
[PS5] PS5 hardware (28 days) - 145 000
 
[PS5] Tekken 8 (3 days) - 38.888
[PS5] Like a Dragon 8: Infinite Wealth (3 days) - 134.256
[PS4] Like a Dragon 8: Infinite Wealth (3 days) - 44.111
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (28 days) - 266.666
[PS5] PS5 hardware (28 days) - 111.111
 
[PS5] Tekken 8 (3 days) - 31.000
[PS5] Like a Dragon 8: Infinite Wealth (3 days) - 97.000
[PS4] Like a Dragon 8: Infinite Wealth (3 days) - 71.000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (28 days) - 240.000
[PS5] PS5 hardware (28 days) - 145.000
 
Last edited:
[PS5] Tekken 8 (3 days) - 38.600
[PS5] Like a Dragon 8: Infinite Wealth (3 days) - 85.000
[PS4] Like a Dragon 8: Infinite Wealth (3 days) - 65.000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (28 days) - 220.000
[PS5] PS5 hardware (28 days) - 155.000
 
[PS5] Tekken 8 (3 days) - 22.400
[PS5] Like a Dragon 8: Infinite Wealth (3 days) - 90.200
[PS4] Like a Dragon 8: Infinite Wealth (3 days) - 84.670
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (28 days) - 239.000
[PS5] PS5 hardware (28 days) - 121.000
 
[PS5] Tekken 8 (3 days) - 31.000
[PS5] Like a Dragon 8: Infinite Wealth (3 days) - 93.000
[PS4] Like a Dragon 8: Infinite Wealth (3 days) - 85.000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (28 days) - 241.000
[PS5] PS5 hardware (28 days) - 105.000
 
[PS5] Tekken 8 (3 days) - 33.000
[PS5] Like a Dragon 8: Infinite Wealth (3 days) - 100.000
[PS4] Like a Dragon 8: Infinite Wealth (3 days) - 70.000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (28 days) - 212.000
[PS5] PS5 hardware (28 days) - 117.000
 
[PS5] Tekken 8 (3 days) - 60.000
[PS5] Like a Dragon 8: Infinite Wealth (3 days) - 112.000
[PS4] Like a Dragon 8: Infinite Wealth (3 days) - 48.000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (28 days) - 200.000
[PS5] PS5 hardware (28 days) - 180.000
Bonus:
[PS4] PS4 hardware (28 days) - 16.000
[XBS] Xbox Series hardware (28 days) - 10.000
 
[PS5] Tekken 8 (3 days) - 35,000
[PS5] Like a Dragon 8: Infinite Wealth (3 days) - 89,500
[PS4] Like a Dragon 8: Infinite Wealth (3 days) - 51,500
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (28 days) - 229,000
[PS5] PS5 hardware (28 days) - 167,000
 
[PS5] Tekken 8 (3 days) - 41.637
[PS5] Like a Dragon 8: Infinite Wealth (3 days) - 112,098
[PS4] Like a Dragon 8: Infinite Wealth (3 days) - 89,237
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (28 days) - 201,727
[PS5] PS5 hardware (28 days) - 146,247
 
[PS5] Tekken 8 (3 days) - 55.555
[PS5] Like a Dragon 8: Infinite Wealth (3 days) - 111.111
[PS4] Like a Dragon 8: Infinite Wealth (3 days) - 111.111
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (28 days) - 230.000
[PS5] PS5 hardware (28 days) - 166.666
 
Neo_arcadia7 said:
[PS5] Tekken 8 (3 days) - 41.637
[PS5] Like a Dragon 8: Infinite Wealth (3 days) - 112,098
[PS4] Like a Dragon 8: Infinite Wealth (3 days) - 89,237
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (28 days) - 201,727
[PS5] PS5 hardware (28 days) - 146,247
Click to expand...

Hiska-kun said:
[PS5] Tekken 8 (3 days) - 55.555
[PS5] Like a Dragon 8: Infinite Wealth (3 days) - 111.111
[PS4] Like a Dragon 8: Infinite Wealth (3 days) - 111.111
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (28 days) - 230.000
[PS5] PS5 hardware (28 days) - 166.666
Click to expand...
Right on the buzzer ;)
 
First results!
  • Index
    • [PS5] Tekken 8

    dL8w6p6.png


    Tekken 8 came out well below IB expectations and was only overestimated by one member. The error margin of the IB consensus is 58%.

    Congrats to @Straxet with their excellent 29.000 units prediction, @Lelouch0612 and @brutaka3 are tied at #2. In total, only 5 members were below 20% of error margin.

    [PS5] Yakuza 8

    UVw3lrB.png


    Yakuza (PS5) came out above IB expectations. This is another great result for the franchise after Gaiden last November. With around 103.000 units sold at launch, the error margin of the IB consensus is this time 14,5%.

    Congrats to @Astral_lion02 with their excellent 100.000 units prediction, @Aleh and @Iraiza are also close and round up the podium very nicely. In total, 13 members were below 10% of error margin, congrats to them !

    [PS4] Yakuza 8

    bID3IMo.png


    Yakuza (PS4) came out above IB expectations too. This is another great result for the franchise after Gaiden last November. With around 77.000 units sold at launch, the error margin of the IB consensus is this time 18,7%.

    Congrats to @Crjunior35 with their exceptional 77.000 units prediction, @AruanaRiva and @Tbone5189 are also very close and round up the podium very nicely. In total, 10 members were below 10% of error margin, congrats to them !
     
  • Index
    • Hardware results
  • Index
    • Nintendo Switch Hardware

    yzRr0xB.png


    The Switch came out a bit above IB expectations and there were several great predictions. As a result, the error margin of the IB consensus is only 4,7%.

    Congrats to @brutaka3 with their exceptional 241.000 units prediction, @Lelouch0612 and @Aleh are tied at #2. In total, 24 members (!!) were below 10% of error margin, big congrats to us and IB overall ! :D

    PS5 Hardware

    w4r1Zj6.png


    PS5 came out well above IB expectations. This is partly due to the Spider-Man 2 bundle which sold a great amount in January. With around 185.000 units sold at launch, the error margin of the IB consensus is this time 16,4%.

    Congrats to @AruanaRiva with their excellent 188.000 units prediction, @Iraiza and @PS2 are also close and round up the podium very nicely. In total, only 7members were below 10% of error margin.
     
  • Index
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