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Media Create Prediction League : February 2024 [Full Results!]

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[PS5+PS4] Granblue Fantasy: Relink (4 days) - 79,000
[PS5+PS4+NSW] Jujutsu Kaisen (4 days) - 36,000
[PS5+PS4] Persona 3: Reload (3 days) - 144,000
[NSW] Mario + Donkey Kong (3 weeks) - 70,000
[PS5] Final Fantasy VII: Rebirth (4 days) - 325,000
 
[PS5+PS4] Granblue Fantasy: Relink (4 days) - 80.000
[PS5+PS4+NSW] Jujutsu Kaisen (4 days) - 47.000
[PS5+PS4] Persona 3: Reload (3 days) - 129.000
[NSW] Mario + Donkey Kong (3 weeks) - 62.000
[PS5] Final Fantasy VII: Rebirth (4 days) - 339.000
 
[PS5+PS4] Granblue Fantasy: Relink (4 days) - 90.000
[PS5+PS4+NSW] Jujutsu Kaisen (4 days) - 42.000
[PS5+PS4] Persona 3: Reload (3 days) - 75.000
[NSW] Mario + Donkey Kong (3 weeks) - 57.000
[PS5] Final Fantasy VII: Rebirth (4 days) - 222.000
 
[PS5+PS4] Granblue Fantasy: Relink (4 days) - 77.777
[PS5+PS4+NSW] Jujutsu Kaisen (4 days) - 33.234
[PS5+PS4] Persona 3: Reload (3 days) - 156.424
[NSW] Mario + Donkey Kong (3 weeks) - 71.545
[PS5] Final Fantasy VII: Rebirth (4 days) - 410.111
 
[PS5+PS4] Granblue Fantasy: Relink (4 days) - 80 000
[PS5+NSW] Jujutsu Kaisen (4 days) - 25 000
[PS5+PS4] Persona 3: Reload (3 days) - 150 000
[NSW] Mario + Donkey Kong (3 weeks) - 80 000
[PS5] Final Fantasy VII: Rebirth (4 days) - 270 000
 
[PS5+PS4] Granblue Fantasy: Relink (4 days) - 77.777
[PS5+NSW] Jujutsu Kaisen (4 days) - 44.444
[PS5+PS4] Persona 3: Reload (3 days) - 145.555
[NSW] Mario + Donkey Kong (3 weeks) - 66.666
[PS5] Final Fantasy VII: Rebirth (4 days) - 355.555
 
I missed the deadline, but just to laugh at myself later:

[PS5+PS4] Granblue Fantasy: Relink (4 days) - 91,000
[PS5+NSW] Jujutsu Kaisen (4 days) - 48,000
[PS5+PS4] Persona 3: Reload (3 days) - 149,000
[NSW] Mario + Donkey Kong (3 weeks) - 60,000
[PS5] Final Fantasy VII: Rebirth (4 days) - 347,000
 
Pretty bad month for nearly everyone there, all games were overpredicted by almost everyone, except P3R where it was "only" two thirds of the people overpredicting.

And Mario VS DK on the opposite end of the spectrum (massively underpredicted)

Granblue Fantasy Relink
Overpredicted : 43
Underpredicted : 5

Jujutsu Kaisen
Overpredicted : 44
Underpredicted : 4

Persona 3 Reload
Overpredicted : 33
Underpredicted : 15

Mario + DK
Overpredicted : 3
Underpredicted : 45

Final Fantasy VII Rebirth
Overpredicted : 45
Underpredicted : 3


The first three predictors of January are 23rd 25th and 41st this month (I'll see later on if there's some way to do some cumulative rankings across multiple months to check if all of that is completely random or if averaged through multiple months there are some members who emerge as better predictors)
 
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First results!
  • Index
    • [PS5+PS4] Granblue Fantasy Relink

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    The long awaited game from Cugames came out below IB expectations and was only unerestimated by 5 members. Thankfully for the publisher, even if the game didn't do hot in Japan, it looks like the story is completely different in China. The error margin of the IB consensus is a solid 23%.

    Congrats to @kyo2004 with their excellent 72.300 units prediction, @BTB123 and @brutaka3 are tied at #2. In total, only 20 members were below 20% of error margin so huge congrats to them!

    [PS5+NSW] Jujutsu Kaisen: Cursed Clash

    PLpoQ7s.png


    Jujutsu Kaisen also came out below IB expectations. The game has been plagued by a low budget and reviews from critics & fans alike, the error margin of the IB consensus is this time 40,2%.

    Congrats to @Smelly with their excellent 29.999 units prediction, only one unit closer than @BTB123, @Yeshua and @Damage2 which are all tied at #2. In total, 13 members were below 20% of error margin, congrats to them !
     
  • Index
    • Persona, MvDK and FF7Rebirth results !
  • Index
    • [PS5+PS4] Persona 3: Reload

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    The 2024 remake of Persona 3 came out just a bit below IB expectations. Indeed the error margin of the IB consensus is a great 12%.

    Congrats to @Aleh with their excellent 115.000 units prediction, @Richter Belmont is close behind at #2 and @Straxet / @BTB123 are tied at #3. In total, 19 members were below 20% of error margin so huge congrats to them!

    [NSW] Mario vs Donkey Kong

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    The remake of the GBA classic came out well above IB expectations. Its first 3 weeks tally surpassed 100k units at retail, the error margin of the IB consensus is therefore 32,4%.

    Congrats to @Astrogamer with their excellent 101.000 units prediction, right above @Fatih_656, @Eren Jaeger and @Iraiza which are all tied at #2. In total, only 12 members were below 20% of error margin, congrats to them!

    [PS5] Final Fantasy VII Rebirth

    fYy0lPt.png


    The second part of the remake/reimagining of the legendary FFVII came out well below IB expectations. Only 3 members out of 55 underpredicted the title. It is the lower start for a mainline entry, the error margin of the IB consensus is 35,4%.

    Congrats to @Ystad with their great 269.000 units prediction, right above @J-Cat and @Kenka which round up the podium very nicely at #2 and #3. In total, only 11 members were below 20% of error margin, congrats to them !
     
  • Index
    • Full results !
  • Index
    • rqPCirK.png

    CpGkoKp.png


    Congrats to @Smelly for being the top predictor of the month ! @BTB123 at #2 and @J-Cat at #3 round up the podium very nicely. They were the only predictors below 20% error margin.

    Overall the IB consensus was pretty far off, at #13 for the month, with a 29,9% error margin on average.

    Thanks & congrats everyone ! :D
     
  • Index
    • MvsDK just kept selling and selling. Also almost everyone just got caught thinking Rebirth couldn't possibly launch under XVI. Gotta just assume anything PS5 just won't sell as much as you first think.
     
    Lelouch0612 said:
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    CpGkoKp.png


    Congrats to @Smelly for being the top predictor of the month ! @BTB123 at #2 and @J-Cat at #3 round up the podium very nicely. They were the only predictors below 20% error margin.

    Overall the IB consensus was pretty far off, at #13 for the month, with a 29,9% error margin on average.

    Thanks & congrats everyone ! :D
    Click to expand...

    Mamamia. I on top 7 lol. Not a bad month for me wkwkkw.
     
    Worst month ever for me... JJK and FF7 broke me hard... xD

    Oh well... from there it's just only up... xD
     
    Lelouch0612 said:
    rqPCirK.png

    CpGkoKp.png


    Congrats to @Smelly for being the top predictor of the month ! @BTB123 at #2 and @J-Cat at #3 round up the podium very nicely. They were the only predictors below 20% error margin.

    Overall the IB consensus was pretty far off, at #13 for the month, with a 29,9% error margin on average.

    Thanks & congrats everyone ! :D
    Click to expand...
    My predictions weren't that bad ... then came FF7R2. Wait, there's the perfect gif for this:

    63FB24F252EBBCE3ADC7158716321B216CC6DF1A
     
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