• Akira Toriyama passed away

    Let's all commemorate together his legendary work and his impact here

Media Create Prediction League : December 2023 [FINAL RESULTS!]

Reader mode
Lelouch0612

Lelouch0612

Staff
Archivist Genius Staff
Hello everyone !

While we are still waiting on the final results of November, it is now time to open the December edition of the Prediction League !

We are aiming to host this prediction contest every month, when the release schedule allows it.

The rules are simple, you can make and edit your prediction on the following titles until December 10th 22:59 CEST which basically means that as soon the COMG orders chart is updated, you can no longer change your prediction. So don't edit your post after that deadline.

At the end of the month, the results will be shared and the predictors will be ranked by units and %mean error. This is the third yearly edition of this contest already.

The tracked period will be December 4th to December 31st (4 weeks). I also ask you to respect the following formatting :

[Platform] Full name of the game (number of days accounted) : 100 000

Now let's get things started with the December Edition of the Media Create Prediction League !

[NSW] Dragon Quest Monsters 3 (28 days) -
[NSW] Super Mario Bros. Wonder (28 days) -
[NSW] Momotaro Dentetsu World (28 days) -
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (28 days) -
[PS5] PS5 hardware (28 days) -

New to this year's edition, the top predictors will be rewarded by the following betting coins:
  • 1st - 300 coins
  • 2nd - 200 coins
  • 3rd - 150 coins
  • 4th/5th - 100 coins
  • 6th to 10th - 50 coins
 
[NSW] Dragon Quest Monsters 3 (28 days) - 120.000
[NSW] Super Mario Bros. Wonder (28 days) - 320.000
[NSW] Momotaro Dentetsu World (28 days) - 250.000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (28 days) - 370.000
[PS5] PS5 hardware (28 days) - 198.000
 
Last edited:
[NSW] Dragon Quest Monsters 3 (28 days) : 125 000
[NSW] Super Mario Bros. Wonder (28 days) : 275 000
[NSW] Momotaro Dentetsu World (28 days) : 200 000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (28 days) : 400 000
[PS5] PS5 hardware (28 days) : 200 000
 
[NSW] Dragon Quest Monsters 3 (28 days) : 150 000
[NSW] Super Mario Bros. Wonder (28 days) : 250 000
[NSW] Momotaro Dentetsu World (28 days) : 200 000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (28 days) : 350 000
[PS5] PS5 hardware (28 days) : 200 000
 
[NSW] Dragon Quest Monsters 3 (28 days) - 110.000
[NSW] Super Mario Bros. Wonder (28 days) - 270.000
[NSW] Momotaro Dentetsu World (28 days) - 610.000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (28 days) - 390.000
[PS5] PS5 hardware (28 days) - 230.000
 
[NSW] Dragon Quest Monsters 3 (28 days) - 125.000
[NSW] Super Mario Bros. Wonder (28 days) - 254.000
[NSW] Momotaro Dentetsu World (28 days) - 290.000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (28 days) - 340.000
[PS5] PS5 hardware (28 days) - 206.000
 
Last edited:
[NSW] Dragon Quest Monsters 3 (28 days) : 165 000
[NSW] Super Mario Bros. Wonder (28 days) : 315 000
[NSW] Momotaro Dentetsu World (28 days) : 202 000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (28 days) : 345 000
[PS5] PS5 hardware (28 days) : 202 000
 
Last edited:
[NSW] Dragon Quest Monsters 3 (28 days) - 200.000
[NSW] Super Mario Bros. Wonder (28 days) - 265.000
[NSW] Momotaro Dentetsu World (28 days) - 381.000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (28 days) - 365.000
[PS5] PS5 hardware (28 days) - 242.000
 
Last edited:
[NSW] Dragon Quest Monsters 3 (28 days) - 185 581
[NSW] Super Mario Bros. Wonder (28 days) - 326 623
[NSW] Momotaro Dentetsu World (28 days) - 229 922
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (28 days) - 407 704
[PS5] PS5 hardware (28 days) - 222 222

BONUS:
[XBS] Xbox Series X/S hardware (28 days) - 10 101
 
[NSW] Dragon Quest Monsters 3 (28 days) - 137 000
[NSW] Super Mario Bros. Wonder (28 days) - 258 000
[NSW] Momotaro Dentetsu World (28 days) - 207 000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (28 days) - 380 000
[PS5] PS5 hardware (28 days) -170 000
 
[NSW] Dragon Quest Monsters 3 (28 days) - 172.000
[NSW] Super Mario Bros. Wonder (28 days) - 389.000
[NSW] Momotaro Dentetsu World (28 days) - 364.000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (28 days) - 415.000
[PS5] PS5 hardware (28 days) - 226.000
 
[NSW] Dragon Quest Monsters 3 (28 days) - 180.000
[NSW] Super Mario Bros. Wonder (28 days) - 400.000
[NSW] Momotaro Dentetsu World (28 days) - 350.000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (28 days) - 380.000
[PS5] PS5 hardware (28 days) - 250.000
 
Last edited:
[NSW] Dragon Quest Monsters 3 (28 days) - 140.000
[NSW] Super Mario Bros. Wonder (28 days) - 320.000
[NSW] Momotaro Dentetsu World (28 days) - 350.000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (28 days) - 370.000
[PS5] PS5 hardware (28 days) - 200.000
 
[NSW] Dragon Quest Monsters 3 (28 days) - 140 000
[NSW] Super Mario Bros. Wonder (28 days) - 350 000
[NSW] Momotaro Dentetsu World (28 days) - 340 000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (28 days) - 400 000
[PS5] PS5 hardware (28 days) - 220 000
 
[NSW] Dragon Quest Monsters 3 (28 days) - 333.333
[NSW] Super Mario Bros. Wonder (28 days) - 222.222
[NSW] Momotaro Dentetsu World (28 days) - 123.456
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (28 days) - 555.555
[PS5] PS5 hardware (28 days) - 200.500
 
[NSW] Dragon Quest Monsters 3 (28 days) - 242.000
[NSW] Super Mario Bros. Wonder (28 days) - 183.000
[NSW] Momotaro Dentetsu World (28 days) - 215.000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (28 days) - 305.200
[PS5] PS5 hardware (28 days) - 203.400
 
[NSW] Dragon Quest Monsters 3 (28 days) - 140.000
[NSW] Super Mario Bros. Wonder (28 days) - 320.000
[NSW] Momotaro Dentetsu World (28 days) - 300.000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (28 days) - 350.000
[PS5] PS5 hardware (28 days) - 200.000
 
[NSW] Dragon Quest Monsters 3 (28 days) - 180 000
[NSW] Super Mario Bros. Wonder (28 days) - 250 000
[NSW] Momotaro Dentetsu World (28 days) - 240 000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (28 days) - 320 000
[PS5] PS5 hardware (28 days) - 230 000
 
Last edited:
[NSW] Dragon Quest Monsters 3 (28 days) - 111.000
[NSW] Super Mario Bros. Wonder (28 days) - 333.000
[NSW] Momotaro Dentetsu World (28 days) - 169.000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (28 days) - 369.000
[PS5] PS5 hardware (28 days) - 179.000
 
[NSW] Dragon Quest Monsters 3 (28 days) - 169 999
[NSW] Super Mario Bros. Wonder (28 days) - 269 999
[NSW] Momotaro Dentetsu World (28 days) - 289 999
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (28 days) - 349 999
[PS5] PS5 hardware (28 days) - 174 999
 
[NSW] Dragon Quest Monsters 3 (28 days) - 130.000
[NSW] Super Mario Bros. Wonder (28 days) - 310.000
[NSW] Momotaro Dentetsu World (28 days) - 300.000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (28 days) - 320.000
[PS5] PS5 hardware (28 days) - 170.000
 
[NSW] Dragon Quest Monsters 3 (28 days) - 140.000
[NSW] Super Mario Bros. Wonder (28 days) - 225.000
[NSW] Momotaro Dentetsu World (28 days) - 330.000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (28 days) - 335.000
[PS5] PS5 hardware (28 days) - 220.000
 
[NSW] Dragon Quest Monsters 3 (28 days) - 137 000
[NSW] Super Mario Bros. Wonder (28 days) - 290 000
[NSW] Momotaro Dentetsu World (28 days) - 260 000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (28 days) - 335 000
[PS5] PS5 hardware (28 days) - 205 000
 
[NSW] Dragon Quest Monsters 3 (28 days) - 175 000
[NSW] Super Mario Bros. Wonder (28 days) - 300 000
[NSW] Momotaro Dentetsu World (28 days) - 210 000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (28 days) - 375 000
[PS5] PS5 hardware (28 days) - 225 000
 
[NSW] Dragon Quest Monsters 3 (28 days) - 177.777
[NSW] Super Mario Bros. Wonder (28 days) - 421.000
[NSW] Momotaro Dentetsu World (28 days) - 333.333
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (28 days) - 417.714
[PS5] PS5 hardware (28 days) - 232.232
 
Last edited:
[NSW] Dragon Quest Monsters 3 (28 days) - 139.235
[NSW] Super Mario Bros. Wonder (28 days) - 305.242
[NSW] Momotaro Dentetsu World (28 days) - 294.523
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (28 days) - 384.623
[PS5] PS5 hardware (28 days) - 243.754
 
[NSW] Dragon Quest Monsters 3 (28 days) - 250.000
[NSW] Super Mario Bros. Wonder (28 days) - 500.000
[NSW] Momotaro Dentetsu World (28 days) - 300.000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (28 days) - 500.000
[PS5] PS5 hardware (28 days) - 200.000
 
[NSW] Dragon Quest Monsters 3 (28 days) - 200.000
[NSW] Super Mario Bros. Wonder (28 days) - 390.000
[NSW] Momotaro Dentetsu World (28 days) - 220.000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (28 days) - 380.000
[PS5] PS5 hardware (28 days) - 235.000
 
[NSW] Dragon Quest Monsters 3 (28 days) - 175,000
[NSW] Super Mario Bros. Wonder (28 days) - 265,000
[NSW] Momotaro Dentetsu World (28 days) - 280,000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (28 days) -390,000
[PS5] PS5 hardware (28 days) - 195,000
 
[NSW] Dragon Quest Monsters 3 (28 days) : 118.000
[NSW] Super Mario Bros. Wonder (28 days) : 246.000
[NSW] Momotaro Dentetsu World (28 days) : 182.000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (28 days) : 313.000
[PS5] PS5 hardware (28 days) : 184.000
 
[NSW] Dragon Quest Monsters 3 (28 days) - 220.000
[NSW] Super Mario Bros. Wonder (28 days) - 350.000
[NSW] Momotaro Dentetsu World (28 days) - 310.000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (28 days) - 500.000
[PS5] PS5 hardware (28 days) - 160.000
 
[NSW] Dragon Quest Monsters 3 (28 days) - 122.222
[NSW] Super Mario Bros. Wonder (28 days) - 377.777
[NSW] Momotaro Dentetsu World (28 days) - 299.999
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (28 days) - 399.999
[PS5] PS5 hardware (28 days) - 179.999
 
[NSW] Dragon Quest Monsters 3 (28 days) - 188.888
[NSW] Super Mario Bros. Wonder (28 days) - 422.222
[NSW] Momotaro Dentetsu World (28 days) - 299.999
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (28 days) - 433.333
[PS5] PS5 hardware (28 days) - 222.222
 
Last edited:
[NSW] Dragon Quest Monsters 3 (28 days) - 201.000
[NSW] Super Mario Bros. Wonder (28 days) - 367.000
[NSW] Momotaro Dentetsu World (28 days) - 320.000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (28 days) - 415.000
[PS5] PS5 hardware (28 days) - 191.000
 
[NSW] Dragon Quest Monsters 3 (28 days) - 210.987
[NSW] Super Mario Bros. Wonder (28 days) - 456.789
[NSW] Momotaro Dentetsu World (28 days) - 321.098
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (28 days) - 432.109
[PS5] PS5 hardware (28 days) - 234.567
 
[NSW] Dragon Quest Monsters 3 (28 days) - 200.000
[NSW] Super Mario Bros. Wonder (28 days) - 503.000
[NSW] Momotaro Dentetsu World (28 days) - 324.000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (28 days) - 530.000
[PS5] PS5 hardware (28 days) - 270.000
 
[NSW] Dragon Quest Monsters 3 (28 days) - 215,000
[NSW] Super Mario Bros. Wonder (28 days) - 475,000
[NSW] Momotaro Dentetsu World (28 days) - 345,000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (28 days) - 410,000
[PS5] PS5 hardware (28 days) - 250,000
 
[NSW] Dragon Quest Monsters 3 (28 days) - 199,000
[NSW] Super Mario Bros. Wonder (28 days) - 500,000
[NSW] Momotaro Dentetsu World (28 days) - 515,000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (28 days) - 390,000
[PS5] PS5 hardware (28 days) - 210,000
 
AruanaRiva said:
[NSW] Dragon Quest Monsters 3 (28 days) - 199,000
[NSW] Super Mario Bros. Wonder (28 days) - 500,000
[NSW] Momotaro Dentetsu World (28 days) - 515,000
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (28 days) - 390,000
[PS5] PS5 hardware (28 days) - 210,000
Click to expand...
You were to late unfortunately. Already closed 12 hours earlier.
 
December results (Dec 4 - Dec 31)

[NSW] Dragon Quest Monsters: The Dark Prince # <RPG> (Square Enix) {2023.12.01} (¥6.980) – 163.894
[NSW] Super Mario Bros. Wonder <ACT> (Nintendo) {2023.10.20} (¥5.980) – 398.890
[NSW] Momotaro Dentetsu World: Chikyuu wa Kibou de Mawatteru! <TBL> (Konami) {2023.11.16} (¥6.300) – 317.725
[NSW] Hardware - 356.285
[PS5] Hardware - 168.425
 
Lelouch0612 said:
December results (Dec 4 - Dec 31)

[NSW] Dragon Quest Monsters: The Dark Prince # <RPG> (Square Enix) {2023.12.01} (¥6.980) – 163.894
[NSW] Super Mario Bros. Wonder <ACT> (Nintendo) {2023.10.20} (¥5.980) – 398.890
[NSW] Momotaro Dentetsu World: Chikyuu wa Kibou de Mawatteru! <TBL> (Konami) {2023.11.16} (¥6.300) – 317.725
[NSW] Hardware - 356.285
[PS5] Hardware - 168.425
Click to expand...
LOL, that's gonna be last place for me :D
 
Tokuiten said:
LOL, that's gonna be last place for me :D
Click to expand...
It is 50/50 for my feelings. My HW Switch-prediction was 350.000 to 356.285, DQM3 was 150.000 to 168.425. PS5 being 200.000 to 168.425 isn‘t good but it‘s not horrible either. However 250.000 to 398.890 for SMBW and 200.000 to 317.725 for Momotaro are frightening.
 
Lelouch0612 said:
December results (Dec 4 - Dec 31)

[NSW] Dragon Quest Monsters: The Dark Prince # <RPG> (Square Enix) {2023.12.01} (¥6.980) – 163.894
[NSW] Super Mario Bros. Wonder <ACT> (Nintendo) {2023.10.20} (¥5.980) – 398.890
[NSW] Momotaro Dentetsu World: Chikyuu wa Kibou de Mawatteru! <TBL> (Konami) {2023.11.16} (¥6.300) – 317.725
[NSW] Hardware - 356.285
[PS5] Hardware - 168.425
Click to expand...

IB average predictions*

[NSW] Dragon Quest Monsters: The Dark Prince # <RPG> (Square Enix) {2023.12.01} (¥6.980) – 170.324
[NSW] Super Mario Bros. Wonder <ACT> (Nintendo) {2023.10.20} (¥5.980) – 322.937
[NSW] Momotaro Dentetsu World: Chikyuu wa Kibou de Mawatteru! <TBL> (Konami) {2023.11.16} (¥6.300) – 283.716
[NSW] Hardware - 389.801
[PS5] Hardware - 209.526

*removing the two most extreme predictions

The ratio of over/underprediction is not too bad except for PS5 which was overpredicted by everyone except 1 person and Super Mario Wonder which was underpedicted by more than 4 people out of 5
 
Last edited:
First results!
  • Index
    • Dragon Quest Monsters 3 (28 days)

    U4SKcsB.png


    Plagued by stock issues, DQM3 came out a bit below IB expectations. This is good rebound for Dragon Quest spin-offs. With around 164.000 units over the last 4 weeks of December, the error margin of the IB consensus is a very good 4,9%.

    Congrats to @Malden with their excellent 165.000 units prediction, @Smelly and @Rellik are rounding up the podium at #2 and #3 very nicely. In total, only 8 members were below 10% of error margin.

    Super Mario Bros. Wonder (28 days)

    cWXrohv.png


    With an average of 100k units sold per week, Mario Wonder soared well past IB expectations

    Congrats to @BTB123 with their excellent 400.000 units prediction, @Astral_lion02 and @Rellik (again) are rounding up the podium at #2 and #3 very nicely. In total, only 7 members were below 10% of error margin.

    Momotaro Densetsu: World (28 days)

    Bvc71Ps.png


    A lot of range in terms of IB predictions from Momotaro, with some around 100k and others closer to 600k. Overall the game sold 5,6% above the IB consensus with around 318.000 units.

    Congrats to @brutaka3 with their excellent 320.000 units prediction, @Chris1964 and @Lelouch0612 are rounding up the podium at #2 and #3 very nicely. In total, 16 members were below 10% of error margin.
     
  • Index
    • Hardware results
  • Index
    • Nintendo Switch Hardware (28 days)

    AK6SpDe.png


    Switch hardware came a bit below expectations, with an average of less than 90K/week whereas the IB consensus banked on a 95K/week average. IB consensus is therefore 6,7% too high.

    Congrats to @Bodokoh, @Maluigi and @Smelly which are all tied at #1 with their excellent 350.000 units prediction. In total, 18 members were below 10% of error margin.

    PS5 hardware (28 days)

    8s8zC4f.png



    Another underperformance for hardware vs IB expectations, with an average of only 42K/week whereas the IB consensus was above 50K/week. Overall the IB consensus was 20,8% too high.

    Congrats to @Crjunior35 and @Richter Belmont with their excellent 170.000 units prediction, @Smelly (again!) is rounding up the podium at #3 very nicely. In total, only 7 members were below 10% of error margin.
     
  • Index
    • Reader mode
    You must log in or register to reply here.
    Back
    Top Bottom