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Media Create Prediction League : December 2022 [FULL RESULTS!]

Hello everyone !

While we are still waiting on the final results of November, it is time to open the December edition of the Prediction League !

We are aiming to host this prediction contest every month, when the release schedule allows it. The rules are simple, you can make and edit your prediction on the following titles until December 4th 22:59 CEST which basically means that as soon the COMG orders chart is updated, you can no longer change your prediction. So don't edit your post after that deadline.

At the end of the month, the results will be shared and the predictors will be ranked by units and %mean error. This is the second yearly edition of this contest already.

The tracked period will be November 28th to January 1st (5 weeks). I also ask you to respect the following formatting :

[Platform] Full name of the game (number of days accounted) : 100 000

Now let's get things started with the December edition of the Media Create Prediction League !

[NSW] Mario + Rabbids: Sparks of Hope (3 days) -
[NSW] Dragon Quest Treasures (3 days) -
[NSW+PS4+PS5] Crisis Core: Final Fantasy VII Reunion (5 days) -
[NSW] Pokémon Scarlet & Violet (35 days) -
[NSW] Switch Hardware (35 days) -

Sorry for creating the thread a bit later than usual !

If you have any remarks or suggestions, don't hesitate to share !

Media Create Prediction League : January 2022
Media Create Prediction League : February 2022
Media Create Prediction League : March 2022
 
[NSW] Mario + Rabbids: Sparks of Hope (3 days) - 23.222
[NSW] Dragon Quest Treasures (3 days) - 100.821
[NSW+PS4+PS5] Crisis Core: Final Fantasy VII Reunion (5 days) - 192.828
[NSW] Pokémon Scarlet & Violet (35 days) - 1.329.137
[NSW] Switch Hardware (35 days) - 928.645
 
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[NSW] Mario + Rabbids: Sparks of Hope (3 days) - 77.777
[NSW] Dragon Quest Treasures (3 days) - 99.000
[NSW+PS4+PS5] Crisis Core: Final Fantasy VII Reunion (5 days) - 189.000
[NSW] Pokémon Scarlet & Violet (35 days) - 1.666.666
[NSW] Switch Hardware (35 days) - 1.121.212
 
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[NSW] Mario + Rabbids: Sparks of Hope (3 days) - 36.000
[NSW] Dragon Quest Treasures (3 days) - 97.000
[NSW+PS4+PS5] Crisis Core: Final Fantasy VII Reunion (5 days) - 130.000
[NSW] Pokémon Scarlet & Violet (35 days) - 1.330.000
[NSW] Switch Hardware (35 days) - 970.000
 
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[NSW] Mario + Rabbids: Sparks of Hope (3 days) : 60 000
[NSW] Dragon Quest Treasures (3 days) : 150 000
[NSW+PS4+PS5] Crisis Core: Final Fantasy VII Reunion (5 days) : 90 000
[NSW] Pokémon Scarlet & Violet (35 days) : 1 500 000
[NSW] Switch Hardware (35 days) : 1 000 000
 
[NSW] Mario + Rabbids: Sparks of Hope (3 days) - 37.900
[NSW] Dragon Quest Treasures (3 days) - 124.060
[NSW+PS4+PS5] Crisis Core: Final Fantasy VII Reunion (5 days) - 187.700
[NSW] Pokémon Scarlet & Violet (35 days) - 1.606.000
[NSW] Switch Hardware (35 days) - 1.027.003
 
[NSW] Mario + Rabbids: Sparks of Hope (3 days) - 47.000
[NSW] Dragon Quest Treasures (3 days) - 111.000
[NSW+PS4+PS5] Crisis Core: Final Fantasy VII Reunion (5 days) - 173.000
[NSW] Pokémon Scarlet & Violet (35 days) - 1.389.000
[NSW] Switch Hardware (35 days) - 964.000
 
[NSW] Mario + Rabbids: Sparks of Hope (3 days) - 32.000
[NSW] Dragon Quest Treasures (3 days) - 121.000
[NSW+PS4+PS5] Crisis Core: Final Fantasy VII Reunion (5 days) - 130.000
[NSW] Pokémon Scarlet & Violet (35 days) - 1.519.000
[NSW] Switch Hardware (35 days) - 950.000
 
[NSW] Mario + Rabbids: Sparks of Hope (3 days) - 55.000
[NSW] Dragon Quest Treasures (3 days) - 99.999
[NSW+PS4+PS5] Crisis Core: Final Fantasy VII Reunion (5 days) - 80.000
[NSW] Pokémon Scarlet & Violet (35 days) - 1.400.000
[NSW] Switch Hardware (35 days) - 1.000.001
 
[NSW] Mario + Rabbids: Sparks of Hope (3 days) - 62.000
[NSW] Dragon Quest Treasures (3 days) - 105.000
[NSW+PS4+PS5] Crisis Core: Final Fantasy VII Reunion (5 days) - 125.000
[NSW] Pokémon Scarlet & Violet (35 days) - 1.500.000
[NSW] Switch Hardware (35 days) - 920.000
 
[NSW] Mario + Rabbids: Sparks of Hope (3 days) - 33.000
[NSW] Dragon Quest Treasures (3 days) - 120.000
[NSW+PS4+PS5] Crisis Core: Final Fantasy VII Reunion (5 days) - 115.000
[NSW] Pokémon Scarlet & Violet (35 days) - 1.340.000
[NSW] Switch Hardware (35 days) - 1.002.000
 
[NSW] Mario + Rabbids: Sparks of Hope (3 days) - 32 000
[NSW] Dragon Quest Treasures (3 days) - 98 000
[NSW+PS4+PS5] Crisis Core: Final Fantasy VII Reunion (5 days) - 130 000
[NSW] Pokémon Scarlet & Violet (35 days) - 1 380 000
[NSW] Switch Hardware (35 days) - 966 000
 
1st Comparison is W3-W7 for pokemonSV


W#: ACNH -- SSBU -- SwSh -- Spla3 -- BDSP -- BlWh --- SV

W3: 423k --- 424k --- 276k -- 302k --- 165k -- 375k
W4: 293k --- 254k --- 202k -- 157k --- 131k -- 232k
W5: 287k --- 267k -- 232k -- 121k --- 117k --- 169k
W6: 284k ---- 63k --- 288k --- 97k ---- 150k --- 82k
W7: 260k ---- 46k --- 244k --- 66k ---- 81k ---- 69k

Totals
1547k ACNH
1242k SwSh
1054k SSBU
927k BW
743k Splat3
644k BDSP

2nd comparison Hardware Week 49/50/51/52/1

2017: 1002k
2018: 1277k
2019: 1236k
2020: 1288k
2021: 966k

A 20% drop from last year would result with 773k. Imo that should be the floor, but not higher than 1200k imo
 
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[NSW] Mario + Rabbids: Sparks of Hope (3 days) - 40.000
[NSW] Dragon Quest Treasures (3 days) - 90.000
[NSW+PS4+PS5] Crisis Core: Final Fantasy VII Reunion (5 days) - 120.000
[NSW] Pokémon Scarlet & Violet (35 days) - 1.375.000
[NSW] Switch Hardware (35 days) - 960.000
 
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[NSW] Mario + Rabbids: Sparks of Hope (3 days) - 23.456
[NSW] Dragon Quest Treasures (3 days) - 123.456
[NSW+PS4+PS5] Crisis Core: Final Fantasy VII Reunion (5 days) - 98.765
[NSW] Pokémon Scarlet & Violet (35 days) - 1.234.567
[NSW] Switch Hardware (35 days) - 890.000
 
[NSW] Mario + Rabbids: Sparks of Hope (3 days) - 55.000
[NSW] Dragon Quest Treasures (3 days) - 115.000
[NSW+PS4+PS5] Crisis Core: Final Fantasy VII Reunion (5 days) - 100.000
[NSW] Pokémon Scarlet & Violet (35 days) - 1.200.000
[NSW] Switch Hardware (35 days) - 900.000
 
[NSW] Mario + Rabbids: Sparks of Hope (3 days) - 42 000
[NSW] Dragon Quest Treasures (3 days) - 110 000
[NSW+PS4+PS5] Crisis Core: Final Fantasy VII Reunion (5 days) - 135 000
[NSW] Pokémon Scarlet & Violet (35 days) - 1 100 000
[NSW] Switch Hardware (35 days) - 1 000 000
 
[NSW] Mario + Rabbids: Sparks of Hope (3 days) - 63.000
[NSW] Dragon Quest Treasures (3 days) - 148.000
[NSW+PS4+PS5] Crisis Core: Final Fantasy VII Reunion (5 days) - 166.000
[NSW] Pokémon Scarlet & Violet (35 days) - 1.340.000
[NSW] Switch Hardware (35 days) - 870.000
 
[NSW] Mario + Rabbids: Sparks of Hope (3 days) - 50.000
[NSW] Dragon Quest Treasures (3 days) - 95.000
[NSW+PS4+PS5] Crisis Core: Final Fantasy VII Reunion (5 days) - 115.000
[NSW] Pokémon Scarlet & Violet (35 days) - 1.300.000
[NSW] Switch Hardware (35 days) - 890.000
 
[NSW] Mario + Rabbids: Sparks of Hope (3 days) - 41.000
[NSW] Dragon Quest Treasures (3 days) - 117.500
[NSW+PS4+PS5] Crisis Core: Final Fantasy VII Reunion (5 days) - 107.000
[NSW] Pokémon Scarlet & Violet (35 days) - 1.240.000
[NSW] Switch Hardware (35 days) - 978.000
 
Oh well... I'm not too confident but here it is:

[NSW] Mario + Rabbids: Sparks of Hope (3 days) - 42 000
[NSW] Dragon Quest Treasures (3 days) - 105 000
[NSW+PS4+PS5] Crisis Core: Final Fantasy VII Reunion (5 days) - 115 000
[NSW] Pokémon Scarlet & Violet (35 days) - 1 250 000
[NSW] Switch Hardware (35 days) - 1 200 000
 
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[NSW] Mario + Rabbids: Sparks of Hope (3 days) - 50 000
[NSW] Dragon Quest Treasures (3 days) - 70 000
[NSW+PS4+PS5] Crisis Core: Final Fantasy VII Reunion (5 days) - 170 000
[NSW] Pokémon Scarlet & Violet (35 days) - 1 240 000
[NSW] Switch Hardware (35 days) - 1 000 000
 
[NSW] Mario + Rabbids: Sparks of Hope (3 days) - 35.000
[NSW] Dragon Quest Treasures (3 days) - 87.000
[NSW+PS4+PS5] Crisis Core: Final Fantasy VII Reunion (5 days) - 100.000
[NSW] Pokémon Scarlet & Violet (35 days) - 999.999
[NSW] Switch Hardware (35 days) - 950.000
 
[NSW] Mario + Rabbids: Sparks of Hope (3 days) - 50.000
[NSW] Dragon Quest Treasures (3 days) - 70.000
[NSW+PS4+PS5] Crisis Core: Final Fantasy VII Reunion (5 days) - 110.000
[NSW] Pokémon Scarlet & Violet (35 days) - 1.350.000
[NSW] Switch Hardware (35 days) - 920.000
 
[NSW] Mario + Rabbids: Sparks of Hope (3 days) - 30.000
[NSW] Dragon Quest Treasures (3 days) - 80.000
[NSW+PS4+PS5] Crisis Core: Final Fantasy VII Reunion (5 days) - 120.000
[NSW] Pokémon Scarlet & Violet (35 days) - 1.250.000
[NSW] Switch Hardware (35 days) - 880.000
 
[NSW] Mario + Rabbids: Sparks of Hope (3 days) - 57,000
[NSW] Dragon Quest Treasures (3 days) - 105,000
[NSW+PS4+PS5] Crisis Core: Final Fantasy VII Reunion (5 days) - 110,000
[NSW] Pokémon Scarlet & Violet (35 days) - 1,650,000
[NSW] Switch Hardware (35 days) - 950,000
 
[NSW] Mario + Rabbids: Sparks of Hope (3 days) - 65.000
[NSW] Dragon Quest Treasures (3 days) - 135.000
[NSW+PS4+PS5] Crisis Core: Final Fantasy VII Reunion (5 days) - 145.000
[NSW] Pokémon Scarlet & Violet (35 days) - 1.400.000
[NSW] Switch Hardware (35 days) - 1.100.100
 
[NSW] Mario + Rabbids: Sparks of Hope (3 days) - 45.678
[NSW] Dragon Quest Treasures (3 days) - 98.765
[NSW+PS4+PS5] Crisis Core: Final Fantasy VII Reunion (5 days) - 123.456
[NSW] Pokémon Scarlet & Violet (35 days) - 1.098.765
[NSW] Switch Hardware (35 days) - 987.654
 
[NSW] Mario + Rabbids: Sparks of Hope (3 days) - 29,750
[NSW] Dragon Quest Treasures (3 days) - 120,380
[NSW+PS4+PS5] Crisis Core: Final Fantasy VII Reunion (5 days) - 97,531
[NSW] Pokémon Scarlet & Violet (35 days) - 1,032,950
[NSW] Switch Hardware (35 days) - 893,628
 
Last edited:
[NSW] Mario + Rabbids: Sparks of Hope (3 days) - 35,000
[NSW] Dragon Quest Treasures (3 days) - 100,000
[NSW+PS4+PS5] Crisis Core: Final Fantasy VII Reunion (5 days) - 150,000
[NSW] Pokémon Scarlet & Violet (35 days) - 1,200,000
[NSW] Switch Hardware (35 days) - 1,050,000
 
[NSW] Mario + Rabbids: Sparks of Hope (3 days) - 28,000
[NSW] Dragon Quest Treasures (3 days) - 109,000
[NSW+PS4+PS5] Crisis Core: Final Fantasy VII Reunion (5 days) - 118,000
[NSW] Pokémon Scarlet & Violet (35 days) - 1,190,000
[NSW] Switch Hardware (35 days) - 960,000
 
[NSW] Mario + Rabbids: Sparks of Hope (3 days) - 55,555
[NSW] Dragon Quest Treasures (3 days) - 111,111
[NSW+PS4+PS5] Crisis Core: Final Fantasy VII Reunion (5 days) - 111,111
[NSW] Pokémon Scarlet & Violet (35 days) - 1,111,111
[NSW] Switch Hardware (35 days) - 1,111,111
 
[NSW] Mario + Rabbids: Sparks of Hope (3 days) - 48,120
[NSW] Dragon Quest Treasures (3 days) - 132,120
[NSW+PS4+PS5] Crisis Core: Final Fantasy VII Reunion (5 days) - 144,120
[NSW] Pokémon Scarlet & Violet (35 days) - 1,200,000
[NSW] Switch Hardware (35 days) - 1,008,120
 
[NSW] Mario + Rabbids: Sparks of Hope (3 days) - 50,000
[NSW] Dragon Quest Treasures (3 days) - 100.000
[NSW+PS4+PS5] Crisis Core: Final Fantasy VII Reunion (5 days) - 120.000
[NSW] Pokémon Scarlet & Violet (35 days) - 1.111.111
[NSW] Switch Hardware (35 days) - 1.000.000
 
[NSW] Mario + Rabbids: Sparks of Hope (3 days) - 31.975
[NSW] Dragon Quest Treasures (3 days) - 111.111
[NSW+PS4+PS5] Crisis Core: Final Fantasy VII Reunion (5 days) - 147.036
[NSW] Pokémon Scarlet & Violet (35 days) - 840.628
[NSW] Switch Hardware (35 days) - 1.000.000
 
[NSW] Mario + Rabbids: Sparks of Hope (3 days) - 24,678
[NSW] Dragon Quest Treasures (3 days) - 101,435
[NSW+PS4+PS5] Crisis Core: Final Fantasy VII Reunion (5 days) - 163,890
[NSW] Pokémon Scarlet & Violet (35 days) - 1,127,026
[NSW] Switch Hardware (35 days) - 1,000,000
 
[NSW] Mario + Rabbids: Sparks of Hope (3 days) - 28,888
[NSW] Dragon Quest Treasures (3 days) - 120.000
[NSW+PS4+PS5] Crisis Core: Final Fantasy VII Reunion (5 days) - 133.000
[NSW] Pokémon Scarlet & Violet (35 days) - 1.212.017
[NSW] Switch Hardware (35 days) - 979.000
 
[NSW] Mario + Rabbids: Sparks of Hope (3 days) - 39.800
[NSW] Dragon Quest Treasures (3 days) - 117.200
[NSW+PS4+PS5] Crisis Core: Final Fantasy VII Reunion (5 days) - 104.900
[NSW] Pokémon Scarlet & Violet (35 days) - 1.131.000
[NSW] Switch Hardware (35 days) - 945.000
 
[NSW] Mario + Rabbids: Sparks of Hope (3 days) - 32.000
[NSW] Dragon Quest Treasures (3 days) - 95.000
[NSW+PS4+PS5] Crisis Core: Final Fantasy VII Reunion (5 days) - 115.000
[NSW] Pokémon Scarlet & Violet (35 days) - 1.100.000
[NSW] Switch Hardware (35 days) - 1.270.422
 
[NSW] Mario + Rabbids: Sparks of Hope (3 days) - 67.000
[NSW] Dragon Quest Treasures (3 days) - 96.000
[NSW+PS4+PS5] Crisis Core: Final Fantasy VII Reunion (5 days) - 152.000
[NSW] Pokémon Scarlet & Violet (35 days) - 938.000
[NSW] Switch Hardware (35 days) - 943.000
 
Not sure if there's still time (CEST is over :p ) but:

[NSW] Mario + Rabbids: Sparks of Hope (3 days) - 42.000
[NSW] Dragon Quest Treasures (3 days) - 101.000
[NSW+PS4+PS5] Crisis Core: Final Fantasy VII Reunion (5 days) - 177.000
[NSW] Pokémon Scarlet & Violet (35 days) - 1.050.800
[NSW] Switch Hardware (35 days) - 900.000
 
Although the time is over. :p
[NSW] Mario + Rabbids: Sparks of Hope (3 days) - 40.000
[NSW] Dragon Quest Treasures (3 days) - 150.000
[NSW+PS4+PS5] Crisis Core: Final Fantasy VII Reunion (5 days) - 100.000
[NSW] Pokémon Scarlet & Violet (35 days) - 1.112.000
[NSW] Switch Hardware (35 days) - 1000.000
 
Damn... 2 days late... but here's my last predictions for this year (hoping 2023 fares for the better for me)... xD

[NSW] Mario + Rabbids: Sparks of Hope (3 days) - 42.500
[NSW] Dragon Quest Treasures (3 days) - 132.400
[NSW+PS4+PS5] Crisis Core: Final Fantasy VII Reunion (5 days) - 112.000
[NSW] Pokémon Scarlet & Violet (35 days) - 1.243.000
[NSW] Switch Hardware (35 days) - 875.000
 
Mario + Rabbids results
Mario + Rabbids Sparks of Hope

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The Install Base consensus was way too high for Mario, around 24.000 units too high, despite the first game performing notably stronger out of the gate. However, as we come to know by now, the game has rebounded pretty nicely.

Congrats to @PillFencer with their 23.222 prediction, followed by @Ystad and @MarcoP90 at #2 and #3. They all were below 40% (yes, this is right) of error margin.
 
Dragon Quest & Final Fantasy
Dragon Quest Treasures

3U5jtUy.png



The Install Base consensus was way too low for Dragon Quest Treasures, around 40.000 units too low, despite being a DQ spin-off. It is true however, that the project always seems off given its development history.

Congrats to @Damage2 with their 148.000 prediction, followed by @Levitate and @Yeshua both at #2. They all were below 5% of error margin.

Crisis Core: Final Fantasy VII Reunion

f11mAPZ.png



The Install Base consensus was too low for Crisis Core too, around 35.000 units too low. The remake/remaster performed notably strong for a FF remaster project.

Congrats to @ktpoison with their 152.000 prediction, followed by @Welfare and @MarcoP90 at #2 and #3. They all were below 5% of error margin.
 
I predicted only 90k for Treasures. Didn't really see it selling that well. Glad it did so well.
 
Pokémon and Switch results
Pokémon Scarlet/Violet

PYPV4EH.png


The Install Base consensus was too low for Pokémon, that held well in December despite a record-breaking launch and softer hardware sales than expected in December. At the end of the day, it was around 140.000 units too low.

Hats off to @ikaben with their jaw dropping 1.380.000 prediction (only 55 units off the mark!!), followed by @BTB123 and @Rellik at #2 and #3. They all were below 1% of error margin so big congrats.

Nintendo Switch Hardware

tXSvJhU.png




It is pretty clear that we were collectively too optimistic about the Switch potential in December. The IB consensus is 210.000 units off, which represents an overestimation of 40.000 units per week. In the end, the biggest week of the year was not in December in 2022, it was during Splatoon 3 launch week (182.000 units).

The three closest were @Damage2, @kyo2004 and @Joxer, in that order.
 
Full results !
RfgEIqH.png

wFB5o3S.png


Congrats to @PillFencer for being the top predictor of the month and to @Ystad and @MarcoP90 who round up the podium very nicely. You denied me the podium but no hard feelings from me. They were all below 25% error margin on average.

It was a difficult month to predict, with many peculiar performances. Overall the IB consensus was 50% off the mark on average and shows how much difficult to predict the Holiday period can be.
 
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