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Media Create Prediction League : August 2022 [CLOSED]

DarkDetective

真実はいつもひとつ! There's only one truth
Staff
Here are the median predictions for August (min <> max):

[PS4+PS5] Soul Hackers 2 (4 days) - 55.500 (27.500 <> 88.000)
[PS4+PS5] Earth Defense Force 6 (4 days) - 70.000 (41.234 <> 100.000)
[NSW+PS4+PS5] SD Gundam Alliance (4 days) - 79.500 (65.000 <> 123.456)
[NSW] Xenoblade Chronicles 3 (28 days) - 72.940 (48.000 <> 102.000)
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (4 weeks) - 300.639 (240.000 <> 357.357)

The most bull-ish predictor of the month is @Tbone5189, expecting no less than 676.243 units sold across all predictions.
The most bear-ish predictor of the month is @Limabean01, expecting only 469.000 units sold across all predictions.


@tolkir's predictions are closest to the median (in terms of %).
@Tbone5189's predictions are farthest away from the median.

Fun fact: @Chris1964, @Hiska-kun, @AruanaRiva, and @Welfare all have a 10,2% deviation from the median prediction, despite not sharing a single predicted number.
 

Fatih_656

I want a Doner kebab
Member
Pronouns
He
[NSW] Xenoblade Chronicles 3 (14 days) - 39.529
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (2 weeks) - 153.822
Here are the median predictions for August (min <> max):
[NSW] Xenoblade Chronicles 3 (28 days) - 72.940 (48.000 <> 102.000)
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (4 weeks) - 300.639 (240.000 <> 357.357)
hardware seems underestimated(Splatoon OLED),
Xenoblade seems overestimated for now
 
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Tbone5189

Member
[NSW] Xenoblade Chronicles 3 (14 days) - 39.529
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (2 weeks) - 153.822

hardware seems underestimated(Splatoon OLED),
Xenoblade seems overestimated for now

XC3 is overestimated, next 2 weeks should be about 10k-15k

NSW hardware is up in the air, next week will be 55k-65k and then OLED week release it can do anywhere between 70k-130k imo. I dunno how many they gonna ship
 

Fatih_656

I want a Doner kebab
Member
Pronouns
He
[NSW] Xenoblade Chronicles 3 (21 days) - 46.243
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (3 weeks) - 212.218
Here are the median predictions for August (min <> max):
[NSW] Xenoblade Chronicles 3 (28 days) - 72.940 (48.000 <> 102.000)
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (4 weeks) - 300.639 (240.000 <> 357.357)
 

Limabean01

Member
Pronouns
any
Here are the median predictions for August (min <> max):

[PS4+PS5] Soul Hackers 2 (4 days) - 55.500 (27.500 <> 88.000)
[PS4+PS5] Earth Defense Force 6 (4 days) - 70.000 (41.234 <> 100.000)
[NSW+PS4+PS5] SD Gundam Alliance (4 days) - 79.500 (65.000 <> 123.456)
[NSW] Xenoblade Chronicles 3 (28 days) - 72.940 (48.000 <> 102.000)
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (4 weeks) - 300.639 (240.000 <> 357.357)

The most bull-ish predictor of the month is @Tbone5189, expecting no less than 676.243 units sold across all predictions.
The most bear-ish predictor of the month is @Limabean01, expecting only 469.000 units sold across all predictions.


@tolkir's predictions are closest to the median (in terms of %).
@Tbone5189's predictions are farthest away from the median.

Fun fact: @Chris1964, @Hiska-kun, @AruanaRiva, and @Welfare all have a 10,2% deviation from the median prediction, despite not sharing a single predicted number.
there was too much optimism in the world. i have manifested as an inverse tbone - a necessary evil to re-establish balance.
 

Fatih_656

I want a Doner kebab
Member
Pronouns
He
There could be a mistake, I did it quickly
Here are the median predictions for August (min <> max):

[PS4+PS5] Soul Hackers 2 (4 days) - 55.500 (27.500 <> 88.000)
[PS4+PS5] Earth Defense Force 6 (4 days) - 70.000 (41.234 <> 100.000)
[NSW+PS4+PS5] SD Gundam Alliance (4 days) - 79.500 (65.000 <> 123.456)
[NSW] Xenoblade Chronicles 3 (28 days) - 72.940 (48.000 <> 102.000)
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (4 weeks) - 300.639 (240.000 <> 357.357)
[PS4+PS5] Soul Hackers 2 (4 days) - 51.861
[PS4+PS5] Earth Defense Force 6 (4 days) - 92.704
[NSW+PS4+PS5] SD Gundam Alliance (4 days) - 66.209
[NSW] Xenoblade Chronicles 3 (28 days) - 49.262
[NSW] Nintendo Switch hardware (4 weeks) - 325.748
 
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The Results
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Lelouch0612

Lelouch0612

Staff
Soul Hackers 2

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The Install Base consensus was very close on this, less than 4.000 units off the mark. It was one of the most talked game over the past months, so everyone was very aware about the projects and its prospects.

Congrats to @BTB123 with their excellent 52.000 prediction, extremely closely followed by @MarcoP90 at #2 and then @mokuroh at #3. All of them were below 2% of error margin ! (and the first 2 were even at 0,3% !).

Earth Defense Force 6

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The Install Base consensus was a fair bit too low on this, around 20.000 units off the mark. The game's performance on PS4 was probably way stronger than expected, as is the fanbase following. Overall the game did even better than our expectations when taking into account digital.

Congrats to @Damage2 at #1 with their 94.000 prediction, they were followed by @PillFencer at #2 and @Bruno MB at #3.

SD Gundam Alliance

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The Install Base consensus was too high for Gungam Alliance, around 13.000 units off the mark. The franchise's pedigree was pointing toward a bigger launch but it seems like the game didn't excite much.

This time we have a trio of winners. Congrats to @Blue Monty, @mokuroh and @Crjunior35 for their excellent 67.000 prediction. All of them had a 1,2% of error margin !

Xenoblade Chronicles 3 (2nd month)

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The Install Base consensus was once again too high for Xenoblade, around 25.000 units off the mark, which is a lot for a 2nd month prediction. Obon probably pushed toward more optimism but even if the 2nd week drop was good for the genre (76%), it seems like Obon didn't help the game much.

Congrats to @Limabean01 with their excellent 48.000 prediction, followed by @PillFencer and @Kenka both tied at #2. All of them were below 2.5% of error margin ! (when everyone else is above 20%).

Nintendo Switch Hardware monthly sales

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The Install Base consensus was once again a bit too conservative for the Switch, around 25.000 units off the mark. The good health of the platform coupled with Splatoon 3's hype, OLED model + Obon pushed it to an excellent 81.500 units in weekly average in its 6th Summer.

Congrats to both @TheSilentWombat and @Astral_lion02 with their excellent 325.000 prediction, they were closely followed by @brutaka3 who rounds up the podium. The error margin on this one was 0,2% (!) for the first two and 1,2% for the 3rd.
 
August chart
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Lelouch0612

Lelouch0612

Staff
unknown.png

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Congrats to the top predictors ! @PillFencer at #1, @Welfare at #2 and @MarcoP90 at #3 !! It was a tough month with some underperformers and overperforms so congrats.

For the others, there is still the opportunity to do better (or worse) with September ;)


Predictions are closing in less than 24h now !
 

BTB123

Can't wait for TotK
Member
A rare win for me with Soul Hackers 2, but everything else except for the hardware I had way off the mark sadly.
 

Tokuiten

Infected with 'Xenoblade'. 御免なさい🙇‍♀️
Member
Oh wow, bad month for, just a mix of way too little here, way too much there. 🙈
 

Spikeylord

Member
Pronouns
He/Him/His
Given how hilariously off I was with most of the numbers this month, I'm happy to have been (as far as I can tell) the 4th closest to the NSW hardware result, only narrowly missing the podium.
 

PillFencer

Meat is murder
Member
Pronouns
they/them
Finally my first monthly win since (the undisclosed) April 2020 😎
 
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Deluxury

Member
Most people are actually very close to the median this time. Rank 34 didn't actually do much more badly than Rank 5, unlike previous months.
 

Arynio

Hatcher
Member
Congrats to the winners. I was sure I participated this month, I even remember writing my predictions. I guess I never posted them? So strange!
 
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