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Media Create Prediction League : April 2022



真実はいつもひとつ! There's only one truth
A bit later than usual, and since Lelouch0612 has laptop troubles, I'm your host this time, but here they are: April 2022's Media Create Prediction League results!

With 48 predictions counted, the attendence was a bit lower in April than in March (59), back to February levels (49).

Let's see how the community performed on average by presenting you the Install Base Consensus (median):
  • Install Base Consensus error by units: 128.154
  • Install Base Consensus error in percent: 14,9%
Being off less than 15 percent on average across 5 predictions (as a community!), I think it's fair to say that this is a great result. I'm proud of everyone! Overall, Kirby and the Forgotten Land underperformed, compared to our expectations (-20% vs consensus), whereas Nintendo Switch Sports showed us that 'casual' games don't live solely off their legs by hitting a launch week home run (+60% vs consensus).

Now, here are the rankings for the best predictors of April 2022 (ranked by %error):



Congratulations to @Joxer for being the best predictor of the month! Aside from your prediction of Kirby and the Forgotten Land's launch week sales, all of your predictions were within a 10% error margin. The deserved #2 spot goes to @Welfare. I'm sure this prediction involved a wall of numbers somewhere. And finally, the bronze medal goes to @YuriCastro, who was the best predictor of the month in terms of Units error.

Thanks to everyone for participating! I'm glad to see that we were as keen as in March, and an extra round of applause for our top 3 predictors of course.

As for new predictions: there's still a couple days left to predict for June, including launch sales for four exciting new releases.

See you there :)
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